Effects of changes in the driving forces on water quality and plankton dynamics in three Swiss lakes - long-term simulations with BELAMO

Freshwater Biology

Volumn 58, Issue 1, 2013, Pages 10-35

  Dietzel, Anne ^a,b   Mieleitner, Johanna ^a,c   Kardaetz, Sascha ^a,d   Reichert, Peter ^a,b  

^a SWISS FEDERAL INSTITUTE OF AQUATIC SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY   (Switzerland)

^b ETH ZURICH   (Switzerland)

^c AGROSCOPE RECKENHOLZ TÄNIKON RESEARCH STATION ART   (Switzerland)

^d NONE   (Switzerland)

Author keywords

Input loads; Lake modelling; Long term; Model bias; Universality

Indexed keywords

EID: 84871021349     PISSN: 00465070     EISSN: 13652427     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/fwb.12031     Document Type: Article

References (59)

1. Arhonditsis G.B. & Brett M.T. (2004) Evaluation of the current state of mechanistic aquatic biogeochemical modeling. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 271, 13-26.
2. Baumert H.Z. & Benndorf J. (2005) Einführung in das GETAS-Projekt. Wasserwirtschaft, 95, 10-12.
3. Bayarri M.J., Berger J.O., Paulo R., Sacks J., Cafeo J.A., Cavendish J. et al. (2007) A framework for validation of computer models. Technometrics, 49, 138-154.
4. Benndorf J. & Recknagel F. (1982) Problems of application of the ecological model SALMO to lakes and reservoirs having various trophic states. Ecological Modelling, 17, 129-145.
5. Box G.E.P. & Cox O.R. (1964) An analysis of transformation. Journal of Royal Statistical Society B: Statistical Methodology, 26, 211-252.
6. Boyle D.P., Gupta H.V. & Sorooshian S. (2000) Toward improved calibration of hydrologic models: combining the strengths of manual and automatic methods. Water Resources Research, 36, 3663-3674.
7. Boyle D.P., Gupta H.V. & Sorooshian S. (2003) Multicriteria calibration of hydrologic models. In: Calibration of Watershed Models (Eds Q. Duan, H.V. Gupta, S. Sorooshian, A.N. Rousseau & R. Turcotte ), pp. 185-196. American Geophysical Union, Washington, DC.
8. Bruce L.C., Hamilton D., Imberger J., Gal G., Gophen M., Zohary T. et al. (2006) A numerical simulation of the role of zooplankton in C, N and P cycling in Lake Kinneret, Israel. Ecological Modelling, 193, 412-436.
9. Brun R., Reichert P. & Künsch H.-R. (2001) Practical identifiability analysis of large environmental simulation models. Water Resources Research, 37, 1015-1030.
10. Bürgi H.-R. (1994) Seeplankton und Seesanierung in der Schweiz. Limnological Reports Danube 1994, EAWAG, Dübendorf, Switzerland and IAD, Vienna, Austria. In German.
11. Burmaster D.E. (1979) The continuous culture of phytoplankton: mathematical equivalence among three steady-state models. The American Naturalist, 113, 123-134.
12. Craig P.S., Goldstein M., Rougier J.C. & Seheult A.H. (2001) Bayesian forecasting for complex systems using computer simulators. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 96, 717-729.
13. Craig P.S., Goldstein M., Seheult A.H. & Smith J.A. (1996) Bayes linear strategies for matching hydrocarbon reservoir history. In: Bayesian Statistics, Vol. 5 (Eds J.M. Bernardo, J.O. Berger & A.P. Dawid ), pp. 69-95. Clarendon Press, Oxford.
14. Cussler E.L. (2009) Diffusion: Mass Transfer in Fluid Systems, 3rd edn. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
15. Dietzel A. & Reichert P. (2012) Calibration of computationally demanding and structurally uncertain models with an application to a lake water quality model. Environmental Modelling & Software, 38, 129-146. doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2012.05.007.
16. Droop M.R. (1973) Some thoughts of nutrient limitation in algae. Journal of Phycology, 9, 264-272.
17. Elliott J.A., Irish A.E. & Reynolds C.S. (2010) Modelling phytoplankton dynamics in fresh waters: affirmation of the PROTECH approach to simulation. Freshwater Reviews, 3, 75-96.
18. Elliott J.A., Irish A.E., Reynolds C.S. & Tett P. (1999a) Sensitivity analysis of PROTECH, a new approach in phytoplankton modelling. Hydrobiologia, 414, 45-51.
19. Elliott J.A., Jones I.D. & Thackeray S.J. (2006) Testing the sensitivity of phytoplankton communities to changes in water temperature and nutrient load, in a temperate lake. Hydrobiologia, 559, 401-411.
20. Elliott J.A., Persson I., Thackeray S.J. & Blenckner T. (2007) Phytoplankton modelling of Lake Erken, Sweden by linking the models PROBE and PROTECH. Ecological Modelling, 202, 421-426.
21. Elliott J.A., Reynolds C.S., Irish A.E. & Tett P. (1999b) Exploring the potential of the PROTECH model to investigate phytoplankton community theory. Hydrobiologia, 414, 37-43.
22. Elliott J.A., Reynolds C.S., Irish A.E. & Tett P. (2000) Modelling freshwater phytoplankton communities: an exercise in validation. Ecological Modelling, 128, 19-26.
23. Elliott J.A. & Thackeray S.J. (2004) The simulation of phytoplankton in shallow and deep lakes using PROTECH. Ecological Modelling, 178, 357-369.
24. Elliott J.A., Thackeray S.J., Huntingford C. & Jones R.G. (2005) Combining a regional climate model with a phytoplankton community model to predict future changes in phytoplankton in lakes. Freshwater Biology, 50, 1404-1411.
25. Gammeter S. & Forster R. (2002) Langzeitunterschungen im Zürichobersee 1972-2000. Technical report, Wasserversorgung Zürich, Qualitätsüberwachung.
26. Gammeter S., Forster R. & Zimmerman U. (1996) Limnologische Untersuchung des Walensees 1972-1995. Technical report, Wasserversorgung Zürich, Qualitätsüberwachung.
27. Gammeter S., Forster R. & Zimmerman U. (1997) Limnologische Untersuchung des Zürichsees 1972-1996. Technical report, Wasserversorgung Zürich, Qualitätsüberwachung.
28. Gupta H.V., Bastidas L.A., Vrugt J.A. & Sorooshian S. (2003) Multiple criteria global optimization for watershed model calibration. In: Calibration of Watershed Models (Eds Q. Duan, H.V. Gupta, S. Sorooshian, A.N. Rousseau & R. Turcotte ), pp. 125-132. American Geophysical Union, Washington, DC.
29. Gupta H.V., Sorooshian S. & Yapo P.O. (1998) Toward improved calibration of hydrologic models: multiple and noncommensurable measures of information. Water Resources Research, 34, 751-763.
30. Hamilton D.P. & Schladow S.G. (1997) Prediction of water quality in lakes and reservoirs. Part i - Model description. Ecological Modelling, 96, 91-110.
31. Higdon D., Kennedy M., Cavendish J.C., Cafeo J.A. & Ryne R.D. (2004) Combining field data and computer simulations for calibration and prediction. SIAM Journal on Scientific Computing, 26, 448-466.
32. Holling C.S. (1959a) The components of predation as revealed by a study of small-mammal predation of the European pine sawfly. The Canadian Entomologist, 91, 293-320.
33. Holling C.S. (1959b) Some characteristics of simple types of predation and parasitism. The Canadian Entomologist, 91, 385-398.
34. Jørgensen S.E. (2010) A review of recent developments in lake modelling. Ecological Modelling, 221, 689-692.
35. Jørgensen S.E., Nielsen S.N. & Jørgensen L. (1991) Handbook of Ecological Parameters and Ecotoxicology. Elsevier, Amsterdam.
36. Kennedy M.C. & O'Hagan A. (2001) Bayesian calibration of computer models. Journal of Royal Statistical Society B: Statistical Methodology, 63, 425-464.
37. Madsen H. (2000) Automatic calibration of a conceptual rainfall-runoff model using multiple objectives. Journal of Hydrology, 235, 276-288.
38. Madsen H., Wilson G. & Ammentorp H.C. (2002) Comparison of different automated strategies for calibration of rainfall-runoff models. Journal of Hydrology, 261, 48-59.
39. Mieleitner J., Borsuk M., Bürgi H.-R. & Reichert P. (2008) Identifying functional groups of phytoplankton using data from three lakes of different trophic state. Aquatic Sciences, 70, 30-46.
40. Mieleitner J. & Reichert P. (2006) Analysis of the transferability of a biogeochemical lake model to lakes of different trophic state. Ecological Modelling, 194, 49-61.
41. Mieleitner J. & Reichert P. (2008) Modelling functional groups of phytoplankton in three lakes of different trophic state. Ecological Modelling, 211, 279-291.
42. Mooij W.M., Trolle D., Jeppesen E., Arhonditsis G.B., Belolipetsky P.V., Chitamwebwa D.B.R. et al. (2010) Challenges and opportunities for integrating lake ecosystem modelling approaches. Aquatic Ecology, 44, 633-667.
43. Omlin M., Brun P. & Reichert P. (2001a) Biogeochemical model of Lake Zürich: sensitivity, identifiability and uncertainty analysis. Ecological Modelling, 141, 105-123.
44. Omlin M., Reichert P. & Forster R. (2001b) Biogeochemical model of Lake Zürich: model equations and results. Ecological Modelling, 141, 77-103.
45. Petzoldt T., Rolinski S., Rinke K., König M., Baumert H.Z. & Benndorf J. (2005) SALMO: Die ökologische Komponente des gekoppelten Modells. Wasserwirtschaft, 95, 28-33.
46. Redfield A.C. (1958) The biological control of chemical factors in the environment. American Scientist, 46, 205-222.
47. Reichert P. (1994) AQUASIM - a tool for simulation and data analysis of aquatic systems. Water Science & Technology, 30, 21-30.
48. Reichert P. (2005) UNCSIM - a computer programme for statistical inference and sensitivity, identifiability, and uncertainty analysis. In: Proceedings of the 2005 European Simulation and Modelling Conference (ESM 2005), Oct. 24-26, Porto, Portugal, pp. 51-55. EUROSIS-ETI.
49. Reichert P. & Schuwirth N. (2010) A generic framework for deriving process stoichiometry in environmental models. Environmental Modelling & Software, 25, 1241-1251.
50. Reichert P. & Schuwirth N. (2012) Linking statistical description of bias to multi-objective model calibration. Water Resources Research, 48, doi:10.1029/2011WR011391.
51. Reynolds C.S., Irish A.E. & Elliott J.A. (2001) The ecological basis for simulating phytoplankton responses to environmental change (PROTECH). Ecological Modelling, 140, 271-291.
52. Rinke K., Eder M., Peeters F., Kümmerlin R., Gal G. & Rothaupt K.-O. (2009) Simulating phytoplankton community dynamics in Lake Constance with a coupled hydrodynamic-ecological model. Verhandlungen der Internationalen Vereinigung für theoretische und angewandte Limnologie, 30, 701-704.
53. Romero J.R., Antenucci J.P. & Imberger J. (2004) One- and three-dimensional biogeochemical simulations of two differing reservoirs. Ecological Modelling, 174, 143-160.
54. Schladow S.G. & Hamilton D.P. (1997) Prediction of water quality in lakes and reservoirs. Part ii - Model calibration, sensitivity analysis and application. Ecological Modelling, 96, 111-123.
55. Schwarzenbach R.P., Gschwend P.M. & Imboden D.M. (2003) Environmental Organic Chemistry, 2nd edn. John Wiley, New York.
56. Sobek S., Durisch-Kaiser E., Zurbrügg R., Wongfun N., Wessels M., Pasche N. et al. (2009) Organic carbon burial efficiency in lake sediments controlled with oxygen exposure time and sediment source. Limnology & Oceanography, 6, 2243-2254.
57. Tanentzap A.J., Hamilton D.P. & Yan N.D. (2007) Calibrating the Dynamic Reservoir Simulation Model (DYRESM) and filling required data gaps for one-dimensional thermal profile predictions in a boreal lake. Limnology & Oceanography: Methods, 5, 484-494.
58. Trolle D., Skovgaard H. & Jeppesen E. (2008) The water framework directive: setting the phosphorus loading target for a deep lake in Denmark using the 1D lake ecosystem model DYRESM-CAEDYM. Ecological Modelling, 219, 138-152.
59. Yapo P.O., Gupta H.V. & Sorooshian S. (1998) Multi-objective global optimization for hydrologic models. Journal of Hydrology, 204, 83-97.