Modelling potential impacts of climate change on the bioclimatic envelope and conservation of the Maned Wolf (Chrysocyon brachyurus)

Mammalian Biology

Volumn 78, Issue 1, 2013, Pages 41-49

  Torres, Ricardo ^a,b   Pablo Jayat, J ^b,c   Pacheco, Silvia ^d  

^a UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL DE CÓRDOBA   (Argentina)

^b UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL DE TUCUMÁN   (Argentina)

^c Universidad Nacional de Chilecito   (Argentina)

^d Sistema de Información Geográfico Ambiental   (Argentina)

Author keywords

Canidae; Last Glacial Maximum; Maxent; Mid Holocene; South America

Indexed keywords

BIOCLIMATOLOGY; CANID; CARNIVORE; CLIMATE CHANGE; GREENHOUSE GAS; HABITAT TYPE; HOLOCENE; LAST GLACIAL MAXIMUM; NUMERICAL MODEL; PLEISTOCENE; POPULATION DISTRIBUTION; SPECIES CONSERVATION;

SOUTH AMERICA;

CANIDAE; CHRYSOCYON BRACHYURUS;

EID: 84869886891     PISSN: 16165047     EISSN: 16181476     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.mambio.2012.04.008     Document Type: Article

References (64)

1. Algar A.C., Kharouba H.M., Young E.R., Kerr J.T. Predicting the future of species diversity: macroecological theory, climate change, and direct tests of alternative forecasting methods. Ecography 2009, 32:22-33.
2. Alsos I.G., Alm T., Normand S., Brochmann C. Past and future range shifts and loss of diversity in dwarf willow (Salix herbacea L.) inferred from genetics, fossils and modeling. Global Ecol. Biogeogr. 2009, 18:223-239.
3. Araújo M.B., Guisan A. Five (or so) challenges for species distribution modelling. J. Biogeogr. 2006, 33:1677-1688.
4. Araújo M.B., Rahbek C. How does climate change affect biodiversity?. Science 2006, 313:1396-1397.
5. Benito Garzón M., Sánchez de Dios R., Sainz Ollero H. The evolution of the Pinus sylvestris L. area in the Iberian Peninsula from the Last Glacial Maximum to 2100 under climate change. The Holocene 2008, 18:705-714.
6. Berry P.M., Dawson T.P., Harrison P.A., Pearson R.G. Modelling potential impacts of climate change on the bioclimatic envelope of species in Britain and Ireland. Global Ecol. Biogeogr. 2002, 11:453-462.
7. Botkin D.B., Saxe H., Araújo M.B., Betts R., Bradshaw R.H.W., Cedhagen T., et al. Forecasting the effects of global warming on biodiversity. Bioscience 2007, 57:227-236.
8. Braconnot P., Otto-Bliesner B., Harrison S., Joussaume S., Peterschmitt J.Y., Abe-Ouchi A., et al. Results of PMIP2 coupled simulations of the Mid-Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum. Part 1: Experiments and large-scale features. Climate Past 2007, 3:261-277.
9. Brooke C. Conservation and adaptation to climate change. Conserv. Biol. 2008, 22:1471-1476.
10. Buisson L., Thuiller W., Casajus N., Lek S., Grenouillet G. Uncertainty in ensemble forecasting of species distribution. Global Change Biol. 2010, 16:1145-1157.
11. Bush M.B. Distributional change and conservation on the Andean flank: a palaeoecological perspective. Global Ecol. Biogeogr. 2002, 11:463-473.
12. Cardillo M., Mace G.M., Jones K.E., Bielby J., Bininda-Emonds O.R.P., Sechrest W., et al. Multiple causes of high extinction risk in large mammal species. Science 2005, 309:1239-1241.
13. Cardillo M., Mace G.M., Gittleman J.L., Jones K.E., Bielby J., Purvis A. The predictability of extinction: biological and external correlates of decline in mammals. Proc. R. Soc. B 2008, 275:1441-1448.
14. Coelho C.M., Bandeira De Melo L.F., Líma Sábato M.A., Vaz Magni E.M., Hirsch A., Young R.J. Habitat use by wild maned wolves (Chrysocyon brachyurus) in a transition zone environment. J. Mammal. 2008, 89:97-104.
15. Cordellier M., Pfenninger M. Inferring the past to predict the future: climate modeling predictions and phylogeography for the freshwater gastropod Radix balthica (Pulmonata, Basommatophora). Mol. Ecol. 2009, 18:534-544.
16. Chébez J.C. Los que se van. Fauna argentina amenazada. Tomo 3: Mamíferos 2008, Albatros, Buenos Aires, Argentina.
17. Davies T.J., Fritz S.A., Grenyer R., Orme C.D.L., Bielby J., Bininda-Emonds O.R.P., et al. Phylogenetic trees and the future of mammalian biodiversity. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 2008, 105:11556-11563.
18. Davies T.J., Purvis A., Gittleman J.L. Quaternary climate change and the geographic ranges of mammals. Am. Nat. 2009, 174:297-307.
19. de Almeida Jácomo A.T., Silveira L., Felizola Diniz-Filho J.A. Niche separation between the maned wolf (Chrysocyon brachyurus), the crab-eating fox (Dusicyon thous) and the hoary fox (Dusicyon vetulus) in central Brazil. J. Zool. Lond. 2004, 262:99-106.
20. Dietz J.M. Chrysocyon brachyurus. Mammalian Species 1985, 234:1-4.
21. Eastman J.R. IDRISI Andes Tutorial 2006, Clark Labs, Clark University, Worcester, MA.
22. Elith J., Graham C.H., Anderson R.P., Dudik M., Ferrier S., Guisan A., et al. Novel methods improve prediction of species' distribution from occurrence data. Ecography 2006, 19:129-151.
23. Elith J., Phillips S.J., Hastie T., Dudík M., Chee Y.E., Yates C.J. A statistical explanation of MaxEnt for ecologists. Diversity Distrib. 2011, 17:43-57.
24. Fielding A.H., Bell J.F. A review of methods for the assessment of prediction errors in conservation presence/absence models. Environ. Conserv. 1997, 24:38-49.
25. Hampe A. Bioclimate envelope models: what they detect and what they hide. Global Ecol. Biogeogr. 2004, 13:469-476.
26. Hannah L., Midgley G.F., Millar D. Climate change-integrated conservation strategies. Global Ecol. Biogeogr. 2002, 11:485-495.
27. Hannah L., Midgley G.F., Lovejoy T., Bond W.J., Bush M., Lovett J.C., et al. Conservation of biodiversity in a changing climate. Conserv. Biol. 2002, 16:264-268.
28. Heikkinen R.K., Luoto M., Araújo M.B., Virkkala R., Thuiller W., Sykes M.T. Methods and uncertainties in bioclimatic envelope modelling under climate change. Prog. Phys. Geogr. 2006, 30:751-777.
29. Hijmans R.J., Cameron S.E., Parra J.L., Jones P.G., Jarvis A. Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas. Int. J. Clim. 2005, 25:1965-1978.
30. Hole D.G., Huntley B., Arinaitwe J., Butchart S.H.M., Collingham Y.C., Fishpool L.D.C., et al. Toward a management framework for networks of protected areas in the face of climate change. Conserv. Biol. 2011, 25:305-315.
31. Lewis O.T. Climate change, species-area curves and the extinction crisis. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. B: Biol. 2006, 361:163-171.
32. Liu C., Berry P.M., Dawson T.P., Pearson R.G. Selecting thresholds of occurrence in the prediction of species distributions. Ecography 2005, 28:385-393.
33. Manel S., Williams H.C., Ormerod S.J. Evaluating presence-absence models in ecology: the need to account for prevalence. J. Appl. Ecol. 2001, 38:921-931.
34. Martínez-Meyer E., Peterson A.T., Hargrove W.W. Ecological niches as stable distributional constraints on mammal species, with implications for Pleistocene extinctions and climate change projections for biodiversity. Global Ecol. Biogeogr. 2004, 13:305-314.
35. Martínez-Meyer E., Peterson A.T. Conservatism of ecological niche characteristics in North American plant species over the Pleistocene-to-Recent transition. J. Biogeogr. 2006, 33:1779-1789.
36. McPherson J.M., Jetz W., Rogers D.J. The effects of species' range sizes on the accuracy of distribution models: ecological phenomenon or statistical artefact?. J. Appl. Ecol. 2004, 41:811-823.
37. Miatello R., Cobos V. Nuevos aportes sobre la distribución del Aguará Guazú (Chrysocyon brachyurus, Carnivora: Canidae) en las provincias de Córdoba y Santiago del Estero, Argentina. Mastozool. Neotrop. 2008, 15:209-213.
38. Midgley G.F., Hannah L., Millar D., Rutherford M.C., Powrie L.W. Assessing the vulnerability of species richness to anthropogenic climate change in a biodiversity hotspot. Global Ecol. Biogeogr. 2002, 11:445-451.
39. Mones A., Olazarri J. Confirmación de la existencia de Chrysocyon brachyurus (Illiger) en el Uruguay (Mammalia: Carnivora: Canidae). Com. Zool. Mus. Hist. Nat. Montevideo 1990, 174:1-6.
40. Morrone J.J. Biogeographic areas and transition zones of Latin America and the Caribbean islands based on panbiogeographic and cladistic analyses of the entomofauna. Annu. Rev. Entomol. 2006, 51:467-494.
41. Myers N., Mittermeier R.A., Mittermeier C.G., Fonseca G.A.B., Kent J. Biodiversity hotspots for conservation priorities. Nature 2000, 403:853-858.
42. Nowak R.M. Walkerós Mammals of the World. v.2 1999, The John Hopkins University Press, Baltimore and London. 6th ed.
43. Pacheco S., Malizia L., Cayuela L. Effects of climate change on subtropical forests of South America. Trop. Conserv. Sci. 2010, 3:423-437.
44. Parmesan C., Yohe G. A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems. Nature 2003, 421:37-42.
45. Pearce J., Ferrier S. Evaluating the predictive performance of habitat models developed using logistic regression. Ecol. Model. 2000, 133:225-245.
46. Phillips S.J., Anderson R.P., Schapire R.E. Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions. Ecol. Model. 2006, 190:231-259.
47. Pontius R.G., Schneider L.C. Land-cover change model validation by an ROC method for the Ipswich watershed, Massachusetts, USA. Agric. Ecosys. Environ. 2001, 85:239-248.
48. Prates, P.H., 2008. Diversidade genetica e historia evolutiva do Lobo-Guará (Chrysocyon brachyurus). Unpublished Doctoral Thesis, Porto Alegre, Brazil.
49. Prevosti F.J., Bonomo M., Tonni E.P. La distribución de Chrysocyon brachyurus (Illiger, 1811) (Mammalia: Carnivora: Canidae) durante el Holoceno en la Argentina: implicancias paleoambientales. Mastozool. Neotrop. 2004, 11:27-43.
50. Purvis A., Gittleman J.L., Cowlishaw G., Mace G.M. Predicting extinction risk in declining species. Proc. R. Soc. B 2000, 267:1947-1952.
51. Queirolo D., Moreira J.R., Soler L.A., Emmons L.H., Rodrigues F.H.G., Pautasso A.A., et al. Historical and current range of the near threatened maned wolf Chrysocyon brachyurus in South America. Oryx 2011, 45:296-303.
52. Rodden M., Rodrigues F., Bestelmeyer S. Maned wolf (Chrysocyon brachyurus). Canids: Foxes, Wolves, Jackals and Dogs 2004, 38-43. IUCN/SSC Canid Specialist Group, Gland, Switzerland and Cambridge, U.K. C. Sillero-Zubiri, M. Hoffmann, D.W. Macdonald (Eds.).
53. Roig V.G. Desertification and distribution of mammals in the Southern Cone of South America. Latin American Mammals: Their Conservation, Ecology, and Evolution 1991, 239-279. University of Oklahoma Press, Norman, Oklahoma. M.A. Mares, D.J. Schmidly (Eds.).
54. Root T.L., Price J.T., Hall K.R., Schneider S.H., Rosenzweig C., Pounds J.A. Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants. Nature 2003, 421:57-60.
55. Rumiz D., Sainz L.A. Estimación del hábitat útil y la abundancia potencial del lobo de crin o borochi (Chrysocyon brachyurus) en Huanchaca, Santa Cruz -Bolivia. Rev. Bol. Ecol. 2002, 11:3-16.
56. Stropp J., Ter Steege H., Malhi Y., ATDN, RAINFOR Disentangling regional and local tree diversity in the Amazon. Ecography 2009, 32:46-54.
57. Svenning J., Kerr J., Rahbek C. Predicting future shifts in species diversity. Ecography 2009, 32:3-4.
58. Taberlet P., Cheddadi R. Quaternary refugia and persistence of biodiversity. Science 2002, 297:2009-2010.
59. Thuiller W., Lavorel S., Araújo M.B. Niche properties and geographical extent as predictors of species sensitivity to climate change. Global Ecol. Biogeogr. 2005, 14:347-357.
60. Walther G.R., Post E., Convey P., Menzel A., Parmesan C., Beebee T.J.C., et al. Ecological responses to recent climate change. Nature 2002, 416:389-395.
61. Webb T. Past changes in vegetation and climate: lessons for the future. Global Warming and Biological Diversity 1992, 59-75. Yale University Press, New Haven and London. R.L. Peters, T.E. Lovejoy (Eds.).
62. Willis S.G., Thomas Ch.D., Hill J.K., Collingham Y.C., Telfer M.G., Fox R., et al. Dynamic distribution modelling: predicting the present from the past. Ecography 2009, 32:5-12.
63. Whittaker R.H. Communities and Ecosystems 1975, Macmillan, New York. 2nd ed.
64. Yost A.C., Petersen S.L., Gregg M., Miller R. Predictive modeling and mapping Sage Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) nesting habitat using Maximum Entropy and a long-term dataset from Southern Oregon. Ecol. Inform. 2008, 3:375-386.