The effects of hurricane surge in power system outage risk models

11th International Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference and the Annual European Safety and Reliability Conference 2012, PSAM11 ESREL 2012

Volumn 7, Issue , 2012, Pages 5740-5746

  Guikema, Seth D ^a   Udoh, Ikpoto ^b   Irish, Jennifer ^c   Nateghi, Roshi ^a  

^a JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b TEXAS A AND M UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^c VIRGINIA POLYTECHNIC INSTITUTE AND STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

Hurricane; Power systems; Risk; Storm surge

Indexed keywords

COASTAL AREA; DAMAGED SYSTEMS; DATA MINING METHODS; DATA MINING MODELS; DATA SETS; EXPLANATORY VARIABLES; FORECASTING MODELS; GRID CELLS; GULF COAST; HYDRODYNAMIC MODEL; POWER OUTAGE; REGRESSION MODEL; SERVICE AREA; STORM SURGES; TREE-BASED; TROPICAL CYCLONE;

CLIMATE MODELS; DATA MINING; ESTIMATION; FLOODS; HURRICANE EFFECTS; HURRICANES; REGRESSION ANALYSIS; RISK ASSESSMENT; RISKS; SAFETY ENGINEERING; STANDBY POWER SYSTEMS; STORMS;

OUTAGES;

EID: 84873113049     PISSN: None     EISSN: None     Source Type: Conference Proceeding    
DOI: None     Document Type: Conference Paper

References (16)

1. Breiman, L., 2001. Random forests. Machine Learning Vol. 45, pp. 5-32.
2. Guikema, S.D. and S.M. Quiring. 2012. Hybrid data mining-regression for infrastructure risk assessment based on zero-inflated data, Reliability Engineering & System Safety, Vol. 99, pp. 178-182.
3. Guikema SD, Quiring SM, and Han SR. 2010. Prestorm Estimation of Hurricane Damage to Electric Power Distribution Systems, Journal of Risk Analysis, Volume 30, Issue 12, pp. 1744-1752.
4. Han SR, Guikema SD, Quiring SM, Lee KH, Davidson RA, and Rosowsky D. 2009a. Estimating the Spatial Distribution of Power Outages during Hurricanes in the Gulf Coast Region, Reliability Engineering and System Safety, vol. 94, no. 2, pp. 199-210.
5. Han SR, Guikema SD, and Quiring SM. 2009b. Improving the Predictive Accuracy of Hurricane Power Outage Forecasts using Generalized Additive Models, Risk Analysis, vol. 29, no. 10, pp. 1443-1453.
6. Holland, G.J., 1980. An analytic model of the wind and pressure profiles in hurricanes, Monthly Weather Review, vol. 108, p. 1213.
7. Irish, J.L. and Resio, D.T., 2009. A hydrodynamics-based surge scale for hurricanes, Journal of Ocean Engineering, 2009.07.012.
8. Luettich, R., and Westerink, J., 2004. Formulation and numerical implementation of the 2D/3D ADC IRC finite element model version 44.XX, http://www.adcirc.org.
9. Liu, H., R.A. Davidson, D. Rosowsky, and J.R. Stedinger. 2005. Negative Binomial Regression of Electric Power Outages in Hurricanes, ASCE Journal of Infrastructure Systems, Vol. 11, No. 4, pp. 258-267.
10. Lui H, Davidson RA and Apanasovich TV. 2007. Statistical Forecasting of Electric Power Restoration Times in Hurricanes and Ice Storms, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 22, No. 4, pp. 2270-2279.
11. Nateghi R, Guikema SD, Quiring SM. 2011. Comparison and Validation of Statistical Methods for Predicting Power Outage Durations in the Event of Hurricane. Journal of Risk Analysis, Vol. 106, No. 1, pp. 31, 2011.
12. Resio, D.T., Irish, J.L., and Cialone, M.A., 2009. A surge response function approach to coastal hazard assessment. Part 1: Basic concepts, Natural Hazards, doi: 10.1007/s 11069-009-9379-y.
13. Tides and Currents (http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA. Cited in 2012.
14. Thompson, E.F., and Cardone, V.J., 1996. Practical modeling of hurricane surface wind fields, Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal and Ocean Engineering. Vol. 122, No. 4, pp. 195-205.
15. Vickery, P. 1999. Hurricane Vulnerability and Risk Analysis of the VINLEC Transmission and Distribution System, Caribbean Disaster Mitigation Project. Available from www.oas.org/cdmpdocumcnt/vinlec/vinleciitm (last accessed January 31, 2012).
16. Winkler, J. L., Duenas-Osorio, R. Stein, and D. Subramanian. 2010. Performance assessment of topologically diverse power systems subjected to hurricane events. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, Vol. 95, No. 4, pp. 323-336.