Evaluating explanatory models of the spatial pattern of surface climate trends using model selection and bayesian averaging methods

Climate Dynamics

Volumn 39, Issue 12, 2012, Pages 2867-2882

  McKitrick, Ross ^a   Tole, Lise ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF GUELPH   (Canada)

^b UNIVERSITY OF STRATHCLYDE   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Bayesian model averaging; Climate data contamination, spatial autocorrelation; Encompassing tests; GCM testing; Non nested tests; Spatial trend patterns

Indexed keywords

AUTOCORRELATION; BAYESIAN ANALYSIS; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE MODELING; GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL; SPATIAL ANALYSIS; TREND ANALYSIS;

EID: 84869431202     PISSN: 09307575     EISSN: 14320894     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1418-9     Document Type: Article

References (39)

1. Anselin L, Bera AK, Florax R, Yoon MJ (1996) Simple diagnostic tests for spatial dependence. Regional Science and Urban Economics 26: 77-104.
2. Berk RA, Fovell RG, Schoenberg F, Weiss RE (2001) The use of statistical tools for evaluating computer simulations. Climatic Change 51(2): 119-130.
3. Brohan P, Kennedy JJ, Harris I, Tett SFB, Jones PD (2006) Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: a new dataset from 1850. J Geophys Res 111: D12106. doi: 10. 1029/2005JD006548.
4. CCSP (2008) Climate models: an assessment of strengths and limitations. A report by the U. S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research In: Bader DC, Covey C, Gutowski Jr WJ, Held IM, Kunkel KE, Miller RL, Tokmakian RT, Zhang MH (eds), Department of Energy, Office of Biological and Environmental Research, Washington, DC.
5. Covey C, AchutaRao KM, Cubasch U, Jones P, Lambert SJ, Mann ME, Phillips TJ, Taylor KE (2003) An overview of results from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Global Planet Change 37: 103-133.
6. Davidson R, MacKinnon JG (1981) Several tests for model specification in the presence of alternative hypotheses. Econometrica 49(3): 781-793.
7. Davidson R, MacKinnon JG (2004) Econometric theory and methods. Toronto, Oxford.
8. 2 emissions as a proxy for anthropogenic influence on lower tropospheric temperature trends. Geophys Res Lett 31: L05204. doi: 10. 1029/2003GL019024.
9. De Laat ATJ, Maurellis AN (2006) Evidence for influence of anthropogenic surface processes on lower tropospheric and surface temperature trends. Int J Climatol 26: 897-913.
10. Easterly W, Sewadeh M (2003) World Bank global development network growth data base. http://www.worldbank.org/research/growth/GDNdata.htm. Accessed fall 2003.
11. Fernandez C, Ley E, Steel M (2001) Benchmark priors for Bayesian model averaging. Journal of Econometrics 100: 381-427.
12. Gleckler PJ, Taylor KE, Doutriaux C (2008) Performance metrics for climate models. J Geophys Res 113: D06104. doi: 10. 1029/2007JD008972.
13. Hegerl G, Hasselmann K, Cubash U, Mitchell J, Roeckner E, Voss R, Waszkewitz J (1997) Multi-fingerprint detection and attribution analysis of greenhouse gas, greenhouse gas-plus-aerosol and solar forced climate change. Clim Dyn 13(9): 613-634.
14. Hegerl GC, Zwiers FW, Braconnot P, Gillett NP, Luo Y, Marengo Orsini JA, Nicholls N, Penner JE, Stott PA (2007) Under-standing and attributing climate change. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds), Climate Change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge and New York.
15. Hoeting J, Madigan D, Raftery A, Volinsky C (1999) Bayesian model averaging: a tutorial. Statistical Science 14: 382-417.
16. Jenne RL (1974) Jenne's northern hemisphere climatology, monthly, 1950-64. National Center for Atmospheric Research Dataset DS205. 0. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO.
17. Jun M, Knutti R, Nychka DW (2008) Spatial analysis to quantify numerical model bias and dependence: how many climate models are there? Journal of the American Statistical Association 108(483): 934-947. doi: 10. 1198/016214507000001265.
18. Kaufmann RK, Stern DI (2004) A statistical evaluation of atmosphere-ocean general circulation models: complexity vs. simplicity. Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute Department of Economics Working Paper 0411, May 2004.
19. Kiehl JT (2007) Twentieth century climate model response and climate sensitivity. Geophys Res Lett 34: L22710. doi: 10. 1029/2007GL031383.
20. Knutson TR, Delworth TL, Dixon KW, Held IM, Lu J, Ramaswamy V, Schwartzkopf MD, Stenchikov G, Stouffer RJ (2006) Assessment of twentieth-century regional surface temperature trends using the GFDL CM2 coupled models. J Clim. 19: 1624-1651.
21. Knutti R (2008) Why are climate models reproducing the observed global surface warming so well? Geophys Res Lett 35: L18704. doi: 10. 1029/2008GL034932.
22. Knutti R, Hegerl G (2008) The equilibrium sensitivity of the Earth's temperature to radiation changes. Nat Geosci 1: 735-743. doi: 10. 1038/ngeo337.
23. Madigan D, York J (1995) Bayesian graphical models for discrete data. International Statistical Review 63: 215-232.
24. McKitrick RR (2010) Atmospheric oscillations do not explain the temperature-industrialization correlation. Stat Polit Policy 1(1).
25. McKitrick R, Michaels PJ (2004) A Test of Corrections for Extraneous Signals in Gridded Surface Temperature Data. Climate Research 26: 159-173.
26. McKitrick RR, Michaels PJ (2007) Quantifying the influence of anthropogenic surface processes and inhomogeneities on gridded global climate data. J Geophys Res 112: D24S09. doi: 10. 1029/2007JD008465.
27. McKitrick RR, Nierenberg N (2010) Socioeconomic patterns in climate data. J Econ Social Meas 35(3, 4): 149-175. doi: 10. 3233/JEM-2010-0336.
28. McKitrick RR, McIntyre S, Herman C (2010) Panel and Multivariate Methods for Tests of Trend Equivalence in Climate Data Sets. Atmospheric Science Letters. doi: 10. 1002/asl. 290.
29. Mears CA, Schabel MC, Wentz FJ (2003) A reanalysis of the MSU channel 2 tropospheric temperature record. J Clim 16(22): 3650-3664.
30. Michaels PJ, Knappenberger PC, Balling RC Jr, Davis RE (2000) Observed warming in cold anticyclones. Climate Research 14: 1-6.
31. Mizon GE (1984) The encompassing approach in econometrics. In: Hendry DF, Wallis KF (eds) Econometrics and quantitative economics. Basil Blackwell, Oxford, pp 135-172.
32. Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP, van der Linden PJ, Hanson CE (eds) (2007) Contribution of working group II to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge and New York.
33. Pisati M (2001) Tools for spatial data analysis. Stata Tech Bull STB-60, March 2001, pp 21-37.
34. Randall DA, Wood RA, Bony S, Colman R, Fichefet T, Fyfe J, Kattsov V, Pitman A, Shukla J, Srinivasan J, Stouffer RJ, Sumi A, Taylor KE (2007) Climate Models and Their Evaluation. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M Miller HL (eds) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge and New York.
35. Santer BD, Thorne PW, Haimberger L, Taylor KE, Wigley TML, Lanzante JR, Solomon S, Free M, Gleckler PJ, Jones PD (2008) Consistency of modelled and observed temperature trends in the tropical troposphere. Int J Climatol. doi: 10. 1002/joc. 1756.
36. Schmidt G (2009) Spurious correlation between recent warming and indices of local economic activity. Int J Climatol. doi: 10. 1002/joc. 1831.
37. Schwartz SE, Charlson RJ, Rodhe H (2007) Quantifying climate change-too rosy a picture? Nat Rep Clim Change 2: 23-24.
38. Shukla J, DelSole T, Fennessy M, Kinter J, Paolino D (2006) Climate model fidelity and projections of climate change. Geophy Res Lett 33: L07702, doi: 10. 1029/2005GL025579.
39. Spencer RW, Christy JC (1990) Precise monitoring of global temperature trends from satellites. Science 247: 1558-1562.