Impact of plain packaging of tobacco products on smoking in adults and children: An elicitation of international experts' estimates

BMC Public Health

Volumn 13, Issue 1, 2013, Pages

  Pechey, Rachel ^a   Spiegelhalter, David ^a,b   Marteau, Theresa M ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF CAMBRIDGE   (United Kingdom)

^b UNIVERSITY OF CAMBRIDGE   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Expert elicitation; Plain packaging; Tobacco

Indexed keywords

ADULT; ARTICLE; AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND; CHILD; HUMAN; INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION; NORTH AMERICA; PACKAGING; SMOKING; TOBACCO; UNITED KINGDOM;

ADULT; AUSTRALASIA; CHILD; GREAT BRITAIN; HUMANS; INTERNATIONALITY; NORTH AMERICA; PRODUCT PACKAGING; SMOKING; TOBACCO PRODUCTS;

MLCS; MLOWN;

EID: 84872033444     PISSN: None     EISSN: 14712458     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1186/1471-2458-13-18     Document Type: Article

References (33)

1. Emergency planning and mitigation at vesuvius: a new evidence-based approach. Baxter PJ, Aspinall WP, Neri A, Zuccaro G, Spence RJS, Cioni R, Woo G, J Volcanol Geotherm Res 2008 178 3 454 473 10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2008.08.015
2. The limits of consensus. Oppenheimer M, O'Neill BC, Webster M, Agrawala S, Science 2007 317 5844 1505 1506 10.1126/science.1144831 17872430 (Pubitemid 47417419)
3. Sample size calculation for clinical trials: the impact of clinician beliefs. Fayers PM, Cuschieri A, Fielding J, Craven J, Uscinska B, Freedman LS, Br J Cancer 1999 82 1 213 219
4. World Health Organisation, WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control Geneva, Switzerland: WHO 2003
5. Australian Government, Tobacco Plain Packaging Act 2011: An Act to discourage the use of tobacco products, and for related purposes Canberra: Australian Government 2011
6. Australian Government, Tobacco Plain Packaging Amendment Regulation 2012 (No 1) Canberra: Australian Government 2012
7. UK Department of Health, Healthy lives, healthy people: a tobacco control plan for England London: UK Government 2011
8. Goldberg M, Leifeld J, Kindra G, Madill-Marshall J, Lefebvre J, Martohardjona N, Vredenberg H, When Packages Can't Speak: Possible impacts of plain and generic packaging of tobacco products Toronto, Canada: prepared for Health Canada 1995 23326609
9. Effects of dissuasive packaging on young adult smokers. Hoek J, Wong C, Gendall P, Louviere J, Cong K, Tob Control 2011 20 3 183 188 10.1136/tc.2010.037861 20966135
10. Young adult smokers' perceptions of plain packaging: a pilot naturalistic study. Moodie C, Mackintosh AM, Hastings G, Ford A, Tob Control 2011 20 367 373 10.1136/tc.2011.042911 21752795
11. Estimating the impact of pictorial health warnings and "plain" cigarette packaging: evidence from experimental auctions among adult smokers in the United States. Thrasher JF, Rousu MC, Hammond D, Navarro A, Corrigan JR, Health Policy 2011 102 1 41 48 10.1016/j.healthpol.2011.06.003 21763026
12. How does increasingly plainer cigarette packaging influence adult smokers' perceptions about brand image? An experimental study. Wakefield MA, Germain D, Durkin SJ, Tob Control 2008 17 6 416 421 10.1136/tc.2008.026732 18827035
13. The case for the plain packaging of tobacco products. Freeman B, Chapman S, Rimmer M, Addiction 2008 103 4 580 590 10.1111/j.1360-0443.2008.02145.x 18339104 (Pubitemid 351389284)
14. Moodie C, Stead M, Bauld L, McNeill A, Angus K, Hinds K, Kwan I, Thomas J, Hastings G, O'Mara-Eves A, Plain tobacco packaging: A systematic review London: Public Health Research Consortium 2012
15. Snowdon C, Plain Packaging: Commercial expression, anti-smoking extremism and the risks of hyper-regulation London, UK: Adam Smith Institute 2012
16. Padilla J, The impact of plain packaging of cigarettes in UK: a simulation exercise Brussels: LECG Consulting Belgium, prepared for Philip Morris International 2010
17. Reed H, Analysis and review of J. Padilla, "The impact of plain packaging of cigarettes in the UK: a simulation exercise" Colchester, UK: Landman Economics, prepared for Action on Smoking and Health 2011
18. Milestones in the natural course of onset of cigarette use among adolescents. Gervais A, O'Loughlin J, Meshefedjian G, Bancej C, Tremblay M, Can Med Assoc J 2006 175 3 255 261 10.1503/cmaj.051235 (Pubitemid 44230824)
19. Nuclear waste and future societies: a look into the deep future. Hora SC, Von Winterfeldt D, Technol Forecast Soc Chang 1997 56 2 155 170 10.1016/S0040-1625(97)00075-9
20. Limits for the Precision and Value of Information from Dependent Sources. Clemen RT, Winkler RL, Oper Res 1985 33 2 427 442 10.1287/opre.33.2.427
21. Probability Judgments for Continuous Quantities: Linear Combinations and Calibration. Hora SC, Manag Sci 2004 50 5 597 604 10.1287/mnsc.1040.0205
22. SHELF: the Sheffield Elicitation Framework http://www.tonyohagan.co.uk/ shelf/
23. Bayesian Updating for Binary Variables: An Application in the UK Water Industry. Papathomas M, Hocking RJ, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series D (The Statistician) 2003 52 4 483 499 10.1046/j.0039-0526.2003.00451.x (Pubitemid 37524720)
24. Subjective prior distributions for modeling longitudinal continuous outcomes with non-ignorable dropout. Paddock SM, Ebener P, Stat Med 2009 28 4 659 678 10.1002/sim.3484 19012279
25. Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, 2010 National Drug Strategy Household Survey report Canberra: AIHW Drug statistics series. 2011
26. Bridges S, Gill V, Omole T, Sutton R, Wright V, Smoking, Drinking and Drug Use among Young People in England in 2010 London: NHS Information Centre for Health and Social Care 2011
27. Reid JL, Hammond D, Tobacco Use in Canada: Patterns and Trends, 2011 Edition Waterloo, ON: Propel Centre for Population Health Impact, University of Waterloo 2011
28. Robinson S, Harris H, Smoking and drinking among adults, 2009: A report on the 2009 General Lifestyle Survey London, UK: The Office for National Statistics 2011
29. Smith G, White V, Australian secondary school students' use of tobacco, alcohol, and over-the-counter and illicit substances in 2008 Melbourne, Australia: Centre for Behavioural Research in Cancer, Cancer Council Victoria 2009 23230938
30. O' Hagan A, Buck CE, Daneshkhah A, Eiser JR, Garthwaite PH, Jenkinson DJ, Oakley JE, Rakow T, Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts' Probabilities Chichester, UK: John Wiley & Sons 2006 22280323
31. Donovan R, Smokers' and non-smokers' reactions to standard packaging of cigarettes Perth, Australia: University of Western Australia 1993 23330015
32. Centre for Health Promotion, Effects of plain packaging on the image of tobacco products among youth Toronto: University of Toronto 1993
33. World Health Organisation, WHO Report on the Global Tobacco Epidemic, 2009: Implementing smoke-free environments Geneva, Switzerland: World Health Organisation 2009