Landmark prediction of long-term survival incorporating short-term event time information

Journal of the American Statistical Association

Volumn 107, Issue 500, 2012, Pages 1492-1501

  Parast, Layla ^a   Cheng, Su Chun ^b   Cai, Tianxi ^c  

^a RAND CORPORATION   (United States)

^b DANA FARBER CANCER INSTITUTE   (United States)

^c HARVARD SCHOOL OF PUBLIC HEALTH   (United States)

Author keywords

Risk prediction; Survival time; Varying coefficient model

Indexed keywords

EID: 84871945569     PISSN: 01621459     EISSN: 1537274X     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/01621459.2012.721281     Document Type: Article

References (60)

1. Barrett, B. J., Parfrey, P. S., Morgan, J., Barr, P., Fine, A., Goldstein, M. B., Handa, S. P., Jindal, K. K., Kjellstrand, C. M., Levin, A., Mandin, H., Muirhead, N., and Richardson, R. M. A. (1997), "Prediction of Early Death in End-Stage Renal Disease Patients Starting Dialysis," American Journal of Kidney Diseases, 29, 214-222.
2. Bauer, K. R., Brown, M., Cress, R. D., Parise, C. A., and Caggiano, V. (2007), "Descriptive Analysis of Estrogen Receptor (ER)-Negative, Progesterone Receptor (PR)-Negative, and HER2-Negative Invasive Breast Cancer, the So-Called Triple-Negative Phenotype: A Population-Based Study From the California Cancer Registry," Cancer, 109, 1721-1728.
3. Bickel, P. J., and Rosenblatt, M. (1973), "On Some Global Measures of the Deviations of Density Function Estimates," The Annals of Statistics, 1, 1071-1095.
4. Brier, G. W. (1950), "Verification of Forecasts Expressed in Terms of Probabil-ity," Monthly Weather Review, 78, 1-3.
5. Cai, T., Tian, L., Uno, H., Solomon, S. D., and Wei, L. (2010), "Calibrating Parametric Subject-Specific Risk Estimation," Biometrika, 97, 389-404.
6. Cai, T., Tian, L., and Wei, L. J. (2005), "Semiparametric Box-Cox Power Trans-formation Models for Censored Survival Observations," Biometrika, 92, 619-632.
7. Carroll, R. J., Ruppert, D., Stefanski, L. A., and Crainiceanu, C. (2006), Measurement Error in Nonlinear Models: A Modern Perspective, London: Chapman and Hall.
8. Cheung, A. K., Sarnak, M. J., Yan, G., Berkoben, M., Heyka, R., Kaufman, A., Lewis, J., Rocco, M., Toto, R., Windus, D., Ornt, D., Levey, A. S.; HEMO Study Group. (2004), "Cardiac Diseases in Maintenance Hemodialysis Pa-tients: Results of the HEMO Study," Kidney International, 65, 2380-2389.
9. Collins, A. J., Foley, R. N., Gilbertson, D. T., and Chen, S. C. (2009), "The State of Chronic Kidney Disease, ESRD, and Morbidity and Mortality in the First Year of Dialysis," Clinical Journal of the American Society of Nephrology, 4, S5.
10. Cook, N. R. (2007), "Use and Misuse of the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve in Risk Prediction," Circulation, 115, 928-935.
11. Cortese, G., and Andersen, P. K. (2010), "Competing Risks and Time-Dependent Covariates," Biometrical Journal, 52, 138-158.
12. Dabrowska, D. M. (1987), "Non-Parametric Regression With Censored Survival Time Data," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, 14, 181-197.
13. Dabrowska, D. M. (1989), "Uniform Consistency of the Kernel Conditional Kaplan-Meier Estimate," The Annals of Statistics, 17, 1157-1167.
14. Dalrymple, L. S., Johansen, K. L., Chertow, G. M., Cheng, S. C., Grimes, B., Gold, E. B., and Kaysen, G. A. (2010), "Infection-Related Hospitalizations in Older Patients With ESRD," American Journal of Kidney Diseases, 56, 522-530.
15. Datta, S., Satten, G. A., and Datta, S. (2000), "Nonparametric Estimation for the Three-Stage Irreversible Illness-Death Model," Biometrics, 56, 841-847.
16. Eguchi, S., and Copas, J. (2002), "A Class of Logistic-Type Discriminant Func-tions," Biometrika, 89, 1-22.
17. Fan, J., and Zhang, W. (1999), "Statistical Estimation in Varying Coefficient Models," The Annals of Statistics, 27, 1491-1518.
18. Fan, J., and Zhang, W. (2008), "Statistical Methods With Varying Coefficient Models," Statis-tics and Its Interface, 1, 179.
19. Fine, J., Jiang, H., and Chappell, R. (2001), "On Semi-Competing Risks Data," Biometrika, 88, 907-919.
20. Foley, R., Culleton, B., Parfrey, P., Harriett, J., Kent, G., Murray, D., and Barre, P. E. (1997), "Cardiac Disease in Diabetic End-Stage Renal Disease," Diabetologia, 40, 1307-1312.
21. Folsom, A. R., Chambless, L. E., Ballantyne, C. M., Coresh, J., Heiss, G., Wu, K. K., Boerwinkle, E., Mosley, T. H., Jr, Sorlie, P., Diao, G., and Sharrett, A. R. (2006), "An Assessment of Incremental Coronary Risk Prediction Using C-Reactive Protein and Other Novel Risk Markers: The Atheroscle-rosis Risk in Communities Study," Archives of Internal Medicine, 166, 1368.
22. Gerds, T. A., Cai, T., and Schumacher, M. (2008), "The Performance of Risk Prediction Models," Biometrical Journal, 50, 457-479.
23. Gerds, T. A., and Schumacher, M. (2006), "Consistent Estimation of the Ex-pected Brier Score in General Survival Models With Right-Censored Event Times," Biometrical Journal, 48, 1029-1040.
24. Hastie, T., and Tibshirani, R. (1993), "Varying-Coefficient Models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B, 55, 757-796.
25. Hatteville, L., Mahe, C., and Hill, C. (2002), "Prediction of the Long-Term Survival in Breast Cancer Patients According to the Present Oncological Status," Statistics in Medicine, 21, 2345-2354.
26. Heagerty, P. J., and Zheng, Y. (2005), "Survival Model Predictive Accuracy and ROC Curves," Biometrics, 61, 92-105.
27. Herzog, C. A., Mangrum, J. M., and Passman, R. (2008), "Non-Coronary Heart Disease in Dialysis Patients: Sudden Cardiac Death and Dialysis Patients," Seminars in Dialysis, 21, 300-307.
28. Hirschtick, R. E., Glassroth, J., Jordan, M. C., Wilcosky, T. C., Wallace, J. M., Kvale, P. A., Markowitz, N., Rosen, M. J., Mangura, B. T., Hopewell, P. C., and the Pulmonary Complications of the HIV-Infection Study Group. (1995), "Bacterial Pneumonia in Persons Infected With the Human Im-munodeficiency Virus," New England Journal of Medicine, 333, 845.
29. Jiang, H., Fine, J. P., and Chappell, R. (2005), "Semiparametric Analysis of Survival Data With Left Truncation and Dependent Right Censoring," Bio-metrics, 61, 567-575.
30. Kalbfleisch, J. D., and Prentice, R. L. (2002), The Statistical Analysis of Failure Time Data, New York: Wiley.
31. Kay, R. (1986), "A Markov Model for Analysing Cancer Markers and Disease States in Survival Studies," Biometrics, 42, 855-865.
32. Kerr, K. F., and Pepe, M. S. (2011), "Joint Modeling, Covariate Adjustment, and Interaction: Contrasting Notions in Risk Prediction Models and Risk Prediction Performance," Epidemiology, 22, 805.
33. Klein, J. P., Keiding, N., and Copelan, E. A. (1994), "Plotting Summary Predictions in Multistate Survival Models: Probabilities of Relapse and Death in Remission for Bone Marrow Transplantation Patients," Statistics in Medicine, 12, 2315-2332.
34. Lawless, J. F., and Yuan, Y. (2010), "Estimation of Prediction Error for Survival Models," Statistics in Medicine, 29, 262-274.
35. Lee, S. J., Klein, J. P., Barrett, A. J., Ringden, O., Antin, J. H., Cahn, J. Y., Carabasi, M. H., Gale, R. P., Giralt, S., Hale, G. A., Ilhan, O., Mc-Carthy, P. L., Socie, G., Verdonck, L. F., Weisdorf, D. J., and Horowitz, M. M. (2002), "Severity of Chronic Graft-Versus-Host Disease: Associa-tion With Treatment-Related Mortality and Relapse," Blood, 100, 406-414.
36. Murphy, S. T., and Parfrey, P. S. (2000), "The Impact of Anemia Correction on Cardiovascular Disease in End-Stage Renal Disease," Seminars in Nephrol-ogy, 20, 350.
37. Osborne, C. K. (1998), "Tamoxifen in the Treatment of Breast Cancer," New England Journal of Medicine, 339, 1609.
38. Parast, L., and Cai, T. (2010), "Landmark Prediction of Survival," Har-vard University Biostatistics Working Paper Series, Working Paper 123 [online]. Available at http://www.bepress.com/harvardbiostat/paper123/.
39. Parast, L., Cheng, S. C., and Cai, T. (2011), "Incorporating Short-Term Out-come Information to Predict Long-Term Survival With Discrete Markers," Biometrical Journal, 53, 294-307.
40. Park, B., Kim, W., Ruppert, D., Jones, M., Signorini, D., and Kohn, R. (1997), "Simple Transformation Techniques for Improved Non-Parametric Regres-sion," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, 24, 145-163.
41. Park, Y., and Wei, L. J. (2003), "Estimating Subject-Specific Survival Func-tions Under the Accelerated Failure Time Model,"Biometrika, 90, 717-723.
42. Pencina, M. J., D'Agostino, R. B., Sr, D'Agostino, R. B., Jr, and Vasan, R. S. (2008), "Evaluating the Added Predictive Ability of a New Marker: From Area Under the ROC Curve to Reclassification and Beyond," Statistics in Medicine, 27, 157-172.
43. Pollard, D. (1990), Empirical Processes: Theory and Applications, Hayward, CA: Institute of Mathematical Statistics.
44. Putter, H., van der Hage, J., de Bock, G. H., Elgalta, R., and van de Velde, C. J. H. (2006), "Estimation and Prediction in a Multi-State Model for Breast Cancer," Biometrical Journal, 48, 366-380.
45. Robins, J. M., and Ritov, Y. (1997), "Toward a Curse of Dimensionality Appro-priate (CODA) Asymptotic Theory for Semi-Parametric Models," Statistics in Medicine, 16, 285-319.
46. Robins, J. M., and Rotnitzky, A. (1992), "Recovery of Information and Adjust-ment for Dependent Censoring Using Surrogate Markers," in Aids Epidemi-ology: Methodological Issues, eds., N. Jewell, K. Dietz, and V. Farewell, Boston, MA: Birkhäuser, pp. 297-331.
47. Rotnitzky, A., and Robins, J. (2005), "Inverse Probability Weighted Estima-tion in Survival Analysis," in Encyclopedia of Biostatistics, pp. 2619-2625.
48. Sands, J. J., Etheredge, G. D., Shankar, A., Graff, J., Loeper, J., McKendry, M., and Farrell, R. (2006), "Predicting Hospitalization and Mortality in End-Stage Renal Disease (ESRD) Patients Using an Index of Coexisting Disease (ICED)-Based Risk Stratification Model," Disease Management, 9, 224-235.
49. Saravanan, P., and Davidson, N. C. (2010), "Risk Assessment for Sudden Car-diac Death in Dialysis Patients," Circulation: Arrhythmia and Electrophys-iology, 3, 553.
50. Siannis, F., Farewell, V., and Head, J. (2007), "A Multi-State Model for Joint Modeling of Terminal and Non-Terminal Events With Application to White-hall II," Statistics in Medicine, 26, 426-442.
51. Swets, J. A., and Pickett, R. M. (1982), Evaluation of Diagnostic Systems: Methods From Signal Detection Theory, New York: Academic Press.
52. Tian, L., Cai, T., Goetghebeur, E., and Wei, L. (2007), "Model Evaluation Based on the Sampling Distribution of Estimated Absolute Prediction Error," Biometrika, 94, 297-311.
53. United States Renal Data System (USRDS) (2007), US Renal Data System 2007 Annual Data Report: Atlas of Chronic Kidney Disease and End-Stage Renal Disease in the United States, Bethesda, MD: National Institutes of Health, National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases.
54. United States Renal Data System (USRDS) (2010), US Renal Data System 2010 Annual Data Report: Atlas of Chronic Kidney Disease and End-Stage Renal Disease in the United States, Bethesda, MD: National Institutes of Health, National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases.
55. Uno, H., Cai, T., Tian, L., and Wei, L. J. (2007), "Evaluating Prediction Rules for t-Year Survivors With Censored Regression Models," Journal of the American Statistical Association, 102, 527-537.
56. Van Houwelingen, H. C., and Putter, H. (2008), "Dynamic Predicting by Land-marking as an Alternative for Multi-State Modeling: An Application to Acute Lymphoid Leukemia Data," Lifetime Data Analysis, 14, 447-463.
57. Wand, M., Marron, J., and Ruppert, D. (1991), "Transformations in Density Estimation," Journal of the American Statistical Association, 86, 343-353.
58. Wang, T. J., Gona, P., Larson, M. G., Tofler, G. H., Levy, D., Newton-Cheh, C., Jacques, P. F., Rifai, N., Selhub, J., Robins, S. J., Benjamin, E. J., D'Agostino, R. B., and Vasan, R. S. (2006), "Multiple Biomarkers for the Prediction of First Major Cardiovascular Events and Death," New England Journal of Medicine, 355, 2631-2639.
59. Wilson, P. W. F., D'Agostino, R. B., Levy, D., Belanger, A. M., Silber-shatz, H., and Kannel, W. B. (1998), "Prediction of Coronary Heart Disease Using Risk Factor Categories," Circulation, 97, 1837-1847.
60. Zheng, Y., Cai, T., Pepe, M. S., and Levy, W. C. (2008), "Time-Dependent Predictive Values of Prognostic Biomarkers With Failure Time Out-come," Journal of the American Statistical Association, 103, 362-368.