Coherence and correspondence competence: Implications for elicitation and aggregation of probabilistic forecasts of world events

Proceedings of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society

Volumn , Issue , 2012, Pages 313-317

  Tsai, Jennifer ^a   Kirlik, Alex ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS AT URBANA CHAMPAIGN   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

BAYES' THEOREM; HAMMOND; PERFORMANCE BASED; PRIOR PROBABILITY; PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS; PROCESS INFORMATION;

SPORTS; VISUALIZATION;

FORECASTING;

EID: 84873419265     PISSN: 10711813     EISSN: None     Source Type: Conference Proceeding    
DOI: 10.1177/1071181312561073     Document Type: Conference Paper

References (9)

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5. Surowiecki, J. (2004). The wisdom of crowds. New York: Doubleday.
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8. Tsai, J., Miller, S., & Kirlik, A. (2011). Interactive visualizations to improve Bayesian reasoning. Proceedings of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society 55th Annual Meeting. Las Vegas, NV.
9. Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1974). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Science, 185, 112-1131.