Evaluation of three numerical weather prediction models for short and medium range agrohydrological applications

Water Resources Management

Volumn 24, Issue 5, 2010, Pages 1005-1028

  Ghile, Yonas Beyene ^a   Schulze, Roland E ^b  

^a University of Massachusetts   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF KWAZULU NATAL   (South Africa)

Author keywords

ACRU; NWP models; Streamflow forecasting

Indexed keywords

HYDROLOGICAL CONDITION; LEADTIME; MEDIUM RANGE; NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS; NWP MODEL; OVER-ESTIMATION; QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST; RAINFALL EVENT; RAINFALL FORECASTS; RAINY DAYS; SOUTH AFRICA; STATISTICAL COMPARISONS; STREAMFLOW FORECASTING; WEIGHTED AVERAGING;

CATCHMENTS; ESTIMATION; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; RAIN; STREAM FLOW; STRUCTURAL FRAMES;

WEATHER FORECASTING;

CATCHMENT; FORECASTING METHOD; NUMERICAL MODEL; PRECIPITATION ASSESSMENT; STATISTICAL ANALYSIS; STREAMFLOW;

KWAZULU-NATAL; SOUTH AFRICA;

EID: 77952239651     PISSN: 09204741     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s11269-009-9483-5     Document Type: Article

References (37)

1. Ahmed AJ (2007) Artificial neural network model for synthetic streamflow generation. Water Resour Manag 21: 1015-1029.
2. Ahrens B, Jaun S (2007) On evaluation of ensemble precipitation forecasts with observation based ensembles. Adv Geosci 10: 139-144.
3. Anstee S (2004) Application of numerical weather prediction to rapid environmental assessment. DSTO-GD-0403. DSTO Systems Sciences Laboratory, Department of Defence, Edinburgh.
4. Aqil M, Kita I, Yano A, Nishiyama S (2007) Neural networks for real time catchment flow modeling and prediction. Water Resour Manag 21: 1781-1796.
5. Bocchiola D, Rosso R (2006) The use of scale recursive estimation for short term quantitative precipitation forecast. Phys Chem Earth 31: 1228-1239.
6. Davies T, Cullen MJP, Malcolm AJ, Mawson MH, Staniforth A, White AA, Wood N (2005) A new dynamical core for the MetOoffice's global and regional modelling of the atmosphere. Q J R Meteorol Soc 131: 1759-1782.
7. Dong S, Zhou H, Xu H (2004) A forecast model of hydrologic single element medium and long period based on rough set theory. Water Resour Manag 18: 483-495.
8. Ebert EE (2001) Ability of a poor man's ensemble to predict the probability and distribution of precipitation. Mon Weather Rev 129: 2461-2480.
9. Engelbrecht FA (2005) Simulations of climate and climate change over southern and tropical Africa with the Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric model. In: Schulze RE (ed) Climate change and water resources in southern Africa: studies on scenarios, impacts, vulnerabilities and adaptation. Water Research Commission, Pretoria, chapter 4, WRC Report 1430/01/06, pp 57-74.
10. Engelbrecht FA, McGregor JL, Engelbrecht CJ (2008) Dynamics of the conformal-cubic atmospheric model projected climate-change signal over southern Africa. Int J Climatol 29(7): 1013-1033. doi: 10/1002/joc. 1742.
11. TM 8. 2, Copyright© 1995-2007. ESRI, Redlands.
12. Federico S, Avolio E, Bellecci C, Colacino M (2006) The application of LEPS technique for quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) in southern Italy. Adv Geosci 7: 1-8.
13. Golding BW (2000) Quantitative precipitation forecasting in the UK. J Hydrol 239: 286-305.
14. Goswami M, O' Connor KM (2006) Real time flow forecasting in the absence of quantitative precipitation forecasts: a multi-model approach. J Hydrol 334: 125-140.
15. Habets F, Lemoigne P, Noilhan J (2004) On the utility of operational precipitation forecasts to served as input for streamflow forecasting. J Hydrol 293: 270-288.
16. Hay LE, Clark MP (2003) Use of statistically and dynamically downscaled atmospheric model output for hydrologic simulations in three mountainous basins in the Western United States. J Hydrol 282: 56-75.
17. Landman WA, Engelbrecht FA, Beraki A, Engelbrecht CJ, Mbedzi M, Gill T, Ntsangwane L (2009) Model output statistics applied to multi-model ensemble long-range forecasts over South Africa. Water Research Commission, Pretoria, Project Report.
18. Maini P, Kumar A, Singh SV, Rathore LS (2004) Operational model for forecasting location specific quantitative precipitation and probability of precipitation over India. J Hydrol 288: 170-188.
19. McGregor JL (2005) C-CAM: geometric aspects and dynamical formulation. CSIRO Atmospheric Research Technical Paper, No 70, p 41.
20. Potegieter CJ (2007) Accuracy and skill of Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric model in short-range weather forecasting over southern Africa. MSc thesis, University of Pretoria, RSA.
21. Roads J (2004) Experimental weekly to seasonal, global to regional US precipitation forecasts. J Hydrol 288: 153-169.
22. Schaake JC, Hamill TM, Buizza R, Clark M (2007) The Hydrological ensemble prediction experiment (HEPEX). Am Meteorol Soc 88(10): 1541-1547. doi: 10. 1175/BAMS-88-10-1541.
23. Schäfer NW, van Rooyen PG (1993) Operational applications of the Mgeni systems analysis. In: Lorentz SA, Kienzle SW, Dent MC (eds) Proceedings of the Sixth South African National Hydrological Symposium. University of Natal, Pietermaritzburg, RSA. 8-10 September, 1993, pp 385-394.
24. Schulze RE (1995) Hydrology and agrohydrology. A text to accompany the ACRU 3. 00 agrohydrological modelling system. Water Research Commission, Pretoria, WRC Report TT69/95, chapter 1, AT1-1 to AT1-13.
25. Schulze RE (1997) Impacts of global climate change in a hydrologically vulnerable region: challenges to South African hydrologists. Prog Phys Geogr 21: 113-116.
26. Schulze RE (2006) South African atlas of climatology and agrohydrology. Water Research Commission, Pretoria, WRC Report 1489/1/06.
27. Schulze RE, Perks LA (2000) Assessment of the climate change on hydrology and water Resources in South Africa. ACRUcons Report 33, pp 92, School of Bioresources Engineering and Environmental Hydrology, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, RSA.
28. Schulze RE, Smithers JC (2004) The ACRU agrohydrological modelling system as of 2002: background, concepts, structure, output, typical applications and operations. Water Research Commission, Pretoria, WRC Report No. 749/1/04.
29. Schulze RE, Lorentz SA, Kienzle SW, Perks LA (2004) Case study 3: modelling the impacts of land-use and climate change on hydrological responses in the mixed underdeveloped/ developed Mgeni catchment South Africa. In: Kabat P, Claussen M, Dirmeyer PA, Gash JHC, Bravo deGuenni L, Meybeck M, Pielke RA Snr, Vörösmarty CJ, Hutejes RWA, Lu{double acute}tkemeier S (eds) Vegetation, water, humans and the climate. A new perspective on an interactive system. Springer, Heidelberg, chapter D7, pp 441-453.
30. Sibson R (1981) A brief description of natural neighbor interpolation, chapter 2 in interpolating multivariate data. Wiley, New York, pp 21-36, (cited by ESRI, 2005).
31. Smithers JC, Schulze RE (1995) ACRU agrohydrological modelling system: user manual Version 3.00. Water Research Commission, Pretoria, WRC Report TT70/95.
32. Tennant WJ, Toth Z, Rae KJ (2007) Application of the NCEP ensemble prediction system to medium-range forecasting in South Africa: new products, benefits and challenges. Weather Forecast 22: 18-35.
33. Toth Z, Kalnay E (1997) Ensemble forecasting at NCEP and the breeding method. Mon Weather Rev 125: 3297-3319.
34. Toth Z, Kalnay E, Tracton SM, Wobus R, Irwin J (1997) A synoptic evaluation of the NCEP ensemble. Weather Forecast 12: 140-153.
35. Toth Z, Mendez MP, Vintzileos A (2006) Bridging the gap between weather and climate forecasting: research priorities for intra-seasonal prediction. Paper presented at a workshop, NCEP, Maryland, 27 April 2006.
36. Wilks DS (1995) Statistical methods in the atmospheric sciences. Academic, San Diego.
37. Zhu Y, Toth Z, Wobus R, Richardson D, Mylne K (2002) The economic value of ensemble-based weather forecasts. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 83: 73-83.