Climate change, fuel and fire behaviour in a eucalypt forest

Global Change Biology

Volumn 18, Issue 10, 2012, Pages 3212-3223

  Matthews, Stuart ^a,b   Sullivan, Andrew L ^a   Watson, Penny ^c   Williams, Richard J ^a  

^a CSIRO   (Australia)

^b UNIVERSITY OF SYDNEY   (Australia)

^c UNIVERSITY OF WOLLONGONG   (Australia)

Author keywords

Dry sclerophyl forest; Forest fire; Fuel hazard; Fuel moisture; Simulation

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE EFFECT; DRY FOREST; ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE; FIRE BEHAVIOR; FOREST FIRE; FUEL; MOISTURE CONTENT; RISK ASSESSMENT; VEGETATION STRUCTURE; WARMING;

AUSTRALIA; NEW SOUTH WALES; SYDNEY [NEW SOUTH WALES];

EID: 84865860560     PISSN: 13541013     EISSN: 13652486     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2012.02768.x     Document Type: Article

References (68)

1. Bachelet D, Neilson R, Hickler T et al. (2003) Simulating past and future dynamics of natural ecosystems in the United States. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 17, 1045.
2. Beer T, Williams A (1995) Estimating Australian forest fire danger under conditions of double carbon dioxide concentrations. Climatic Change, 29, 169-188.
3. Beer T, Gill A, Moore R (1988) Australian bushfire danger under changing climatic regimes. In: Greenhouse: Planning for Climatic Change (ed. Pearman G), pp. 421-427. CSIRO, Melbourne, Australia.
4. Birk EM (1979) Overstorey and understorey litter fall in a eucalypt forest: spatial and temporal variability. Australian Journal of Botany, 27, 145-156.
5. Bradstock RA (2010) A biogeographic model of fire regimes in Australia: current and future implications. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 19, 145-158.
6. Bridges RG (2005) Effects of logging and burning regimes on firest fuel in dry sclerophyll forests in south-eastern New South Wales. Initial results (1986-1993) from the Eden burning study area. Research paper 40, NSW Dept of Primary Industries
7. Buckley AJ (1992) Fire behaviour and fuel reduction burning: Bemm River wildfire, October 1988. Australian Forestry, 55, 135-147.
8. Burgan RE (1988) 1988 revisions to the 1978 National Fire-Danger Rating System. Research paper SE-273, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Southeastern Forest Experiment Station, Asheville, NC.
9. Burrows ND (1999) Fire behaviour in jarrah forest fuels: 2. Field experiments. CALM Science, 3, 57-84.
10. Cary GJ (2001) Importance of a changing climate for fire regimes in Australia. In: Flammable Australia: the fire regimes and biodiversity of a continent. (eds. Bradstock R.A., Williams J.E. and Gill M.A.), pp. 26-46. Cambridge University Press, UK.
11. Cheney NP, Gould JS, Catchpole WR (1998) Prediction of fire spread in grasslands. International Journal of Wildland Fire, 8, 1-13.
12. Clarke H, Smith P, Pitman A (2011) Regional signatures of future fire weather over eastern Australia from global climate models. International Journal of Wildland Fire, 20, 550-562.
13. Conroy B (1993) Fuel management strategies for the Sydney region. In: The burning question: fire management in NSW. (ed. Ross, J.), pp. 73-83. Dept of Community Education, University of NSW, Armidale, NSW.
14. Crockford RH, Richardson DP (1998) Litterfall, litter and associated chemistry in a dry sclerophyll eucalypt forest and a pine plantation in south-eastern Australia: 1. Litterfall and litter. Hydrological Processes, 12, 365-384.
15. CSIRO and Australian Bureau of Meteorology(2007) Climate change in Australia. Technical report, CSIRO and Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia.
16. Flannigan M, Stocks B, Turetsky M, Wotton M (2009a) Impacts of climate change on fire activity and fire management in the circumboreal forest. Global Change Biology, 15, 549-560.
17. Flannigan MD, Krawchuk MA, de Groot WJ, Wotton BM, Gowman LM (2009b) Implications of changing climate for global wildland fire. International Journal of Wildland Fire, 18, 483-507.
18. Fox BJ, Fox MD, Mckay GM (1979) Litter accumulation after fire in a eucalypt forest. Australian Journal of Botany, 27, 157-165.
19. Gill AM, King KJ, Moore AD (2010) Australian grassland fire danger using inputs from the GRAZPLAN grassland simulation model. International Journal of Wildland Fire, 19, 338-345.
20. Gould J, McCaw W, Cheney N, Ellis P, Knight I, Sullivan A (2007) Project Vesta - Fire in Dry Eucalypt Forest: Fuel structure, fuel dynamics and fire behaviour. Ensis-CSIRO, Canberra.
21. Gould JS, McCaw WL, Cheney NP (2011) Quantifying fine fuel dynamics and structure in dry eucalypt forest (Eucalyptus marginata) in Western Australia for fire management. Forest Ecology and Management, 262, 531-546.
22. Hart DM (1995) Litterfall and decomposition in the pilliga state forests, new south wales, australia. Australian Journal of Ecology, 20, 266-272.
23. Hasson AEA, Mills GA, Timbal B, Walsh K (2009) Assessing the impact of climate change on extreme fire weather events over southeastern australia. Climate Research, 39, 159-172.
24. Hennessy K, Lucas C, Nicholls N, Suppiah J, Bathols R, Rickets J (2005) Climate change impacts on fire-weather in south-east australia. Tech. rep., CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research and Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia.
25. Hoffmann WA, Schroeder W, Jackson RB (2002) Positive feedbacks of fire, climate, and vegetation and the conversion of tropical savanna. Geophysical Research Letters, 29, 2052.
26. Lamb RJ (1985) Litter fall and nutrient turnover in two eucalypt woodlands. Australian Journal of Botony, 33, 1-14.
27. Lenihan JM, Bachelet D, Neilson R, Drapek R (2008) Response of vegetation distribution, ecosystem productivity, and fire to climate change scenarios for California. Climatic Change, 87(Suppl.), 215-230.
28. Lucas C (2010) A high-quality historical humidity database for Australia. Tech. Rep. 24, Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Melbourne, Australia.
29. Lucas C, Hennessy K, Mills G, Bathols J (2007) Bushfire weather in southeast australia: Recent trends and projected climate change impacts. Tech. rep., Bushfire CRC and CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Melbourne, Australia.
30. Luke RH, McArthur AG (1978) Bushfires in Australia. Australian Government Publishing Service, Canberra.
31. Malanson GP, Westman WE (1991) Modeling interactive effects of climate change, air pollution, and fire on a California shrubland. Climatic Change, 18, 363-376.
32. Matthews S (2006) A process-based model of fine fuel moisture. International Journal of Wildland Fire, 15, 155-168.
33. Matthews S, McCaw WL, Neal J, Smith R (2007) Testing a process-based fine fuel moisture model in two forest types. Canadian Journal of Forest Research, 37, 23-35.
34. McArthur AG (1966) Weather and grassland fire behaviour. Leaflet 100, Forestry and Timber Bureau, Canberra, ACT.
35. McArthur AG (1967) Fire behaviour in eucalypt forests. Leaflet 107, Forestry and Timber Bureau, Canberra, ACT.
36. McCarthy GJ, Tolhurst KG, Chatto K (1999) Overall fuel hazard guide. Research Report 47, Department of Natural Resources and Environment, Melbourne, VIC.
37. McCaw WL (1986) Behaviour and short-term effects of two fires in regenerated karri (Eucalyptus diversicolor) forest. Technical Report 9, Department of Conservation and Land Management, Perth, WA.
38. McCaw WL, Gould JS, Cheney NP (2008) Existing fire behaviour models under-predict the rate of spread of summer fires in open jarrah (Eucalyptus marginata) forest. Australian Forestry, 71, 16-26.
39. McGregor JL, Dix M (2008) An updated description of the conformal-cubic atmospheric model. In: High Resolution Simulation of the Atmosphere and Ocean. (eds. Hamilton K. and Ohfuchi W.), pp. 51-76. Springer, New York, NY, USA.
40. McGregor JL, Nguyen KC (2009) Dynamical downscaling from climate change experiments. Final report of project 2.1.5. Technical report, South East Australian Climate Initiative, Melbourne, Australia.
41. Moorhead JL, Reynolds JF (1991) A general model of litter decomposition in the northern Chihuahuan Desert. Ecological Modelling, 56, 197-219.
42. Mouillot F, Rambal S, Joffre R (2002) Simulating climate change impacts on fire frequency and vegetation dynamics in a Mediterranean-type ecosystem. Global Change Biology, 8, 423-437.
43. Nakicenovic N, Alcamo J, Davis G, et al. (2000) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios: A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K..
44. Nelson RM (2000) Prediction of diurnal change in 10-h fuel stick moisture content. Canadian Journal of Forest Research, 30, 1071-1087.
45. Nicholls N (2006) Detecting and attributing Australian climate change: a review. Australian Meteorological Magazine, 55, 199-211.
46. Olson JS (1963) Energy storage and the balance of producers and decomposers in ecological systems. Ecology, 44, 322-331.
47. Paul KI, Polglase PJ (2004) Prediction of decomposition of litter under eucalypts and pines using the FullCAM model. Forest Ecology and Management, 191, 73-92.
48. Paul KI, Polglase PJ, O'Connell AM, Carlyle JC, Smethurst PJ, Khanna PK, Worledge D (2003) Soil water under forests (SWUF): a model of water flow and soil water content under a range of forest types. Forest Ecology and Management, 18, 195-211.
49. Penman TD, York A (2010) Climate and recent fire history affect fuel loads in Eucalyptus forests: implications for fire management in a changing climate. Forest Ecology and Management, 260, 1791-1797.
50. Pitman AJ, Narisma GT, McAneney J (2007) The impact of climate change on the risk of forest and grassland fires in australia. Climatic Change, 84, 383-401.
51. Plucinski MP, Anderson WR (2003) Laboratory determination of factors influencing successful point ignition in the litter layer of shrubland vegetation. International Journal of Wildland Fire, 17, 628-637.
52. Putuhena WM, Cordery I (1996) Estimation of interception capacity of the forest floor. Journal of Hydrology, 180, 283-299.
53. R Development Core Team (2009) R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria.
54. Raison RJ, Woods PV, Khanna PK (1986) Decomposition and accumulation of litter after fire in sub-alpine eucalypt forests. Australian Journal of Ecology, 11, 9-19.
55. Rawson RP, Billing PR, Duncan SF (1983) The 1982-83 forest fires in Victoria. Australian Forestry, 46, 163-172.
56. Rogers RW, Westman WE (1977) Seasonal nutrient dynamics of litter in a subtropical eucalypt forest, North Stradbroke Island. Australian Journal of Botony, 25, 47-58.
57. Sato Y, Kumagai T, Kume A, Otsuki K, Ogawa S (2004) Experimental analysis of moisture dynamics of litter layers - the effects of rainfall conditions and leaf shapes. Hydrological Processes, 18, 3007-3018.
58. Schumacher S, Bugmann H (2006) The relative importance of climatic effects, wildfires and management for future forest landscape dynamics in the Swiss Alps. Global Change Biology, 12, 1435-1450.
59. Specht RL, Specht A (1999) Australian Plant Communities: Dynamics of Structure, Growth and Biodiversity. Oxford University Press, South Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
60. Sullivan AL (2009a) Wildland surface fire spread modelling, 1990-2007. 1: physical and quasi-physical models. International Journal of Wildland Fire, 18, 349-368.
61. Sullivan AL (2009b) Wildland surface fire spread modelling, 1990-2007. 2: empirical and quasi-empirical models. International Journal of Wildland Fire, 18, 369-386.
62. Sullivan AL (2010) Grassland fire management in future climate. Advances in Agronomy, 106, 173-208.
63. Thatcher M, McGregor JL (2009) Using a scale-selective filter for dynamical downscaling with the conformal cubic atmospheric model. Monthly Weather Review, 137, 1742-1752.
64. van Wagner CE (1987) Development and structure of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System. Forestry Technical Report 35, Petawawa National Forestry Institute, Chalk River, Ontario, Canada.
65. Watterson I, McGregor J, Nguyen K (2009) Changes in extreme temperatures of Australasian summer simulated by CCAM under global warming, and the roles of winds and land-sea contrasts. Australian Meteorological Magazine, 57, 195-212.
66. Williams AAJ, Karoly DJ, Tapper N (2001) The sensitivity of Australian fire danger to climate change. Climatic Change, 49, 171-191.
67. Williams RJ, Bradstock RA, Cary GJ et al. (2009) Interactions between climate change, fire regimes and biodiversity in Australia: a preliminary assessment. Technical report, CSIRO, Canberra, ACT.
68. Wittich K (2005) A single-layer litter-moisture model for estimating forest-fire danger. Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 14, 157-164.