Using a multiphysics ensemble for exploring diversity in cloud-shortwave feedback in GCMs

Journal of Climate

Volumn 25, Issue 15, 2012, Pages 5416-5431

  Watanabe, Masahiro ^a   Shiogama, Hideo ^b   Yokohata, Tokuta ^b   Kamae, Youichi ^a   Yoshimori, Masakazu ^a   Ogura, Tomoo ^b   Annan, James D ^c   Hargreaves, Julia C ^c   Emori, Seita ^b   Kimoto, Masahide ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF TOKYO   (Japan)

^b NATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES   (Japan)

^c JAPAN AGENCY FOR MARINE EARTH SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY   (Japan)

Author keywords

Climate change; Climate models; Climate sensitivity; Clouds; Feedback

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE CHANGE SIMULATIONS; CLIMATE SENSITIVITY; CLOUD AMOUNT; CO2 CONCENTRATION; CUMULUS CONVECTION; HYBRID MODEL; INTERCOMPARISONS; INTERDISCIPLINARY RESEARCH; MODEL CONFIGURATION; MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE; MULTI-PHYSICS; PARAMETERIZATION SCHEMES; PROJECT PHASE; TURBULENCE SCHEME;

CARBON DIOXIDE; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLOUDS; FEEDBACK;

CLIMATE MODELS;

ATMOSPHERIC CONVECTION; CARBON DIOXIDE; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE FEEDBACK; CLIMATE MODELING; CLOUD RADIATIVE FORCING; CUMULUS; ENSEMBLE FORECASTING; GLOBAL CLIMATE; PARAMETERIZATION; TURBULENCE;

EID: 84865091777     PISSN: 08948755     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00564.1     Document Type: Article

References (52)

1. Annan, J. D., J. Hargreaves, N. Edwards, and R. Marsh, 2005: Parameter estimation in an intermediate complexity earth system model using an ensemble Kalman filter. OceanModell., 8, 135-154.
2. Bony, S., and J.-L. Dufresne, 2005: Marine boundary layer clouds at the heart of tropical cloud feedback uncertainties in climate models. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L20806, doi:10.1029/ 2005GL023851.
3. Bony, S., J.-L. Dufresne, H. LeTreut, J.-J. Morcrette, and C. Senior, 2004: On dynamic and thermodynamic components of cloud changes. Climate Dyn., 22, 71-86.
4. Brient, F., and S. Bony, 2012: Interpretation of the positive lowcloud feedback predicted by a climate model under global warming. Climate Dyn., doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1279-7, in press.
5. Chikira, M., 2010: A cumulus parameterization with state-dependent entrainment rate. Part II: Impact on climatology in a general circulation model. J. Atmos. Sci., 67, 2194-2211.
6. Chikira, M., and M. Sugiyama, 2010: A cumulus parameterization with state-dependent entrainment rate. Part I: Description and sensitivity to temperature and humidity profiles. J. Atmos. Sci., 67, 2171-2193.
7. Collins, M., B. B. B. Booth, B. Bhaskaran, G. R. Harris, J. M. Murphy, D.M. Sexton, and M. J. Webb, 2010: Climatemodel errors, feedbacks and forcings: A comparison of perturbed physics and multi-model ensembles. Climate Dyn., 36, 1737-1766.
8. Emori, S., A. Hasegawa, T. Suzuki, and K. Dairaku, 2005: Validation, parameterization dependence, and future projection of daily precipitation simulated with a high-resolution atmospheric GCM. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L06708, doi:10.1029/ 2004GL022306.
9. Gettelman, A., J. E. Kay, and K. M. Shell, 2012: The evolution of climate sensitivity and climate feedbacks in the Community Atmosphere Model. J. Climate, 25, 1453-1469.
10. Gregory, J. M., and M. J. Webb, 2008: Tropospheric adjustment induces a cloud component inCO2 forcing. J.Climate, 21, 58-71.
11. Gregory, J. M., and Coauthors, 2004: A new method for diagnosing radiative forcing and climate sensitivity. Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L03205, doi:10.1029/2003GL018747.
12. Hargreaves, J. C., A. Abe-Ouchi, and J. D. Annan, 2007: Linking glacial and future climate through an ensemble of GCM simulations. Climate Past, 3, 77-87.
13. Hartmann, D. L., and K. Larson, 2002: An important constraint on tropical cloud - climate feedback. Geophys. Res. Lett., 29, 1951, doi:10.1029/2002GL015835.
14. Houtekamer, P. L., L. Lefaivre, J. Derome, H. Ritchie, and H. L. Mitchell, 1996: A system simulation approach to ensemble prediction. Mon. Wea. Rev., 124, 1225-1242.
15. Jackson, L.C.,M.Vellinga, andG.R.Harris, 2011: The sensitivity of themeridional overturning circulation tomodelling uncertainty in a perturbed physics ensemble without flux adjustment. Climate Dyn., 39 (1-2), 277-285, doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1110-5.
16. Johnson, R. H., T. M. Rickenbach, S. A. Rutledge, P. E. Ciesielski, and W. H. Schuber, 1999: Trimodal characteristics of tropical convection. J. Climate, 12, 2397-2418
17. [1K-] Model Developers, 2004: K-1 coupled model (MIROC) description. K-1 Technical Report, H. Hasumi and S. Emori, Eds., 34 pp. [Available online at http://amaterasu.ees.hokudai. ac.jp/;fswiki/pub/wiki.cgi?page5CMIP5.]
18. Klein, S. A., and D. L. Hartmann, 1993: The seasonal cycle of low stratiform clouds. J. Climate, 6, 1587-1606.
19. Klocke, D., R. Pincus, and J. Quaas, 2011: On constraining estimates of climate sensitivity with present-day observations through model weighting. J. Climate, 24, 6092-6099.
20. Lauer, A., K.Hamilton, Y. Wang, V. T. J. Phillips, and R. Bennartz, 2010: The impact of global warming on marine boundary layer clouds over the eastern Pacific-A regional model study. J. Climate, 23, 5844-5863.
21. Le Treut, H., and Z. X. Li, 1991: Sensitivity of an atmospheric general circulation model to prescribed SST changes: Feedback effects associated with the simulation of cloud optical properties. Climate Dyn., 5, 175-187.
22. Medeiros, B., and B. Stevens, 2011: Revealing differences in GCM representations of low cloud. Climate Dyn., 36, 385-399.
23. Medeiros, B., A. Hall, and B. Stevens, 2005: What controls the mean depth of the PBL? J. Climate, 18, 3157-3172.
24. Medeiros, B., B. Stevens, I. M. Held, M. Zhao, D. L. Williamson, J. G. Olson, and C. S. Bretherton, 2008: Aquaplanets, climate sensitivity, and low clouds. J. Climate, 21, 4974-4991.
25. Mellor, G. L., and T. Yamada, 1974: A hierarchy of turbulence closure models for planetary boundary layers. J. Atmos. Sci., 31, 1791-1806.
26. Mellor, G. L., and T. Yamada, 1982: Development of a turbulence closure model for geophysical fluid problems. Rev. Geophys. Space Phys., 20, 851-875.
27. Murphy, J., D. M. H. Sexton, D. N. Barnett, G. S. Jones, M. J. Webb, M. Collins, and D. A. Stainforth, 2004: Quantification of modelling uncertainties in a large ensemble of climate change simulations. Nature, 430, 768-772.
28. Nakanishi, M., 2001: Improvement of the Mellor-Yamada turbulence closure model based on large-eddy simulation data. Bound.-Layer Meteor., 99, 349-378.
29. Nakanishi, M., and H. Niino, 2004: An improved Mellor-Yamada level-3 model with condensation physics: Its design and verification. Bound.-Layer Meteor., 112, 1-31.
30. Ogura, T., S. Emori, M. J. Webb, Y. Tsushima, T. Yokohata, A. Abe-Ouchi, and M. Kimoto, 2008: Towards understanding cloud response in atmospheric GCMs: The use of tendency diagnostics. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 86, 69-79.
31. Pan,D.M., and D. A. Randall, 1998: Acumulus parameterization with a prognostic closure. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 124, 949-981.
32. Reichler, T., and J. Kim, 2008: How well do coupled models simulate today's climate? Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 89, 303-311.
33. Rossow, W. B., and R. A. Schiffer, 1999: Advances in understanding clouds fromISCCP. Bull. Amer.Meteor. Soc., 80, 2261-2287.
34. Sanderson, B. M., K. M. Shell, and W. Ingram, 2010: Climate feedbacks determined using radiative kernels in a multithousand member ensemble of AOGCMs. Climate Dyn., 35, 1219-1236.
35. Sherwood, S. C., and C. L. Meyer, 2006: The general circulation and robust relative humidity. J. Climate, 19, 6278-6290.
36. Shiogama, H., and Coauthors, 2012: Physics parameter ensembles of the MIROC5 coupled-atmosphere-ocean GCM without flux corrections. Climate Dyn., in press.
37. Soden, B. J., and I. M. Held, 2006: An assessment of climate feedbacks in coupled ocean-atmosphere models. J. Climate, 19, 3354-3360.
38. Soden, B. J., A. J. Broccoli, and R. S. Hemler, 2004: On the use of cloud forcing to estimate cloud feedback. J. Climate, 17, 3661-3665.
39. Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, M. Marquis, K. Averyt, M. M. B. Tignor, H. L. Miller Jr., and Z. Chen, Eds., 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Cambridge University Press, 996 pp.
40. Stainforth, D. A., and Coauthors, 2005: Uncertainty in predictions of the climate response to rising levels of greenhouse gases. Nature, 433, 403-406.
41. Stensrud, D. J., J.-W. Bao, and T. T. Warner, 2000: Using initial condition and model physics perturbations in short-range ensemble simulations of mesoscale convective systems. Mon. Wea. Rev., 128, 2077-2107.
42. Watanabe, M., S. Emori, M. Satoh, and H. Miura, 2009: A PDFbased hybrid prognostic cloud scheme for general circulation models. Climate Dyn., 33, 795-816.
43. Watanabe, M., and Coauthors, 2010: Improved climate simulation by MIROC5: Mean states, variability, and climate sensitivity. J. Climate, 23, 6312-6335.
44. Watanabe, M., H. Shiogama, T. Yokohata, T. Ogura, M. Yoshimori, S. Emori, and M. Kimoto, 2011: Constraints to the tropical low-cloud trends in historical climate simulations. Atmos. Sci. Lett., 12, 288-293, doi:10.1002/asl.337.
45. Watanabe, M., H. Shiogama, M. Yoshimori, T. Ogura, T. Yokohata, H. Okamoto, S. Emori, and M. Kimoto, 2012: Fast and slow timescales in the tropical low-cloud response to increasing CO2 in two climate models. Climate Dyn., doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1178-y, in press.
46. Webb, M. J., and Coauthors, 2006: On the contribution of local feedback mechanisms to the range of climate sensitivity in two GCM ensembles. Climate Dyn., 27, 17-38.
47. Wilson, D. R., and S. P. Ballard, 1999: A microphysically based precipitation scheme for theUKMeteorological Office unified model. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 125, 1607-1636.
48. Wood, R., and C. S. Bretherton, 2006: On the relationship between stratiform low cloud cover and lower-tropospheric stability. J. Climate, 19, 6425-6432.
49. Wyant,M. C., C. S. Bretherton, and P. N. Blossey, 2009: Subtropical lowcloud response to awarmer climate in a superparameterized climatemodel: Part I.Regime sorting and physicalmechanisms. J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 1, doi:10.3894/JAMES.2009.1.7.
50. Xu, K. M., A. Cheng, and M. Zhang, 2010: Cloud-resolving simulation of low-cloud feedback to an increase in sea surface temperature. J. Atmos. Sci., 67, 730-748.
51. Yokohata, T.,M. J.Webb,M.Collins,K.D.Williams,M. Yoshimori, J.C.Hargreaves, and J.D.Annan, 2010: Structural similarities and differences in climate responses to CO2 increase between two perturbed physics ensembles. J. Climate, 23, 1392-1410.
52. Zhang, M., and C. S. Bretherton, 2008:Mechanisms of low cloud-climate feedback in idealized single-column simulations with the Community Atmospheric Model, version 3 (CAM3). J. Climate, 21, 4859-4878.