Projected changes in water availability in the United Kingdom

Water Resources Research

Volumn 48, Issue 8, 2012, Pages

  Sanderson, Michael G ^a   Wiltshire, Andrew J ^a   Betts, Richard A ^a  

^a MET OFFICE   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

DETECTION TIME; EASTERN AREA; ENGLAND; REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELS; SEASONAL MEAN; SEASONALITY; SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS; SUBSURFACE RUN-OFF; UNITED KINGDOM; WATER AVAILABILITY;

RUNOFF; WATER RESOURCES;

CLIMATE CHANGE;

ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE MODELING; CLIMATE PREDICTION; DETECTION METHOD; HYDROLOGICAL RESPONSE; RAINFALL; RUNOFF; SEASONALITY; TWENTY FIRST CENTURY; WATER AVAILABILITY; WATER RESOURCE;

UNITED KINGDOM;

EID: 84865505965     PISSN: 00431397     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1029/2012WR011881     Document Type: Article

References (29)

1. Arnell, N. W. (2004), Climate change impacts on river flows in Britain: The UKCIP02 scenarios, J. Chart. Inst. Water Environ. Manage., 18, 112-117, doi:10.1111/j.1747-6593.2004.tb00507.x.
2. Betts, R. A., et al. (2007), Projected increase in continental runoff due to plant responses to increasing carbon dioxide, Nature, 448, 1037-1041, doi:10.1038/nature06045. (Pubitemid 47345580)
3. Christensen, J. H., et al. (2007), Regional climate predictions, in Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by S. Solomon et al., pp. 847-940, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, U. K.
4. Clark, D. B., and N. Gedney (2008), Representing the effects of subgrid variability of soil moisture on runoff generation in a land surface model, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D10111, doi:10.1029/2007JD008940.
5. Dai, A., T. Qian, K. E. Trenberth, and J. D. Milliman (2009), Changes in continental freshwater discharge from 1948 to 2004, J. Clim., 22, 2773-2792, doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2592.1.
6. Environment Agency (2008), Climate change and river flows in the 2050s, Sci. Summary SC070079/SS1, Rotherham, U. K.
7. European Commission (2008), Climate Change: Addressing Floods, Droughts and Changing Aquatic Ecosystems, Water Note 10, DG Environ., Brussels, Belgium.
8. Falloon, P., R. Betts, A. Wiltshire, R. Dankers, C. Mathison, D. McNeall, P. Bates, and M. Trigg (2011), Validation of river flows in HadGEM1 and HadCM3 with the TRIP river flow model, J. Hydrometeorol., 12, 1157-1180, doi:10.1175/2011JHM1388.1.
9. Hall, J. W., G. Watts, M. Keil, L. de Vial, R. Street, K. Conlan, P. E. O'Connell, K. J. Beven, and C. G. Kilsby (2011), Towards risk-based water resources planning in England and Wales under a changing climate, Water Environ. J., 25, pp. 118-129, doi:10.1111/j. 1747-6593.2011.00271.x.
10. Hawkins, E., and R. Sutton (2011), The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of regional precipitation change, Clim. Dyn., 37, 407-418, doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0810-6.
11. Hulme, M., et al. (2002), Climate Change Scenarios for the United Kingdom: The UKCIP02 Scientific Report, Tyndall Cent. for Clim. Change Res., Sch. of Environ. Sci., Univ. of East Anglia, Norwich, U. K.
12. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2007), Summary for policymakers, in Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by S. Solomon et al., pp. 1-18, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, U. K.
13. Jenkins, G. J., M. C. Perry, and M. J. Prior (2008), The Climate of the United Kingdom and Recent Trends, Met Office Hadley Cent., Exeter, U. K.
14. Jones, R. G., J. M. Murphy, M. Noguer, and A. B. Keen (1997), Simulation of climate change over Europe using a nested regional-climate model. II: Comparison of driving and regional model responses to a doubling of carbon dioxide concentration, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc, 123, 265-292.
15. Kendon, E. J., D. P. Rowell, and R. G. Jones (2010), Mechanisms and reliability of future projected changes in daily precipitation, Clim. Dyn., 35, 489-509, doi:10.1007/s00382-009-0639-z.
16. Lehner, B., K. Verdin, and A. Jarvis (2008), New global hydrography derived from space borne elevation data, Eos Trans. AGU, 89, 93-94, doi:10.1029/2008EO100001.
17. Manning, L. J., J. W. Hall, H. J. Fowler, C. G. Kilsby, and C. Tebaldi (2009), Using probabilistic climate change information from a multimodel ensemble for water resources assessment, Water Resour. Res., 45, W11411, doi:10.1029/2007WR006674.
18. Milly, P. C. D., J. Betancourt, M. Falkenmark, R. M. Hirsch, Z. W. Kundzewicz, D. P. Lettenmaier, and R. J. Stouffer (2008), Climate change-Stationarity is dead: Whither water management?, Science, 319, 573-574, doi:10.1126/science.1151915. (Pubitemid 351197047)
19. Murphy, J. M., D. M. H. Sexton, D. N. Barnett, G. S. Jones, M. J. Webb, M. Collins, and D. A. Stainforth (2004), Quantification of modelling uncertainties in a large ensemble of climate change simulations, Nature, 430, 768-772, doi:10.1038/nature02771. (Pubitemid 39071344)
20. Murphy, J. M., B. B. B. Booth, M. Collins, G. R. Harris, D. M. H. Sexton, and M. J. Webb (2007), A methodology for probabilistic predictions of regional climate change from perturbed physics ensembles, Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Ser. A, 365, 1993-2028, doi:10.1098/rsta.2007.2077.
21. Murphy, J. M., et al. (2009), UK Climate Projections Science Report: Climate Change Projections, Met Office Hadley Cent., Exeter, U. K.
22. Nakienovi, N., and R. Swart (2000), Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, U. K. [Available at http://www.ipcc. ch.]
23. Nohara, D., A. Kitoh, M. Hosaka, and T. Oki (2006), Impact of climate change on river discharge projected by multimodel ensemble, J. Hydrometeorol, 7, 1076-1089, doi:10.1175/JHM531.1. (Pubitemid 44734315)
24. OFWAT (2008), Preparing for the Future: OFWAT's Climate Change Policy Statement, Birmingham, U. K.
25. Perry, M. C, and D. M. Hollis (2005), The generation of monthly gridded datasets for a range of climatic variables over the UK, Int. J. Climatol, 25, 1041-1054, pp. 1041-1054, doi:10.1002/joc.1161. (Pubitemid 40974590)
26. Perry, M., D. Hollis, and M. Elms (2009), The generation of daily gridded datasets of temperature and rainfall for the UK, Clim. Memo. 24, Natl. Clim. and Inf. Cent., Met Office, Exeter, U. K.
27. Snedecor, G. W., and W. G. Cochran (1967), Statistical Methods, 6th ed., Iowa State Univ. Press, Ames.
28. von Christierson, B., J.-P. Vidal, and S. D. Wade (2011), Using UKCP09 probabilistic climate information for UK water resource planning, J. Hydrol, 424-425, 48-67, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.12.020.
29. Wilby, R. (2006), When and where might climate change be detectable in UK river flows?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L19407, doi:10.1029/2006GL027552. (Pubitemid 46535066)