Predicting the spatio-temporal distribution of Culicoides imicola in Sardinia using a discrete-time population model

Parasites and Vectors

Volumn 5, Issue 1, 2012, Pages

  Rigot, Thibaud ^a,b   Conte, Annamaria ^c   Goffredo, Maria ^c   Ducheyne, Els ^d   Hendrickx, Guy ^d   Gilbert, Marius ^a,e  

^a UNIVERSITÉ LIBRE DE BRUXELLES   (Belgium)

^b UMR 1202 BIOGECO   (France)

^c ISTITUTO ZOOPROFILATTICO SPERIMENTALE DELL ABRUZZO E DEL MOLISE G CAPORALE   (Italy)

^d AVIA GIS   (Belgium)

^e FNRS   (Belgium)

Author keywords

Dynamic model; Infectious disease; Longitudinal entomological surveillance network; Mediterranean basin; Remote sensing; Spatial ecology

Indexed keywords

RAIN;

ALTITUDE; ARTICLE; CONTROLLED STUDY; CULICOIDES; CULICOIDES IMICOLA; ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS; HUMIDITY; MEASUREMENT ACCURACY; MEASUREMENT PRECISION; NONHUMAN; NORMALIZED DIFFERENCE VEGETATION INDEX; POPULATION ABUNDANCE; POPULATION DISPERSAL; POPULATION MODEL; PREDICTIVE VALUE; REMOTE SENSING; SARDINIA; SEASONAL VARIATION; SOIL TEMPERATURE; SPATIOTEMPORAL ANALYSIS; SPECIES DISTRIBUTION; WIND; ANIMAL; CERATOPOGONIDAE; CLIMATE; DISEASE CARRIER; GEOGRAPHY; GROWTH, DEVELOPMENT AND AGING; ITALY; POPULATION DENSITY; SEASON; TEMPERATURE; TIME;

ANIMALS; CERATOPOGONIDAE; CLIMATE; GEOGRAPHY; INSECT VECTORS; ITALY; POPULATION DENSITY; SEASONS; TEMPERATURE; TIME FACTORS;

MLCS; MLOWN;

EID: 84869879520     PISSN: None     EISSN: 17563305     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1186/1756-3305-5-270     Document Type: Article

References (62)

1. Meiswinkel R, Nevill EM, Venter GJ: Vectors: Culicoides spp. In Infectious Diseases of Livestock with special reference to Southern Africa. Volume 1. Edited by Coetzer JAW. Cape Town: Oxford University Press; 1994:69-89.
2. Mellor PS, Boorman J: The transmission and geographical spread of African horse sickness and bluetongue viruses. Ann Trop Med Parasitol 1995, 89:1-15.
3. Mellor PS, Boorman J, Baylis M: Culicoides biting midges: their role as arbovirus vectors. Annu Rev Entomol 2000, 45:307-340.
4. Venter GJ, Meiswinkel R, Nevill EM, Edwardes M: Culicoides (diptera: ceratopogonidae) associated with livestock in the onderstepoort area, Gauteng, south Africa as determined by light-trap collections. Onderstepoort J Vet 1996, 63:315-325.
5. Venter GJ, Nevill EM, Van der Linde TC: Seasonal abundance and parity of stock-associated Culicoides species (diptera: ceratopogonidae) in different climatic regions in southern Africa in relation to their viral vector potential. Onderstepoort J Vet 1997, 64:259-271.
6. Ortega M-D: Seasonal and geographical distribution of Culicodies imicola kieffer in southwestern Spain. J Am Mosq Control Assoc 1997, 13:227-232.
7. Rawlings P, Pro M-J, Pena I, Ortega M-D, Capela R: Spatial and seasonal distribution of Culicoides imicola in Iberia in relation to the transmission of African horse sickness virus. Med Vet Entomol 1997, 11:49-57.
8. Rawlings P, Capela R, Pro MJ, Ortega M-D, Pena I, Rubio C, Gasca A, Mellor PS: The relationship between climate and the distribution of Culicoides imicola in Iberia. Arch Virol Suppl 1998, 14:95.
9. Baylis M, Meiswinkel R, Venter GJ: A preliminary attempt to use climate data and satellite imagery to model the abundance and distribution of Culicoides imicola (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) in southern Africa. J S Afr Vet Assoc 1999, 70:80-89.
10. Rawlings P, Meiswinkel R, Labuschange K, Welton N, Baylis M, Mellor PS: The distribution and species characteristics of the Culicoides biting midge fauna of South Africa. Ecol Entomol 2003, 28:559-566.
11. Mellor PS, Wittmann EJ: Bluetongue virus in the Mediterranean basin 1998-2001. Vet J 2002, 164:20-37.
12. De Liberato C, Purse BV, Goffredo M, Scholl F, Scaramozzino P: Geographical and seasonal distribution of the bluetongue virus vector, Culicoides imicola, in central Italy. Med Vet Entomol 2003, 17:388-394.
13. Goffredo M, Conte AM, Cocciolito R, Meiswinkel R: The distribution and abundance of Culicoides imicola in Italy. Vet Ital 2003, 39:22-32.
14. Miranda MA, Borras D, Rincon C, Alemany A: Presence in the Balearic Islands (Spain) of the midges Culicoides imicola and Culicoides obsoletus group. Med Vet Entomol 2003, 17:52-54.
15. Goffredo M, Conte A, Meiswinkel R: Distribution and abundance of Culicoides imicola, Obsoletus complex and Pulicaris complex (diptera: ceratopogonidae) in Italy. Vet Ital 2004, 40:270-273.
16. Goffredo M, Meiswinkel R: Entomological surveillance of bluetongue in Italy: methods of capture, catch analysis and identification of Culicoides biting midges. Vet Ital 2004, 40:260-265.
17. Torina A, Caracappa S, Mellor PS, Baylis M, Purse BV: Spatial distribution of bluetongue virus and its Culicoides vectors in Sicily. Med Vet Entomol 2004, 18:81-89.
18. Patakakis MJ: Culicoides imicola in Greece. Vet Ital 2004, 40:232-234.
19. Patakakis MJ, Papazahariadou M, Wilson A, Mellor PS, Frydas S, Papadopoulos O: Distribution of Culicoides in Greece. J Vector Ecol 2009, 34:243-251.
20. Baylis M, O'Connell L, Purse BV: Modelling the distribution of bluetongue vectors. Vet Ital 2004, 40:176-181.
21. Baylis M, Bouayoune H, Touti J, Hasnaoui EH: Use of climatic data and satellite imagery to model the abundance of Culicoides imicola, the vector of African horse sickness virus, in morocco. Med Vet Entomol 1998, 12:255-266.
22. Baylis M, Rawlings P: Modelling the distribution and abundance of Culicoides imicola in Morocco and Iberia using climatic data and satellite imagery. Arch Virol Suppl 1998, 14:137-153.
23. Wittmann EJ, Mellor PS, Baylis M: Using climate data to map the potential distribution of Culicoides imicola (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) in Europe. Rev sci tech Off int Epiz 2001, 20:731-736.
24. Baylis M, Mellor PS, Wittmann EJ, Rogers DJ: Prediction of areas around the Mediterranean at risk of bluetongue by modelling the distribution of its vector using satellite imaging. Vet Rec 2001, 149:639-643.
25. Calistri P, Goffredo M, Caporale V, Meiswinkel R: The distribution of Culicoides imicola in Italy: application and evaluation of current mediterranean models based on climate. J Vet Med B 2003, 50:132-138.
26. Tatem AJ, Baylis M, Mellor PS, Purse BV, Capela R, Pena I, Rogers DJ: Prediction of bluetongue vector distribution in Europe and north Africa using satellite imagery. Vet Microbiol 2003, 97:13-29.
27. Conte A, Giovannini A, Savini L, Goffredo M, Calistri P, Meiswinkel R: The effect of climate on the presence of Culicoides imicola in Italy. J Vet Med B 2003, 50:139-147.
28. Purse BV, Tatem AJ, Caracappa S, Rogers DJ, Mellor PS, Baylis M, Torina A: Modelling the distributions of Culicoides bluetongue virus vectors in Sicily in relation to satellite-derived climate variables. Med Vet Entomol 2004, 18:90-101.
29. Conte A, Ippoliti C, Calistri P, Pelini S, Savini L, Salini R, Goffredo M, Meiswinkel R: Towards the identification of potential infectious sites for bluetongue in Italy: a spatial analysis approach based on the distribution of Culicoides imicola. Vet Ital 2004, 40:311-315.
30. Conte A, Goffredo M, Ippoliti C, Meiswinkel R: Influence of biotic and abiotic factors on the distribution and abundance of Culicoides imicola and the Obsoletus Complex in Italy. Vet Parasitol 2007, 150:333-344.
31. Calvete C, Estrada R, Miranda MA, BorráS D, Calvo JH, Lucientes J: Modelling the distributions and spatial coincidence of bluetongue vectors Culicoides imicola and the Culicoides obsoletus group throughout the Iberian peninsula. Med Vet Entomol 2008, 22:124-134.
32. Acevedo P, Ruiz-Fons F, Estrada R, Márquez AL, Miranda MA, Gortázar C, Lucientes J: A broad assessment of factors determining Culicoides imicola abundance: modelling the present and forecasting its future in climate change scenarios. PLoS One 2010, 5:e14236.
33. Conte A, Gilbert M, Goffredo M: Eight years of entomological surveillance in Italy show no evidence of Culicoides imicola geographical range expansion. J Appl Ecol 2009, 46:1332-1339.
34. Baylis M, Hasnaoui EH, Bouayoune H, Touti J: The spatial and seasonal distribution of African horse sickness and its potential Culicoides vectors in morocco. Med Vet Entomol 1997, 11:203-212.
35. R Development Core Team: R: a language and environment for statistical computing, Vienna, Austria; 2011.
36. Pebesma EJ: Multivariable geostatistics in S: the gstat package. Comput Geosci 2004, 30:683-691.
37. Scharlemann JP, Benz D, Hay SI, Purse BV, Tatem AJ, Wint GR, Rogers DJ: Global data for ecology and epidemiology: a novel algorithm for temporal Fourier processing MODIS data. PLoS One 2008, 3:e1408.
38. de Valpine P, Hastings A: Fitting population models incorporating process noise and observation error. Ecol Monogr 2002, 72:57-76.
39. Calder C, Lavine M, Müller P, Clark JS: Incorporating multiple sources of stochasticity into dynamic population models. Ecology 2003, 84:1395-1402.
40. Venables WN, Ripley BD: Modern Applied Statistics with S. New York: Springer; 2002.
41. Hijmans RJ, van Etten J: Package 'raster' 2011. http://r-forge.r-project.org/projects/raster.
42. Veronesi E, Venter GJ, Labuschagne K, Mellor PS, Carpenter S: Life-history parameters of Culicoides (Avaritia) imicola Kieffer in the laboratory at different rearing temperatures. Vet Parasitol 2009, 163:370-373.
43. Walker AR, Davies FG: A preliminary survey of the epidemiology of bluetongue in Kenya. J Hyg 1971, 69:47-60.
44. Lubega R, Khamala CPM: Larval habitats of common Culicoides Latreille (Diptera, Ceratopogonidae) in Kenya. B Entomol Res 1976, 66:421-425.
45. Walker AR: Seasonal Fluctuations of Culicoides Species (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) in Kenya. B Entomol Res 1977, 67:217-233.
46. Braverman Y, Galun R, Ziv M: Breeding sites of some Culicoides species (Diptera, Ceratopogonidae) in Israel. Mosq News 1974, 34:303-308.
47. Hendrickx G, Gilbert M, Staubach C, Elbers A, Mintiens K, Gerbier G, Ducheyne E: A wind density model to quantify the airborne spread of Culicoides species during north-western Europe bluetongue epidemic. Prev Vet Med 2008, 87:162-181.
48. Sanders CJ, Shortall CR, Gubbins S, Burgin L, Gloster J, Harrington R, Reynolds DR, Mellor PS, Carpenter S: Influence of season and meteorological parameters on flight activity of Culicoides biting midges. J Appl Ecol 2011, 48:1355-1364.
49. Napp S, García-Bocanegra L, Pagès N, Allepuz A, Alba A, Casal J: Assessment of the risk of a bluetongue outbreak in Europe caused by Culicoides midges introduced through intracontinental transport and trade networks. Med Vet Entomol 2012, doi:10.1111/j.1365-2915.2012.01016.x.
50. Rigot T, Vercauteren Drubbel M, Delécolle J-C, Gilbert M: Farms, pastures and woodlands: the fine-scale distribution of Palearctic Culicoides Spp. Biting midges along an agro-ecological gradient. Med Vet Entomol 2012, doi:10.1111/j.1365-2915.2012.01032.x.
51. Viennet E, Garros C, Lancelot R, Allène X, Gardès L, Rakotoarivony I, Crochet D, Delécolle J-C, Moulia C, Baldet T, Balenghien T: Assessment of vector/host contact: comparison of animal-baited traps and UV-light/suction trap for collecting Culicoides biting midges (diptera: ceratopogonidae). vectors of orbiviruses. Parasite Vector 2011, 4:119.
52. Holmes EE, Ward EJ, Wills K: MARSS: Multivariate autoregressive state-space models for analyzing time-series data. R Journal 2012, 4:11-19.
53. Fitzpatrick MC, Preisser EL, Porter A, Elkinton J, Ellison AM: Modeling range dynamics in heterogeneous landscapes: invasion of the hemlock woolly adelgid in eastern North America. Ecol Appl 2011, 22:472-486.
54. Gallien L, Münkemüller T, Albert CH, Boulangeat I, Thuiller W: Predicting potential distributions of invasive species: where to go from here? Divers Distrib 2010, 16:331-342.
55. Elith J, Leathwick JR, Hastie T: A working guide to boosted regression trees. J Anim Ecol 2008, 77:802-813.
56. Zuur AF, Ieno EN, Walker NJ, Saveliev AA, Smith GM: Mixed effects models and extensions in ecology R. New York: Springer Verlag; 2009.
57. Dormann CF, McPherson JM, Araújo MB, Bivand R, Bolliger J, Carl G, Davies RG, et al: Methods to account for spatial autocorrelation in the analysis of species distributional data: a review. Ecography 2007, 30:609-628.
58. Searle KR, Blackwell A, Falconer D, Sullivan M, Butler A, Purse BV: Identifying environmental drivers of insect phenology across space and time: Culicoides in Scotland as a case study. B Entomol Res 2012, doi:10.1017/S0007485312000466.
59. Kaufmann C, Steinmann IC, Hegglin D, Schaffner F, Mathis A: Spatio-temporal occurrence of Culicoides biting midges in the climatic regions of Switzerland, along with large scale species identification by MALDI-TOF mass spectrometry. Parasite Vector 2012, 5:246.
60. Lehmann K, Werner D, Hoffmann B, Kampen H: PCR identification of Culicoid biting midges (Diptera, Ceratopogonidae) of the Obsoletus complex including putative vectors of bluetongue and Schmallenberg viruses. Parasite Vector 2012, 5:213.
61. Lassen SB, Nielsen SA, Kristensen M: Identity and diversity of Blood meal hosts of biting midges (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae: Culicoides Latreille) in Denmark. Parasite Vector 2012, 5:143.
62. Martínez-de la Puente J, Martínez J, Ferraguti M, Morales-de la Nuez A, Castro N, Figuerola J: Genetic characterization and molecular identification of the bloodmeal sources of the potential bluetongue vector Culicoides obsoletus in the Canary islands, Spain. Parasite Vector 2012, 5:147.