A Comparative Evaluation of Short-Term Streamflow Forecasting Using Time Series Analysis and Rainfall-Runoff Models in eWater Source

Water Resources Management

Volumn 26, Issue 15, 2012, Pages 4397-4415

  Dutta, Dushmanta ^a,c   Welsh, Wendy D ^a,c   Vaze, Jai ^a,c   Kim, Shaun S H ^a,c   Nicholls, David ^b,c  

^a CSIRO   (Australia)

^b DA Nicholls Pty Ltd   (Australia)

^c UNIVERSITY OF CANBERRA   (Australia)

Author keywords

eWater source; Rainfall runoff model; River system model; Stream flow forecast; Time series analysis

Indexed keywords

AUSTRALIA; COMPARATIVE EVALUATIONS; COOPERATIVE RESEARCH CENTRES; EWATER SOURCE; HIGH QUALITY; INTEGRATED SYSTEMS; LINEAR TECHNIQUES; MURRAY RIVER; MURRAY-DARLING BASIN; NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS; OBSERVED DATA; QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST; RAINFALL FORECASTING; RAINFALL RUNOFF; RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELS; RIVER SYSTEMS; SEAMLESS INTEGRATION; STREAMFLOW FORECAST; STREAMFLOW FORECASTING; STREAMFLOW PREDICTION; SUBBASINS; WATER RESOURCES PLANNING;

RIVERS; RUNOFF; TIME SERIES ANALYSIS; WEATHER FORECASTING;

STREAM FLOW;

COMPARATIVE STUDY; RAINFALL; RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELING; RIVER SYSTEM; SOFTWARE; STREAMFLOW; TIME SERIES ANALYSIS; WATER MANAGEMENT; WATER RESOURCE; WEATHER FORECASTING;

AUSTRALIA; MURRAY-DARLING BASIN;

EID: 84868203528     PISSN: 09204741     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s11269-012-0151-9     Document Type: Article

References (65)

1. Akaike H (1973) Information Theory and an Extension of the Maximum Likelihood Principle. 2nd International Symposium on Information Theory, Akademia Kiado, Budapest, pp. 267-281.
2. Anderson ML, Chen Z-Q, Kavva ML, Feldman A (2002) Coupling HEC-HMS with atmospheric models for prediction of watershed Runoff. J Hydrol Eng 7(3): 312-318.
3. Andréassian V, Perrin C, Michel C, Iolanda US, Lavabre J (2001) Impact of imperfect rainfall knowledge on the efficiency and the parameters of watershed models. J Hydrol 250: 206-223.
4. Argent RM, Perraud J-M, Rahman JM, Grayson RB, Podger GM (2009) A new approach to water quality modelling and environmental decision support systems. Environ Model Softw 24(7): 809-818.
5. Awwad HM, Valdes JB (1992) Adaptive parameter estimation for multisite hydrologic forecasting. ASCE J Hydraul Eng 118(9): 1201-1221.
6. Awwad HM, Valdes JB, Restrepo PJ (1994) Streamflow forecasting for Han River basin, Korea. ASCE J Water Resour Plan Manag 120(5): 651-673.
7. Barrett DJ, Kuzmin VA, Walker JP, McVicar TR, Draper C (2008) Improving stream flow forecasting by integrating satellite observations, in situ data and catchment models using model-data assimilation methods. eWater Technical Report, eWater Cooperative Research Centre, Canberra 59p.
8. BoM (2009) NMOC Operations Bulletin No. 78. Bureau of Meteorology, Australian Government 6p.
9. BoM (2010) Operational implementation of the ACCESS Numerical Weather Prediction systems. NMOC Operations Bulletin No. 83, Bureau of Meteorology, Australian Government 34p.
10. Boughton WC (2004) The Australian water balance model. Environ Model Softw 19: 943-956.
11. Bowerman BL, O'Connell RT (1993) Forecasting and Time Series: an applied approach. Wadsworth, Inc. Third Ed.
12. Box GEP, Jenkins GM (1970) Time series analysis forecasting and control. Holden-Day, San Fracisco.
13. Box GEP, Pierce DA (1970) Distribution of the residual autocorrelations in autoregressive-integrated moving average time series models. J Am Stat Assoc 65: 1509-1526.
14. Burnash RJC, Ferral RL, McGuire RA (1973) A generalised streamflow simulation system-Conceptual modelling for digital computers. Joint Federal and State River Forecast Center, Sacramento, Technical Report, 204 pp.
15. Cerlini PB, Emanuel KA, Todini E (2005) Orographic effects on convective precipitation and space-time rainfall variability: preliminary results. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 9: 285-299.
16. Chiew FHS, Peel MC, Western AW (2002) Application and testing of the simple rainfall-runoff model SIMHYD. In: Singh VP, Frevert DK (eds) Mathematical models of small watershed hydrology and applications. Water Resources Publications, Littleton, pp 335-367.
17. Clark M, Hay LE (2004) Use of medium-range numerical weather prediction model output to produce forecasts of streamflow. J Hydrometeorol 5: 15-32.
18. Close AF (1996) The BIGMOD model of flow in the River Murray. MDBC Technical Report 96/12. Murray-Darling Basin Commission, Canberra.
19. Collischonn W, Haas R, Andreolli I, Tucci CEM (2005) Forecasting River Uruguay flow using rainfall forecasts from a regional weather-prediction model. J Hydrol 205: 87-88.
20. Cortez P, Rocha M (2004) Evolving time series forecasting ARMA models. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Netherlands, 25p.
21. Croke BFW, Andrews F, Jakeman AJ, Cuddy SM, Luddy A (2006) IHACRES Classic Plus: a redesign of the IHACRES rainfall-runoff model. Environ Model Softw 21: 426-427.
22. CSIRO (2008) Water availability in the ovens, A report to the Australian Government from the CSIRO Murray-Darling Basin Sustainable Yields Project. CSIRO, Australia, 100 p.
23. Cuo L, Pagano T (2011) A review of quantitative precipitation forecasts and their Use in short- to medium-range streamflow forecasting. J Hydrometeorol. doi: 10. 1175/2011JHM1347. 1.
24. Demeritt D, Cloke H, Pappenberger F, Thielen J, Bartholmes J, Ramos M-H (2007) Ensemble predictions and perceptions of risk, uncertainty and error in flood forecasting. Environ Hazards 7(2): 115-127.
25. Duan QY, Gupta VK, Sorooshian S (1993) Shuffled complex evolution approach for effective and efficient global minimization. J Optimiz Theory Appl 76(3): 501-521.
26. Dutta D, Herath S, Musiake K (2000) Flood inundation simulation in a river basin using a physically based distributed hydrologic model. Hydrol Process 14(3): 497-520.
27. Dutta D, Alam J, Umeda K, Hayashi M, Hironaka S (2007) A two dimensional hydrodynamic model for flood inundation simulation: a case study in the Lower Mekong River basin. Hydrol Process 21: 1223-1237.
28. Ebert EE, McBride JL (2000) Verification of precipitation in weather systems: determination of systematic errors. J Hydrol 239: 179-202.
29. th July 2011, 46 pp.
30. Frausto-Solis J, Pita E, Lagunas J (2008) Short-term streamflow forecasting: ARIMA vs Neural Networks. American Conference on Applied Mathematics (MATH '08), Harvard, Massachusetts, USA, pp 402-407.
31. George B, Adams R, Ryu D, Western AW, Simon P, Nawarathna B (2011) An Assessment of Potential Operational Benefits of Short-term Stream Flow Forecasting in the Broken Catchment, Victoria, Proceedings of the 34th IAHR World Congress, Brisbane, Australia.
32. Ghile YB, Schulze RE (2010) Evaluation of three numerical weather prediction models for short and medium range agrohydrological applications. Water Resour Manag 24(5): 1005-1028.
33. Golding BW (2000) Quantitative precipitation forecasting in the UK. J Hydrol 239: 286-305.
34. Gouweleeuw BT, Leahy GP, Weerts AH (2009) Quantitative precipitation forecast and early warning: the Hunter Valley flood of June 2007, 18th World IMACS/MODSIM Congress, Cairns, Australia, pp. 3711-3717.
35. Jeffrey SJ, Carter JO, Moodie KB, Beswick AR (2001) Using spatial interpolation to construct a comprehensive archive of Australian climate data. Environ Model Softw 16: 309-330.
36. Kaufmann P, Schubiger F, Binder P (2003) Precipitation forecasting by a mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) model: eight years of experience. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 7: 812-832.
37. Kim SB, Kim BK, Kim HS (2008) Flood simulation using the gauge-adjusted radar rainfall and physics-based distributed hydrologic model. Hydrol Process 22: 4400-4414.
38. Kim SSH, Dutta D, Singh R, Chen J, Welsh WD (2011) Providing flexibility in GUI-based river modelling software-Using plug-ins to create Custom Functions in Source IMS. Proceedings of the MODSIM 2011 International Congress on Modelling and Simulation, 12-16 December 2011, Perth, Australia pp 2345-2351.
39. Koussis AD, Lagouvardos K, Mazi K, Kotroni V, Sitzmann D, Lang J, Zaiss H, Buzzi A, Malguzzi P (2003) Flood forecasts for urban basins with integrated hydro-meteorological model. J Hydrol Eng 8(1): 1-11.
40. Kuzmin VA, Seed AW, Walker JP (2007) Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology forecast and real-time observational hydro-meteorological data for hydrologic forecasting. eWater Technical Report, 29 p.
41. Mohammadi K, Eslami HR, Kahawita R (2006) Parameter estimation of an ARMA model for river flow forecasting using goal programming. J Hydrol 331: 293-299.
42. Mohan S, Vedula S (1995) Multiplicative seasonal Arima model for longterm forecasting of inflows. Water Resour Manag 9(2): 115-126.
43. Moriasi DN, Arnold JG, van Liew MW, Bingner RL, Harmel RD, Veith TL (2007) Model evaluation guidelines for systematic quantification of accuracy in watershed simulations. Am Soc Agric Biol Eng 50(3): 885-900.
44. Nash JE, Sutcliffe JV (1970) River flow forecasting through conceptual models, I, A discussion of principles. J Hydrol 10: 282-290.
45. Newbold P (1981) Some recent developments in time series analysis. Int Stat Rev 49: 53-66.
46. Parliament of Victoria (1992) Heritage Rivers Act, version No. 014 incorporating amendments as at 7 December 2007, 33 p.
47. Perera BJC, James B, Kularathna MDU (2005) Computer software tool REALM for sustainable water allocation and management. J Environ Manag 77: 291-300.
48. Perrin C, Michel C, Andreassian V (2003) Improvement of a parsimonious model for streamflow simulations. J Hydrol 279: 275-289.
49. Rahman JM, Seaton SP, Perraud J-M, Hotham H, Verrelli DI, Coleman JR (2003) It's TIME for a new environmental modelling framework. MODSIM 4: 1727-1732.
50. Rosenbrock HH (1960) An automatic method for finding the greatest or least value of a function. Comput J 3: 175-184.
51. Simons M, Podger G, Cooke R (1996) IQQM-A hydrologic modelling tool for water resource and salinity management. Environ Softw 11(1-3): 185-192.
52. Sprave J (1994) Linear neighborhood evolution strategy. 3rd Annual Conference on Evolutionary Programming, World Scientific, Singapore, pp. 42-51.
53. Tang Z, Almeida C, Fishwick PA (1991) Time series forecasting using neural networks vs. Box-Jenkins methodology. Simulation 303-310.
54. Teng J, Chiew FHS, Vaze J, Post DA (2011) Calibration of hydrological models for medium-term streamflow prediction in a changing climate. Hydro-climatology: Variability and Change Symposium, IUGG2011, IAHS Publication 344. IAHS Press, Wallingford, UK.
55. Tucci CEM, Collischonn W (2006) Flood forecasting. WMO Bull 55(3): 179-184.
56. Vaze J, Barnett P, Beale GTH, Dawes W, Evans R, Tuteja NK, Murphy B, Geeves G, Miller M (2004) Modelling the effects of landuse change on water and salt delivery from a catchment affected by dryland salinity in south-east Australia. Hydrol Process 18: 1613-1637.
57. Vaze J, Post DA, Chiew FHS, Perraud J-M, Viney N, Teng J (2010) Climate nonstationarity-Validity of calibrated rainfall-runoff models for use in climate change studies. J Hydrol 394: 447-457.
58. Vaze J, Chiew FHS, Perraud J-M, Viney N, Post DA, Teng J, Wang B, Lerat J, Goswami M (2011a) Rainfall-runoff modelling across southeast Australia: datasets, models and results. Aust J Water Resour 14(2): 101-116.
59. Vaze J, Post DA, Chiew FHS, Perraud J-M, Viney N, Teng J (2011b) Effect of input rainfall data and spatial modelling on rainfall runoff model performance and optimised parameter values. J Hydrometeorol. doi: 10. 1175/2011JHM1340. 1.
60. Vaze J, Davidson A, Teng J, Podger G (2011c) Impact of climate change on water availability in the Macquarie-Castlereagh river basin in Australia. Hydrol Process 25(16): 2597-2612. doi: 10. 1002/hyp. 8030.
61. Vicens G, Rodriquez-Iturbe I, Schaake T (1975) A Bayesian framework for the use of regional information in hydrology. Water Resour Res 11(3): 405-415.
62. Viney NR, Perraud J-M, Vaze J, Chiew FHS, Post DA, Yang A (2009) The usefulness of bias constraints in model calibration for regionalisation to ungauged catchments. 18th World IMACS / MODSIM Congress, Cairns, Australia.
63. Wang W, van Gelder P, Vrijling JK (2005) Improving Daily Stream Flow Forecasts by Combining ARMA And ANN Models. International conference on innovation advances and implementation of flood forecasting technology, Norway, 1-13.
64. Welsh W, Vaze J, Dutta D, Rassam D, Rahman J, Jolly I, Wallbrink P, Podger G, Bethune M, Hardy MJ, Teng J, Lerat J (2012) An integrated modelling framework for regulated river systems. Environ Model Softw. doi: 10. 1016/j. envsoft. 2012. 02. 022.
65. Wu X (2010) Quarterly numerical weather prediction model performance summary October to December 2009. Aust Meteorol Oceanogr J 60: 87-90.