Heavy precipitation events in the Mediterranean: Sensitivity to cloud physics parameterisation uncertainties

Natural Hazards and Earth System Science

Volumn 12, Issue 8, 2012, Pages 2671-2688

  Fresnay, S ^a   Hally, A ^a,b   Garnaud, C ^a   Richard, E ^a   Lambert, D ^a  

^a UNIVERSITÉ DE TOULOUSE   (France)

^b UNIVERSITÉ DU QUÉBEC À MONTRÉAL   (Canada)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERIC CONVECTION; CLOUD MICROPHYSICS; ENSEMBLE FORECASTING; MESOSCALE METEOROLOGY; PARAMETERIZATION; PRECIPITATION (CLIMATOLOGY); PRECIPITATION INTENSITY; RAINFALL; TROUGH; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

FRANCE; MEDITERRANEAN REGION; RHONE VALLEY;

EID: 84865459286     PISSN: 15618633     EISSN: 16849981     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.5194/nhess-12-2671-2012     Document Type: Article

References (42)

1. Ardilouze, C.: Modélisation é très haute résolution des pluies intenses méditerranéennes, Master's thesis, Université de Toulouse, 2009.
2. Bechtold, P., Bazile, E., Guichard, F., Mascart, P., Richard, E.: A mass flux convection scheme for regional and global models, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 127, 869-886, 2001. (Pubitemid 32403727)
3. Buizza, R., Hollingsworth, A., Lalaurette, F., and Ghelli, A.: Probabilistic predictions of precipitation using the ECMWF ensemble prediction system, Weather Forecast., 14, 168-189, 1999a. (Pubitemid 29414095)
4. Buizza, R., Miller, M., and Palmer, T. N.: Stochastic representation of model uncertainties in the ECMWF ensemble prediction system, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 125, 2887-2908, 1999b. (Pubitemid 30044976)
5. Clark, A., Kain, J. S., Stensrud, D. J., Xue, M., Kong, F., Coniglio, M., Thomas, K., Wang, Y., Brewter, K., Gao, J., Wang, X., Weiss, S., and Du, J.: Probabilistic precipitation forecast skill as a function of ensemble size and spatial scale in a convection-allowing ensemble, Mon. Weather Rev., 139, 1410-1418, 2011.
6. Colle, B. A., Westrick, K. J., and Mass, C. F.: Evaluation of MM5 and Eta-10 precipitation forecasts over the Pacific Northwest during the cool season, Weather Forecast., 14, 137-154, 1999. (Pubitemid 29414093)
7. Cuxart, J., Bougeault, P., and Redelsperger, J. L.: A turbulence scheme allowing for mesoscale and large-eddy simulations, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 126, 1-30, 2000. (Pubitemid 30178324)
8. Ducrocq, V., Nuissier, O., Ricard, D., Lebaupin, C., and Thouvenin, T.: A numerical study of three catastrophic precipitating events over southern France, II: Mesoscale triggering and stationarity factors, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 34, 131-145, 2008. (Pubitemid 351512718)
9. Fiori, E., Parodi, A., and Siccardi, F.: Uncertainty in prediction of deep moist convective processes: Turbulence parameterizations, microphysics and grid-scale effects, Atmos. Res., 100, 447-456, 2011.
10. Franklin, C. N.: A warm rain microphysics parameterization that includes the effect of turbulence, J. Atmos. Sci., 65, 1795-1816, 2008. (Pubitemid 351888672)
11. Fritsch, J. M. and Carbone, R. E.: Improving quantitative precipitation forecasts in the warm season: A USWRP Research and Development Strategy, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 85, 955-965, 2004.
12. Garnaud, C.: Sources d'incertitudes dans le modèle Meso-NH: le schéma microphysique, Master's thesis, Université de Toulouse, 2009.
13. Gilmore, M., Straka, J., and Rasmussen, E.: Precipitation uncertainty due to variations in precipitation particle parameters within a simple microphysics scheme, Mon. Weather Rev., 132, 2610-2627, 2004. (Pubitemid 39622102)
14. Grell, G. and Dévényi, D.: A generalized approach to parameterizing convection combining ensemble and data assimilation techniques, Geophys. Res. Lett., 29, 1693, doi:10.1029/2002GL015311, 2002.
15. Hohenegger, C. and Schär, C.: Predictability and error growth dynamics in cloud-resolving models, J. Atmos. Sci., 64, 4467-4478, 2007.
16. Hohenegger, C., Lüthi, D., and Schär, C.: Predictability mysteries in cloud-resolving models, Mon. Weather Rev., 134, 2095-2107, 2006. (Pubitemid 44275526)
17. Houtekamer, P., Lefaivre, L., Derome, J., Ritchie, H., and Mitchell, H.: A system simulation approach to ensemble prediction, Mon. Weather Rev., 124, 1225-1242, 1996. (Pubitemid 126551850)
18. Lafore, J. P., Stein, J., Asencio, N., Bougeault, P., Ducrocq, V., Duron, J., Fischer, C., Héreil, P., Mascart, P., Masson, V., Pinty, J. P., Redelsperger, J. L., Richard, E., and Vilà-Guerau de Arellano, J.: The Meso-NH Atmospheric Simulation System. Part I: adi-abatic formulation and control simulations, Ann. Geophys., 16, 90-109, doi:10.1007/s00585-997-0090-6, 1998.
19. Lambert, D. and Argence, S.: Preliminary study of an intense rainfall episode in Corsica, 14 September 2006, Adv. Geosci., 16, 125-129, doi:10.5194/adgeo-16-125-2008, 2008.
20. Lorenz, E. N.: Deterministic nonperiodic flow, J. Atmos. Sci., 20, 130-141, 1963.
21. Lorenz, E. N.: The predictability of a flow which possesses many scales of motion, Tellus, 21, 289-307, 1969.
22. Miglietta, M. and Rotunno, R.: Simulations of moist nearly neutral flow over a ridge, J. Atmos. Sci., 62, 1410-1427, 2005. (Pubitemid 40815607)
23. Miglietta, M. and Rotunno, R.: Numerical simulations of conditionally unstable flow over a mountain ridge, J. Atmos. Sci., 66, 1865-1885, 2009.
24. Mlawer, E. J., Taubman, S. J., Brown, P. D., Iacono, M. J., and Clough, S. A.: Radiative transfer for inhomogeneous atmospheres: RRTM, a validated corrolated-k model for the longwave, J. Geophys. Res., 102D, 16663-16682, 1997.
25. Noilhan, J. and Mahfouf, J. F.: The ISBA land surface parameteri-sation. Global Planet Chang., 13, 145-159, 1996.
26. Nuissier, O., Ducrocq, V., Ricard, D., Lebeaupin, C., and Anquetin, S.: A numerical study of three catastrophic precipitating events over southern France, I: Numerical framework and synoptic ingredients, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 134, 111-130, 2008. (Pubitemid 351512717)
27. Nuissier, O., Joly, B., Ducrocq, V., Joly, A., and Arbogast, P.: A statistical downscaling to identify the large scale circulation patterns associated with heavy precipitation events over southern France, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 137, 1812-1827, 2011.
28. Palmer, T.: A nonlinear dynamical perspective on model error: A proposal for non-local stochastic-dynamic parametrization in weather and climate prediction models, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 127, 279-304, 2001. (Pubitemid 32257521)
29. Parker, M. D. and Johnson, R. H.: Organized modes of midlatitude mesoscale convective systems, Mon. Weather Rev., 128, 3413-3436, 2000.
30. Pergaud, J., Masson, V., Malardel, S., and Couvreux, F.: A parameterization of dry thermals and shallow cumuli for mesoscale numerical weather prediction, Bound. Lay. Meteorol., 132, 83-106, 2009.
31. Pinty, J. P. and Jabouille, P.: A mixed-phase cloud parameterization for use in a mesoscale non-hydrostatic model: simulations of a squall line and of orographic precipitations, in: Tenth AMS Cloud Physics Conference, American Meteorological Society, Everett, WA, USA, 217-220, 1998.
32. Romero, R., Mart́n, A., Homar, V., Alonso, S., and Ramis, C.: Predictability of prototype flash flood events in the Western Mediter-ranean under uncertainties of the precursor upper-level disturbance: the HYDROPTIMET case studies, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 5, 505-525, doi:10.5194/nhess-5- 505-2005, 2005. (Pubitemid 41258966)
33. Schwartz, C., Kain, J., Weiss, S., Xue, M., Bright, D., Kong, F., Thomas, K., Levit, J., Coniglio, M., and Wandishin, M.: Toward improved convection-allowing ensemble. model physics sensitivities and optimizing probalistic guidance with small ensemble membership, Weather Forecast., 25, 263-280, 2010.
34. Seity, Y., Brousseau, P., Malardel, S., Hello, G., Bénard, P., Bout-tier, F., Lac, C., and Masson, V.: The AROME-France convec-tive scale operational model, Mon. Weather Rev., 139, 976-991, 2011.
35. Serafin, S. and Ferretti, R.: Sensitivity of a mesoscale model to mi-crophysical parameterizations in the MAP SOP events IOP2b and IOP8, J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 46, 1438-1454, 2007. (Pubitemid 350001967)
36. Stein, J., Richard, E., Lafore, J. P., Pinty, J. P., Asencio, N., and Cosma, S.: High-resolution non-hydrostatic simulations of flash-flood episodes with grid-nesting and ice-phase parameterization, Meteorol. Atmos. Phys., 72, 203-221, 2000.
37. Stensrud, D., Bao, J., and Warner, T.: Using initial conditions and model physics perturbations in short-range ensemble simulations of mesoscale convective systems, Mon. Weather Rev., 128, 2077-2107, 2000.
38. Taylor, K. E.: Summarizing multiple aspects of model performabce in a single diagram, J. Geophys. Res., 106, 7183-7192, 2001.
39. Van Weverberg, K., van Lipzig, N., and Delobbe, L.: The impact of size distribution assumptions in a bulk one-Moment micro-physics scheme on simulated surface precipitation and storm dynamics during a low-topped supercell case in Belgium, Mon. Weather Rev., 139, 1131-1147, 2011.
40. Vié, B., Nuissier, O., and Ducrocq, V.: Cloud-resolving ensemble simulations of mediterranean heavy precipitating events: Uncertainty on initial conditions and lateral boundary conditions, Mon. Weather Rev., 139, 403-423, 2011.
41. Vié, B., Molinié, G., Nuissier, O., Vincendon, B., Ducrocq, V., Bouttier, F., and Richard, E.: Hydro-meteorological evaluation of a convection-permitting ensemble prediction system for Mediterranean heavy precipitating events, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 2631-2645, doi:10.5194/nhess-12-2631-2012, 2012.
42. Walser, A.: Predictability of precipitation in a cloud-resolving model, Mon. Weather Rev., 132, 560-577, 2004. (Pubitemid 38335450)