Anticipatory vs adaptive optimization of stand management when tree growth and timber prices are stochastic

Forestry

Volumn 85, Issue 4, 2012, Pages 463-472

  Pukkala, Timo ^a   Kellomäki, Seppo ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF EASTERN FINLAND   (Finland)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE EFFECT; CONIFEROUS FOREST; DECIDUOUS FOREST; FOREST MANAGEMENT; GROWTH RATE; MIXED FOREST; OPTIMIZATION; PRICE DYNAMICS; PROFITABILITY; RISK ASSESSMENT; STAND STRUCTURE; STOCHASTICITY; THINNING; TIMBER HARVESTING;

PICEA ABIES; PINUS SYLVESTRIS;

EID: 84866094077     PISSN: 0015752X     EISSN: 14643626     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1093/forestry/cps043     Document Type: Article

References (31)

1. Anonymous. 2006 Hyvän metsänhoidon suositukset. Metsätalouden kehittämiskeskus Tapio. Metsakustannus Oy, Helsinki. 100 pp.
2. Brazee, R.J. and Bulte, E. 2000 Optimal harvesting and timing with stochastic prices. For. Sci. 46 (1), 23-31.
3. Brazee, R. and Mendelsohn, R. 1988 Timber harvesting with fluctuating prices. For. Sci. 34 (2), 359-372.
4. Ge, Z.M., Zhou, X., Kellomaki, S., Wang, K.Y., Peltola, H., Vaisanen, H. et al. 2010 Effects of changing climate on water and nitrogen availability with implications on the productivity of Norway spruce stands in southern Finland. Ecol. Modelling 221 (13-14), 1731-1743.
5. Gong, P. 1998 Risk preferences and adaptive harvest policies for even-aged stand management. For. Sci. 44 (4), 496-506.
6. Gong, P. and Yin, R. 2004 Optimal harvest strategy for slash pine plantations: the impact of autocorrelated prices for multiple products. For. Sci. 50 (1), 10-19.
7. Hynynen, J., Ojansuu, R., Hokka, H., Siipilehto, J., Salminen, H. and Haapala, P. 2002 Models for predicting stand development in MELA system. Finnish Forest Research Institute, Research Papers. 835, 116.
8. Hyytiainen, K. and Tahvonen, O. 2002 Economics of forest thinnings and rotation periods for Finnish conifer cultures. Scand. J. For. Res. 17, 274-288.
9. Hyytiainen, K., Hari, P., Kokkila, T., Makela, A., Tahvonen, O. and Taipale, J. 2004 Connecting process-based forest growth model to stand-level economic optimization. Can. J. For. Res. 34, 2060-2073.
10. IPCC. 2007 Summary for policymakers. In Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, et al. (eds). Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, New York, NY.
11. Kellomaki, S. and Vaisanen, H. 1997 Modelling the dynamics of the boreal forest ecosystems for climate Kellomakichange studies in the boreal conditions. Ecol. Modelling 97 (1,2), 121-140.
12. Kellomaki, S., Peltola, H., Strandman, H. and Vaisanen, H. 2012 Changes in growth of Scots pine, Norway spruce and birch induced by climate change in boreal conditions as related to prevailing growing conditions. Manuscript in preparation.
13. Laasasenaho, J. 1982 Taper curve and volume equations for pine spruce and birch. Commun. Inst. For. Fenn. 108, 1-74.
14. Leskinen, P. and Kangas, J. 1998 Modelling and simulation of timber prices for forest planning calculations. Scand. J. For. Res. 13, 469-476.
15. Lohmander, P. 1995 Reservation price models in forest management: errors in the estimation of probability density function parameters and optimal adjustment of the bias free point estimates. In Management Systems for a Global Forest Economy with Global Resource Concerns. Society of American Foresters, CA, pp. 439-456.
16. Lohmander, P. 2007 Adaptive optimization of forest management in a stochastic world. In Handbook of Operations Research in Natural Resources. A. Weintraub, C. Romero, T. Bjorndal, R. Epstein and J. Miranda (eds). International Series in Operations Research and Management Science, Vol. 99. Springer Science + Business Media B.V., New York, pp. 525-544.
17. Lu, F. and Gong, P. 2003 Optimal stocking level and final harvest age with stochastic prices. J. For. Econ. 9, 119-136.
18. Miina, J. and Saksa, T. 2006 Predicting regeneration establishment in Norway spruce plantations using a multivariate multilevel model. New Forests. 32, 265-283.
19. Nelder, J.A. and Mead, R. 1965 A simplex method for function minimization. Comput. J. 7, 308-313
20. Palahi, M. and Pukkala, T. 2003 Optimising the management of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) stands in Spain based on individual-tree models. Ann. For. Sci. 60, 105-114.
21. Pasanen, K. 1998 Integrating variation in tree growth into forest planning. Silva Fenn. 32 (1), 11-25.
22. Penttinen, M.J. 2006 Impact of stochastic price and growth processes on optimal rotation age. Eur. J. For. Res. 125, 335-343.
23. Pukkala, T. 1998 Multiple risks in multi-objective forest planning: integration and importance. For. Ecol. Manage. 111, 265-284.
24. Pukkala, T. 2006 Puun hinta ja taloudellisesti optimaalinen hakkuun ajankohta. Metsätieteen aikakauskirja 1/2006, 33-48.
25. Pukkala, T. 2009 Population-based methods in the optimization of stand management. Silva Fenn. 43 (2), 261-274.
26. Pukkala, T. and Miina, J. 1997 A method for stochastic optimization of stand management. For. Ecol. Manage. 98, 189-203.
27. Pukkala, T., Miina, J., Kurttila, M. and Kolstrom, T. 1998 A spatial yield model for optimizing the thinning regime of mixed stands of Pinus sylvestris and Picea abies. Scand. J. For. Res. 13, 141-150.
28. Rollin, F., Buongiorno, J., Zhou, M. and Peyron, J.L. 2005 Management of mixed-species, uneven-aged forests in the French Jura: from stochastic growth and price models to decision tables. For. Sci. 51 (1), 64-75.
29. Valsta, L. 1992a An optimization model for Norway spruce management based on individual-tree growth models. Acta For. Fenn. 232, 20 pp.
30. Valsta, L. 1992b A scenario approach to stochastic anticipatory optimization in stand management. For. Sci. 38, 430-447.
31. Vettenranta, J. and Miina, J. 1999 Optimizing thinnings and rotation of Scots pine and Norway spruce mixtures. Silva Fenn. 33 (1), 73-84.