A Test of Case Linkage Principles with Solved and Unsolved Serial Rapes

Journal of Police and Criminal Psychology

Volumn 27, Issue 1, 2012, Pages 85-98

  Woodhams, Jessica ^a   Labuschagne, Gerard ^b,c  

^a UNIVERSITY OF BIRMINGHAM   (United Kingdom)

^b SOUTH AFRICAN POLICE SERVICE   (South Africa)

^c UNIVERSITY OF JOHANNESBURG   (South Africa)

Author keywords

Behavioral linking; Comparative case analysis; Linkage analysis; Sexual assault; Sexual offense

Indexed keywords

EID: 84865658948     PISSN: 08820783     EISSN: 19366469     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s11896-011-9091-1     Document Type: Article

References (66)

1. Alison LJ, Snook B, Stein KL (2001) Unobtrusive measurement: using police information for forensic research. Qual Res 1: 241-254. doi: 10. 1177/146879410100100208.
2. Bateman AL, Salfati CG (2007) An examination of behavioral consistency using individual behaviors or groups of behaviors in serial homicide. Behav Sci Law 25: 527-544. doi: 10. 1002/bsl. 742.
3. Beauregard E, Rossmo K, Proulx J (2007) A descriptive model of the hunting process of serial sex offenders: a rational choice perspective. Journal of Family Violence 22: 449-463. doi: 10. 1007/s10896-007-9101-3.
4. Bennell C (2002) Behavioural consistency and discrimination in serial burglary. Unpublished doctoral dissertation, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK.
5. Bennell C (2005) Improving police decision making: general principles and practical applications of receiver operating characteristic analysis. Appl Cogn Psychol 19: 1157-1175. doi: 10. 1002/acp. 1152.
6. Bennell C, Canter D (2002) Linking commercial burglaries by modus operandi: tests using regression and ROC analysis. Sci Justice 42: 1-12. doi: 10. 1016/S1355-0306(02)71820-0.
7. Bennell C, Jones NJ (2005) Between a ROC and a hard place: a method for linking serial burglaries by modus operandi. Journal of Investigative Psychology and Offender Profiling 2: 23-41. doi: 10. 1002/jip. 21.
8. Bennell C, Jones NJ, Melnyk T (2009) Addressing problems with traditional crime linking methods using receiver operating characteristic analysis. Leg Criminol Psychol 14: 293-310. doi: 10. 1348/135532508X349336.
9. Bennell C, Gauthier D, Gauthier D, Melnyk T, Musolino E (2010) The impact of data degradation and sample size on the performance of two similarity coefficients used in behavioral linkage analysis. Forensic Sci Int 199: 85-92. doi: 10. 1016/j. forsciint. 2010. 03. 017.
10. Bennell C, Woodhams J, Beauregard E (2011) Investigating individual differences in the expression of behavioural consistency in crime series using ICT analyses. Manuscript in preparation.
11. Bennett P (2006) Abnormal and clinical psychology: an introductory textbook, 2nd edn. Open University Press, Maidenhead.
12. Canter D (1995) Psychology of offender profiling. In: Bull R, Carson D (eds) Handbook of psychology in legal contexts. Wiley, Chichester, pp 343-355.
13. Canter D, Bennell C, Alison LJ, Reddy S (2003) Differentiating sex offences: a behaviorally based thematic classification of stranger rapes. Behav Sci Law 21: 157-174. doi: 10. 1002/bsl. 526.
14. Canter D, Heritage R (1990) A multivariate model of sexual offences behavior: developments in offender profiling. Journal of Forensic Psychiatry 1: 185-212. doi: 10. 1080/09585189008408469.
15. Canter D, Heritage R, Wilson M, Davies A, Kirby S, Holden R et al (1991) A facet approach to offender profiling: vol. 1. University of Surrey, Psychology Department, Guilford, England.
16. Cicchetti DV (1994) Guidelines, criteria, and rules of thumb for evaluating standardized assessment instruments in psychology. Psychol Assess 6: 284-290. doi: 10. 1037//1040-3590. 6. 4. 284.
17. Cohen J (1988) Statistical power analysis for the behavioral sciences, 2nd edn. Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, Hillsdale.
18. Criminal Law (Sexual Offences and Related Matters) Amendment Act No. 32 of 2007. Republic of South Africa.
19. Davies A (1992) Rapist's behavior: a three-aspect model as a basis for analysis and the identification of serial crime. Forensic Sci Int 55: 173-194. doi: 10. 1016/0379-0738(92)90122-D.
20. De Wet J (2008) An exploratory analysis of serial rape in South Africa (Unpublished doctoral dissertation). University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa.
21. Federal Bureau of Investigation (2008) Serial murder: multi-disciplinary perspectives for investigators. US Department of Justice, Washington.
22. Gee D, Belofastov A (2007) Profiling sexual fantasy: Fantasy in sexual offending and the implications for criminal profiling. In: Kocsis RN (ed) Criminal profiling: international theory, research and practice. Humana Press, Totowa, pp 49-71.
23. Goodwill A, Alison L (2006) The development of a filter model for prioritising suspects in burglary offences. Psychology, Crime and Law 12: 395-416. doi: 10. 1080/10683160500056945.
24. Green EJ, Booth CE, Biderman MD (1976) Cluster analysis of burglary M/O's. Journal of Police Science and Administration 4: 382-388.
25. Greene JO (1989) The stability of nonverbal behavior: an action-production approach to problems of cross-situational consistency and discriminativeness. J Lang Soc Psychol 8: 193-220. doi: 10. 1177/0261927X8983003.
26. Grubin D, Kelly P, Brunsdon C (2001) Linking serious sexual assaults through behavior. Home Office Research Study 215. Home Office, London.
27. Harbort S, Mokros A (2001) Serial murderers in Germany from 1945 to 1995: a descriptive study. Homicide Studies 5: 311-334. doi: 10. 1177/1088767901005004005.
28. Hazelwood RR, Warren JI (2000) The sexually violent offender: impulsive or ritualistic? Aggression and Violent Behavior 5: 267-279. doi: 10. 1016/S1359-1789(99)00002-6.
29. Hazelwood RR, Warren JI (2004) Linkage analysis: modus operandi, ritual, and signature in serial sexual crime. Aggression and Violent Behavior 9: 307-318. doi: 10. 1016/S1359-1789(02)00106-4.
30. Herrmann H (1998) Anwendung von kreuzvalidierung und bootstrap auf die logistische regression und diskriminanzanalyse. Unpublished report.
31. Hettema J, van Bakel AP (1997) Cross-situational consistency in a mastery condition. J Res Personal 31: 222-239. doi: 10. 1006/jrpe. 1997. 2181.
32. Home Office (2009) Crime in England and Wales 2008/9. Home Office, London.
33. Hosmer DW, Lemeshow S (2000) Applied logistic regression, 2nd edn. Wiley, New York. doi: 10. 1002/0471722146.
34. Jewkes R, Abrahams N (2002) The epidemiology of rape and sexual coercion in South Africa: an overview. Soc Sci Med 55: 1231-1244. doi: 10. 1016/S0277-9536(01)00242-8.
35. Knight RA, Warren JI, Reboussin R, Soley BJ (1998) Predicting rapist type from crime-scene variables. Criminal Justice and Behavior 25: 46-80. doi: 10. 1177/0093854898025001004.
36. Labuschagne GN (2006) The use of linkage analysis as evidence in the conviction of the Newcastle serial murderer, South Africa. Journal of Investigative Psychology and Offender Profiling 3: 183-191. doi: 10. 1002/jip. 51.
37. Labuschagne GN (2010) The use of linkage analysis as an investigative tool and evidential material in serial offenses. In: Borgeson K, Kuehnle K (eds) Serial offenders: theory and practice. Jones & Bartlett Learning, Sudbury, pp 187-215.
38. Landis JR, Koch GG (1977) The measurement of observer agreement for categorical data. Biometrics 33: 159-174. doi: 10. 2307/2529310.
39. Leclerc B, Tremblay P (2007) Strategic behaviour in adolescent sex offences against children: linking modus operandi to sexual behaviours. Sexual Abuse: A Journal of Research and Treatment 19: 23-41. doi: 10. 1177/107906320701900104.
40. Lundrigan S, Czarnomski S, Wilson M (2010) Spatial and environmental consistency in serial sexual assault. Journal of Investigative Psychology and Offender Profiling 7: 15-30. doi: 10. 1002/jip. 100.
41. Lussier P, Leclerc B, Cale J, Proulx J (2007) Developmental pathways of deviance in sexual aggressors. Crim Justice Behav 34: 1141-1462. doi: 10. 1177/0093854807306350.
42. Markson L, Woodhams J, Bond J (2010) Linking serial residential burglary: comparing the utility of modus operandi behaviors, geographical proximity and temporal proximity. J Invest Psychol Offender Profiling 7: 91-107. doi: 10. 1002/jip. 120.
43. Mischel W (1999) Personality coherence and dispositions in a cognitive-affective personality system (CAPS) approach. In: Cervone D, Shoda Y (eds) The coherence of personality: social-cognitive bases of consistency, variability and organisation. Guilford Press, London, pp 37-60.
44. Mokros A, Alison LJ (2002) Is offender profiling possible? Testing the predicted homology of crime scene actions and background characteristics in a sample of rapists. Leg Criminol Psychol 7: 25-43. doi: 10. 1348/135532502168360.
45. Monahan J, Steadman H, Silver E, Appelbaum P, Robbins P, Mulvey E, Roth L, Grisso T, Banks S (2001) Rethinking risk assessment: the MacArthur study of mental disorder and violence. Oxford University Press, New York.
46. Park J, Schlesinger LB, Pinizzotto AJ, Davis EF (2008) Serial and single-victim rapists: differences in crime-scene violence, interpersonal involvement and criminal sophistication. Behav Sci Law 26: 227-237. doi: 10. 1002/bsl. 804.
47. Pervin LA (2002) Current controversies and issues in personality, 3rd edn. Wiley, New York.
48. Porter LE, Alison LJ (2004) Behavioral coherence in violent group activity: an interpersonal model of sexually violent gang behavior. Aggress Behav 30: 449-468. doi: 10. 1002/ab. 20047.
49. Salfati CG, Bateman AL (2005) Serial homicide: an investigation of behavioral consistency. J Invest Psychol Offender Profiling 2: 121-144. doi: 10. 1002/jip. 27.
50. Salfati CG, Taylor P (2006) Differentiating sexual violence: a comparison of sexual homicide and rape. Psychol Crime Law 12: 107-125. doi: 10. 1080/10683160500036871.
51. Santtila P, Fritzon K, Tamelander AL (2004) Linking arson incidents on the basis of crime scene behavior. J Police Crim Psychol 19: 1-16. doi: 10. 1007/BF02802570.
52. Santtila P, Junkkila J, Sandnabba NK (2005) Behavioral linking of stranger rapes. J Invest Psychol Offender Profiling 2: 87-103. doi: 10. 1002/jip. 26.
53. Santilla P, Pakkanen T, Zappalà A, Bosco D, Valkama M, Mokros A (2008) Behavioral crime linking in serial homicide. Psychol Crime and Law 14: 245-265. doi: 10. 1080/10683160701739679.
54. Sorochinski M, Salfati CG (2010) The consistency of inconsistency in serial homicide: patterns of behavioral change across series. J Invest Psychol Offender Profiling 7: 109-136. doi: 10. 1002/jip. 118.
55. Statistics South Africa (2000) Quantitative research findings on rape in South Africa. Statistics South Africa, Pretoria.
56. Swets JA (1988) Measuring the accuracy of diagnostic systems. Science 240: 1285-1293. doi: 10. 1126/science. 3287615.
57. Tonkin M, Grant T, Bond J (2008) To link or not to link: a test of the case linkage principles using serial car theft data. J Invest Psychol Offender Profiling 5: 59-77. doi: 10. 1002/jip. 74.
58. Vetten L, Haffeejee S (2005) Gang rape: a study in inner-city Johannesburg. South Africa Crime Quarterly 12: 31-36.
59. Woodhams J (2008) Juvenile sex offending: an investigative perspective (Unpublished doctoral dissertation). University of Leicester, Leicester, UK.
60. Woodhams J, Bull R, Hollin CR (2007a) Case linkage: Identifying crimes committed by the same offender. In: Kocsis RN (ed) Criminal profiling: International theory, research and practice. The Humana Press Inc, Totowa, pp 117-133.
61. Woodhams J, Grant T, Price A (2007b) From marine ecology to crime analysis: improving the detection of serial sexual offences using a taxonomic similarity measure. J Invest Psychol Offender Profiling 4: 17-27. doi: 10. 1002/jip. 55.
62. Woodhams J, Hollin CR, Bull R (2007c) The psychology of linking crimes: a review of the evidence. Leg Criminol Psychol 12: 233-249. doi: 10. 1348/135532506X118631.
63. Woodhams J, Hollin CR, Bull R (2008) Incorporating context in linking crimes: an exploratory study of situational similarity and if-then contingencies. J Invest Psychol Offender Profiling 5: 1-23. doi: 10. 1002/jip. 75.
64. Woodhams J, Toye K (2007) An empirical test of the assumptions of case linkage and offender profiling with serial commercial robberies. Psychol, Public Policy Law 13: 59-85. doi: 10. 1037/1076-8971. 13. 1. 59.
65. Yokota K, Canter D (2004) Burglars' specialisation: development of a thematic approach in investigative psychology. Behaviormetrika 31: 153-167. doi: 10. 2333/bhmk. 31. 153.
66. Yokota K, Fujita G, Watanabe K, Yoshimoto K, Wachi T (2007) Application of the behavioral investigative support system for profiling perpetrators of serial sexual assaults. Behav Sci Law 25: 841-856. doi: 10. 1002/bsl. 79.