Impact of different ENSO regimes on southwest pacific tropical cyclones

Journal of Climate

Volumn 26, Issue 2, 2013, Pages 600-608

  Chand, Savin S ^a   Mcbride, John L ^a   Tory, Kevin J ^a   Wheeler, Matthew C ^a   Walsh, Kevin J E ^b  

^a BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY   (Australia)

^b UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE   (Australia)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

AGGLOMERATIVE HIERARCHICAL CLUSTERING; CYCLONIC RELATIVE VORTICITY; EMPIRICAL ORTHOGONAL FUNCTION ANALYSIS; FAVORABLE CONDITIONS; INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST); TROPICAL CYCLONE; VERTICAL WIND SHEAR;

ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE; HURRICANES; MULTI AGENT SYSTEMS; SEPARATION;

NICKEL COMPOUNDS;

CYCLOGENESIS; ECOLOGICAL IMPACT; EL NINO; EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION; LA NINA; RELATIVE HUMIDITY; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE; TROPICAL CYCLONE; VORTICITY; WIND SHEAR;

PACIFIC OCEAN; PACIFIC OCEAN (SOUTHWEST);

EID: 84872920622     PISSN: 08948755     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00114.1     Document Type: Article

References (39)

1. Ashok, K., S. K. Behera, S. A. Rao, H. Weng, and T. Yamagata, 2007: El Niño Modoki and its possible teleconnection. J. Geophys. Res., 112, C11007, doi:10.1029/2006JC003798.
2. Basher, R. E., and X. Zheng, 1995: Tropical cyclones in the southwest Pacific: Spatial patterns and relationships to Southern Oscillation and sea surface temperature. J. Climate, 8, 1249-1260.
3. Camargo, S. J., A. H. Sobel, A. G. Barnston, and J. K. Philip, 2010: The influence of natural climate variability on tropical cyclones, and seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone activity. Global Perspectives on Tropical Cyclones: From Science to Mitigation, J. C. L. Chan and J. D. Kepert, Eds., World Scientific, 325-360.
4. Chand, S. S., and K. J. E. Walsh, 2009: Tropical cyclone activity in the Fiji region: Spatial patterns and relationship to large-scale circulation. J. Climate, 22, 3877-3893.
5. Chand, S. S., and K. J. E. Walsh, 2011: Influence of ENSO on tropical cyclone intensity in the Fiji region. J. Climate, 24, 4096-4108.
6. Chand, S. S., K. J. E. Walsh, and J. C. L. Chan, 2010: A Bayesian regression approach to seasonal prediction of tropical cyclones affecting the Fiji region. J. Climate, 23, 3425-3445.
7. Chen, G., 2011: How does shifting Pacific Ocean warming modulate on tropical cyclone frequency over the South China Sea? J. Climate, 24, 4695-4700.
8. Chen, G., and C. Y. Tam, 2010: Different impacts of two kinds of Pacific Ocean warming on tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific. Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L01803, doi:10.1029/2009GL041708.
9. Chu, P. S., and J. Wang, 1997: Tropical cyclone occurrences in the vicinity of Hawaii: Are the differences between El Niño and non-El Niño years significant? J. Climate, 10, 2683-2689.
10. Emery, W. J., and R. E. Thomson, 2001: Data Analysis Methods in Physical Oceanography. 2nd ed. Elsevier, 634 pp.
11. Evans, J. L., and R. J. Allan, 1992: El Niño/Southern Oscillation modification to the structure of the monsoon and tropical cyclone activity in the Australasian region. Int. J. Climatol., 12, 611-623.
12. Hong, C.-C., Y.-H. Li, T. Li, and M.-Y. Lee, 2011: Impacts of central Pacific and eastern Pacific El Niños on tropical cyclone tracks over the western North Pacific. Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L16712, doi:10.1029/2011GL048821.
13. Kalnay, E., and Coauthors, 1996: The NCEP/NCAR 4-Year Reanalysis Project. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77, 437-471.
14. Kao, H.-Y., and J.-Y. Yu, 2009: Contrasting eastern-Pacific and central-Pacific types of ENSO. J. Climate, 22, 615-632.
15. Kim, H.-M., P. J. Webster, and J. A. Curry, 2009: Impact of shifting patterns of Pacific Ocean warming on North Atlantic tropical cyclones. Science, 325, 77-80.
16. Kim, H.-M., P. J. Webster, and J. A. Curry, 2011: Modulation of North Pacific tropical cyclone activity by three phases of ENSO. J. Climate, 24, 1839-1849.
17. Kug, J.-S., F.-F. Jin, and S.-I. An, 2009: Two types of El Niño events: Cold tongue El Niño and warm pool El Niño. J. Climate, 22, 1499-1515.
18. Kuleshov, Y., L. Qi, R. Fawcett, and D. Jones, 2008: On tropical cyclone activity in the Southern Hemisphere: Trends and the ENSO connection. Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L14S08, doi:10.1029/2007GL032983.
19. Kuleshov, Y., L. Qi, R. Fawcett, and D. Jones, 2009: Improving preparedness to natural hazards: Tropical cyclone prediction for the Southern Hemisphere. Ocean Science, J. Gan, Ed., Vol. 12, Advances in Geosciences, World Scientific, 127-143.
20. Kuleshov, Y., R. Fawcett, L. Qi, B. Trewin, D. Jones, J. McBride, and H. Ramsay, 2010: Trends in tropical cyclones in the south Indian Ocean and the South Pacific Ocean. Geophys. Res. Lett., 115, D01101, doi:10.1029/2009JD012372.
21. Larkin, N. K., and D. E. Harrison, 2005: Global seasonal temperature and precipitation anomalies during El Niño autumn and winter. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L16705, doi:10.1029/ 2005GL022860.
22. McBride, J. L., 1995: Tropical cyclone formation. Global perspectives on tropical cyclones, R. L. Elsberry, Ed., WMO Tech. Doc. WMO/TD-693, Tropical Cyclone Programme Rep. TCP-38, 63-105.
23. McBride, J. L., M. R. Haylock, and N. Nicholls, 2003: Relationships between theMaritime Continent heat source and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon. J. Climate, 16, 2905-2914.
24. Nicholls, N., 1979: A possible method for predicting seasonal tropical cyclone activity in the Australian region. Mon. Wea. Rev., 107, 1221-1224.
25. Nicholls, N., 1984: The Southern Oscillation, sea-surface temperature, and interannual fluctuations in Australian tropical cyclone activity. J. Climatol., 4, 661-670.
26. Ramsay, H. A., L. M. Leslie, P. J. Lamb, M. B. Richman, and M. Leplastrier, 2008: Interannual variability of tropical cyclones in the Australian region: Role of large-scale environment. J. Climate, 21, 1083-1103.
27. Rasmusson, E. M., and T. H. Carpenter, 1982: Variations in tropical sea surface temperature and surface wind fields associated with the SouthernOscillation/ElNiño.Mon. Wea. Rev., 110, 354-384.
28. Rayner, N. A., D. E. Parker, E. B. Horton, C. K. Folland, L. V. Alexander, D. P. Rowell, E. C. Kent, and A. Kaplan, 2003: Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J. Geophys. Res., 108, 4407, doi:10.1029/2002JD002670.
29. Revell, C. G., and S. W. Goulter, 1986a: Lagged relationships between Southern Oscillation and numbers of tropical cyclones in the South Pacific region. Mon. Wea. Rev., 114, 2669-2670.
30. Revell, C. G., and S. W. Goulter, 1986b: South Pacific tropical cyclones and the Southern Oscillation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 114, 1138-1145.
31. Singh, A., T. Delcroix, and S. Cravatte, 2011: Contrasting the flavors of El Niño-Southern Oscillation using sea surface salinity observations. J. Geophys. Res., 116, C06016, doi:10.1029/ 2010JC006862.
32. Takahashi, K., A. Montecinos, K. Goubanova, and B. Dewitte, 2011: ENSO regimes: Reinterpreting the canonical and Modoki El Niño. Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L10704, doi:10.1029/2011GL047364.
33. Trenberth, K. E., 1997: The definition of El Niño. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78, 2771-2777.
34. Trenberth, K. E., and D. P. Stepaniak, 2001: Indices of El Niño evolution. J. Climate, 14, 1697-1701.
35. Vincent, E. M., M. Lengaigne, C. E. Menkes, N. C. Jourdain, P. Marchesiello, and G. Madec, 2011: Interannual variability of the South Pacific convergence zone and implications for tropical cyclone genesis. Climate Dyn., 36, 1881-1896, doi:10.1007/s00382-009-0716-3.
36. von Storch, H., and F. W. Zwiers, 1999: Statistical Analysis in Climate Research. Cambridge University Press, 484 pp.
37. Ward, J. H., 1963: Hierarchical grouping to optimize an objective function. J. Amer. Stat. Assoc., 58, 236-244.
38. Wyrtki, K., 1975: El Niño-The dynamic response of the equatorial Pacific Ocean to atmospheric forcing. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 5, 572-584.
39. Yu, J.-Y., and S. T. Kim, 2010: Three evolution patterns of central-Pacific El Niño. Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L08706, doi:10.1029/2010GL042810.