An analysis of long-term trends, seasonality and short-term dynamics in water quality data from Plynlimon, Wales

Science of the Total Environment

Volumn 434, Issue , 2012, Pages 186-200

  Halliday, Sarah J ^a   Wade, Andrew J ^a   Skeffington, Richard A ^a   Neal, Colin ^b   Reynolds, Brian ^b   Rowland, Philip ^b   Neal, Margaret ^b   Norris, Dave ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF READING   (United Kingdom)

^b CENTRE FOR ECOLOGY AND HYDROLOGY   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Carbon; Diurnal cycles; High frequency monitoring; Nitrogen; Plynlimon; Time series analysis

Indexed keywords

DISSOLVED ORGANIC CARBON; DIURNAL CYCLE; DIURNAL VARIABILITY; HIGH FREQUENCY DATA; HIGH-FREQUENCY MONITORING; HYDROCHEMICALS; IN-PHASE; LONG-TERM TREND; NONSTATIONARY; PLYNLIMON; SAMPLE COLLECTION; SEASONALITY; SULPHATES; SUMMARY STATISTIC; WATER QUALITY DATA;

CARBON; CATCHMENTS; CHLORINE COMPOUNDS; HARMONIC ANALYSIS; HYDROCHEMISTRY; NITROGEN; RUNOFF; SAMPLING; WATER QUALITY;

DYNAMICS;

ALUMINUM; CALCIUM; CHLORIDE; IRON; NITRATE; ORGANIC CARBON; SILICON; SULFATE;

CATCHMENT; CONCENTRATION (COMPOSITION); DISSOLVED ORGANIC CARBON; DIURNAL VARIATION; ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING; HYDROCHEMISTRY; LONG-TERM CHANGE; NITROGEN; STREAMWATER; SULFATE; TIME SERIES ANALYSIS; WATER QUALITY;

ARTICLE; CATCHMENT; CIRCADIAN RHYTHM; CONCENTRATION (PARAMETERS); CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK; CONDUCTANCE; DARKNESS; DATA ANALYSIS; DATA BASE; ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING; ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS; GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION; HYDRODYNAMICS; LONG TERM TREND; PH; PRIORITY JOURNAL; SEASONAL VARIATION; SHORT TERM DYNAMICS; STREAM (RIVER); TIME SERIES ANALYSIS; TREND STUDY; UNITED KINGDOM; WATER ANALYSIS; WATER QUALITY; WATER SAMPLING;

SEASONS; WALES; WATER QUALITY;

CEREDIGION; PLYNLIMON; UNITED KINGDOM; WALES;

EID: 84865190299     PISSN: 00489697     EISSN: 18791026     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2011.10.052     Document Type: Article

References (100)

1. Becker S., Halsall C.J., Tych W., Hung H., Attewell S., Blanchard P., et al. Resolving the long-term trends of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in the Canadian Arctic atmosphere. Environ Sci Technol 2006, 40(10):3217-3222.
2. Bergström S., Graham P.L. On the scale problem in hydrological modelling. J Hydrol 1998, 211:253-265.
3. Beven K. How far can we go in distributed hydrological modelling?. Hydrol Earth Sys Sci 2001, 5(1):1-12.
4. Beven K. A manifesto for the equifinality thesis. J Hydrol 2006, 320(1-2):18-36.
5. Beven K. On undermining the science?. Hydrol Process 2006, 20:3141-3146.
6. Beven K. Towards integrated environmental models of everything: uncertainty, data and modelling as a learning process. Hydrol Earth Sys Sci 2007, 11(1):460-467.
7. Beven K.J., Binley A.M. The future of distributed models: model calibration and uncertainty prediction. Hydrol Process 1992, 6(3):279-298.
8. Birkel C., Dunn S.M., Tetzlaff D., Soulsby C. Assessing the value of high-resolution isotope tracer data in the stepwise development of a lumped conceptual rainfall-runoff model. Hydrol Process 2010, 24:2335-2348.
9. Bowes M.J., Smith J.T., Neal C. The value of high resolution nutrient monitoring: a case study of the River Frome, Dorset, UK. J Hydrol 2009, 378:82-96.
10. Bronstert A. Rainfall-runoff modelling for assessing impacts of climate and land-use change. Hydrol Process 2004, 18:567-570.
11. Capelo S., Mira F., de Bettencourt A.M. In situ continuous monitoring of chloride, nitrate and ammonium in a temporary stream: comparison with standard methods. Talanta 2007, 71(3):1166-1171.
12. Cassidy R., Jordan P. Limitations of instantaneous water quality sampling in surfacewater catchments: comparison with near-continuous phosphorus time-series data. J Hydrol 2011, 405:182-193.
13. Chapman P.J., Clark J.M., Reynolds B., Adamson J.K. The influence of organic acids in relation to acid deposition in controlling the acidity of soil and stream waters on a seasonal basis. Environ Pollut 2008, 151:110-120.
14. Chappell N.A., Tych W. Identifying step changes in single streamflow and evaporation records due to forest cover change. Hydrol Process 2011, 25. n/a. 10.1002/hyp.8115.
15. Ciavatta S., Pastres R. Exploring the long-term and interannual variability of biogeochemical variables in coastal areas by means of a data assimilation approach. Estuar Coast Shelf S 2011, 91(3):411-422.
16. Clark J.M., Bottrell S.H., Evans C.D., Monteith D.T., Bartlett R., Rose R., et al. The importance of the relationship between scale and process in understanding long-term DOC dynamics. Sci Total Environ 2010, 408:2768-2775.
17. Cooper D.M. Evidence of sulphur and nitrogen deposition signals at the United Kingdom Acid Waters Monitoring Network sites. Environ Poll 2005, 137:41-54.
18. Dean S., Freer J.E., Beven K.J., Wade A.J., Butterfield D. Uncertainty assessment of a process-based integrated catchment model of phosphorus (INCA-P). Stoch Env Res Risk A 2009, 23(7):991-1010.
19. 18O data in modelling the hydrological behaviour of a small upland catchment in northeast Scotland. Hydrol Res 2008, 337-358. 39.5-6.
20. Dunn S.M., Freer J., Weiler M., Kirkby M.J., Seibert J., Quinn P.F., et al. Conceptualization in catchment modelling: simply learning?. Hydrol Process 2008, 22:2389-2393.
21. Evans C.D., Monteith D.T. Chemical trends at lakes and streams in the UK Acid Waters Monitoring Network, 1988-2000; Evidence for recent recovery at a national scale. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 2001, 5:351-366.
22. Evans C.D., Monteith D.T., Harriman R. Long-term variability in the deposition of marine ions at west coast sites in the UK Acid Waters Monitoring Network: impacts on surface water chemistry and significance for trend determination. Sci Total Environ 2001, 265(1-3):115-129.
23. Evans C.D., Cullen J.M., Alewell C., Kopácek J., Marchetto A., Moldan F., et al. Recovery from acidification in European surface waters. Hydrol Earth Syst Sc 2001, 5(3):283-297.
24. Evans C.D., Monteith D.T., Cooper D.M. Long-term increases in surface water dissolved organic carbon: observations, possible causes and environmental impacts. Environ Pollut 2005, 137:55-71.
25. Foster H.J., Lees M.J., Wheater H.S., Neal C., Reynolds B. A hydrochemical modelling framework for combined assessment of spatial and temporal variability in stream chemistry; application to Plynlimon, Wales. Hydrol Earth Sys Sci 2001, 5(1):49-58.
26. Gammons C.H., Nimick D.A., Parker S.R., Cleasby T.E., McCleskey R.B. Diel behaviour of iron and other heavy metals in a mountain stream with acidic to neutral pH: Fisher Creek, Montana, USA. Geochim Cosmochim Acta 2005, 69:2505-2516.
27. García-Ferrer A., Queralt R.A. Can univariate models forecast turning points in seasonal economic time series?. Int J Forecasting 1998, 14:433-446.
28. Godsey S.E., Aas W., Clair T.A., de Wit H.A., Fernandez I.J., Kahl S.J., et al. Generality of fractal 1/f scaling in catchment tracer time series, and its implications for catchment travel time distributions. Hydrol Proc 2010, 24:1660-1671.
29. Green S., Marsh T.J. A consideration of rainfall, runoff and losses at Plynlimon in the context of long term hydrological variability in the UK and maritime Western Europe. Hydrol Earth Sys Sci 1997, 1(3):399-407.
30. Grip H., Jansson P.E., Johnsson H., Nilsson I.S. Application of the "Birkenes" model to two forested catchments on the Swedish west coast. Ecol Bull 1985, 37:176-192.
31. Hart J.K., Martinez K. Environmental sensor networks: a revolution in earth system science?. Earth-Sci Rev 2006, 78:177-191.
32. Hodgson P., Evans J.G. Continuous pH, electrical conductivity and temperature measurement at Plynlimon: towards an integrated, reliable and low maintenance instrument system. Hydrol Earth Sys Sci 1997, 1(3):653-660.
33. Horsburgh J.S., Jones A.S., Stevens D.K., Tarboton D.G., Mesner N.O. A sensor network for high-frequency estimation of water quality constituent fluxes using surrogates. Environ Modell Soft 2010, 25(9):1031-1044.
34. Hughes T.J. Ice sheet modelling and the reconstruction of former ice sheets from glacial geomorphological field data. Modern glacial environments - processes, dynamics and sediments 1995, 77-99. Butterworth-Heinemann, Oxford. J. Menzies (Ed.).
35. Jarvie H.P., Neal C., Tappin A.D., Burton J.D., Hill L., Neal M., et al. Riverine inputs of major ions and trace elements to the tidal reaches of the River Tweed, UK. Sci Total Environ 1999, 251/252:55-81.
36. Jarvie H.P., Neal C., Smart R., Owen R., Fraser D., Forbes I., et al. Use of continuous water quality records for hydrograph separation and to assess short-term variability and extremes in acidity and dissolved carbon dioxide for the River Dee, Scotland. Sci Total Enviro 2001, 265:85-98.
37. Jones A.S., Stevens D.K., Horsburgh J.S., Mesner N.O. Surrogate measures for providing high frequency estimates of total suspended solids and total phosphorus concentrations. Journal Am Water Resour As 2011, 47:239-253.
38. Jordan P., Arnscheidt J., McGrogan H., Mc Cormick S. High-resolution phosphorus transfers at the catchment scale: the hidden importance of non-storm transfers. Hydrol Earth Sys Sci 2005, 9:685-691.
39. Jordan P., Arnscheidt J., McGrogan H., Mc Cormick S. Characterising phosphorus transfers in rural catchments using a continuous bank-side analyser. Hydrol Earth Sys Sci 2007, 11(1):372-381.
40. Keery J., Binley A., Crook N., JWN Temporal and spatial variability of groundwater-surface water fluxes; development and application of an analytical method using temperature time series. J Hydrol 2007, 336(1-2):1-16.
41. Kernan M., Battarbee R.W., Curtis C.J., Monteith D.T., Shilland E.M. Recovery of lakes and streams in the UK from acid rain. ECRC Research Report #141 2010.
42. Kirchner J.W. Aliasing in 1/f noise spectra: origins, consequences, and remedies. Phys Rev E 2005, 066110:1-16.
43. Kirchner J.W. Getting the right answers for the right reasons: linking measurements, analyses, and models to advance the science of hydrology. Water Resourc Res 2006, 42:W03S04.
44. Kirchner J.W. Catchments as simple dynamical systems: catchment characterization, rainfall-runoff modelling, and doing hydrology backward. Water Resourc Res 2009, 45:W02429.
45. Kirchner J.W., Feng X., Neal C. Fractal stream chemistry and its implications for contaminant transport in catchments. Nature 2000, 403:524-527.
46. Kirchner J.W., Feng X., Neal C., Robson A.J. The fine structure of water-quality dynamics. Hydrol Process 2004, 18:1353-1359.
47. Leecaster M.K., Weisberg S.B. Effect of sampling frequency on shoreline microbiology assessments. Mar Pollut Bull 2001, 42(11):1150-1154.
48. Madrid Y., Zayas Z.P. Water sampling: traditional methods and new approaches in water sampling strategy. Trac-Trends Anal Chem 2007, 26(4):293-299.
49. Malcolm I.A., Soulsby C., Youngson A.F. High-frequency logging technologies reveal state dependence of hyporheic process dynamics: implications for hydroecology. Hydrol Process 2006, 20:615-622.
50. Marc V., Robinson M. The long-term water balance (1972-2004) of upland forestry and grassland at Plynlimon, mid-Wales. Hydrol Earth Sys Sci 2007, 11:44-60.
51. MathWorks MATLAB version 7.8.0 (R2009a) 2009, The MathWorks Inc, Natick, Massachusetts.
52. Monteith D.T., Stoddard J.L., Evans C.D., de Wit H.A., Forsius M., Hogasen T., et al. Dissolved organic carbon trends resulting from changes in atmospheric deposition chemistry. Nature 2007, 450:537-540.
53. Montgomery J.L., Harmon T., Kaiser W., Sanderson A., Haas C.N., Hooper R., et al. The WATERS Network: an integrated environmental observatory network for water research. Environ Sci Technol 2007, 41(19):6642-6647.
54. Moraetis D., Efstathiou D., Stamati F., Tzoraki O., Nikolaidis N.P., Schnoor J.L., et al. High-frequency monitoring for the identification of hydrological and bio-geochemical processes in a Mediterranean river basin. J Hydrol 2010, 389(1-2):127-136.
55. - uptake in small forested streams: diurnal and day-to-day variations. J N Am Benthol Soc 2006, 25(3):583-595.
56. Neal C. A view of water quality from the Plynlimon watershed. Hydrol Earth Syst Sc 1997, 1(3):743-753.
57. Neal C. From determinism to fractal processing, structural uncertainty, and the need for continued long-term monitoring of the environment: the case of acidification. Hydrol Process 2002, 16(12):2481-2484.
58. Neal C. The water quality functioning of the upper River Severn, Plynlimon, mid-Wales: issues of monitoring, process understanding and forestry. Hydrol Earth Syst Sc 2004, 8(3):521-532.
59. Neal C., Kirchner J.W. Sodium and chloride levels in rainfall, mist, streamwater and groundwater at the Plynlimon catchments, mid-Wales: inferences on hydrological and chemical controls. Hydrol Earth Syst Sc 2000, 4(2):295-310.
60. Neal C., Christophersen N., Neale R., Smith C.J., Whitehead P.G., Reynolds B. Chloride in precipitation and streamwater for the upland catchment of River Severn, mid-Wales-some consequences for hydrochemical models. Hydrol Process 1988, 2:155-165.
61. Neal C., Wilkinson J., Neal M., Harrow M., Wickham H., Hill L., et al. The hydrochemistry of the headwaters of the River Severn, Plynlimon. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 1997, 1(3):583-617.
62. Neal C., Reynolds B., Neal M., Pugh B., Hill L., Wickham H. Long-term changes in the water quality of rainfall, cloud water and stream water for moorland, forested and clear-felled catchments at Plynlimon, mid-Wales. Hydrol Earth Sys Sci 2001, 5(3):459-476.
63. Neal C., Reynolds B., Neal M., Hughes S., Wickham H., Hill L., et al. Soluble reactive phosphorus levels in rainfall, cloud water, throughfall, stemflow, soil waters, stream waters and groundwaters for the Upper River Severn area, Plynlimon, mid Wales. Sci Total Environ 2003, 314-316:99-120.
64. Neal C., Reynolds B., Neal M., Wickham H., Hill L., Williams B. The impact of conifer harvesting on stream water quality: the Afon Hafren, mid-Wales. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 2004, 8:503-520.
65. Neal C., Robson A.J., Neal M., Reynolds B. Dissolved organic carbon for upland acidic and acid sensitive catchments in mid-Wales. J Hydrol 2005, 304:203-220.
66. Neal C., Neal M., Reynolds B., Maberly S.C., May L., Ferrier R.C., et al. Silicon concentrations in UK surface waters. J Hydrol 2005, 304:75-93.
67. Neal C., House W.A., Jarvie H.P., Neal M., Hill L., Wickham H. The water quality of the River Dunn and the Kennet and Avon Canal. J Hydrol 2006, 330(1-2):155-170.
68. Neal C., Lofts S., Evans C.D., Reynolds B., Tipping E., Neal M. Increasing iron concentrations in UK upland waters. Aquat Geochem 2008, 14(3):263-288.
69. Neal C., Robinson M., Reynolds B., Neal M., Rowland P., Grant S., et al. Hydrology and water quality of the headwaters of the River Severn: stream acidity recovery and interactions with plantation forestry under an improving pollution climate. Sci Total Environ 2010, 408(21):5035-5051.
70. Neal C., Reynolds B., Rowland P., Norris D., Kirchner J.W., Neal M., Sleep D., Lawlor D., Woods C., Thacker S., Guyatt H., Vincent C., Hockenhull K., Wickham H., Harman S., Armstrong L. High-frequency water quality time series in precipitation and streamflow: From fragmentary signals to scientific challenge. Sci Total Environ 2012, 434:3-12. (this issue).
71. Nimick D.A., Gammons C.H., Parker S.R. Diel biogeochemical processes and their effect on the aqueous chemistry of streams: a review. Chem Geol 2011, 283(1-2):3-17.
72. Page T., Beven K.J., Freer J., Neal C. Modelling the chloride signal at Plynlimon, Wales, using a modified dynamic TOPMODEL incorporating conservative chemical mixing (with uncertainty). Hydrol Proc 2007, 21:292-307.
73. Palmer-Felgate E.J., Jarvie H.P., Williams R.J., Mortimer R.J.G., Loewenthal M., Neal C. Phosphorus dynamics and productivity in a sewage-impacted lowland chalk stream. J Hydrol 2008, 351(1-2):87-97.
74. Parker S.R., Gammons C.H., Pedrozo F.L., Wood S.A. Diel changes in metal concentrations in a geogenically acidic river: Rio Agrio, Argentina. J Volc Geothermal Res 2008, 178:213-223.
75. Pedregal D.J., Trapero J.R. Electricity prices forecasting by automatic dynamic harmonic regression models. Energ Convers Manage 2007, 48(5):1710-1719.
76. Prien R.D. The future of chemical in situ sensors. Marine Chemistry 2007, 107(3):422-432.
77. Reynolds B., Edwards A. Factors influencing dissolved nitrogen concentrations and loadings in upland streams of the UK. Agr Water Manage 1995, 27(3-4):181-202.
78. Reynolds B., Fowler D., Smith R.I., Hall J.R. Atmospheric inputs and catchment solute fluxes for major ions in five Welsh upland catchments. J Hydrol 1997, 194:305-329.
79. Roberts B.J., Mulholland P.J. In-stream biotic control on nutrient biogeochemistry in a forested stream, West Fork of Walker Branch. J Geophys Res 2007, 112:G04002.
80. Robson A., Neal C. Chemical signals in an upland catchment in mid-Wales - some implications for water movement. British Hydrological Society Third National Hydrology Symposium, Southhampton 1991, 3.17 - 3.24.
81. Robson A.J., Neal C. Water quality trends at an upland site in Wales, UK, 1983-1993. Hydrol Proc 1996, 10:183-203.
82. Robson A., Neal C., Smith C.J., Hill S. Short term variations in rain and stream water conductivity at a forested site in Mid-Wales - implications for water movement. Sci Total Environ 1992, 119:1-18.
83. Robson A., Beven K., Neal C. Towards identifying sources of subsurface flow: a comparison of components identified by a physically-based runoff model and those determined by chemical mixing techniques. Hydrol Proc 1992, 6:199-214.
84. Robson A., Neal C., Hill S., Smith C.J. Linking variations in short- and medium-term stream chemistry to rainfall inputs - some observations at Plynlimon, Mid-Wales. J Hydrol 1993, 144:291-310.
85. Romanowicz R., Young P., Brown P., Diggle P. A recursive estimation approach to the spatio-temporal analysis and modelling of air quality data. Environ Modell Soft 2006, 21(6):759-769.
86. Rowland A.P., Neal C., Reynolds B., Jarvie H.P., Sleep D., Lawlor A.J., et al. The biogeochemistry of arsenic in a remote UK upland site: trends in rainfall and runoff, and comparisons with urban rivers. J Environ Monit 2011, 13:1255-1263.
87. Rozemeijer J., van der Velde Y.P., de Jonge H., van Geer F., Broers H.P., Bierkens M. Application and evaluation of a new passive sampler for measuring average solute concentrations in a catchment scale water quality monitoring study. Environ Sci Technol 2010, 44(4):1353-1359.
88. Rücker K., Schrautzer J. Nutrient retention function of a stream wetland complex - a high-frequency monitoring. Ecol Eng 2010, 36(5):612-622.
89. Rusjan S., Brilly M., Mikoš M. Flushing of nitrate from a forested watershed: an insight into hydrological nitrate mobilization mechanisms through seasonal high-frequency stream nitrate dynamics. J Hydrol 2008, 354(1-4):187-202.
90. Scholefield D., Le Goff T., Braven J., Ebdon L., Long T., Butler M. Concerted diurnal patterns in riverine nutrient concentrations and physical conditions. Sci Total Environ 2005, 344:201-210.
91. Shaw S.B., Harpold A.A., Taylor J.C., Walter M.T. Investigating a high resolution, stream chloride time series from the Biscuit Brook catchment, Catskills, NY. J Hydrol 2008, 348:245-256.
92. Soulsby C. Contrasts in storm event hydrochemistry in an acidic afforested catchment in upland Wales. J Hydrol 1995, 170(1-4):159-179.
93. Soulsby C., Tetzlaff D., van den Bedem N., Malcolm I.A., Bacon P.J., Youngson A.F. Inferring groundwater influences on surface water in montane catchments from hydrochemical surveys of springs and streamwater. J Hydrol 2007, 333:199-213.
94. Taylor C.J., Pedregal D.J., Young P.C., Tych W. Environmental time series analysis and forecasting with the captain toolbox. Environ Modell Soft 2007, 22(6):797-814.
95. Tomlinson M.S., De Carlo E.H. The need for high resolution time series data to characterize Hawaiian streams. J Am Water Resour As 2003, 39(1):113-123.
96. Vogt T., Schneider P., Hahn-Woernie L.H., Cirpka O.A. Estimation of seepage rates in a losing stream by means of fiber-optic high-resolution vertical temperature profiling. J Hydrol 2010, 380(1-2):154-164.
97. Vrugt J.A., Bouten W., Weerts A.H. Information content of data for identifying soil hydraulic parameters from outflow experiments. Soil Sci Soc Am J 2001, 65:19-27.
98. Young P.C. Data-based mechanistic modelling of environmental, ecological, economic and engineering systems. Environmental Modell Soft 1998, 13:105-122.
99. Young P.C., Pedregal D.J., Tych W. Dynamic harmonic regression. J Forecasting 1999, 18:369-394.
100. Young P.C., Taylor C.J., Tych W., Pedregal D.J. The captain toolbox 2007, Centre for Research on Environmental Systems and Statistics, Lancaster University, UK, Internet. http://www.es.lancs.ac.uk/cres/captain.