Global mapping of infectious disease

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences

Volumn 368, Issue 1614, 2013, Pages

  Hay, Simon I ^a,b   Battle, Katherine E ^a   Pigott, David M ^a   Smith, David L ^b,c   Moyes, Catherine L ^a   Bhatt, Samir ^a   Brownstein, John S ^d   Collier, Nigel ^e   Myers, Monica F ^a   George, Dylan B ^b   Gething, Peter W ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD   (United Kingdom)

^b NATIONAL INSTITUTES OF HEALTH   (United States)

^c JOHNS HOPKINS BLOOMBERG SCHOOL OF PUBLIC HEALTH   (United States)

^d BOSTON CHILDREN S HOSPITAL   (United States)

^e NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF INFORMATICS   (Japan)

Author keywords

Atlas; Biosurveillance; Cartography; Crowdsourcing; Public health; Surveillance

Indexed keywords

ATLAS; CARTOGRAPHY; DISEASE SPREAD; EMERGENCE; GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION; GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE; INFECTIOUS DISEASE; INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY; PUBLIC HEALTH;

BIOLOGY; BIOSURVEILLANCE; COMMUNICABLE DISEASE; CROWDSOURCING; GEOGRAPHIC MAPPING; HEALTH; HUMAN; METHODOLOGY; REVIEW; STATISTICS;

BIOSURVEILLANCE; COMMUNICABLE DISEASES; COMPUTATIONAL BIOLOGY; CROWDSOURCING; GEOGRAPHIC MAPPING; HUMANS; WORLD HEALTH;

MLCS; MLOWN;

EID: 84873470214     PISSN: 09628436     EISSN: 14712970     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2012.0250     Document Type: Review

References (111)

1. Cleaveland S, Laurenson MK, Taylor LH. 2001 Diseases of humans and their domestic mammals: pathogen characteristics, host range and the risk of emergence. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B 356, 991-999. (doi:10.1098/rstb.2001.0889)
2. Taylor LH, Latham SM, Woolhouse ME. 2001 Risk factors for human disease emergence. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B 356, 983-989. (doi:10.1098/ rstb.2001.0888)
3. Woolhouse ME, Gowtage-Sequeria S. 2005 Host range and emerging and reemerging pathogens. Emerg. Infect. Dis. 11, 1842-1847. (doi:10.3201/ eid1112.050997)
4. Global Infectious Diseases and Epidemiology Network (GIDEON). 2011 The world's premier global infectious diseases database. Los Angeles, CA: GIDEON Informatics, Inc. See http://web.gideononline.com/ web/epidemiology.
5. Edberg SC. 2005 Global infectious diseases and epidemiology network (GIDEON): a world wide web-based program for diagnosis and informatics in infectious diseases. Clin. Infect. Dis. 40, 123-126. (doi:10.1086/426549)
6. C.D.C. 2009 CDC Health information for international travel 2010. Atlanta, GA: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
7. Heymann DL. 2008 Control of communicable diseases manual, 19th edn. Washington, DC: American Public Health Association.
8. Hay SI. 2000 An overview of remote sensing and geodesy for epidemiology and public health application. Adv. Parasitol. 47, 1-35. (doi:10.1016/ S0065-308X(00)47005-3)
9. Rogers DJ, Randolph SE, Snow RW, Hay SI. 2002 Satellite imagery in the study and forecast of malaria. Nature 415, 710-715. (doi:10.1038/415710a)
10. Cromley EK, McLafferty SL. 2002 GIS and public health. New York, NY: The Guildford Press.
11. Rogers DJ, Randolph SE. 2003 Studying the global distribution of infectious diseases using GIS and RS. Nat. Rev. Microbiol. 1, 231-237. (doi:10.1038/ nrmicro776)
12. Hay SI, Graham AJ, Rogers DJ. (eds) 2006 Global mapping of infectious diseases: methods, examples and emerging applications. In Advances in parasitology, vol. 62. London, UK: Academic Press.
13. Hay SI, Snow RW. 2006 The malaria atlas project: developing global maps of malaria risk. PLoS Med. 3, e473. (doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.0030473)
14. Riley S. 2007 Large-scale spatial-transmission models of infectious disease. Science 316, 1298-1301. (doi:10.1126/science.1134695)
15. Pfeiffer DU, Robinson TP, Stevenson M, Stevens KB, Rogers DJ, Clements ACA. 2008 Spatial analysis in epidemiology. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.
16. Stevens KB, Pfeiffer DU. 2011 Spatial modelling of disease using data-and knowledge-driven approaches. Spat. Spatio-temporal Epidemiol. 2, 125-133. (doi:10.1016/j.sste.2011.07.007)
17. Hay SI et al. 2009 A world malaria map: Plasmodium falciparum endemicity in 2007. PLoS Med. 6, e1000048. (doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1000048)
18. Gething PW, Patil AP, Smith DL, Guerra CA, Elyazar IR, Johnston GL, Tatem AJ, Hay SI. 2011 A new world malaria map: Plasmodium falciparum endemicity in 2010. Malar. J. 10, 378. (doi:10.1186/ 1475-2875-10-378)
19. Gething PW et al. 2012 A long neglected world malaria map: Plasmodium vivax endemicity in 2010. Public Libr. Sci. Negl. Trop. Dis. 6, e1814.
20. Tatem A, Smith D, Gething P, Kabaria C, Snow R, Hay S. 2010 Ranking elimination feasibility among malaria-endemic countries. Lancet 376, 1579-1591. (doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(10)61301-3)
21. Project Global Health Group at Malaria Atlas. 2011 Atlas of Malaria Eliminating Countries, 2011. San Francisco, CA: The Global Health Group, Global Health Sciences, University of California.
22. WHO. 2010 International travel and health: situation as on 1 January 2010. Geneva, Switzerland: World Health Organization.
23. Fefferman NH, Naumova EN. 2009 Innovation in observation: a vision for early outbreak detection. Emerg. Health Threats J. 3, e6. (doi:10.3134/ehtj.10.006)
24. Brownstein JS, Freifeld CC, Reis BY, Mandl KD. 2008 Surveillance sans frontieres: internet-based emerging infectious disease intelligence and the HealthMap project. PLoS Med. 5, e151. (doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.0050151)
25. Freifeld CC, Mandl KD, Reis BY, Brownstein JS. 2008 HealthMap: global infectious disease monitoring through automated classification and visualization of Internet media reports. J. Am. Med. Inform. Assoc. 15, 150-157. (doi:10.1197/jamia.M2544)
26. Collier N et al. 2008 BioCaster: detecting public health rumors with a Web-based text mining system. Bioinformatics 24, 2940-2941. (doi:10.1093/bioinformatics/btn534)
27. Collier N, Goodwin RM, McCrae J, Doan S, Kawazoe A, Conway M, Kawtrakul A, Takeuchi K, Dien D. 2010 An ontology-driven system for detecting global health events. In Proc. 23rd Int. Conf. on Computational Linguistics, Beijing, China. Association for Computational Linguistics.
28. Torii M, Yin L, Nguyen T, Mazumdar CT, Liu H, Hartley DM, Nelson NP. 2011 An exploratory study of a text classification framework for Internet-based surveillance of emerging epidemics. Int. J. Med. Inf. 80, 56-66. (doi:10.1016/j.ijmedinf.2010.10.015)
29. Hartley DM et al. 2010 The landscape of international event-based biosurveillance. Emerg. Health Threats J. 3, e3. (doi:10.3134/ehtj.10.003)
30. Doherr MG, Audige L. 2001 Monitoring and surveillance for rare health-related events: a review from the veterinary perspective. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B 356, 1097-1106. (doi:10.1098/rstb.2001.0898)
31. Blazes DL, Russell KL. 2011 Joining forces: civilians and the military must cooperate on global disease control. Nature 477, 395-396. (doi:10.1038/477395a)
32. Khan K et al. 2012 Infectious disease surveillance and modelling across geographic frontiers and scientific specialties. Lancet Infect. Dis. 12, 222-230. (doi:10.1016/S1473-3099(11)70313-9)
33. Dobson AP, Carper ER. 1996 Infectious diseases and human population history. Bioscience 46, 115-126. (doi:10.2307/1312814)
34. Wolfe ND, Dunavan CP, Diamond J. 2007 Origins of major human infectious diseases. Nature 447, 279-283. (doi:10.1038/nature05775)
35. Morens DM, Folkers GK, Fauci AS. 2004 The challenge of emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases. Nature 430, 242-249. (doi:10.1038/nature02759)
36. Wolfe ND, Daszak P, Kilpatrick AM, Burke DS. 2005 Bushmeat hunting, deforestation, and prediction of zoonotic disease emergence. Emerg. Infect. Dis. 11, 1822-1827. (doi:10.3201/eid1112.040789)
37. Gayer M, Legros D, Formenty P, Connolly MA. 2007 Conflict and emerging infectious diseases. Emerg. Infect. Dis. 13, 1625-1631. (doi:10.3201/eid1311.061093)
38. Jones KE, Patel NG, Levy MA, Storeygard A, Balk D, Gittleman JL, Daszak P. 2008 Global trends in emerging infectious diseases. Nature 451, 990-993. (doi:10.1038/nature06536)
39. Randolph SE, Rogers DJ. 2010 The arrival, establishment and spread of exotic diseases: patterns and predictions. Nat. Rev. Microbiol. 8, 361-371. (doi:10.1038/nrmicro2336)
40. Woolhouse M. 2011 How to make predictions about future infectious disease risks. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 366, 2045-2054. (doi:10.1098/rstb.2010.0387)
41. Fisher MC, Henk DA, Briggs CJ, Brownstein JS, Madoff LC, McCraw SL, Gurr SJ. 2012 Emerging fungal threats to animal, plant and ecosystem health. Nature 484, 186-194. (doi:10.1038/ nature10947)
42. Cliff AD, Smallman-Raynor MR, Haggett P, Stroup DF, Thacker SB. 2009 Emergence and re-emergence. Infectious diseases. A geographical analysis. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.
43. Guernier V, Hochberg ME, Guegan JF. 2004 Ecology drives the worldwide distribution of human diseases. PLoS Biol. 2, e141. (doi:10.1371/journal. pbio.0020141)
44. Guernier V, Guegan JF. 2009 May Rapoport's rule apply to human associated pathogens? EcoHealth 6, 509-521. (doi:10.1007/s10393-010-0290-5)
45. Smith KF, Guegan J-F. 2010 Changing geograpahic distributions of human pathogens. Annu. Rev. Ecol. Syst. 41, 231-250. (doi:10.1146/annurev-ecolsys-102209-144634)
46. Smith KF, Sax DF, Gaines SD, Guernier V, Guegan JF. 2007 Globalization of human infectious disease. Ecology 88, 1903-1910. (doi:10.1890/06-1052.1)
47. Keesing F et al. 2010 Impacts of biodiversity on the emergence and transmission of infectious diseases. Nature 468, 647-652. (doi:10.1038/nature09575)
48. Hirsch A. 1883 Handbook of geographical and historical pathology. Ann Arbour, MI: New Sydenham Society.
49. Cliff A, Haggett P, Smallman-Raynor M. 2004 World atlas of epidemic diseases. London, UK: Arnold Publishers.
50. Koch T. 2011 Disease maps: epidemics on the ground. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.
51. Hehir P. 1927 Malaria in India. London, UK: Oxford University Press.
52. May JM. 1951 Map of the world distribution of malaria vectors. Geogr. Rev. 41, 638-639. (doi:10.2307/210709)
53. Macdonald G. 1957 Local features of malaria. In The epidemiology and control of malaria. pp. 63-99. London, UK: Oxford University Press.
54. Pampana E. 1969 A textbook of malaria eradication, 2nd edn. London, UK: Oxford University Press.
55. Lysenko A, Semashko I. 1968 In Geography of malaria: a medical-geographical study of an ancient desease (ed. AW Lebedew). Moscow, Russia: Academy of Sciences, USSR.
56. Wertheim HFL, Horby P, Woodall JP. 2012 Atlas of human infectious diseases. Oxford, UK: Wiley-Blackwell.
57. Hay SI, Tatem AJ, Graham AJ, Goetz SJ, Rogers DJ. 2006 Global environmental data for mapping infectious disease distribution. Adv. Parasitol. 62, 37-77. (doi:10.1016/S0065-308X(05)62002-7)
58. Scharlemann JPW, Benz D, Hay SI, Purse BV, Tatem AJ, Wint GRW, Rogers DJ. 2008 Global data for ecology and epidemiology: a novel algorithm for temporal Fourier processing MODIS data. PLoS ONE 3, e1408. (doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0001408)
59. Patil AP, Gething PW, Piel FB, Hay SI. 2011 Bayesian geostatistics in health cartography: the perspective of malaria. Trends Parasitol. 27, 245-252. (doi:10.1016/j.pt.2011.01.003)
60. Metselaar D, Van Thiel PH. 1959 Classification of malaria. Trop. Geogr. Med. 11, 157-161.
61. Gething PW, Kirui VC, Alegana VA, Okiro EA, Noor AM, Snow RW. 2010 Estimating the number of paediatric fevers associated with malaria infection presenting to Africa's public health sector in 2007. PLoS Med. 7, e1000301. (doi:10.1371/journal. pmed.1000301)
62. Hay SI, Okiro EA, Gething PW, Patil AP, Tatem AJ, Guerra CA, Snow RW. 2010 Estimating the global clinical burden of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in 2007. PLoS Med. 7, e1000290. (doi:10.1371/journal. pmed.1000290)
63. Smith DL, Drakeley CJ, Chiyaka C, Hay SI. 2010 A quantitative analysis of transmission efficiency versus intensity for malaria. Nat. Commun. 1, 108. (doi:10.1038/ncomms1107)
64. Smith DL, Cohen JM, Moonen B, Tatem AJ, Sabot OJ, Ali A, Mugheiry SM. 2011 Infectious disease. Solving the Sisyphean problem of malaria in Zanzibar. Science 332, 1384-1385. (doi:10.1126/ science.1201398)
65. Rogers DJ. 2006 Models for vectors and vectorborne diseases. Adv. Parasitol. 62, 1-35. (doi:10.1016/S0065-308X(05)62001-5)
66. Hutchinson GE. 1957 Concluding remarks. Cold Spring Harb. Symp. Quant. Biol. 22, 415-427. (doi:10.1101/SQB.1957.022.01.039)
67. Southwood TRE. 1977 Habitat, templet for ecological strategies? Presidential address to British Ecological Society, 5 January 1977. J. Anim. Ecol. 46, 337-365. (doi:10.2307/3817)
68. Elith J, Leathwick JR, Hastie T. 2008 A working guide to boosted regression trees. J. Anim. Ecol. 77, 802-813. (doi:10.1111/j.1365-2656.2008.01390.x)
69. De'ath G. 2007 Boosted trees for ecological modeling and prediction. Ecology 88, 243-251. (doi:10.1890/0012-9658(2007)88[243:BTFEMA]2.0.CO;2)
70. Elith J et al. 2006 Novel methods improve prediction of species' distributions from occurrence data. Ecography 29, 129-151. (doi:10.1111/j.2006. 0906-7590.04596.x)
71. R Development Core Team. 2008 R: a language and environment for statistical computing. Vienna, Austria: R Foundation for Statistical Computing (http://www.R-project.org).
72. Hay SI et al. 2010 Developing global maps of the dominant Anopheles vectors of human malaria. PLoS Med. 7, e1000209. (doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1000209)
73. Sinka ME et al. 2011 The dominant Anopheles vectors of human malaria in the Asia-Pacific region: occurrence data, distribution maps and bionomic précis. Parasite Vectors 4, 89. (doi:10.1186/1756-3305-4-89)
74. Sinka ME et al. 2010 The dominant Anopheles vectors of human malaria in Africa, Europe and the Middle East: occurrence data, distribution maps and bionomic précis. Parasite Vectors 3, 117. (doi:10.1186/1756-3305-3-117)
75. Sinka ME et al. 2010 The dominant Anopheles vectors of human malaria in the Americas: occurrence data, distribution maps and bionomic précis. Parasite Vectors 3, 72. (doi:10.1186/1756-3305-3-72)
76. Sinka ME et al. 2012 A global map of dominant malaria vectors. Parasite Vectors 5, 69. (doi:10.1186/ 1756-3305-5-69)
77. Diggle PJ, Ribeiro PJ. 2007 In Model-based geostatistics. (eds P Bickel, P Diggle, S Fienberg, U Gather, I Olkin, S Zeger). New York, NY: Springer.
78. Diggle PJ, Tawn JA, Moyeed RA. 1998 Model-based geostatistics. J. Roy. Stat. Soc. C Appl. 47, 299-326. (doi:10.1111/1467-9876.00113)
79. Clements ACA, Moyeed R, Brooker S. 2006 Bayesian geostatistical prediction of the intensity of infection with Schistosoma mansoni in East Africa. Parasitology 133, 711-719. (doi:10.1017/ S0031182006001181)
80. Diggle PJ et al. 2007 Spatial modelling and the prediction of Loa loa risk: decision making under uncertainty. Ann. Trop. Med. Parasitol. 101, 499-509. (doi:10.1179/136485907X229121)
81. Vounatsou P, Raso G, Tanner M, N'Goran EK, Utzinger J. 2009 Bayesian geostatistical modelling for mapping schistosomiasis transmission. Parasitology 136, 1695-1705. (doi:10.1017/ S003118200900599X)
82. Magalhaes RJ, Clements AC, Patil AP, Gething PW, Brooker S. 2011 The applications of model-based geostatistics in helminth epidemiology and control. Adv. Parasitol. 74, 267-296. (doi:10.1016/B978-0-12-385897-9.00005-7)
83. Raso G et al. 2012 Mapping malaria risk among children in Cote d'Ivoire using Bayesian geostatistical models. Malar. J. 11, 160. (doi:10.1186/ 1475-2875-11-160)
84. Anderson RM, May RM. 1979 Population biology of infectious diseases: part I. Nature 280, 361-367. (doi:10.1038/280361a0)
85. May RM, Anderson RM. 1979 Population biology of infectious diseases: part II. Nature 280, 455-461. (doi:10.1038/280455a0)
86. Anderson RM, May RM. 1991 Infectious diseases of humans: dynamics and control. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.
87. May RM, Gupta S, McLean AR. 2001 Infectious disease dynamics: what characterizes a successful invader? Phil. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B 356, 901-910. (doi:10.1098/rstb.2001.0866)
88. Hutt MSR, Burkitt DP. 1986 The geography of noninfectious disease. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.
89. UNPD. 2010 World population prospects: the 2010 revision population database. New York, NY: United Nations Population Division (U.N.P.D.) See http:// esa.un.org/unpp/.
90. Aspinall W. 2010 A route to more tractable expert advice. Nature 463, 294-295. (doi:10.1038/463294a)
91. Cooke RM. 1991 Experts in uncertainty. Opinion and subjective probability in science. New York, NY: Oxford University Press.
92. Balk D, Deichmann U, Yetman G, Pozzi F, Hay S, Nelson A. 2006 Determining global population distribution: methods, applications and data. Adv. Parasitol. 62, 119-156. (doi:10.1016/S0065-308X(05)62004-0)
93. Linard C, Tatem AJ. 2012 Large-scale spatial population databases in infectious disease research. Int. J. Health Geogr. 11, 7. (doi:10.1186/1476-072X-11-7)
94. Gething PW, Van Boeckel T, Smith DL, Guerra CA, Patil AP, Snow RW, Hay SI. 2011 Modelling the global constraints of temperature on transmission of Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax. Parasite Vectors 4, 92. (doi:10.1186/1756-3305-4-92)
95. Hall R, Jolley D. 2011 International measles incidence and immunization coverage. J. Infect. Dis. 204, S158-S163. (doi:10.1093/infdis/jir124)
96. Harrison LH et al. 2011 The Global Meningococcal Initiative: recommendations for reducing the global burden of meningococcal disease. Vaccine 29, 3363-3371. (doi:10.1016/j.vaccine.2011.02.058)
97. Minor PD. 2012 The polio-eradication programme and issues of the end game. J. Gen. Virol. 93, 457-474. (doi:10.1099/vir.0.036988-0)
98. MEDLINE. 2011 Fact Sheet. Bethesda, MA: U.S. National Library of Medicine (NLM). (http://www. nlm.nih.gov/pubs/factsheets/medline.html)
99. Bilofsky HS, Burks C. 1988 The GenBank genetic sequence data bank. Nucleic Acids Res. 16, 1861-1863. (doi:10.1093/nar/16.5.1861)
100. Benson DA, Karsch-Mizrachi I, Clark K, Lipman DJ, Ostell J, Sayers EW. 2012 GenBank. Nucleic Acids Res. 40, D48-D53. (doi:10.1093/nar/gkr1202)
101. PubMed. 2011 PubMed help. Bethesda, MA: National Center for Biotechnology Information. (http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK3827)
102. Lyon A, Nunn M, Grossel G, Burgman M. 2011 Comparison of web-based biosecurity intelligence systems: BioCaster, EpiSPIDER and HealthMap. Transboundary Emerg. Dis. (doi:10.1111/j.1865-1682.2011.01258.x)
103. Salathé M et al. 2012 Digital epidemiology. PLoS Comput. Biol. 8, e1002616. (doi:10.1371/journal. pcbi.1002616)
104. Signorini A, Segre AM, Polgreen PM. 2011 The use of Twitter to track levels of disease activity and public concern in the US during the influenza A H1N1 pandemic. PLoS ONE 6, e19467. (doi:10.1371/ journal.pone.0019467)
105. Chew C, Eysenbach G. 2010 Pandemics in the age of Twitter: content analysis of Tweets during the 2009 H1N1 outbreak. PLoS ONE 5, e14118. (doi:10.1371/ journal.pone.0014118)
106. Paul MJ, Dredze M. 2011 A model for mining public health topics from Twitter. Technical report. Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD.
107. Howe J. 2006 The rise of crowdsourcing. Wired 14, 1-5.
108. Shirky C. 2010 Cognitive surplus. Creativity and generosity in a connected age. London, UK: Penguin Books.
109. von Ahn L, Kedia M, Blum M. 2006 Verbosity: a game for collecting common-sense facts. In ACM Conf. on Human Factors in Computing Systems. April 24-27, 2006 Montreal Canada. Pittsburgh, PA: Computer Science Department, Carnegie Mellon University.
110. Sheng VS, Provost F, Panagiotis Ipeirotis G. 2008 Get another label? Improving data quality and data mining using multiple, noisy labelers. New York, NY: ACM Digital Library.
111. Kittur A, Chi EH, Suh B. 2008 Crowdsourcing user studies with Mechanical Turk. New York, NY: ACM Digital Library.