Evidence of recent causal decoupling between solar radiation and global temperature

Environmental Research Letters

Volumn 7, Issue 3, 2012, Pages

  Pasini, Antonello ^a   Triacca, Umberto ^b   Attanasio, Alessandro ^a  

^a CNR   (Italy)

^b UNIVERSITY OF L'AQUILA   (Italy)

Author keywords

causes of recent global warming; Granger causality; sun temperature relationship

Indexed keywords

GLOBAL WARMING; SUN;

CLIMATE SYSTEM; EXTERNAL FORCING; GLOBAL TEMPERATURES; GRANGER CAUSALITY; GRANGER CAUSALITY ANALYSIS; INFERENTIAL METHODS; SUN-TEMPERATURE RELATIONSHIP; TOTAL SOLAR IRRADIANCE;

SOLAR RADIATION;

ATMOSPHERIC FORCING; GLOBAL WARMING; SOLAR RADIATION; TEMPERATURE EFFECT;

EID: 84866342473     PISSN: None     EISSN: 17489326     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/7/3/034020     Document Type: Article

References (39)

1. Allan R J, Nicholls N, Jones P D and Butterworth I J 1991 A further extension of the Tahiti-Darwin SOI, early SOI results and Darwin pressure J. Clim. 4 743-9
2. Attanasio A, Pasini A and Triacca U 2012 A contribution to attribution of recent global warming by out-of-sample Granger causality analysis Atmos. Sci. Lett. 13 67-72
3. Brohan P, Kennedy J J, Harris I, Tett S F B and Jones P D 2006 Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: a new dataset from 1850 J. Geophys. Res. 111 D12106 (Pubitemid 44687620)
4. DelSole T, Tippett M K and Shukla J 2011 A significant component of unforced multidecadal variability in the recent acceleration of global warming J. Clim. 24 909-26
5. Diebold F X and Mariano R S 1995 Comparing predictive accuracy J. Bus. Econom. Stat. 13 253-65
6. Diks C and Mudelsee M 2000 Redundancies in the Earths climatological time series Phys. Lett. A 275 407-14
7. Elsner J B 2006 Evidence in support of the climate change - Atlantic hurricane hypothesis Geophys. Res. Lett. 33 L16705 (Pubitemid 44945746)
8. Elsner J B 2007 Granger causality and Atlantic hurricanes Tellus A 59 476-85 (Pubitemid 47161924)
9. Enfield D B, Mestas-Nunez A M and Trimble P J 2001 The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and its relationship to rainfall and river flows in the continental US Geophys. Res. Lett. 28 2077-80 (Pubitemid 34039420)
10. Granger C W J 1969 Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods Econometrica 37 424-38
11. Granger C W J and Newbold P 1977 Forecasting Economic Time Series (New York: Academic) p 333
12. Hansen J et al 2007 Climate simulations for 1880-2003 with GISS modelE Clim. Dyn. 29 661-96 (Pubitemid 47543430)
13. Jansen E et al 2007 Paleoclimate Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis ed S Solomon (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press) pp 433-97
14. Kaufmann R K and Stern D I 1997 Evidence for human influence on climate from hemispheric temperature relations Nature 388 39-44 (Pubitemid 27283880)
15. Kaufmann R K et al 2003 The effect of vegetation on surface temperature: a statistical analysis of NDVI and climate data Geophys. Res. Lett. 30 2147
16. Kaufmann R K et al 2007 Climate response to rapid urban growth: evidence of a humaninduced precipitation deficit J. Clim. 20 2299-306 (Pubitemid 46930442)
17. Kodra E, Chatterjee S and Ganguly A R 2011 Exploring Granger causality between global average observed time series of carbon dioxide and temperature Theor. Appl. Climatol. 104 325-35
18. Können G P, Jones P D, Kaltofen M H and Allan R J 1998 Pre-1866 extensions of the southern oscillation index using early Indonesian and Tahitian meteorological readings J. Clim. 11 2325-39 (Pubitemid 29123272)
19. Lean J L and Rind D H 2008 How natural and anthropogenic influences alter global and regional surface temperatures: 1889 to 2006 Geophys. Res. Lett. 35 L18701
20. Lockwood M and Fröhlich C 2007 Recent oppositely directed trends in solar climate forcings and the global mean surface air temperature Proc. R. Soc. A 463 2447-60
21. Lütkepohl H 1982 Non-causality due to omitted variables J. Econometr. 19 367-78
22. Lütkepohl H 2005 New Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis (Berlin: Springer)
23. McCracken M W 2007 Asymptotics for out-of-sample tests of Granger causality J. Econometr. 140 719-52 (Pubitemid 47223549)
24. Mohkov I I and Smirnov D A 2008 Diagnostics of cause-effect relation between solar activity and the Earths global surface temperature Izv. Atmos. Ocean. Phys. 44 263-72
25. Mohkov I I et al 2011 Alternating mutual influence of El Nio/Southern Oscillation and Indian monsoon Geophys. Res. Lett. 38 L00F04
26. Mosedale T J, Stephenson D B, Collins M and Mills T C 2006 Granger causality of coupled climate processes: ocean feedback on the North Atlantic oscillation J. Clim. 19 1182-94 (Pubitemid 43670772)
27. Ramaswamy V et al 2001 Radiative forcing of climate change Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis ed J T Houghton (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press) pp 349-416
28. Reichel R, Thejll P and Lassen K 2001 The cause-and-effect relationship of solar cycle length and the Northern Hemisphere air surface temperature J. Geophys. Res. 106 15635-41 (Pubitemid 33727308)
29. Ropelewski C F and Jones P D 1987 An extension of the Tahiti-Darwin southern oscillation index Mon. Weather Rev. 115 2161-5
30. Smith T M and Reynolds R W 2004 Improved extended reconstruction of SST (1854-1997) J. Clim. 17 2466-77 (Pubitemid 38945794)
31. Stauning P 2011 Solar activity-climate relations: a different approach J. Atmos. Sol.-Terr. Phys. 73 1999-2012
32. Sun L and Wang M 1996 Global warming and global dioxide emission: an empirical study J. Environ. Manag. 46 327-43 (Pubitemid 26128667)
33. Triacca U 2001 On the use of Granger causality to investigate the human influence on climate Theor. Appl. Climatol. 69 137-8 (Pubitemid 32939726)
34. Triacca U 2005 Is Granger causality analysis appropriate to investigate the relationship between atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide and global surface air temperature? Theor. Appl. Climatol. 81 133-5 (Pubitemid 40959195)
35. Wang Y-M, Lean J L and Sheeley N R Jr 2005 Modeling the Suns magnetic field and irradiance since 1713 Astrophys. J. 625 522-38 (Pubitemid 40976485)
36. West K D 1996 Asymptotic inference about predictive ability Econometrica 64 1067-84 (Pubitemid 126463654)
37. Wiener N 1956 The theory of prediction Modern Mathematics for Engineers vol 1 ed E F Beckenbach (New York: McGraw-Hill) chapter 8
38. Wu Z, Huang N E, Wallace J W, Smoliak B V and Chen X 2011 On the time-varying trend in global-mean surface temperature Clim. Dyn. 37 759-73
39. Yuval and Hsieh W W 2002 The impact of time-averaging on the detectability of nonlinear empirical relations Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 128 1609-22 (Pubitemid 34878073)