From "Sick Man" to "Miracle": Explaining the robustness of the German labor market during and after the financial crisis 2008-09

Politics and Society

Volumn 40, Issue 4, 2012, Pages 549-579

  Reisenbichler, Alexander ^a   Morgan, Kimberly J ^a  

^a GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

Financial crisis; Institutional change; Labor market; Unemployment; Varieties of capitalism

Indexed keywords

EID: 84869452254     PISSN: 00323292     EISSN: 15527514     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1177/0032329212461616     Document Type: Article

References (175)

1. Based on harmonized unemployment rates from the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), OECD. Stat (Paris: OECD); for the aggregate number of unemployed, see Bundesagentur für Arbeit (BA), Statistik der Bundesagentur für Arbeit, Arbeitslosigkeit im Zeitverlauf (Nürnberg: BA, 2011). This positive trend also continued in 2011, with an unemployment rate that has improved to 5.7 percent in October 2011; see OECD, OECD.Stat.
2. In 2008, the OECD projected 8.1 percent unemployment for 2009 and 8.6 percent for 2010. One year later, in its 2009 annual outlook, the OECD projected 9.2 percent unemployment in 2010 and even 9.7 percent in 2011.
3. OECD, OECD: December Economic Outlook No. 84 (Paris: OECD, 2008).
4. OECD, OECD: December Economic Outlook No. 86 (Paris: OECD, 2009).
5. In its 2009 World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) similarly projected 9.0 percent unemployment in 2009 and 10.8 percent in 2010.
6. IMF, World Economic Outlook 2009-Crisis and Recovery (Washington, D.C.: IMF, April 2009).
7. Philip Manow and Eric Seils, "Adjusting Badly: The German Welfare State, Structural Change, and the Open Economy," in F. W. Scharpf and V. A. Schmidt, eds., Welfare and Work in the Open Economy. Volume 2. Diverse Responses to Common Challenges (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2000), 264-307.
8. Fritz W. Scharpf, "Employment and the Welfare State: A Continental Dilemma," MPIfG Working Paper 7 (1997).
9. Michael Warren, "Why Germany's Unemployment Rate is Lower," The Weekly Standard Blog (August 31, 2010), http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/why-germanys-unemployment-rate-lower (accessed April 15, 2012).
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11. Katha Pollitt, "It's Better Over There," The Nation (September 2, 2010), http://www.thenation.com/article/154477/its-better-over-there (accessed April 15, 2012).
12. For similar arguments for the Modell Deutschland in the 1970s and 1980s.
13. Herbert Kitschelt and Wolfgang Streeck, "From Stability to Stagnation: Germany at the Beginning of the 21st Century," in H. Kitschelt and W. Streeck, eds., Germany: Beyond the Stable State (London: Routledge, 2004), 1-36.
14. The number of unemployed decreased from 3.76 million in 2007 to 3.26 million in 2008, slightly increased to 3.4 million in 2009, and then improved again to 3.2 million in 2010 (annual averages), while the total number of people in employment increased from 39.7 million in 2007 to 40.2 million in 2008, and to 40.4 million in 2010; calculated from Bundesagentur für Arbeit (BA), Statistik der Bundesagentur für Arbeit; and Statistisches Bundesamt (SBA), Statistisches Jahrbuch 2011 (Wiesbaden: SBA, 2011). Germany's employment rate thus increased from 65 percent in 2004 to 69.4 percent in 2007, 70.7 percent in 2008, and to 70.9 percent in 2009, considerably higher than the EU average of 64.6 percent in 2009; calculated from European Commission, Eurostat (Brussels: European Commission).
15. OECD, Employment Outlook 2010 (Paris: OECD, 2010).
16. The IMF World Economic Outlook predicted -5.6 percent in 2009 and -1 percent GDP growth rates in 2010.
17. IMF, World Economic Outlook 2009.
18. The DAX or German Stock Index includes the thirty largest and most profitable German companies.
19. This point was generated in an interview with a DAX-company representative.
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24. Margarita Estevez-Abe, Torben Iversen, and David Soskice, "Social Protection and the Formation of Skills: A Reinterpretation of the Welfare State," in Hall and Soskice, eds., Varieties of Capitalism, 145-183.
25. According to the OECD, Germany's EPL indicator for regular employment has become slightly stricter since 2003, increasing from 2.68 to 3 on a scale of 0 (loose) to 4 (strict). Protection of temporary employment, however, has become substantially less strict since the mid-1990s, as the indicator has continuously fallen from 3.5 in 1996 to 1.25 in 2008; see OECD, OECD.Stat.
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28. GDP growth was stagnant in 2002 and declined by -0.38 percent in 2003; see OECD, OECD.Stat.
29. Dietz, Stops, and Walwei, "Safeguarding Jobs in Times of Crisis.".
30. Data retrieved from Institute for Employment Research (IAB), "Durchschnittliche Arbeitszeit und ihre Komponenten in Deutschland" (Nürnberg: IAB, 2011), http://doku.iab.de/grauepap/2011/tab-az10.pdf (accessed April 15, 2012).
31. For an interesting comparison of how different countries, including Germany, responded to earlier crises.
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38. Firms reduce the working hours of employees and pay only for the reduced hours worked, while the state provides 60-67 percent of the foregone wage-the difference between regular working hours that the employee used to work before the reduction in hours worked and reduced working hours-and reimburses 50 percent of the employer's social contributions (after six months, it is 100 percent) for a maximum of twenty-four months. The state also supports training and skill acquisition for employees while in Kurzarbeit.
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40. In the first stimulus package, the Grand Coalition extended the instrument of Kurzarbeit from twelve to eighteen months; in the second stimulus package, Kurzarbeit applications were further facilitated by extending eligibility to firms whose employees faced a wage loss of at least 10 percent.
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44. Ines Zapf and Alexander Herzog-Stein, "Betriebliche Einsatzmuster von Arbeitszeitkonten während der Großen Rezession," WSI-Mitteilungen 02 (2011): 60-68.
45. Calculated from OECD, OECD.Stat.
46. These points were generated through interviews with officials at DAX as well as Mittelstand companies.
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56. Rattner, "The Secrets of Germany's Success," 8.
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62. Boysen-Hogrefe and Groll, "The German Labour Market Miracle." 45.
63. John Schmitt, Labor Market Policy in the Great Recession: Some Lessons from Denmark and Germany (Washington, DC: Center for Economic and Policy Research, May 2011).
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73. For example, membership density of the peak employer organization for the metal and electronics industry, Gesamtmetall, declined from 42.8 percent in 1993 to 22.5 percent in 2003.
74. Streeck, Re-Forming Capitalism, 48.
75. Instead, many small- and medium-sized firms chose to join "OT associations" (employer associations without collective agreements), which provide benefits for firms without making them parties to collective agreements.
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104. Gerhard Bosch, "Working Time and Working Time Policy in Germany," Paper prepared for the 2009 JILPT International Seminar on Working Time (2009).
105. Markus Promberger, Hartmut Seifert, and Rainer Trinczek, "Experiences with the Four-Day Week at the Volkswagen Company," Journal of Human Resource Costing & Accounting 4, no. 2 (1999): 27-43.
106. Markus Promberger, Hartmut Seifert, and Rainer Trinczek, "Experiences with the Four-Day Week at the Volkswagen Company," Journal of Human Resource Costing & Accounting 4, no. 2 (1999).
107. Rehder, Betriebliche Bündnisse für Arbeit.
108. Claudia Bogedan, Wolfram Brehmer, and Hartmut Seifert, "Wie krisenfest sind betriebliche Bündnisse zur Beschäftigungssicherung?" WSI-Mitteilungen 02 (2011): 55.
109. Seifert and Massa-Wirth, "Pacts for Employment and Competitiveness," 222-223.
110. Seifert and Massa-Wirth, "Pacts for Employment and Competitiveness."
111. Carlin and Soskice, "German Economic Performance."
112. Lucio Baccaro, "Similar Structures, Different Outcomes: Corporatism's Surprising Resilience and Transformation," unpublished ms. (July 2011).
113. Lucio Baccaro, "Similar Structures, Different Outcomes: Corporatism's Surprising Resilience and Transformation," unpublished ms. (July 2011).
114. Thomas Paster, "Do German Employers Support Board-Level Codetermination? The Paradox of Individual Support and Collective Opposition," Socio-Economic Review, Advance Online Access (2011): 1-25.
115. Carlin and Soskice, "German Economic Performance," 72.
116. Scharpf, "Monetary Union, Fiscal Crisis and the Preemption of Democracy."
117. Brigitte Young and Willi Semmler, "The European Sovereign Debt Crisis-Is Germany to Blame?" German Politics and Society 29, no. 1 (2011): 2-24.
118. Fioretos, Creative Reconstructions.
119. Scharpf, "Monetary Union, Fiscal Crisis and the Preemption of Democracy".
120. Rattner, "The Secrets of Germany's Success."
121. Vivien A. Schmidt, "Die EU - Eine Erloschene Vision?" Neue Gesellschaft Frankfurter Hefte 7, no. 8 (2011).
122. German Council of Economic Experts, "Chancen für einen stabilen Aufschwung-Jahresgutachten 2010-11," (2010): 257-302.
123. Boysen-Hogrefe and Groll, "The German Labour Market Miracle."
124. We do not, however, evaluate this development in the broader perspective of the current European debt crisis, which would go beyond the scope of this paper.
125. Michael C. Burda and Jennifer Hunt, "What Explains the German Labor Market Miracle in the Great Recession?" Brooking Papers on Economic Activity, SFB 649 Discussion Papers (2011).
126. Boysen-Hogrefe and Groll, "The German Labour Market Miracle."
127. German Council of Economic Experts, "Chancen für einen stabilen Aufschwung-Jahresgutachten 2010-11."
128. Whereas in 2008 the collective bargaining round concluded at an average wage increase of 2.9 percent, the round in 2009 concluded at 2.6 percent, and in 2010 even less so at 1.7 percent.
129. Heiner Dribbusch, "Annual Report on Collective Bargaining Round," European Industrial Relations Observatory Online (April 8, 2010), http://www.eurofound.europa.eu/eiro/2010/02/articles/de1002029i.htm (accessed April 15, 2012).
130. Heiner Dribbusch, "Interim Report on 2010 Bargaining Round," European Industrial Relations Observatory Online (August 10, 2010), http://www.eurofound.europa.eu/eiro/2010/07/articles/de1007029i.htm (accessed April 15, 2012).
131. Steffen Lehndorff, "Before the Crisis, in the Crisis, and Beyond: The Upheaval of Collective Bargaining in Germany," Transfer: European Review of Labour and Research 17, no. 3 (2011): 341-354.
132. Reinhard Bispinck and WSI-Tarifarchiv, Tarifpolitischer Halbjahresbericht-Eine Zwischenbilanz der Lohn-und Gehaltsrunde (Düsseldorf: WSI 2010).
133. Lehndorff, "Before the crisis, in the crisis, and beyond."
134. Hall and Thelen, "Institutional Change in Varieties of Capitalism."
135. Rehder, Betriebliche Bündnisse für Arbeit.
136. Stefan Zagelmeyer, "Company-level Collective Agreements During the 2008-2010 Crisis: Four Cases from Germany," Transfer: European Review of Labour and Research 17, no. 3 (2011): 355-370.
137. Thelen, "Institutional Change in Advanced Political Economies."
138. Werner Eichhorst and Paul Marx, "Reforming German Labor Market Institutions: A Dual Path to Flexibility," Journal of European Social Policy 21, no. 1 (2011): 73-87.
139. Mark I. Vail, Recasting Welfare Capitalism: Economic Adjustment in Contemporary France and Germany (Philadelphia: Temple University Press, 2010).
140. Anke Hassel and Christof Schiller, Der Fall Hartz IV. Wie es zur Agenda 2010 kam und wie es weiter geht (Frankfurt: Campus, 2010).
141. Markus Heckmann, Anja Kettner, Stephanie Pausch, Jörg Szameitat, and Kurt Vogler-Ludwig, "Unternehmensbefragung im II. Quartal 2009: Wie Betriebe in der Krise Beschäftigung stützen," IAB Kurzbericht 18 (2009): 3.
142. Heckmann et al. "Unternehmensbefragung im II. Quartal 2009".
143. Claudia Bogedan, Wolfram Brehmer, and Alexander Herzog-Stein, "Betriebliche Beschäftigungssicherung in der Krise-Eine Kurzauswertung der WSI-Betriebsrätebefragung 2009," WSI-Report 1 (2009).
144. Retrieved from OECD, OECD.Stat.
145. Bogedan et al., "Betriebliche Beschäftigungssicherung in der Krise," 6.
146. The 2009 IAB survey largely confirms these findings.
147. Heckmann et al., "Unternehmensbefragung im II. Quartal 2009."
148. Bogedan et al., "Wie krisenfest sind betriebliche Bündnisse".
149. Zagelmayer, "Companylevel collective agreements during the 2008-2010 crisis."
150. Lehndorff, "Before the crisis, in the crisis, and beyond."
151. Ines Zapf and Wolfram Brehmer, "Flexibilität in der Wirtschaftskrise: Arbeitszeitkonten haben sich bewährt," IAB Kurzbericht 22 (2010): 2.
152. On average, employees had accumulated a surplus of thirty-eight hours at the time of the study in 2010.
153. Burda and Hunt, "What Explains the German Labor Market Miracle."
154. Fuchs et al., "Prognose 2010/2011."
155. Johann Fuchs, Markus Hummel, Sabine Klinger, Eugen Spitznagel, Susanne Wanger, and Gerd Zika, "Entwicklung des Arbeitsmarktes 2010: Die Spuren der Krise sind noch länger sichtbar," IAB-Kurzbericht 3 (2010): 3.
156. Furthermore, a considerable number of firms in all other sectors also deployed at least one instrument to save employment, such as in the construction sector (58 percent of all firms), retail (52 percent), transportation and news (53 percent), as well as other public and private services (41 percent).
157. Bogedan et al., "Betriebliche Beschäftigungssicherung in der Krise," 9.
158. Heckmann et al., "Unternehmensbefragung im II. Quartal 2009."
159. German Council of Economic Experts, "Chancen für einen stabilen Aufschwung-Jahresgutachten 2010-11".
160. Boysen-Hogrefe and Groll, "The German Labour Market Miracle."
161. Möller, "German Labor Market Response".
162. German Council of Economic Experts, "Chancen für einen stabilen Aufschwung-Jahresgutachten 2010-11."
163. This point was further confirmed in interviews with DAX firms as well as Gesamtmetall, the peak employer association in the metal industry.
164. Schmitt, "Labor Market Policy in the Great Recession," 19.
165. Möller, "German Labor Market Response".
166. Boysen-Hogrefe and Groll, "The German Labour Market Miracle".
167. Burda and Hunt, "What explains the German Labor Market Miracle."
168. Johann Fuchs, Markus Hummel, Sabine Klinger, Eugen Spitznagel, Susanne Wanger, Enzo Weber and Gerd Zika, "Neue Arbeitsmarktprognose 2011: Rekorde und Risiken" IABKurzbericht 07 (2011).
169. Christian Hohendanner, "Befristete Arbeitsverträge zwischen Auf-und Abschwung: Unsichere Zeiten, unsichere Verträge?" IAB Kurzbericht 14 (2010): 6.
170. Johannes Giesecke and Philip Wotschak, "Flexibilisierung in Zeiten der Krise: Verlierer sind junge und gering qualifizierte Beschäftigte," WZBrief Arbeit 01 (2009).
171. Bundesagentur für Arbeit (BA). Der Arbeits-und Ausbildungsmarkt im Oktober 2009 (Nürnberg: BA 2009).
172. Eichhorst and Marx, "Reforming German Labor Market Institutions."
173. Manow and Seils, "Adjusting Badly."
174. For example, in April 2011 the chemical industry agreed on a 4.1 percent wage increase.
175. Sandra Vogel, "Social Partners in Chemicals Negotiate New Collective Agreement," European Industrial Relations Observatory Online (May 27, 2011), http://www.eurofound.europa.eu/eiro/2011/04/articles/de1104029i.htm (accessed April 15, 2012).