Modeling the temperature evolution of Svalbard permafrost during the 20th and 21st century

Cryosphere

Volumn 5, Issue 1, 2011, Pages 67-79

  Etzelmuller B ^a   Schuler, T V ^a   Isaksen, K ^b   Christiansen, H H ^a,c   Farbrot, H ^a   Benestad, R ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF OSLO   (Norway)

^b NORWEGIAN METEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE   (Norway)

^c UNIVERSITY CENTRE IN SVALBARD   (Norway)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ACTIVE LAYER; AIR TEMPERATURE; BOREHOLE; CALIBRATION; CLIMATE MODELING; DATA SET; GLOBAL CLIMATE; HISTORICAL RECORD; PERMAFROST; SNOW COVER; SOIL PROPERTY; TEMPERATURE PROFILE; TWENTIETH CENTURY; TWENTY FIRST CENTURY; WATER CONTENT;

ARCTIC; SVALBARD; SVALBARD AND JAN MAYEN;

CALLUNA VULGARIS;

EID: 79551716809     PISSN: 19940416     EISSN: 19940424     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.5194/tc-5-67-2011     Document Type: Article

References (65)

1. Aagaard, K. and Carmack, E. C.: The Role of Sea Ice and Other Fresh-Water in the Arctic Circulation, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 94, 14485-14498, 1989.
2. ACIA: Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 1042 pp., 2005.
3. Benestad, R. E.: A comparison between two empirical (Pubitemid 33112380)
4. Benestad, R. E.: Climate change scenarios for northern Europe from multi-model IPCC AR4 climate simulations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L17704, doi:10.1029/2005gl023401, 2005. (Pubitemid 41536229)
5. Benestad, R. E.: Empirical-Statistical downscaled Arctic Temperature and precipitation, Series, Met. no Report 12/2008 Climate, Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, 2008.
6. Benestad, R. E.: A new global set of downscaled temperature scenarios, J. Climate, doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3687.1, in press, 2011.
7. Benestad, R. E., Førland, E. J., and Hannssen-Bauer, I.: Empirically downscaled temperature scenarios for Svalbard, Atmos. Sci. Lett., 3, 71-93, 2002.
8. Blok, D., Heijmans, M. M. P. D., Schaepman-Strub, G., Kononov, A. V., Maximov, T. C., and Berendse, F.: Shrub expansion may reduce summer permafrost thaw in Siberian tundra, Glob. Change Biol., 16, 1296-1305, 2010.
9. Burn, C. R. and Zhang, Y.: Permafrost and climate change at Herschel Island (Qikiqtaruq), Yukon Territory, Canada, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 114, F02001, doi:10.1029/2008JF001087, 2009.
10. Büdel, J.: Climatic Geomorphology, Princeton University Press, Princeton, 443 pp., 1982.
11. Christiansen, H. H.: Thermal regime of ice-wedge cracking in Adventdalen, Svalbard, Permafrost Periglac., 16, 87-98, 2005. (Pubitemid 40435773)
12. Christiansen, H. H., Etzelmüller, B., Isaksen, K., Juliussen, H., Farbrot, H., Humlum, O., Johansson, M., Ingeman-Nielsen, T., Kristensen, L., Hjort, J., Holmlund, P., Sannel, A. B. K., Sigsgaard, C., Akerman, H. J., Foged, N., Blikra, L. H., Pernosky, M. A., and Odegard, R. S.: The Thermal State of Permafrost in the Nordic Area during the International Polar Year 2007-2009, Permafrost Periglac., 21, 156-181, doi:10.1002/Ppp.687, 2010.
13. Davis, M. C. R., Hamza, O., and Harris, C.: The effect of rise in mean annual temperature on the stability of rock slopess containing ice-filled discontinuities, Permafrost Periglac., 12, 137-144, 2001.
14. Engelhardt, M., Hauck, C., and Salzmann, N.: Influence of atmospheric forcing parameters on modelled mountain permafrost evolution, Meteorol. Z., 19(5), 491-500, doi:10.1127/0941- 2948/2010/0476, 2010.
15. Etzelmüller, B., Ødegard, R. S., and Sollid, J. L.: The spatial distribution of coast types on Svalbard, in: Arctic Coastal Dynamics - Reports of the 3rd International Workshop, University of Oslo (Norway), 2-5 December 2002, edited by: Rachold, V., Brown, J., Solomon, S., and Sollid, J. L., Reports on Polar and Marine Research, Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, 33-40, 2003.
16. Farbrot, H., Etzelmüller, B., Gudmundsson, A., Schuler, T. V., Eiken, T., Humlum, O., and Björnsson, H.: Thermal characteristics and impact of climate change on mountain permafrost in Iceland, J. Geophys. Res., 112, F03S90, doi:10.1029/2006JF000541, 2007.
17. Farbrot, H., Etzelmüller, B., Hipp, T., Isaksen, K., Ødeg°ard, R. S., Schuler, T. V., and Humlum, O.: Air and ground temperature variations observed along elevation and continental gradients in Southern Norway, Permafrost Periglac., submitted, 2011.
18. French, H. M.: The periglacial environment, 2nd edn., Longmann, London, 341 pp., 1996.
19. Førland, E. J. and Hanssen-Bauer, I.: Increased precipitation in the Norwegian Arctic: True or false?, Climatic Change, 46, 485-509, 2000.
20. Førland, E. J. and Hannssen-Bauer, I.: Past and future climate variations in the Norwegian Arctic: overview and novel analyses, Polar Res., 22, 113-124, 2003. (Pubitemid 38092787)
21. Førland, E. J., Benestad, R. E., Flatøy, F., Hanssen-Bauer, I., Haugen, J. E., Isaksen, K., Sorteberg, A., and Aadlandsvik, B.: Climate development in North Norway and the Svalbard region during 1900-2100, Norwegian Polar Institute, Tromsø, 44 pp., 2009.
22. Goodrich, L. E.: The influence of snow cover on the ground thermal regime, Can. Geotech. J., 19, 421-432, 1982. (Pubitemid 13490800)
23. Gruber, S. and Haeberli, W.: Permafrost in steep bedrock slopes and its temperature-related destabilization following climate change, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 112, F02s18, doi:10.1029/2006jf000547, 2007. (Pubitemid 47342594)
24. Gruber, S., Hoelzle, M., and Haeberli, W.: Permafrost thaw and destabilization of Alpine rock walls in the hot summer of 2003, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L13504, doi:10.1029/2004gl020051, 2004. (Pubitemid 39250768)
25. Hanssen-Bauer, I.: Climate variation in the European sector of the Arctic: Observations and scenarios, in: Arctic-Alpine Ecosystems and people in a Changing Environment, edited by: Orb, J. B. E. A., Springer Verlag, Hamburg, 2007.
26. Hanssen-Bauer, I. and Førland, E. J.: Long-term trends in precipitation and temperature in the Norwegian Arctic: can they be explained by changes in atmospheric circulation patterns?, Climate Res., 10, 143-153, 1998. (Pubitemid 29126272)
27. Harris, C., Davis, M., and Etzelmüller, B.: The Assessment of Potential Geotechnical Hazard Associated With Mountain Permafrost in a Warming Global Climate, Permafrost Periglac., 12, 145-156, 2001.
28. Harris, C., Arenson, L. U., Christiansen, H. H., Etzelmüller, B., Frauenfelder, R., Gruber, S., Haeberli, W., Hauck, C., Holzle, M., Humlum, O., Isaksen, K., Kaab, A., Kern-Lutschg, M. A., Lehning, M., Matsuoka, N., Murton, J. B., Nozli, J., Phillips, M., Ross, N., Seppala, M., Springman, S. M., and Mühll, D. V.: Permafrost and climate in Europe: Monitoring and modelling thermal, geomorphological and geotechnical responses, Earth-Sci. Rev., 92, 117-171, doi:10.1016/j.earscirev.2008.12.002, 2009.
29. Hilbich, C., Hauck, C., Hoelzle, M., Scherler, M., Schudel, L., Voelksch, I., Mühll, D. V., and Maeusbacher, R.: Monitoring mountain permafrost evolution using electrical resistivity tomography: A 7-year study of seasonal, annual, and long-term variations at Schilthorn, Swiss Alps, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 113(F1), F01S90, doi:10.1029/2007JF000799, 2008.
30. Hinzman, L. D., Bettez, N. D., Bolton, W. R., Chapin, F. S., Dyurgerov, M. B., Fastie, C. L., Griffith, B., Hollister, R. D., Hope, A., Huntington, H. P., Jensen, A. M., Jia, G. J., Jorgenson, T., Kane, D. L., Klein, D. R., Kofinas, G., Lynch, A. H., Lloyd, A. H., McGuire, A. D., Nelson, F. E., Oechel, W. C., Osterkamp, T. E., Racine, C. H., Romanovsky, V. E., Stone, R. S., Stow, D. A., Sturm, M., Tweedie, C. E., Vourlitis, G. L., Walker, M. D., Walker, D. A., Webber, P. J., Welker, J. M., Winker, K., and Yoshikawa, K.: Evidence and implications of recent climate change in northern Alaska and other arctic regions, Climatic Change, 72, 251-298, 2005 (Pubitemid 41551225)
31. Humlum, O., Instanes, A., and Sollid, J. L.: Permafrost in Svalbard: a review of research history, climatic background and engineering challenges, Polar Res., 22, 191-215, 2003. (Pubitemid 38092790)
32. Isaksen, K., Vonder Mühll, D., Gubler, H., Kohl, T., and Sollid, J. L.: Ground surface temperature reconstruction based on data from a deep borehole in permafrost at Janssonhaugen, Svalbard, Ann. Glaciol., 31, 287-294, 2000. (Pubitemid 32113958)
33. Isaksen, K., Benestad, L. E., Harris, C., and Sollid, J. L.: Recent extreme near-surface permafrost temperatures on Svalbard in relation to future climate scenarios, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L17502, doi:10.1029/2007GL031002, 2007a. (Pubitemid 350065260)
34. Isaksen, K., Sollid, J. L., Holmlund, P., and Harris, C.: Recent warming of mountain permafrost in Svalbard and Scandinavia, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 112(F2), F02S04, doi:10.1029/2006JF000522, 2007b. (Pubitemid 47342583)
35. Isaksen, K., Ødeg°ard, R. S., Etzelmüller, B., Hilbich, C., Hauck, C., Farbrot, H., Eiken, T., Hygen, H. O., and Hipp, T.: Degrading mountain permafrost in southern Norway - spatial and temporal variability of mean ground temperatures 1999-2009, Permafrost Periglac., submitted, 2011.
36. Juliussen, H., Christiansen, H. H., Strand, G. S., Iversen, S., Midttømme, K., and Rønning, J. S.: NORPERM, the Norwegian Permafrost Database - a TSP NORWAY IPY legacy, Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., 3, 27-54, doi:10.5194/essdd-3-27-2010, 2010.
37. Lachenbruch, A. H. and Marshall, B. V.: Changing climate: geothermal evidence from permafrost in the Alaskan Arctic., Science, 234, 689-696, 1986. (Pubitemid 17184212)
38. Liestøl, O.: Pingos, springs, and permafrost in Spitsbergen, Norsk Polarinstitutt A° rbok, 1975, 7-29, 1977.
39. Lütschg, M., Lehning, M., and Haeberli, W.: A sensitivity study of factors influencing warm/thin permafrost in the Swiss Alps, J. Glaciol., 54, 696-704, 2008.
40. Meehl, G. A., Covey, C., Delworth, T., Latif, M., McAvaney, B., Mitchell, J. F. B., Stouffer, R. J., and Taylor, K. E.: The WCRP CMIP3 multimodel dataset - A new era in climate change research, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 88, 1383, doi:10.1175/Bams- 88-9-1383, 2007.
41. Murton, J. B., Peterson, R., and Ozouf, J. C.: Bedrock fracture by ice segregation in cold regions, Science, 314, 1127-1129, 2006. (Pubitemid 44789039)
42. Nelson, F. E., Anisimov, O. A., and Shiklomanov, N. I.: Subsidence risk from thawing permafrost - The threat to man-made structures across regions in the far north can be monitored, Nature, 410, 889-890, 2001.
43. Nordli, Ø. and Kohler, J.: The early 20th century warming, Daily observations at Grønfjorden and Longyearbyen on Spitsbergen, 2nd edn., Norwegian Meteorlogical Institute, Oslo, 2004.
44. Ødeg°ard R. and Sollid, J. L.: Coastal cliff temperatures related to the potential for cryogenic weathering processes, western Spitsbergen, Svalbard, Polar Res. 12, 95-106, 1993. (Pubitemid 24393345)
45. Ødeg°ard, R., Etzelmüller, B., Vatne, G., and Sollid, J. L.: Nearsurface spring temperatures in an Arctic coastal rock cliff: Possible implications for rock breakdown, in: Steepland Geomorphology, edited by: Slaymaker, O., Wiley, Chichester, 89-102, 1995.
46. Ødeg°ard, R. S., Sollid, J. L., and Trollvik, J. A.: Kystkart Svalbard A3 Forlandsundet 1: 200 000, Norsk Polarinstitutt and Unviersity of Oslo, Oslo, 1987.
47. Romanovsky, V. E., Drozdov, D. S., Oberman, N. G., Malkova, G. V., Kholodov, A. L., Marchenko, S. S., Moskalenko, N. G., Sergeev D. O., Ukraintseva N. G., Abramov A. A., Vasiliev A. A.: Thermal state of permafrost in Russia Permafrost Periglac. 22, 136-155, 2010a.
48. Romanovsky, V. E., Smith, S. L., and Christiansen, H. H.: Permafrost Thermal State in the Polar Northern Hemisphere during the International Polar Year 2007-2009: a Synthesis, Permafrost Periglac., 21, 106-116, doi:10.1002/Ppp.689, 2010b.
49. Ross, N., Brabham, P. J., Harris, C., and Christiansen, H. H.: Internal structure of open system pingos, Adventdalen, Svalbard: The use of resistivity tomography to assess ground-ice conditions, J. Environ. Eng. Geoph., 12, 113-126, 2007. (Pubitemid 47528276)
50. Sengupta, S. and Boyle, J. S.: Using Common Principal Components in Comparing GCM Simulations, J. Climate, 11, 816-830, 1998. (Pubitemid 28426398)
51. Sharkhuu, A., Sharkhuu, N., Etzelmüller, B., Heggem, E. S. F., Nelson, F. E., Shiklomanov, N., Goulden, C., and Brown, J.: Permafrost Monitoring in the Hovsgol Mountain Region, Mongolia, J. Geophys. Res., 112(F2), F02S06, doi:10.1029/2006JF000543, 2007. (Pubitemid 47342584)
52. Shur, Y., Hinkel, K. M., and Nelson, F. E.: The transient layer: Implications for geocryology and climate-change science, Permafrost Periglac., 16, 5-17, 2005. (Pubitemid 40427142)
53. Smith, M. W. and Riseborough, D. W.: Climate and the limits of permafrost: A zonal analysis, Permafrost Periglac., 13, 1-15, 2002. (Pubitemid 34444067)
54. Smith, S. L., Romanovsky, V. E., Lewkowicz, A. G., Burn, C. R., Allard, M., Clow, G. D., Yoshikawa, K., and Throop, J.: Thermal state of permafrost in North America - a contribution to the International Polar Year, Permafrost Periglac., 22, 117-135, 2010.
55. Solomon, S., Quin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K. B., Tignotr, M., and Miller, H. L.: Climate Change: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, UK and New York, NY, USA, 2007.
56. Strang, G.: Linear Algebra and its Application, Harcourt Brace and Company, San Diego, California, USA, 1988.
57. Stroeve, J., Holland, M. M., Meier, W., Scambos, T., and Serreze, M.: Arctic sea ice decline: Faster than forecast, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34(9), L09501, doi:10.1029/2007GL029703, 2007. (Pubitemid 47008153)
58. Tolgensbakk, J., Sørbel, L., and Høgvard, K.: Geomorphological and quarternary geological map 1:100 000 Sheet C9Gq Adventdalen, Nor. Polarinst. Temakart 32, 2000.
59. Uppala, S. M., Kallberg, P. W., Simmons, A. J., Andrae, U., Bechtold, V. D., Fiorino, M., Gibson, J. K., Haseler, J., Hernandez, A., Kelly, G. A., Li, X., Onogi, K., Saarinen, S., Sokka, N., Allan, R. P., Andersson, E., Arpe, K., Balmaseda, M. A., Beljaars, A. C. M., Van De Berg, L., Bidlot, J., Bormann, N., Caires, S., Chevallier, F., Dethof, A., Dragosavac, M., Fisher, M., Fuentes, M., Hagemann, S., Holm, E., Hoskins, B. J., Isaksen, L., Janssen, P. A. E. M., Jenne, R., McNally, A. P., Mahfouf, J. F., Morcrette, J. J., Rayner, N. A., Saunders, R. W., Simon, P., Sterl, A., Trenberth, K. E., Untch, A., Vasiljevic, D., Viterbo, P., and Woollen, J.: The ERA-40 re-analysis, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 131, 2961-3012, 2005. (Pubitemid 43186171)
60. Vinje, T.: Anomalies and trends of sea-ice extent and atmospheric circulation in the Nordic Seas during the period 1864-1998, J. Climate, 14, 255-267, 2001. (Pubitemid 33050505)
61. Wegmann, M., Gudmundsson, G. H., and Haeberli, W.: Permafrost changes in rock walls and the retreat of alpine glaciers: A thermal modelling approach, Permafrost Periglac., 9, 23-33, 1998. (Pubitemid 128602630)
62. Wilks, D. S.: Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences, Academic Press, Orlando, Florida, USA, 1995.
63. Williams, P. J. and Smith, M. W.: The Frozen Earth: Fundamentals of geocryology, Cambridge University press, Cambridge, 300 pp., 1989.
64. Zhang, Y., Chen, W. J., and Cihlar, J.: A process-based model for quantifying the impact of climate change on permafrost thermal regimes, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 108(D22), 4695, doi:10.1029/2002JD003354, 2003.
65. Zhao, L., Wu, Q., Marchengo, S., and Sharkhuu, N.: Thermal state of permafrost and active layer in Central Asia during the International Polar Year, Permafrost Periglac., 22, 198-207, 2010.