From Wald to Savage: Homo Economicus Becomes a Bayesian Statistician

Journal of the History of the Behavioral Sciences

Volumn 49, Issue 1, 2013, Pages 63-95

  Giocoli, Nicola ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF PISA   (Italy)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

BAYES THEOREM; ECONOMICS; HISTORY; HUMAN; STATISTICS; UNITED STATES;

BAYES THEOREM; ECONOMICS; HISTORY, 20TH CENTURY; HUMANS; STATISTICS AS TOPIC; UNITED STATES;

EID: 84872527145     PISSN: 00225061     EISSN: 15206696     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/jhbs.21579     Document Type: Article

References (81)

1. Anscombe, F., & Aumann, R. A. (1963). A definition of subjective probability. Annals of Mathematical Statistics, 34, 199-205.
2. Arnold, K. J., Girschick, M. A., & Savage, L. J. (1947). Abandoning an experiment prior to completion. In C. Eisenhart, M. W. Hastay, & A. W. Wallis (Eds.), Techniques of statistical analysis (pp. 353-362). New York, NY: McGraw-Hill.
3. Arrow, K. J. (1951a). Social choice and individual values. New York, NY: Wiley.
4. Arrow, K. J. (1951b). Alternative approaches to the theory of choice in risk-taking situations. Econometrica, 19, 404-437.
5. Berger, J. O. (2000). Bayesian analysis: A look at today and thoughts of tomorrow. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 95, 1269-1276.
6. Berry, D. A., Chaloner, K. M., & Geweke, J. K. (Eds.) (1996). Bayesian analysis in statistics and econometrics. Essays in honor of Arnold Zellner. New York, NY: Wiley.
7. Bisin, A. (2011). Introduction to economic analysis: Lecture notes. New York University. Retrieved from http://www.econ.nyu.edu/user/bisina/IEA%20bookOct1.pdf
8. Blaug, M. (1997). Economic theory in retrospect (5th ed.). Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
9. Chernoff, H. (1954). Rational selection of decision functions. Econometrica, 22, 422-443.
10. Debreu, G. (1959). Theory of value. New York, NY: Wiley.
11. Dietrich, F., & List, C. (2012). Mentalism versus behaviourism in economics: A philosophy-of-science perspective. MPRA Paper No. 37813. Retrieved from http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/37813/
12. de Finetti, B. (1937/1964). Foresight: Its logical laws, its subjective sources. In H. E. Kyburg & H. E. Smokler (Eds.) (1964), Studies in subjective probability (pp. 93-158). New York, NY: Wiley.
13. Ferguson, T. S. (1976). Development of the decision model. In D. B. Owen (Ed.), On the history of statistics and probability (pp.335-346). New York, NY: Dekker.
14. Fienberg, S. E. (2003). When did Bayesian inference become 'Bayesian'? Bayesian Analysis, 1, 1-41.
15. Fienberg, S. E. (2008). The early statistical years: 1947-1967. A conversation with Howard Raiffa. Statistical Science, 23, 136-149.
16. Fisher, R. A. (1955). Statistical methods and scientific induction. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B (Methodological), 17, 69-78.
17. Fourcade, M., & Khurana, R. (2011). From social control to financial economics: The linked ecologies of economics and business in twentieth century America. Harvard Business School Working Paper No. 11-071. Retrieved from http://www.hbs.edu/research/pdf/11-071.pdf
18. Friedman, M., & Savage, L. J. (1947). Planning experiments seeking maxima. In C. Eisenhart, M. W. Hastay, & A. Wallis (Eds.), Techniques of statistical analysis (pp. 363-372). New York, NY: McGraw-Hill.
19. Galavotti, M. C. (2003). Harold Jeffreys' probabilistic epistemology: Between logicism and subjectivism. British Journal of the Philosophy of Science, 54, 43-57.
20. Gelman, A. (2008). Objections to Bayesian statistics. Bayesian Analysis, 3, 445-450.
21. Gelman, A., & Shalizi, C. (2012). Philosophy and the practice of Bayesian statistics in the social sciences. In H. Kincaid (Ed.), Oxford handbook of the philosophy of the social sciences (Chapter 11). Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.
22. Gilboa, I. (2009). Theory of decision under uncertainty. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
23. Gilboa, I., Postlewaite, A., & Schmeidler, D. (2009). Is it always rational to satisfy Savage's axioms? Economics and Philosophy, 25, 285-296.
24. Gilboa, I., Postlewaite, A., & Schmeidler, D. (2012). Rationality of belief, or: Why Savage's axioms are neither sufficient nor necessary for rationality. Synthese, 187, 11-31.
25. Giocoli, N. (2003). Modeling rational agents: From interwar economics to early modern game theory. Cheltenham, UK: Elgar.
26. Giocoli, N. (2005a). Savage vs. Wald: Was Bayesian decision theory the only available alternative for postwar economics? Retrieved from papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=910916
27. Giocoli, N. (2005b). Modeling rational agents: The consistency view of rationality and the changing image of neoclassical economics. Cahiers d'économie politique, 49, 177-208.
28. Giocoli, N. (2006). Do prudent agents play lotteries? Von Neumann's contribution to the theory of rational behavior. Journal of the History of Economic Thought, 28, 95-109.
29. Giocoli, N. (2009). Three alternative (?) stories on the late 20th-century rise of game theory. Studi e Note di Economia, 14, 187-210.
30. Graham, G. (2010). Behaviorism. In E. N. Zalta (Ed.), Stanford encyclopedia of philosophy (Fall 2010 edition). Retrieved from http://plato.stanford.edu/archives/fall2010/entries/behaviorism/
31. Gul, F., & Pesendorfer, W. (2008). The case for mindless economics. In A. Caplin & A. Schotter (Eds.), The foundations of positive and normative economics (pp. 3-39). Oxford: Oxford University Press.
32. Hands, W. D. (2010). Economics, psychology, and the history of consumer choice theory. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 34, 633-648.
33. Kadane, J. (2001). Jimmie Savage: An introduction. ISBA Bulletin, 8 (March), 5-6.
34. Karni, E., & Mongin, P. (2000). On the determination of subjective probability by choices. Management Science, 46, 233-248.
35. Klein, J. L. (2000). Economics for a client: The case of statistical quality control and sequential analysis. In R. E. Backhouse & J. Biddle (Eds.), Toward a history of applied economics (pp. 27-69), Durham, NC: Duke University Press.
36. Kreps, D. M. (1990). A course in microeconomic theory. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
37. Jeffreys, H. (1998). Theory of probability (3rd ed.). Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.
38. Landreth, H., & Colander, D. C. (2002). History of economic thought (4th ed.). New York, NY: Houghton Mifflin.
39. Leonard, R. (2010). Von Neumann, Morgenstern and the creation of game theory. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press.
40. Lewin, S. (1996). Economics and psychology: Lessons for our own day from the early twentieth century. Journal of Economic Literature, 34, 1293-1323.
41. Lindley, D. V. (1980). L. J. Savage-His work in probability and statistics. Annals of Statistics, 8, 1-24.
42. Luce, R. D., & Raiffa, H. (1957). Games and decisions. New York, NY: Wiley.
43. Marschak, J. (1946). Neumann's and Morgenstern's new approach to static economics. Journal of Political Economy, 54, 97-115.
44. Menger, K. (1952). The formative years of Abraham Wald and his work in geometry. Annals of Mathematical Statistics, 23, 14-20.
45. Mongin, P. (2011). What the decision theorist could tell the Bayesian philosopher. Lecture presented at the 14th International Congress of Logic, Methodology and Philosophy of Science (CLMPS), July 19-26, 2011, Nancy, France.
46. Moscati, I. (2007). History of consumer demand theory 1871-1971: A Neo-Kantian rational reconstruction. European Journal of the History of Economic Thought, 14, 119-156.
47. Myerson, R. B. (1991). Game theory. Analysis of conflict. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
48. Neyman, J. (1938). L'estimation statistique, traitée comme un problème classique de probabilité. Actualités Scientifiques et Industrielles, 739, 25-57.
49. Neyman, J., & Pearson, E. S. (1933). The testing of statistical hypothesis in relation to probabilities a priori. Mathematical Proceedings of the Cambridge Philosophical Society, 29, 492-510.
50. Raiffa, H., & Schlaifer, R. (1961). Applied statistical decision theory. Boston, MA: Graduate School of Business Administration, Harvard University.
51. Robert, C. P, Chopin, N., & Rousseau, J. (2009). Harold Jeffreys' Theory of Probability revisited. Statistical Science, 24, 141-172.
52. Rossi, P. E. (1989). The ET interview: Professor Arnold Zellner. Econometric Theory, 5, 287-317.
53. Samuelson, P. A. (1948). Consumption theory in terms of revealed preference. Economica, 15 (November), 243-253.
54. Savage, L. J. (1949). The role of personal probability in statistics. Report of the Boulder Meeting, August 29-September 2, 1949. Econometrica, 18, 183-184 (abstract).
55. Savage, L. J. (1951). The theory of statistical decision. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 46, 55-67.
56. Savage, L. J. (1961/1964). The Foundations of Statistics reconsidered. In H. E. Kyburg & H. E. Smokler (Eds.), Studies in subjective probability (pp. 173-188). New York, NY: Wiley.
57. Savage, L. J. (1962a). Subjective probability and statistical practice. In L. J. Savage, M. S. Bartlett, G. A. Barnard, D. R. Cox, E. S. Pearson, & C. A. B. Smith (Eds.). The foundations of statistical inference: A discussion (pp. 9-35). London: Methuen.
58. Savage, L. J. (1962b). On the foundations of statistical inference: Discussion. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 57, 307-308.
59. Savage, L. J. (1972). The foundations of statistics (2nd ed.). New York, NY: Wiley.
60. Schlaifer, R. (1959). Probability and statistics for business decisions. New York, NY: McGraw-Hill.
61. Shafer, G. (1986). Savage revisited. Statistical Science, 1, 463-485.
62. Smith, V. (2008). Rationality in economics. Constructivist and ecological forms. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press.
63. Varian, H. (2009). Intermediate microeconomics. A modern approach (8th ed.). New York, NY: Norton.
64. von Neumann, J. (1928/1959). On the theory of games of strategy. In D. Luce & A. W. Tucker (Eds.), Contributions to the theory of games, Vol. IV (pp. 13-42), Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
65. von Neumann, J., & Morgenstern, O. (1953). Theory of games and economic behavior (3rd ed.). Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press [1st ed. 1944].
66. von Plato, J. (1994). Creating modern probability. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
67. Wakker, P. (2010). Prospect theory. For risk and ambiguity. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
68. Wald, A. (1939). Contributions to the theory of statistical estimation and testing hypotheses. Annals of Mathematical Statistics, 10, 299-326.
69. Wald, A. (1945a). Sequential tests of statistical hypotheses. Annals of Mathematical Statistics, 16, 117-186.
70. Wald, A. (1945b). Statistical decision functions which minimize the maximum risk. Annals of Mathematics, 46, 265-280.
71. Wald, A. (1947). An essentially complete class of admissible decision functions. Annals of Mathematical Statistics, 18, 549-555.
72. Wald, A. (1950a). Statistical decision functions. New York, NY: Wiley.
73. Wald, A. (1950b). Basic ideas of a general theory of statistical decision rules. In Proceedings of the International Congress of Mathematicians, Vol. 1 (pp. 231-243). Providence, RI: American Mathematical Society [Reprinted in Wald, A. (1955). Selected papers in statistics and probability (pp. 656-668). New York, NY: McGraw-Hill].
74. Wallis, A. W. (1980). The Statistical Research Group, 1942-1945. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 75, 320-330.
75. Wallis, A. W. (1991). Leonard Jimmie Savage 1917-1971. In E. Shils (Ed.), Remembering the University of Chicago: teachers, scientists, and scholars (pp. 436-451). Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
76. Wolfowitz, J. (1952). Abraham Wald (1902-1950). Annals of Mathematical Statistics, 23, 1-13.
77. Wong, S. (1978). The foundations of Paul Samuelson's revealed preference theory. London: Routledge.
78. Zellner, A. (1971). An introduction to Bayesian inference in econometrics. New York, NY: Wiley.
79. Ziliak, S. T. (2008). Guinessometrics: The economic foundation of 'Student's' t. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 22, 199-216.
80. Ziliak, S. T. (2011). W. S. Gosset and some neglected concepts in experimental statistics: Guinnessometrics II. Journal of Wine Economics, 6, 552-577.
81. Ziliak, S. T., & McCloskey, D. N. (2008). The cult of statistical significance. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press.