The issue of timing and opinion congruity in spiral of silence research: Why does research suggest limited empirical support for the theory?

International Journal of Public Opinion Research

Volumn 24, Issue 3, 2012, Pages 269-286

  Bodor, Tamás ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN STEVENS POINT   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 84866344499     PISSN: 09542892     EISSN: 14716909     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1093/ijpor/eds016     Document Type: Article

References (44)

1. Bodor, T. (2011). Hungary's Black Sunday of public opinion research: The anatomy of a failed election forecast. International Journal of Public Opinion Research. Advance online publication. doi: 10.1093/ijpor/edr039.
2. Csikszentmihalyi, M. (1991). Reflection on the spiral of silence. In J. A. Anderson (Ed.), Communication yearbook, (Vol. 14, pp. 288-297). Newbury Park: Sage.
3. Denton, R. E. (Ed.). (2005). Religion, evangelicals, and moral issues in the 2004 presidential campaign. In The 2004 presidential campaign: A communication perspective (pp. 255-282). Lanham: Rowman & Littlefield.
4. Gallup. (2004). Presidential job approval in depth. Retrieved December 11, 2008, from http://www.gallup.com/poll/1723/Presidential-Job-Approval-Depth. aspx#2.
5. Glynn, C. J., Hayes, A. F., & Shanahan, J. (1997). Perceived support for one's opinions and willingness to speak out: A meta-analysis of survey studies on the Spiral of Silence. Public Opinion Quarterly, 61(3), 452-463.
6. Glynn, C. J., & McLeod, J. M. (1984). Public Opinion du Jour: An examination of the spiral of silence. Public Opinion Quarterly, 48(4), 731-740.
7. Gunther, A. C., Perloff, R. M., & Tsfati, Y. (2008). Public opinion and the third-person effect. In W. Donsbach & M. W. Traugott (Eds.), The SAGE handbook of public opinion research (pp. 184-191). London: Sage.
8. Hayes, A. F. (2007). Exploring the forms of self-censorship: On the spiral of silence and the use of opinion expression avoidance strategies. Journal of Communication, 57, 785-802. (Pubitemid 350302469)
9. Hayes, A. F., Shanahan, J., & Glynn, C. J. (2001). Willingness to express one's opinion in a realistic situation as a function of perceived support for that opinion. International Journal of Public Opinion Research, 13(1), 45-58.
10. Ho, S. S., & McLeod, D. M. (2008). Social-psychological influences on opinion expression in face-to-face and computer-mediated communication. Communication Research, 35(2), 190-207.
11. Huang, H. (2005). A cross-cultural test of the spiral of silence. International Journal of Public Opinion Research, 17(3), 324-345. (Pubitemid 41276772)
12. Katz, C., & Baldassare, M. (1994). Popularity in a freefall: Measuring a spiral of silence at the end of the Bush presidency. International Journal of Public Opinion Research, 6(1), 1-12.
13. Kepplinger, H. M. (2008). Effects of the news media on public opinion. In W. Donsbach & M. W. Traugott (Eds.), The SAGE handbook of public opinion research (pp. 192-204). London: Sage.
14. Kim, S.-H., Han, M., Shanahan, J., & Berdayes, V. (2004). Talking on 'Sunshine in North Korea': A test of the spiral of silence as a theory of powerful mass media. International Journal of Public Opinion Research, 16(1), 39-62. (Pubitemid 39080029)
15. Lin, W.-K., & Pfau, M. (2007). Can inoculation work against the spiral of silence? A study of public opinion on the future of Taiwan. International Journal of Public Opinion Research, 19(2), 155-172.
16. Matthes, J., Morrison, K. R., & Schemer, C. (2010). A spiral of silence for some: Attitude certainty and the expression of political minority opinions. Communication Research, 37(6), 774-800.
17. McDevitt, M., Kiousis, S., & Wahl-Jorgensen, K. (2003). Spiral of moderation: Opinion expression in computer-mediated discussion. International Journal of Public Opinion Research, 15(4), 454-470. (Pubitemid 37528381)
18. McDonald, D. G., Glynn, C. J., Kim, S.-H., & Ostman, R. E. (2001). The spiral of silence in the 1948 presidential election. Communication Research, 28(2), 139-155.
19. MediaMonitor. (2004a). Campaign 2004 final: How TV news covered the general election campaign. Washington, DC: Center for Media and Public Affairs.
20. MediaMonitor. (2004b). Campaign 2004: The summer: How the media covered the presidential campaign during summer 2004. Washington, DC: Center for Media and Public Affairs.
21. Moore, D. W. (2004a). Kerry wins debate. Retrieved from http://www.gallup.com/poll/13237/Kerry-Wins-Debate.aspx.
22. Moore, D. W. (2004b). Standoff in second debate. Retrieved from http://www .gallup.com/poll/13549/Standoff-Second-Debate.aspx.
23. Moscovici, S. (1991). Silent majorities and loud minorities. In J. A. Anderson (Ed.), Communication yearbook, (Vol. 14, pp. 298-308). Newbury Park: Sage.
24. Moy, P. (2008). Pluralistic ignorance and nonattitudes. In W. Donsbach & M. W. Traugott (Eds.), The SAGE handbook of public opinion research (pp. 164-171). London: Sage.
25. Mutz, D. C., & Mondak, J. J. (2006). The workplace as a context for cross-cutting political discourse. The Journal of Politics, 68(1), 140-155. (Pubitemid 43448403)
26. Neuwirth, K. (2000). Testing the spiral of silence model: The case of Mexico. International Journal of Public Opinion Research, 12(2), 138-159.
27. Neuwirth, K., & Frederick, E. (2004). Peer and social influence on opinion expression: Combining the theories of planned behavior and the spiral of silence. Communication Research, 31(6), 669-703. (Pubitemid 39567665)
28. Neuwirth, K., Frederick, E., & Mayo, C. (2007). The spiral of silence and fear of isolation. Journal of Communication, 57, 450-468. (Pubitemid 47261902)
29. Noelle-Neumann, E. (1984). The spiral of silence: Public opinion: Our social skin. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
30. Noelle-Neumann, E. (1991). The theory of public opinion: The concept of the spiral of silence. In J. A. Anderson (Ed.), Communication yearbook, (Vol. 14, pp. 256-287). Newbury Park: Sage.
31. Noelle-Neumann, E. (2001). Commentary. International Journal of Public Opinion Research, 13(1), 59-60.
32. Noelle-Neumann, E., & Petersen, T. (2004). The spiral of silence and the social nature of man. In L. L. Kaid (Ed.), Handbook of political communication research (pp. 339-357). Mahwah: Lawrence Erlbaum.
33. Paternoster, R., Brame, R., Mazerolle, P., & Piquero, A. (1998). Using the correct statistical test for the equality of regression coefficients. Criminology, 36(1), 859-866.
34. Peter, J. (2004). Our long Return to the Concept of Powerful Mass Media: A cross-national comparative investigation of the effects of consonant media coverage. International Journal of Public Opinion Research, 16(2), 144-168. (Pubitemid 39080652)
35. Petric, G., & Pinter, A. (2002). From social perception to public expression of opinion: A structural equation modeling approach to the spiral of silence. International Journal of Public Opinion Research, 14(1), 37-53. (Pubitemid 37446439)
36. Scheufele, D. A. (2008). Spiral of silence theory. In W. Donsbach & M. W. Traugott (Eds.), The SAGE handbook of public opinion research (pp. 173-183). London: Sage.
37. Scheufele, D. A., & Eveland, W. P. (2001). Perceptions of Public Opinion and Public opinion expression. International Journal of Public Opinion Research, 13(1), 25-44.
38. Scheufele, D. A., & Moy, P. (2000). Twenty-five years of the spiral of silence: A conceptual review and empirical outlook. International Journal of Public Opinion Research, 12(1), 3-28.
39. Scheufele, D. A., Shanahan, J., & Lee, E. (2001). Real talk: Manipulating the dependent variable in spiral of silence research. Communication Research, 28(3), 304-324.
40. Shanahan, J., Glynn, C. J., & Hayes, A. (2007). The spiral of silence: A meta-analysis and its impact. In R. W. Preiss, B. M. Gayle, N. Burrell, M. Allen & J. Bryant (Eds.), Mass media effects research: advances through meta-analysis (pp. 415-427). Mahwah: Lawrence Erlbaum.
41. Taylor, D. G. (1982). Pluralistic ignorance and the spiral of silence: A formal nalysis. Public Opinion Quarterly, 46(3), 311-335.
42. White, J. K. (2005). The Armageddon election. In W. Crotty (Ed.), A defining moment: The presidential election of 2004 (pp. 211-235). Armonk: M. E. Sharpe.
43. Willnat, L. (1996). Mass media and political outspokenness in Hong Kong: Linking the third-person effect and the spiral of silence. International Journal of Public Opinion Research, 8(2), 187-212. (Pubitemid 126106528)
44. Willnat, L., Lee, W., & Detenber, B. H. (2002). Individual-level predictors of public outspokenness: A test of the spiral of silence theory in Singapore. International Journal of Public Opinion Research, 14(4), 391-412. (Pubitemid 37446486)