Afforestation, agricultural abandonment and intensification: Competing trajectories in semi-arid Mediterranean agro-ecosystems

Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment

Volumn 159, Issue , 2012, Pages 90-104

  Nainggolan, Doan ^a,f   de Vente, Joris ^b,c   Boix Fayos, Carolina ^c   Termansen, Mette ^a,f   Hubacek, Klaus ^d   Reed, Mark S ^e  

^a UNIVERSITY OF LEEDS   (United Kingdom)

^b DEPARTAMENTO DE ECOLOGÍA FUNCIONAL Y EVOLUTIVA   (Spain)

^c RESEARCH GROUP ON QUALITY   (Spain)

^d UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND   (United States)

^e BIRMINGHAM CITY UNIVERSITY   (United Kingdom)

^f AARHUS UNIVERSITY   (Denmark)

Author keywords

Biophysical determinants; Future trajectories; Land use change; Landscape fragmentation; Mediterranean agro ecosystem; Multi temporal assessment; Socioeconomic drivers

Indexed keywords

ABANDONED LAND; AFFORESTATION; AGRICULTURAL ECOSYSTEM; AGRICULTURAL INTENSIFICATION; AGRICULTURAL POLICY; ARABLE LAND; BIOENERGETICS; FUTURE PROSPECT; IRRIGATION; LAND USE CHANGE; LANDSCAPE EVOLUTION; MEDITERRANEAN ENVIRONMENT; POLICY DEVELOPMENT; RAINFED AGRICULTURE; REFORESTATION; RURAL DEVELOPMENT; SEMIARID REGION; SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACT; WATER AVAILABILITY;

GUADALENTIN BASIN; MURCIA [SPAIN]; SPAIN;

EID: 84864397280     PISSN: 01678809     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.agee.2012.06.023     Document Type: Article

References (84)

1. Alemayehu, T., Recatala, L., Fabbri, A.G., Sanchez, J., 2006. Land use change detection as a basis for analysing desertification processes: a case study in Tabernas (Almeria, Spain). Desertification in the Mediterranean Region. A Security Issue, 341-352.
2. Antrop M. The concept of traditional landscapes as a base for landscape evaluation and planning. The example of Flanders Region. Landscape Urban Plan. 1997, 38:105-117.
3. Antrop M. Why landscapes of the past are important for the future. Landscape Urban Plan. 2005, 70:21-34.
4. Aranzabal I., Schmitz M.F., Aquilera P., Pineda F.D. Modelling of landscape changes derived from the dynamics of socio-ecological systems - a case of study in a semiarid Mediterranean landscape. Ecol. Indic. 2008, 8:672-685.
5. Arcas Lario N., Martínez-Carrasco Pleite F. Federación de Cooperativas Agrarias de Murcia (FECOAM). Grandes Siglas de Entidades de Economía Social en la Región de Murcia. Servicio de Publicaciones 2011, 162. Universidad de Murcia. F. Martínez-Carrasco Pleite (Ed.).
6. Bakker M.M., Govers G., van Doom A., Quetier F., Chouvardas D., Rounsevell M. The response of soil erosion and sediment export to land-use change in four areas of Europe: the importance of landscape pattern. Geomorphology 2008, 98:213-226.
7. Bhattarai G., Srivastava P., Marzen L., Hite D., Hatch U. Assessment of economic and water quality impacts of land use change using a simple bioeconomic model. Environ. Manag. 2008, 42:122-131.
8. Boix-Fayos C., Barbera G.G., Lopez-Bermudez F., Castillo V.M. Effects of check dams, reforestation and land-use changes on river channel morphology: case study of the Rogativa catchment (Murcia, Spain). Geomorphology 2007, 91:103-123.
9. Boix-Fayos C., de Vente J., Albaladejo J., Martinez-Mena M. Soil carbon erosion and stock as affected by land use changes at the catchment scale in Mediterranean ecosystems. Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 2009, 133:75-85.
10. Boix-Fayos C., de Vente J., Martinez-Mena M., Barbera G.G., Castillo V. The impact of land use change and check-dams on catchment sediment yield. Hydrol. Process. 2008, 22:4922-4935.
11. Brannstrom C., Jepson W., Filippi A.M., Redo D., Xu Z., Ganesh S. Land change in the Brazilian Savanna (Cerrado), 1986-2002: comparative analysis and implications for land-use policy. Land Use Policy 2008, 25:579-595.
12. Briassoulis H. Analysis of Land Use Change: Theoretical and Modelling Approaches 2000, Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University.
13. Caldas M., Walker R., Arima E., Perz S., Aldrich S., Simmons C. Theorizing land cover and land use change: the peasant economy of Amazonian deforestation. Ann. Assoc. Am. Geogr. 2007, 97:86-110.
14. Castella J.-C., Kam S.P., Quang D.D., Verburg P.H., Hoanh C.T. Combining top-down and, bottom-up modelling approaches of land use/cover change to support public policies: Application to sustainable management of natural resources in northern Vietnam. Land Use Policy 2007, 24:531-545.
15. Cheng H.Q., Masser I. Urban growth pattern modeling: a case study of Wuhan city, PR China. Landscape Urban Plan. 2003, 62:199-217.
16. Claessens L., Schoorl J.M., Verburg P.H., Geraedts L., Veldkamp A. Modelling interactions and feedback mechanisms between land use change and landscape processes. Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 2009, 129:157-170.
17. Dauber J., Hirsch M., Simmering D., Waldhardt R., Otte A., Wolters V. Landscape structure as an indicator of biodiversity: matrix effects on species richness. Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 2003, 98:321-329.
18. de Groot R.S., Wilson M.A., Boumans R.M.J. A typology for the classification, description and valuation of ecosystem functions, goods and services. Ecol. Econ. 2002, 41:393-408.
19. del Río P., Unruh G. Overcoming the lock-out of renewableenergy technologies in Spain: the cases of wind and solar electricity. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 2007, 11:1498-1513.
20. Diaz M., Telleria J.L. Predicting the effects of agricultural changes in central Spanish croplands on seed-eating overwintering birds. Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 1994, 49:289-298.
21. Dunjo G., Pardini G., Gispert M. Land use change effects on abandoned terraced soils in a Mediterranean catchment, NE Spain. Catena 2003, 52:23-37.
22. Fernández Carrillo, M.Á., 2010. Instrumentos político-administrativos para la protección del suelo frente a la erosión en zonas agrícolas: aplicación y resultados en la región de Murcia. A thesis for a Master degree in sustainable use and protection of soil in Mediterranean environment (Unpublished Master Thesis, in Spanish). Faculty of Biology, University of Murcia, Murcia, p. 87.
23. Fleskens F., Nainggolan D., Termansen M., Hubacek K., Reed M.S. Regional effects of local responses to uncertainty of agricultural water supply in Murcia, Spain. Region. Environ. Change 2012, 10.1007/s10113-012-0283-8.
24. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) Guidelines for Soil Description 2006, FAO, Rome.
25. Garcia-Ruiz J.M. The effects of land uses on soil erosion in Spain: a review. Catena 2010, 81:1-11.
26. Garcia-Ruiz J.M., Poesen J. Soil erosion and sediment transport under different land use/land cover scenarios. Catena 2007, 71. 1-1.
27. Geri F., Amici V., Rocchini D. Human activity impact on the heterogeneity of a Mediterranean landscape. Appl. Geogr. 2010, 30:370-379.
28. Geri F., Rocchini D., Chiarucci A. Landscape metrics and topographical determinants of large-scale forest dynamics in a Mediterranean landscape. Landscape Urban Plan. 2010, 95:46-53.
29. Hastie T.J., Tibshirani R.J. Generalized Additive Models 1990, Chapman & Hall, London.
30. Herzog F., Lausch A., Muller E., Thulke H.H., Steinhardt U., Lehmann S. Landscape metrics for assessment of landscape destruction and rehabilitation. Environ. Manag. 2001, 27:91-107.
31. Hill J., Stellmes M., Udelhoven T., Roeder A., Sommer S. Mediterranean desertification and land degradation Mapping related land use change syndromes based on satellite observations. Global Planet. Change 2008, 64:146-157.
32. Hubacek K., Sun L. Land use change at the national and regional level in China: a scenario analysis based on input-output modeling. Interim Report IR-00-053 2001.
33. Kamusoko C., Aniya M. Land use/cover change and landscape fragmentation analysis in the Bindura District, Zimbabwe. Land Degrad. Dev. 2007, 18:221-233.
34. Lasanta T., Gonzalez-Hidalgo J.C., Vicente-Serrano S.M., Sferi E. Using landscape ecology to evaluate an alternative management scenario in abandoned Mediterranean mountain areas. Landscape Urban Plan. 2006, 78:101-114.
35. Lasanta-Martinez T., Vicente-Serrano S.M., Cuadrat-Prats J.M. Mountain Mediterranean landscape evolution caused by the abandonment of traditional primary activities: a study of the Spanish Central Pyrenees. Appl. Geogr. 2005, 25:47-65.
36. Lesschen J.P., Schoorl J.M., Cammeraat L.H. Modelling runoff and erosion for a semi-arid catchment using a multi-scale approach based on hydrological connectivity. Geomorphology 2009, 109:174-183.
37. Lin Y.-P., Hong N.-M., Wu P.-J., Lin C.-J. Modeling and assessing land-use and hydrological processes to future land-use and climate change scenarios in watershed land-use planning. Environ. Geol. 2007, 53:623-634.
38. López-Bermúdez F., Romero-Díaz M.A., Cabezas F., Rojo-Serrano L., Martínez-Fernández J., Martinez-Fernández J., Boer M., Del Barrio G. The Guadalentín basin, Murcia (Spain). Atlas of Mediterranean environments in Europe 1998, 130-142. John Wiley & sons, Chichester. P. Mariota, J.B. Thornes, N. Geeson (Eds.).
39. López-Bermúdez F., González-Barberá G., Alonso-Sarria F., Belmonte Serrato F. Natural resources in the Guadalentín basin (south-east Spain): water as a key factor. Mediterranean Desertification: A mosaic of processes and responses 2002, John Wiley & Sons, Chichester. N.A. Geeson, C.J. Brandt, J.B. Thornes (Eds.).
40. MacDonald D., Crabtree J.R., Wiegsinger G., Dax T., Stamou T., Fleury P., Gutierrez Lazpita J., Gibon A. Agricultural abandonment in mountain areas of Europe: environmental consequences and policy response. J. Environ. Manag. 2000, 59:47-69.
41. Manson S.M. Agent-based modeling and genetic programming for modeling land change in the Southern Yucatan Peninsular Region of Mexico. Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 2005, 111:47-62.
42. Marra G., Wood S.N. Practical variable selection for Generalized Additive Models. Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 2011, 55:2372-2387.
43. McGarigal, K., Cushman, S.A., Neel, M.C., Ene, E., 2002. FRAGSTATS: Spatial Pattern Analysis Program for Categorical Maps. Computer software program produced by the authors at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst. Available at the following web site: http://www.umass.edu/landeco/research/fragstats/fragstats.html.
44. Meerkerk A.L., van Wesemael B., Bellin N. Application of connectivity theory to model the impact of terrace failure on runoff in semi-arid catchments. Hydrol. Process. 2009, 23:2792-2803.
45. Menard S. Applied Logistic Regression Analysis 2002, Sage, London.
46. Metz C.E. Basic principles of ROC analysis. Semin. Nucl. Med. 1978, 8:283-298.
47. Millington J., Romero-Calcerrada R., Wainwright J., Perry G. An agent-based model of Mediterranean agricultural land-use/cover change for examining wildfire risk. JASSS 2008, 11:4.
48. Mottet A., Ladet S., Coque N., Gibon A. Agricultural land-use change and its drivers in mountain landscapes: a case study in the Pyrenees. Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 2006, 114:296-310.
49. Nainggolan, D., Termansen, M., Reed, M.S., Ceborello, E.D., Hubacek, K., 2011. Farmer typology, future scenarios and the implications for ecosystem service provision: a case study from South-Eastern Spain. Regional Environmental Change. (available online). doi:10.1007/s10113-011-0261-6.
50. Oñate J.J., Peco B. Policy impact on desertification: stakeholders' perceptions in southeast Spain. Land Use Policy 2005, 22:103-114.
51. Parker D.C., Manson S.M., Janssen M.A., Hoffmann M.J., Deadman P. Multi-agent systems for the simulation of land-use and land-cover change: a review. Ann. Assoc. Am. Geogr. 2003, 93:314-337.
52. Pita R., Mira A., Moreira F., Morgado R., Beja P. Influence of landscape characteristics on carnivore diversity and abundance in Mediterranean farmland. Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 2009, 132:57-65.
53. Pocewicz A., Nielsen-Pincus M., Goldberg C.S., Johnson M.H., Morgan P., Force J.E., Waits L.P., Vierling L. Predicting land use change: comparison of models based on landowner surveys and historical land cover trends. Landscape Ecol. 2008, 23:195-210.
54. Pontius R.G., Schneider L.C. Land-cover change model validation by an ROC method for the Ipswich watershed, Massachusetts, USA. Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 2001, 85:239-248.
55. Poyatos R., Latron J., Llorens P. Land use and land cover change after agricultural abandonment - the case of a Mediterranean Mountain Area (Catalan Pre-Pyrenees). Mountain Res. Dev. 2003, 23:362-368.
56. Prato T., Clark A.S., Dolle K., Barnett Y. Evaluating alternative economic growth rates and land use policies for Flathead County, Montana. Landscape Urban Plan. 2007, 83:327-339.
57. Puigdefábregas J. Ecological impacts of global change on drylands and their implications for desertification. Land Degrad. Dev. 1998, 9:393-406.
58. Puigdefábregas J., Mendizabal T. Perspectives on desertification: western Mediterranean. J. Arid Environ. 1998, 39:209-224.
59. Qasim M., Hubacek K., Termansen M., Khan A. Spatial and temporal dynamics of land use pattern in District Swat, Hindu Kush Himalayan region of Pakistan. Appl. Geogr. 2011, 31:820-828.
60. Ries J.B. Methodologies for soil erosion and land degradation assessment in Mediterranean-type ecosystems. Land Degrad. Dev. 2010, 21:171-187.
61. Rojo-Serrano, L., 2004. Identification and description of the policies influencing desertification in the Guadalentín basin through the triggering of land use or vegetation cover changes. DESERTLINKS Deliverable 3.3B, WP 3.3. Ministerio de Medio Ambiente, Madrid.
62. Romero-Díaz A., Tobarra-Ochoa P., Lopez-Bermudez F., González-Barberá G. Changing social and economic conditions in a region undergoing desertificationin the Guadalentín. Mediterranean Desertification: A Mosaic of Processes and Responses 2002, 289-301. John Wiley & Sons. N.A. Geeson, C.J. Brandt, J.B. Thornes (Eds.).
63. Romero-Díaz A., Marin Sanleandro P., Sanchez Soriano A., Belmonte Serrato F., Faulkner H. The causes of piping in a set of abandoned agricultural terraces in southeast Spain. Catena 2007, 69:282-293.
64. Roxo M.J., Calvo-Cases A. Analizing the factors affecting gully development and their relationships with land-use changes in the East Alentejo (Portugal). Avances en estudios sobre desertificación 2009, 717-720. EDITUM, Murcia. A. Romero-Díaz, F. Belmonte Serrano, F. Alonso Sarriá, F. López-Bemúdez (Eds.).
65. Rutherford G.N., Bebi P., Edwards P.J., Zimmermann N.E. Assessing land-use statistics to model land cover change in a mountainous landscape in the European Alps. Ecol. Model. 2008, 212:460-471.
66. Schoorl J.M., Veldkamp A. Linking land use and landscape process modelling: a case study for the Alora region (south Spain). Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 2001, 85:281-292.
67. Serra P., Pons X., Sauri D. Land-cover and land-use change in a Mediterranean landscape: a spatial analysis of driving forces integrating biophysical and human factors. Appl. Geogr. 2008, 28:189-209.
68. Silvia Calvo-Iglesias M., Fra-Paleo U., Alberto Diaz-Varela R. Changes in farming system and population as drivers of land cover and landscape dynamics: The case of enclosed and semi-openfield systems in Northern Galicia (Spain). Landscape Urban Plan. 2009, 90:168-177.
69. Sirami C., Nespoulous A., Cheylan J.-P., Marty P., Hvenegaard G.T., Geniez P., Schatz B., Martin J.-L. Long-term anthropogenic and ecological dynamics of a Mediterranean landscape: impacts on multiple taxa. Landscape Urban Plan. 2010, 96:214-223.
70. Siwe R.N., Koch B. Change vector analysis to categorise land cover change processes using the tasselled cap as biophysical indicator. Environ. Monit. Assess. 2008, 145:227-235.
71. Symeonakis E., Calvo-Cases A., Arnau-Rosalen E. Land use change and land degradation in southeastern Mediterranean Spain. Environ. Manag. 2007, 40:80-94.
72. Tobarra-Ochoa P., Martínez-Gallur C. Gestion eficiente del agua o desertificación. El caso de Lorca. Econ. Agraria 1998, 183:253-272.
73. Upadhyay T.P., Solberg B., Sankhayan P.L. Use of models to analyse land-use changes, forest/soil degradation and carbon sequestration with special reference to Himalayan region: a review and analysis. Forest Policy Econ. 2006, 9:349-371.
74. Valbuena D., Verburg P.H., Bregt A.K. A method to define a typology for agent-based analysis in regional land-use research. Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 2008, 128(1-2):27-36.
75. Valbuena D., Verburg P.H., Bregt A.K., Ligtenberg A. An agent-based approach to model land-use change at a regional scale. Landscape Ecol. 2010, 25:185-199.
76. Van Doorn A.M., Bakker M.M. The destination of arable land in a marginal agricultural landscape in South Portugal: an exploration of land use change determinants. Landscape Ecol. 2007, 22:1073-1087.
77. Verburg P.H., Overmars K.P. Combining top-down and bottom-up dynamics in land use modeling: exploring the future of abandoned farmlands in Europe with the Dyna-CLUE model. Landscape Ecol. 2009, 24:1167-1181.
78. Verburg P.H., van Eck J.R.R., de Nijs T.C.M., Dijst M.J., Schot P. Determinants of land-use change patterns in the Netherlands. Environ. Plan. B-Plan. Des. 2004, 31:125-150.
79. Wentz E.A., Nelson D., Rahman A., Stefanov W.L., Sen Roy S. Expert system classification of urban land use/cover for Delhi, India. Int. J. Remote Sens. 2008, 29:4405-4427.
80. Wood S.N. Generalized Additive Models: An Introduction 2006, R Chapman and Hall - CRC, Boca Raton.
81. Wood, S.N., 2011. GAMs with GCV/AIC/REML smoothness estimation and GAMMs by PQL Version 1.7-6.
82. Yue T.X., Haber W., Grossmann W.D., Kasperidus H.D. Discussion on models for species diversity and suggestions for a comprehensive model. ECOMOD Newsletter of the International Society for Ecological Modelling 1998, 1-15.
83. Zhou B., Kockelman K.M. Neighborhood impacts on land use change: a multinomial logit model of spatial relationships. Ann. Regio. Sci. 2008, 42:321-340.
84. Zimmermann P., Tasser E., Leitinger G., Tappeiner U. Effects of land-use and land-cover pattern on landscape-scale biodiversity in the European Alps. Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 2010, 139:13-22.