System of Systems Engineering and Risk Management of Extreme Events: Concepts and Case Study

Risk Analysis

Volumn 32, Issue 11, 2012, Pages 1935-1955

  Bristow, Michele ^a   Fang, Liping ^a,b   Hipel, Keith W ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF WATERLOO   (Canada)

^b RYERSON UNIVERSITY   (Canada)

Author keywords

Graph model for conflict resolution; Multiple participants; Risk perception; Straits of Malacca and Singapore; System of systems

Indexed keywords

CAUSE-AND-EFFECT RELATIONSHIPS; EXTREME EVENTS; GENERAL APPROACH; GRAPH MODEL FOR CONFLICT RESOLUTION; INITIATING EVENTS; INTERACTING SYSTEM; MARITIME INFRASTRUCTURE; MULTIPLE PARTICIPANTS; MULTIPLE SYSTEMS; POTENTIAL LOSS; SINGAPORE; STRATEGIC INTERACTIONS; SYSTEM OF SYSTEMS; SYSTEM OF SYSTEMS ENGINEERING;

ADAPTIVE SYSTEMS; RISK MANAGEMENT; RISK PERCEPTION; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

SYSTEMS ENGINEERING;

ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT; ENGINEERING; EXTREME EVENT; INFRASTRUCTURE; PARTICIPATORY APPROACH; PERCEPTION; RISK ASSESSMENT;

ARTICLE; INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION; ORGANIZATION AND MANAGEMENT; RISK MANAGEMENT; UNCERTAINTY;

INTERNATIONALITY; RISK MANAGEMENT; UNCERTAINTY;

SINGAPORE [SOUTHEAST ASIA]; STRAIT OF MALACCA;

EID: 84869507064     PISSN: 02724332     EISSN: 15396924     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2012.01867.x     Document Type: Article

References (72)

1. Hultman NE, Hassenzahl DM, Rayner S. Climate risk. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 2010; 35:283-303.
2. Hatfield AJ, Hipel KW. Risk and systems theory. Risk Analysis, 2002; 22(6):1043-1057.
3. Goffman E. Strategic Interaction. Philadelphia : University of Pennsylvania Press, 1969.
4. Brunk CG, Haworth I, Lee B. Value Assumptions in Risk Assessment: A Case Study of the Alachlor Controversy. Waterloo, ON : Wilfrid Laurier University Press, 1991.
5. Haimes YY. Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management, 3rd ed. New York : Wiley, 2009a.
6. Haimes YY. On the complex definition of risk: A systems-based approach. Risk Analysis, 2009b; 29(12):1647-1654.
7. Haimes YY. On the complex quantification of risk: Systems-based perspective on terrorism. Risk Analysis, 2011; 31(8):1175-1186.
8. Yan Z, Haimes YY. Risk-based multiobjective resource allocation in hierarchical systems with multiple decisionmakers. Part I: Theory and methodology. Systems Engineering, 2011a; 14(1):1-16.
9. Yan Z, Haimes YY. Risk-based multiobjective resource allocation in hierarchical systems with multiple decisionmakers. Part II: A case study. Systems Engineering, 2011b; 14(1):17-28.
10. Bertalanffy LV. General System Theory: Foundations, Development, Applications. New York : G. Brazilier, 1968.
11. Holling CS (ed). Adaptive Environmental Assessment and Management. New York : Wiley, 1978.
12. Walters CJ. Adaptive Management of Renewable Resources. New York : MacMillan, 1986.
13. Gunderson LH, Holling CS (eds). Panarchy: Understanding Transformations in Human and Natural Systems. Washington, DC : Island Press, 2002.
14. Maier MW. Architecting principles for systems-of-systems. Systems Engineering, 1998; 1(4):267-284.
15. Sage AP, Cuppan CD. On the systems engineering and management of systems of systems and federations of systems. Information, Knowledge, Systems Management, 2001; 2:325-345.
16. Sage AP, Biemer SM. Processes for system family architecting, design, and integration. IEEE Systems Journal, 2007; 1(1):5-16.
17. Jamshidi MM (ed). System of Systems Engineering-Innovations for the 21st Century. New York : Wiley, 2009.
18. Fang L, Hipel KW, Kilgour DM. Interactive Decision Making: The Graph Model for Conflict Resolution. New York : Wiley, 1993.
19. Hipel KW, Kilgour DM, Fang L. The graph model for conflict resolution. Pp. 2099-2111 in Cochran JJ (Editor in Chief) with Cox LA, Keskinocak P, Kharoufeh JP, and Smith JC (Area Eds). Wiley Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Science, Vol. 3 of 8. New York : Wiley, 2011.
20. Raiffa H. The Art and Science of Negotiation. Cambridge, MA : Belknap Press, 1982.
21. Raiffa H, Richardson J, Metcalfe D. Negotiation Analysis: The Science and Art of Collaborative Decision Making. Cambridge, MA : Belknap Press, 2002.
22. Kaplan S, Garrick BJ. On the quantitative definition of risk. Risk Analysis, 1981; 1(1):11-27.
23. Pich MT, Loch CH, De Meyer A. On uncertainty, ambiguity, and complexity in project management. Management Science, 2002; 48(8):1008-1023.
24. Stirling A, Mayer S. Precautionary approaches to the appraisal of risk: A case study of a genetically modified crop. International Journal of Occupational and Environmental Health, 2000; 6(4):296-311.
25. Brugnach M, Dewulf A, Henriksen HJ, van der Keur P. More is not always better: Coping with ambiguity in natural resources management. Journal of Environmental Management, 2011; 92:28-84.
26. Kilgour, DM, Fang L, Hipel KW. GMCR in negotiations. Negotiation Journal, 1995; 11(2):151-156.
27. Halpern JY. Reasoning about Uncertainty. Cambridge, MA : MIT Press, 2005.
28. Shafer G. A Mathematical Theory of Evidence. Princeton, NJ : Princeton University Press, 1976.
29. Zadeh LA. Outline of a new approach to the analysis of complex systems and decision processes. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man and Cybernetics, 1973; 3(1):28-44.
30. Deng JL. Introduction to grey system theory. Journal of Grey System, 1989; 1(1):1-24.
31. Liu S, Lin Y. Grey Systems: Theory and Applications. Berlin : Springer-Verlag, 2010.
32. Greco S, Matarazzo B, Slowinski R. Rough sets theory for multicriteria decision analysis. European Journal of Operational Research, 2001; 129:1-47.
33. Wickramasinghe N, Chalasani S, Boppana RV, Madni AM. Healthcare system of systems. Pp. 220-225 in Proceedings of the IEEE International Conference on System of Systems Engineering, April 16-18. San Antonio, TX, 2007.
34. Tien JM, Goldschmidt-Clermont PJ. Healthcare: A complex service system. Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering, 2009; 18(3):257-282.
35. Cowling J, Cloutier R. A system of systems perspective on open source software projects. Pp. S06-39 in Kalawsky RS, O'Brien J, Goonetilleke T, Grocott C (eds). Proceedings of the 7th Annual Conference on Systems Engineering Research, April 20-23. UK : Research School of Systems Engineering, Loughborough University, 2009.
36. Theoharidou M, Kotzanikolaou P, Gritzalis D. A multi-layer criticality assessment methodology based on interdependencies. Computers & Security, 2010; 29(6):643-658.
37. Akkoyunlu EA, Ekanadham K, Huber RV. Some constraints and tradeoffs in the design of network communications. Pp. 67-74 in Browne JC, Rodriguez-Rosell J (eds). Proceedings of the 5th ACM Symposium on Operating Systems Principles. New York : ACM, 1975.
38. Lamport L, Shostak R, Pease M. The Byzantine generals problem. ACM Transactions on Programming Languages and Systems, 1982; 4(3):382-401.
39. Rapoport A, Chammah AM. Prisoner's Dilemma. Ann Arbor, MI : University of Michigan Press, 1965.
40. Rapoport A, Chammah AM. The game of chicken. American Behavioral Scientist, 1966; 10:23-28.
41. Axelrod R. The Evolution of Cooperation. New York : Basic Books, 1984.
42. Brams SJ. Superpower Games: Applying Game Theory to Superpower Conflicts. New Haven, CT : Yale University Press, 1985.
43. Keeney, R. Value-Focused Thinking. Cambridge, MA : Harvard University Press, 1992.
44. Karvetski CW, Lambert JH, Linkov I. Emergent conditions and multicriteria analysis in infrastructure prioritization for developing countries. Journal of Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis, 2009; 16(5):125-137.
45. Gramling R, Forsyth CJ, Wooddell G. Expert informants and relative risk: A methodology for modeling waterways. Risk Analysis, 1998; 18(5):557-562.
46. Fowler TG, Sorgard E. Modeling ship transportation risk. Risk Analysis, 2000; 20(2):225-244.
47. Martins MR, Maturana MC. Human error contribution in collision and grounding of oil tankers. Risk Analysis, 2010; 30(4):674-698.
48. Clauset A, Young M, Gleditsch KS. On the frequency of severe terrorist events. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 2007; 51(1):58-87.
49. Hipel KW, Fang L. Multiple participant decision making in societal and technological systems. Pp. 3-31 in Arai T, Yamamoto S, Makino K (eds). Systems and Human Science - for Safety, Security and Dependability. Amsterdam : Elsevier, 2005.
50. Keeney RL, Raiffa H. Decisions with Multiple Objectives: Preferences and Value Tradeoffs. 1st ed. New York : Wiley, 1976.
51. Saaty TL. The Analytic Hierarchy Process: Planning, Priority Setting, Resource Allocation. New York : McGraw-Hill, 1980.
52. Li KW, Hipel KW, Kilgour DM, Fang L. Preference uncertainty in the graph model for conflict resolution. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, Part A: Systems and Humans, 2004; 34(4):507-520.
53. Hipel KW, Kilgour DM, Bashar MA. Fuzzy preferences in multiple participant decision making. Scientia Iranica, Transactions D: Computer Science & Engineering and Electrical Engineering, special publication dedicated to the lifelong achievements of Professor Lotfi Zadeh, 2011; 18(3)(D1):627-638.
54. Fang L, Hipel KW, Kilgour DM, Peng X. A decision support system for interactive decision making-Part I: Model formulation. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, Part C: Applications and Reviews, 2003; 33(1):42-55.
55. Fang L, Hipel KW, Kilgour DM, Peng X. A decision support system for interactive decision making-Part II: Analysis and output interpretation. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, Part C: Applications and Reviews, 2003; 33(1):56-66.
56. IRGC. Risk governance: Towards an integrative approach. White Paper No. 1, International Risk Governance Council, Geneva, 2005.
57. Mansouri M, Gorod A, Wakeman TH, Sauser B. Maritime transportation system of systems management framework: A system of systems engineering approach. International Journal of Ocean Systems Management, 2009; 1(2):200-226.
58. IRGC. Risk Governance of Maritime Global Critical Infrastructure: The Example of the Straits of Malacca and Singapore (Report), International Risk Governance Council, Geneva, 2011. Available at: http://www.irgc.org/IMG/pdf/irgc_mgcireport_2011.pdf, Accessed on February 7, 2012.
59. IRGC. Projects: Maritime Global Critical Infrastructure, 2011. Available at: http://irgc.org/-Maritime-Global-Critical-html, Accessed on June 23, 2012.
60. United Nations. UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), Article 43, Navigational and Safety Aids and Other Improvements and the Prevention, Reduction and Control of Pollution, 1982. Available at: http://www.un.org/Depts/los/convention_agreements/texts/unclos/closindx.htm, Accessed on March 1, 2011.
61. Ho JH. Enhancing safety, security, and environmental protection of the Straits of Malacca and Singapore: The cooperative mechanism. Ocean Development & International Law, 2009; 40(2):233-247.
62. Cullinane K, Yap WY, Lam JSL. The Port of Singapore and its governance structure. Pp. 285-310 in Devolution, Port Governance and Port Performance: Research in Transportation Economics, Chapter 13, Vol. 17. Oxford : Elsevier, 2007.
63. Thia-Eng C, Gorre IRL, Ross SA, Bernad SR, Gervacio B, Ebarvia MC. The Malacca Straits. Marine Pollution Bulletin, 2000; 41(1-6):160-178.
64. Maritime Institute of Malaysia. Centre for the Straits of Malacca (SOM), Project Highlights, Study on Ship Carrying Capacity of the Strait of Malacca (abstract), 2010. Available at: http://www.mima.gov.my/images/stories/ResearchCentres/SOM/Research_Project/som01%20%20study%20on%20ship%20carrying%20capacity%20of%20the%20strait%20of%20malacca.pdf, Accessed July 22, 2011.
65. Maritime Institute of Malaysia. Ship Carrying Capacity of the Strait of Malacca (SCC-SOM), presented at the 35th Tripartite Technical Experts Group (TTEG) Meeting on the Safety of Navigation in the Straits of Malacca and Singapore, held in Sheraton Mustika Hotel, Yogyakarta, Indonesia, 4-5 October 2010. Available at: http://www.tteg-indonesia.com/download/tteg/TTEG35ANNEXOPresentationonShipCarryingCapacityoftheStraitofMalacca%20byMIMAbyMalaysia.pdf, Accessed on July 22, 2011.
66. Hock, TH. Malaysia seeks to limit maritime traffic in Straits of Malacca, The Star, October 22, 2008. Available at: http://thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?sec=nation&file=/2008/10/22/nation/2335917, Accessed on August 12, 2011.
67. CIA. The World Factbook, 2011. Available at: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/2060.html, Accessed on August 10, 2011.
68. Beckman, RC. Combatting piracy and armed robbery against ships in Southeast Asia: The way forward. Ocean Development & International Law, 2002; 33(3):317-341.
69. Report of the Meeting. 3rd Co-operation Forum under the Co-operative Mechanism on the Safety of Navigation and Environmental Protection in the Straits of Malacca and Singapore, Yogyakarta, Indonesia, 6-7 October 2010. Available at: http://www.tteg-indonesia.com/download/cf/CF%203-Reportofthe3rdCo-operationForum.pdf, Accessed on May 19, 2011.
70. Hardin G. The tragedy of the commons. Science, 1968; 162(3859):1243-1248.
71. Ke Y, Li KW, Hipel KW. The integration of a multiple criteria preference ranking approach for conflict resolution. Pp. 1830-1835 in Proceedings of the IEEE International Conference on Systems, Man and Cybernetics, October 7-10, Montreal, QC, Canada, 2007.
72. IRGC. Risk Governance Deficits: Analysis, Illustration and Recommendations: Policy Brief. Geneva : IRGC, 2010.