Determining quantitative road safety targets by applying statistical prediction techniques and a multi-stage adjustment procedure

Accident Analysis and Prevention

Volumn 50, Issue , 2013, Pages 566-577

  Wittenberg, P ^a   Sever, K ^a   Knoth, S ^a   Sahin, N ^a   Bondarenko, J ^a  

^a HELMUT SCHMIDT UNIVERSITY   (Germany)

Author keywords

European Union; Germany; Policy making in safety; Quantitative road safety targets; Road mortality; Top down approach

Indexed keywords

EUROPEAN UNION; GERMANY; POLICY MAKING; ROAD MORTALITY; ROAD SAFETY; TOP-DOWN APPROACH;

POPULATION STATISTICS; REGRESSION ANALYSIS; ROADS AND STREETS;

ACCIDENT PREVENTION;

ALGORITHM; ARTICLE; EUROPEAN UNION; FACTUAL DATABASE; GERMANY; HUMAN; MORTALITY; POLICY; POPULATION DYNAMICS; PREDICTIVE VALUE; SAFETY; STATISTICAL MODEL; TRAFFIC ACCIDENT;

ACCIDENTS, TRAFFIC; ALGORITHMS; DATABASES, FACTUAL; EUROPEAN UNION; GERMANY; HUMANS; LINEAR MODELS; MODELS, STATISTICAL; POPULATION DYNAMICS; PREDICTIVE VALUE OF TESTS; PUBLIC POLICY; SAFETY;

EID: 84870300874     PISSN: 00014575     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2012.06.006     Document Type: Article

References (38)

1. R.E. Allsop, N.N. Sze, and S.C. Wong An update on the association between setting quantified road safety targets and road fatality reduction Accident Analysis & Prevention 43 2011 1279 1283
2. C. Bax Policy instruments for managing EU road safety targets: carrots, sticks or sermons? R-2011-15 2011 SWOV Institute for Road Safety Research Leidschendam
3. S. Bosetti, C. Corrias, R. Scatamacchia, and A. Sitran The preparation of the European Road Safety Action Program 2011-2020, vol. 1. Ex-post evaluation of the Road Safety Action Program RSAP: Final Report 2010 Transport & Mobility Leuven Leuven
4. J. Broughton, and J. Knowles Providing the numerical context for british casualty reduction targets Safety Science 48 2010 1134 1141
5. Bundesministerium für Verkehr, Bau und Stadtentwicklung, 2011. Verkehrssicherheitsprogramm 2011.
6. C.A. Cameron, and F.A.G. Windmeijer An r-squared measure of goodness of fit for some common nonlinear regression models Journal of Econometrics 77 1997 329 342
7. J. Chapelon, and S. Lassarre Road safety in France: the hard path toward science-based policy Safety Science 48 2010 1151 1159
8. R. Elvik Quantified road safety targets: a useful tool for policy making? Accident Analysis & Prevention 25 1993 569 583
9. R. Elvik Road safety management by objectives: a critical analysis of the norwegian approach Accident Analysis & Prevention 40 2008 1115 1122
10. R. Elvik The stability of long-term trends in the number of traffic fatalities in a sample of highly motorised countries Accident Analysis & Prevention 42 2010 245 260
11. R. Elvik Why some road safety problems are more difficult to solve than others Accident Analysis & Prevention 42 2010 1089 1096
12. ETSC 2010 Road safety target outcome: 100,000 fewer deaths since 2001 5th Road Safety PIN Report. European Transport Safety Council 2011
13. European Commission, 2001. European transport policy for 2010: time to decide COM(2001) 370 final. White paper. European Commission, Brussels.
14. European Commission, 2003. European Road Safety Action Programme. Halving the number of road accident victims in the European Union by 2010: a shared responsibility. Communication from the Commission COM(2003) 311 final. Brussels.
15. European Commission, 2006. Keep Europe moving - sustainable mobility for our continent mid-term review of the European Commission's 2001 Transport. White paper. Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament. Brussels.
16. European Commission, 2010. Towards a European road safety area: policy orientations on road safety 2011-2020 COM(2010) 389 final. European Commission, Brussels.
17. European Commission, 2011. Roadmap to a single European transport area - towards a competitive and resource efficient transport system COM(2011) 144 final. White paper. Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg.
18. Eurostat Glossary for Transport Statistics third ed. 2003 Office for Official Publ. of the European Communities Luxembourg
19. Eurostat Eurostat regional yearbook 2010 2010 Brussels
20. Eurostat European Union database directory: online and offline electronic information services 2011 Office for Official Publications of the European Communities
21. K. Giannakouris Ageing characterises the demographic perspectives of the european societies Eurostat-Statistics in Focus 72 2008
22. E. Hermans, T. Brijs, G. Wets, and K. Vanhoof Benchmarking road safety: lessons to learn from a data envelopment analysis Accident Analysis & Prevention 41 2009 174 182
23. S. Lassarre Analysis of progress in road safety in ten european countries Accident Analysis & Prevention 33 2001 743 751
24. J. Luoma, and M. Sivak Characteristics and availability of fatal road-crash databases in 20 countries worldwide Journal of Safety Research 38 2007 323 327
25. P. McCullagh, and J.A. Nelder Generalized Linear Models, vol. 37 2nd ed. 1989 Chapman and Hall London
26. J. Mikulik Road Safety in an Enlarged Europe: Challenges and Opportunities for the 25 EU Member States. The 6th European Transport Safety Lecture 2004 ETSC Belgium; Brussels
27. Ministerium für Bauen und Verkehr des Landes Nordrhein-Westfalen, 2006. Verkehrssicherheit in NRW. Das Verkehrssicherheitsprogramm 2004. Düsseldorf.
28. OECD/ITF Towards zero: ambitious road safety targets and the safe system approach 2008 OECD Paris
29. R Development Core Team R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing 2011 R Foundation for Statistical Computing Austria, Vienna
30. SafetyNet, 2009. Quantitative road safety targets, Retrieved January 03, 2012. http://ec.europa.eu/transport/road-safety/specialist/knowledge/pdf/ quantitative-road-safety-targets.pdf.
31. Statistisches Bundesamt, 2010. Bevölkerung und Erwerbstä tigkeit. Bevölkerung in den Bundesländern, dem früheren Bundesgebiet und den neuen Ländern bis 2060. Ergebnisse der 12. Koordinierten Bevölkerungsvorausberechnung. Wiesbaden.
32. Statistisches Bundesamt, 2010. Verkehrsunfälle Zeitreihen 2009. Wiesbaden.
33. A. Tolón-Becerra, X. Lastra-Bravo, and F. Bienvenido- Bárcena Proposal for territorial distribution of the 2010 eu road safety target Accident Analysis & Prevention 41 2009 1008 1015
34. United Nations, 2010. 64/255. Improving global road safety. Resolution adopted by the General Assembly A/64/L.44/Rev.1 and Add.1. General Assembly.
35. Vägverket Swedish Road Administration, 2009. Management by objectives for road safety work - analysis of the road safety development.
36. P. Wesemann, Y.v. Norden, and H. Stipdonk An outlook on dutch road safety in 2020; future developments of exposure, crashes and policy Safety Science 48 2010 1098 1105
37. S.C. Wong, N.N. Sze, H.F. Yip, B.P.Y. Loo, W.T. Hung, and H.K. Lo Association between setting quantified road safety targets and road fatality reduction Accident Analysis and Prevention 38 2006 997 1005
38. World Health Organisation World report on road traffic injury prevention 2004 Geneva