The relative profitability of dairy, sheep, beef and grain farm enterprises in southeast Australia under selected rainfall and price scenarios

Agricultural Systems

Volumn 117, Issue , 2013, Pages 35-44

  Browne, Natalie ^a   Kingwell, Ross ^b,c,e   Behrendt, Ralph ^d   Eckard, Richard ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE   (Australia)

^b UNIVERSITY OF WESTERN AUSTRALIA   (Australia)

^c Bentley Delivery Centre   (Australia)

^d DEPARTMENT OF PRIMARY INDUSTRIES   (Australia)

^e Australian Export Grains Innovation Centre (AEGIC)   (Australia)

Author keywords

Climate variability; Dryland farming; Farm enterprises; Price variability

Indexed keywords

BOS; BRASSICA NAPUS VAR. NAPUS; OVIS ARIES; TRITICUM AESTIVUM;

EID: 84873274576     PISSN: 0308521X     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2013.01.002     Document Type: Article

References (73)

1. ABARE, 2010. Australian Commodity Statistics 2010. Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Canberra, ACT, Australia. < http://adl.brs.gov.au/data/warehouse/pe_abares99001762/ACS_2010.pdf>.
2. Acuna, T.B., Dean, G., Riffkin, P., Constraints to achieving high potential yield of wheat in a temperate, high-rainfall environment in south-eastern Australia. Crop Pasture Sci. 62 (2011), 125–136.
3. Akcaoz, H., Kizilay, H., Ozcatalbas, O., Risk management strategies in dairy farming: a case study in Turkey. J. Anim. Vet. Adv. 8 (2009), 949–958.
4. Alcock, D., Hegarty, R.S., Effects of pasture improvement on productivity, gross margin and methane emissions of a grazing sheep enterprise. Int. Congr. Ser. 1293 (2006), 103–106.
5. Alexander, L., Hope, P., Collins, D., Trewin, B., Lynch, A., Nicholls, N., Trends in Australia's climate means and extremes: a global context. Aust. Meteorol. Mag. 56 (2007), 1–18.
6. Asseng, S., Thomas, D., McIntosh, P., Alves, O., Khimashia, N., Managing mixed wheat–sheep farms with a seasonal forecast. Agric. Syst. 113 (2012), 50–56.
7. AWEX, 2011. Wool Prices. Australian Wool Exchange, Lane Cove, NSW, Australia. < http://www.awex.com.au>.
8. Bardsley, P., Harris, M., An approach to the econometric estimation of attitudes to risk in Australia. Aust. J. Agric. Econ. 31 (1987), 112–126.
9. Barr, N., Karunaratne, K., Wilkinson, R., 2005. Australia's Farmers: Past, Present and Future. Land and Water Australia, Canberra, ACT, Australia.
10. Bathgate, A., Revell, C., Kingwell, R., Identifying the value of pasture improvement using wholefarm modelling. Agric. Syst. 102 (2009), 48–57.
11. Berrisford, T., Tocker, J., 2009. Sheep Farm Monitor Project 2008–2009. Department of Primary Industries, Geelong, VIC, Australia.
12. Biazin, B., Sterk, G., Temesgen, M., Abdulkedir, A., Stroosnijder, L., Rainwater harvesting and management in rainfed agricultural systems in sub-Saharan Africa – a review. Phys. Chem. Earth 47–48 (2012), 139–151.
13. Bird, P.R., Watson, M.J., Cayley, J.W.D., Effect of stocking rate, season and pasture characteristics on liveweight gain of beef steers grazing perennial pastures. Aust. J. Agric. Res. 40 (1989), 1277–1291.
14. Bowey, G., Price, D., 2010. Agriculture Notes: Growing Wheat (Revised). Department of Primary Industries, Melbourne, VIC, Australia. < http://www.dpi.vic.gov.au/agriculture/grain-crops/crop-production/growing-wheat>.
15. Browne, N.A., Eckard, R.J., Behrendt, R., Kingwell, R.S., A comparative analysis of on-farm greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural enterprises in south eastern Australia. Anim. Feed Sci. Technol. 166–167 (2011), 641–652.
16. Clark, S.G., Donnelly, J.R., Moore, A.D., The GrassGro decision support tool: its effectiveness in simulating pasture and animal production and value in determining research priorities. Aust. J. Exp. Agric. 40 (2000), 247–256.
17. Cohen, R.D.H., Stevens, J.P., Moore, A.D., Donnelly, J.R., Validating and using the GrassGro decision support tool for a mixed grass/alfalfa pasture in western Canada. Can. J. Anim. Sci. 83 (2003), 171–182.
18. Coster, M., 2006. Agriculture Notes: Small Farm – Time Management Tips for Part-Time Farmers. Department of Primary Industries, Werribee, VIC, Australia. < http://www.dpi.vic.gov.au/agriculture/farming-management/hobby-small-business-farming/small-farm-time-management>.
19. CSIRO, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, 2007. Climate Change in Australia: Technical Report 2007. Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Aspendale, VIC, Australia. < http://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/victemp1.php>.
20. Cullen, B.R., Eckard, R.J., Callow, M.N., Johnson, I.R., Chapman, D.F., Rawnsley, R.P., Garcia, S.C., White, T., Snow, V.O., Simulating pasture growth rates in Australian and New Zealand grazing systems. Aust. J. Agric. Res. 59 (2008), 761–768.
21. Dairy Australia, 2009. Dairy 2009 Situation and Outlook Report. Dairy Australia, Southbank, VIC, Australia. < http://www.dairyaustralia.com.au/Our-Dairy-Industry/~/media/Publications/Situation-and-Outlook/2009/Dairy%202009%20Situation%20and%20Outlook%20Full%20Report.ashx>.
22. Dairy Australia, 2012. Farmgate Milk Price. Dairy Australia, Southbank, VIC, Australia. < http://www.dairyaustralia.com.au/Statistics-and-markets/Prices/Farmgate-Prices.aspx>.
23. English, W., 2007. Dairy Industry Farm Monitor Project 2006–2007. Department of Primary Industries, Ellinbank, VIC, Australia.
24. English, W., Quinn, H., Axam, A., Tocker, J., 2008. Dairy Industry Farm Monitor Project 2007–2008. Department of Primary Industries, Ellinbank, VIC, Australia.
25. FAO, 2011. Price Volatility in Food and Agricultural Markets: Policy Responses, Policy Report Including Contributions by FAO, IFAD, IMF, OECD, UNCTAD, WFP, the World Bank, the WTO, IFPRI and the UN HLTF, June 2011, FAO, Rome, pp. 68.
26. Fisher, J., Tozer, P., Abrecht, D., Livestock in no-till cropping systems – a story of trade-offs. Anim. Prod. Sci. 52 (2012), 197–214.
27. Gilmour, D., Ryan, M., Swann, C., Shambrook, D., 2009. Dairy Industry Farm Monitor Project 2008–2009. Department of Primary Industries, Rutherglen, VIC, Australia.
28. Gilmour, D., Ryan, M., Swann, C., Shambrook, D., 2010. Dairy Industry Farm Monitor Project 2009–2010. Department of Primary Industries, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
29. Gilmour, D., Ryan, M., Swann, C., Nelson, N., 2011. Dairy Industry Farm Monitor Project 2010–2011. Department of Primary Industries, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
30. Gottfredson, M., Aspinall, K., Innovation versus complexity: what is too much of a good thing?. Harvard Bus. Rev. 83 (2005), 62–72.
31. Graham, J.F., Knowles, H.M., Clark, A.J., 1992. The influence of growth rate selection upon per hectare productivity of beef cows. In: Proc. Aust. Soc. Anim. Prod. Perth, WA, Australia.
32. Hennessy, K.J., Suppiah, R., Page, C.M., Australian rainfall changes, 1910–1995. Aust. Meteorol. Mag. 48 (1999), 1–13.
33. Hollier, C., Reid, M., Small Farms – Valued Contributors to Healthy Rural Communities. 2007, Rural Industries Research and Development Corporation, Barton, ACT, Australia.
34. Jackson, E., Quaddus, M., Islam, N., Stanton, J., Sociological factors affecting agricultural price risk management in Australia. Rural Sociol. 74 (2009), 546–572.
35. Johnson, I.R., Chapman, D.F., Snow, V.O., Eckard, R.J., Parsons, A.J., Lambert, M.G., Cullen, B.R., DairyMod and EcoMod: biophysical pasture-simulation models for Australia and New Zealand. Aust. J. Exp. Agric. 48 (2008), 621–631.
36. Jones, C., El-Osta, H., Green, R., Economic Well-Being of Farm Households. 2006, United States Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC, USA.
37. Kingwell, R., Price risk management for Australian broadacre farmers: some observations. Aust. Agribus. Rev. 8 (2000), 28–40.
38. Kingwell, R., Climate change in Australia: agricultural impacts and adaptation. Aust. Agribus. Rev. 14 (2006), 1–29.
39. Kingwell, R., Managing complexity in modern farming. Aust. J. Agric. Resour. Econ. 55 (2011), 12–34.
40. Kingwell, R., Revenue volatility faced by some of the world's major wheat producers. Farm Policy J. 9 (2012), 23–33.
41. Lawes, R.A., Kingwell, R.S., A longitudinal examination of business performance indicators for drought-affected farms. Agric. Syst. 106 (2012), 94–101.
42. Liu, X., Pietola, K., Forward hedging under price and production risk of wheat. Agric. Food Sci. 14 (2005), 123–133.
43. Lohano, H.D., King, R.P., A stochastic dynamic programming analysis of farmland investment and financial management. Can. J. Agric. Econ.– Rev. Can. Agroecon. 57 (2009), 575–600.
44. Maneta, M.P., Torres, M.O., Wallender, W.W., Vosti, S., Howitt, R., Rodrigues, L., Bassoi, L.H., Panday, S., A spatially distributed hydroeconomic model to assess the effects of drought on land use, farm profits, and agricultural employment. Water Resour. Res., 45, 2009.
45. McBride, W.D., Mathews, K., 2011. The Diverse Structure and Organizaation of U.S. Beef Cow–Calf Farms. United States Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC, USA.
46. McEachern, S., Francis, J., Brown, D., AgInsights 2010 – Knowing the Past: Shaping the Future. 2010, Holmes Sackett and Associates Pty Ltd., Wagga Wagga, NSW, Australia.
47. MLA, 2011. Meat Prices. Meat and Livestock Australia, North Sydney, NSW, Australia. < http://www.mla.com.au>.
48. Mood, A., Graybill, F., Boes, D., Introduction to the Theory of Statistics. third ed., 1974, McGraw-Hill, Inc., New York, NY, USA.
49. Moore, A.D., Donnelly, J.R., Freer, M., GRAZPLAN: decision support systems for Australian grazing enterprises.3. Pasture growth and soil moisture submodels, and the GrassGro DSS. Agric. Syst. 55 (1997), 535–582.
50. Naylor, R.L., Falcon, W.P., Food security in an era of economic volatility. Popul. Dev. Rev. 36 (2010), 693–723.
51. Nelson, R., Kokic, P., Crimp, S., Martin, P., Meinke, H., Howden, S.M., de Voil, P., Nidumolu, U., The vulnerability of Australian rural communities to climate variability and change. Part II – integrating impacts with adaptive capacity. Environ. Sci. Policy 13 (2010), 18–27.
52. Nnaji, A., Forecasting seasonal rainfall for agricultural decision-making in northern Nigeria. Agric. Forest Meteorol. 107 (2001), 193–205.
53. Pearson, L.J., Nelsonc, R., Crimp, S., Langridge, J., Interpretive review of conceptual frameworks and research models that inform Australia's agricultural vulnerability to climate change. Environ. Modell. Softw. 26 (2011), 113–123.
54. Petersen, E.H., Fraser, R.W., An assessment of the value of seasonal forecasting technology for Western Australian farmers. Agric. Syst. 70 (2001), 259–274.
55. Podesta, G., Bert, F., Rajagopalan, B., Apipattanavis, S., Laciana, C., Weber, E., Easterling, W., Katz, R., Letson, D., Menendez, A., Decadal climate variability in the Argentine Pampas: regional impacts of plausible climate scenarios on agricultural systems. Climate Res. 40 (2009), 199–210.
56. Quinn, H., English, W., 2007. Wool Industry Farm Monitor Report 2006–2007. Department of Primary Industries, Box Hill, VIC, Australia.
57. Quinn, H., Tocker, J., English, W., 2007. Southwest Farm Monitor Report 2005–2006. Department of Primary Industries, Box Hill, VIC, Australia.
58. Riffkin, P.A., Evans, P.M., Chin, J.F., Kearney, G.A., Early-maturing spring wheat outperforms late-maturing winter wheat in the high rainfall environment of south-western Victoria. Aust. J. Agric. Res. 54 (2003), 193–202.
59. Riffkin, P., Potter, T., Kearney, G., Yield performance of late-maturing winter canola (Brassica napus L.) types in the high rainfall zone of southern Australia. Crop Pasture Sci. 63 (2012), 17–32.
60. Sadras, V., Interaction between rainfall and nitrogen fertilisation of wheat in environments prone to terminal drought: economic and environmental risk analysis. Field Crops Res. 77 (2002), 201–215.
61. Seo, S.N., Is an integrated farm more resilient against climate change? A micro-econometric analysis of portfolio diversification in African agriculture. Food Policy 35 (2010), 32–40.
62. Slegers, M.F.W., “If only it would rain”: farmers’ perceptions of rainfall and drought in semi-arid central Tanzania. J. Arid. Environ. 72 (2008), 2106–2123.
63. Tocker, J., Berrisford, T., 2010. Livestock Farm Monitor Project 2009–2010. Department of Primary Industries, Ballarat, VIC, Australia.
64. Tocker, J., Berrisford, T., 2011. Livestock Farm Monitor Project 2010–2011. Department of Primary Industries, Ballarat, VIC, Australia.
65. Tocker, J., Quinn, H., 2008. Sheep Farm Monitor Project 2007–2008. Department of Primary Industries, Ballarat, VIC, Australia.
66. Tocker, J., Quinn, H., English, W., 2008. South West Farm Monitor Project 2006–2007. Department of Primary Industries, Ballarat, VIC, Australia.
67. Tocker, J., Swann, C., Berrisford, T., 2009. South West Farm Monitor Project 2007–2008. Department of Primary Industries, Ballarat, VIC, Australia.
68. Tocker, J., Berrisford, T., Gilmour, D., 2010. South West Farm Monitor Project 2008–2009. Department of Primary Industries, Ballarat, VIC, Australia.
69. UNDP, 2007. Climate Change and Human Development in Africa: Assessing the Risks and Vulnerability of Climate Change in Kenya, Malawi and Ethiopia. United Nations Development Program, New York, NY, USA.
70. WestVic Dairy, 2010. Production Data. WestVic Dairy, Terang, VIC, Australia. < http://www.westvicdairy.com.au/?id=productiondata>.
71. Xcheque Pty Ltd., 2011a. Feed Prices, Xcheque Pty Ltd., Glen Alvie, VIC, Australia. < http://www.xcheque.com/library/charts/235-aus-feed-prices.html>.
72. Xcheque Pty Ltd., 2011b. Fertiliser Prices, Xcheque Pty Ltd., Glen Alvie, VIC, Australia. < http://www.xcheque.com/library/charts/113-aus-fertiliser-prices.html>.
73. Zhang, H., Turner, N.C., Poole, M.L., SImpson, N., Crop production in the high rainfall zones of southern Australia—potential, constraints and opportunities. Aust. J. Exp. Agric. 46 (2006), 1035–1049.