Reducing overconfidence in the interval judgments of experts

Risk Analysis

Volumn 30, Issue 3, 2010, Pages 512-523

  Speirs Bridge, Andrew ^a,b   Fidler, Fiona ^a,b   McBride, Marissa ^b   Flander, Louisa ^c   Cumming, Geoff ^a   Burgman, Mark ^b  

^a LA TROBE UNIVERSITY   (Australia)

^b UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE   (Australia)

^c UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE   (Australia)

Author keywords

Expert elicitation; Interval judgment; Overconfidence

Indexed keywords

CONFIDENCE INTERVAL; CONFIDENCE LEVELS; EXPERT ELICITATION; EXPERT OPINION; HIT RATE; INFECTIOUS DISEASE; INTERVAL PREDICTION; LIMITED DATA; LOWER LIMITS; MARINE INVERTEBRATES; META-ANALYSIS; PUBLIC HEALTH EXPERTS; UPPER LIMITS;

HEALTH RISKS; RISK ASSESSMENT; SAFETY FACTOR;

RISK ANALYSIS;

CONFIDENCE INTERVAL; EXPERT SYSTEM; INFECTIOUS DISEASE; INVERTEBRATE; MARINE ECOSYSTEM; META-ANALYSIS; PUBLIC HEALTH; RISK ASSESSMENT;

ARTICLE; CONFIDENCE INTERVAL; DECISION MAKING; HUMAN; PUBLIC HEALTH; RISK ASSESSMENT;

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS; HUMANS; JUDGMENT; PUBLIC HEALTH; RISK ASSESSMENT;

INVERTEBRATA;

EID: 77949400709     PISSN: 02724332     EISSN: 15396924     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2009.01337.x     Document Type: Article

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