A statistical downscaling model for forecasting summer rainfall in China from DEMETER hindcast datasets

Weather and Forecasting

Volumn 27, Issue 3, 2012, Pages 608-628

  Chen, Huopo ^a   Sun, Jianqi ^a   Wang, Huijun ^a  

^a INSTITUTE OF ATMOSPHERIC PHYSICS   (China)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CORRELATION COEFFICIENT; COUPLED MODELS; CROSS VALIDATION; DATA SETS; DEMETER; DOWN-SCALING; DYNAMICAL MODEL; HINDCASTS; LARGE-SCALE CIRCULATION; LEAVE-ONE-OUT; MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE; MULTI-SITE; OPERATIONAL SKILLS; OPTIMAL PREDICTOR; RAINFALL MEASUREMENTS; ROBUST SIGNALS; SKILL SCORE; STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING; SUMMER RAINFALL; TEMPORAL CORRELATIONS;

RAIN; STATISTICAL METHODS;

FORECASTING;

DATA SET; DEMETER; DOWNSCALING; ERROR ANALYSIS; HINDCASTING; RAINFALL; SATELLITE DATA; STATISTICAL ANALYSIS; TEMPORAL ANALYSIS; WEATHER FORECASTING;

CHINA;

EID: 84865803618     PISSN: 08828156     EISSN: 15200434     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/WAF-D-11-00079.1     Document Type: Article

References (35)

1. Benestad, R. E., 2005: Climate change scenarios for northern Europe from multi-model IPCC AR4 climate simulations. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L17704, doi:10.1029/2005GL023401.
2. Benestad, R. E., 2010: Downscaling precipitation extremes: Correction of analog models through PDF predictions. Theor. Appl. Climatol.,100, 1-21, doi:10.1007/s00704-009-0158-1.
3. Benestad, R. E., and J. Haugen, 2007: On complex extremes: Flood hazards and combined high spring-time precipitation and temperature in Norway. Climatic Change, 85, 381-406, doi:10.1007/s10584-007-9263-2.
4. Chen, H. P., and J. Q. Sun, 2009: How the "best" models project the future precipitation change in China. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 26,773-782, doi:10.1037/s00376-009-8211-7.
5. Chen, H. P., J. Q. Sun, X. L. Chen, and W. Zhou, 2010: CGCM projections of heavy rainfall events in China. Int. J. Climatol., 32, 441-450,doi:10.1002/joc.2278.
6. Fan, K., 2010: A prediction model for Atlantic named storm frequency using a year-by-year increment approach. Wea. Forecasting,25, 1842-1851.
7. Fan, K.,and H. J. Wang, 2009:Anew approach to forecasting typhoon frequency over the western North Pacific. Wea. Forecasting,24, 974-986.
8. Fan, K., H. J. Wang, and Y. J. Choi, 2007: A physically based statistical forecast model for the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley summer rainfall. Chin. Sci. Bull., 53, 602-609.
9. Fan, K., M. J. Lin, and Y. Z. Gao, 2009: Forecasting the summer rainfall in North China using the year-to-year increment approach. Sci. China, 52D, 532-539.
10. Fowler, H. J., S. Blenkinsop, and C. Tebaldi, 2007: Linking climate change modeling to impacts studies: Recent advances in downscaling techniques for hydrological modeling. Int. J. Climatol., 27, 1547-1578, doi:10.1002/joc.1556.
11. Gao, X., Z. C. Zhao, and F. Giorgi, 2002: Changes of extreme events in regional climate simulations over East Asia. Adv.Atmos. Sci., 19, 927-942.
12. Gao, X., Z. C. Zhao,F. Giorgi, Y. Shi, R. Song, F. Giorgi, Y. Wang, and D. Zhang, 2008: Reduction of future monsoon precipitation over China: Comparison between a high resolution RCM simulation and the driving GCM. Meteor. Atmos. Phys., 100, 73-86.
13. Giorgi, F., and Coauthors, 2001: Emerging patterns of simulated regional climatic changes for the 21st century due to anthropogenic forcings. Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 3317-3320.
14. He, J. H., B. Zhou, M. Wen, and F. Li, 2001: Vertical circulation structure, interannual variation features and variation mechanism of western Pacific subtropical high. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 18, 497-510.
15. Huth,R., 1999: Statistical downscaling in central Europe: Evaluation of methods and potential predictors. Climate Res., 13, 91-101.
16. Kang, I. S., and Coauthors, 2002: Intercomparison of the climatological variations of Asian summer monsoon precipitation simulated by 10 GCMs. Climate Dyn., 19, 383-395.
17. Lang, X. M., and H. J. Wang, 2010: Improving extra seasonal summer rainfall prediction by merging information from GCMs and observations. Wea. Forecasting, 25, 1263-1274.
18. Lin, M. J., 2010: The background analyses of typhoon genesis in northwestern Pacific and the hindcasted results based on DEMETER data. Ph.D. dissertation, Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 100 pp.
19. Lin, Z. D., and R. Y. Lu, 2005: Interannual meridional displacement of the East Asian upper-tropospheric jet stream in summer. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 22, 199-211.
20. Mehrotra, R., and A. Sharma, 2010: Development and application of a multisite rainfall stochastic downscaling framework for climate change impact assessment. Water Resour. Res., 46,W07526, doi:10.1029/2009WR008423.
21. Palmer, T. N., and Coauthors, 2004: Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble System for Seasonal to Interannual Prediction (DEMETER). Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 85, 853-872.
22. Schoof, J. T., S. C. Pryor, and J. Surprenant, 2010: Development of daily precipitation projections for the United States based on probabilistic downscaling. J. Geophys. Res., 115, D13106,doi:10.1029/2009JD013030.
23. Sun, J. Q., and B. J. Ahn, 2011: A GCM-based forecasting model for the landfall of tropical cyclones in China. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 28, 1049-1055, doi:10.1007/s00376-011-0122-8.
24. Sun, J. Q.,B. J. Ahn, and H. P. Chen, 2011: Predictability of western North Pacific typhoon activity and its factors using DEMETER coupled models. Chin. Sci. Bull., 56, 3474-3479, doi:10.1007/s11434-011-4640-7.
25. Sun, J. Q.,B. J. Ahn,H. P. Chen H., J.Wang, W. Yuan, and H. P. Chen, 2010: Spatial-temporal feature of intense snowfall events in China. J. Geophys. Res.,115, D16110, doi:10.1029/2009JD013541.
26. Tao, S. Y., and L. X. Chen, 1987:Areview of recent research on the East Asian summer monsoon in China.
27. Monsoon Meteorology,C. P. Chang and T. N. Krishnamurti, Eds., Oxford University Press, 60-92.
28. von Storch, H., E. Zorita, and U. Cubasch, 1993: Downscaling of global climate change estimates to regional scales: An application to Iberian rainfall in wintertime. J. Climate, 6, 1161-1171.
29. Wang, B., I. S. Kang, and J. Y. Lee, 2004: Ensemble simulation of Asian-Australian monsoon variability by 11 AGCMs. J. Climate, 17, 803-818.
30. Wang, H. J., and K. Fan, 2009: A new scheme for improving the seasonal prediction of summer precipitation anomalies. Wea.Forecasting, 24, 548-554.
31. Wang, H. J.,K. Fan, G. Q. Zhou, and Y. Zhao, 2000: An effective method for correcting the seasonal-interannual prediction of summer climate anomaly. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 17, 234-240.
32. Wang, H. J.,K. Fan, G. Q. Zhou,Y. Zhao, Y. Zhang, and X. M. Lang, 2010: On the predictand of shortterm climate prediction. Climatic Environ. Res., 15, 225-228.
33. Wei, F. Y., and J. Y. Huang, 2010: A study of predictability for summer precipitation on East China using downscaling techniques.J. Trop. Meteor., 26, 483-488.
34. Wilby, R. L., and T. M. L. Wigley, 1997: Downscaling general circulation model output: A review of methods and limitations. Prog. Phys. Geogr., 21, 530-548.
35. Zhu, C. W., C. K. Park, W. S. Lee, and W. T. Yun, 2008: Statistical downscaling for multi-model ensemble prediction of summer monsoon rainfall in the Asia-Pacific region using geopotential height field. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 25, 867-884.