메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 79, Issue 7, 2012, Pages 1280-1291

Forecasting demand for a newly introduced product using reservation price data and Bayesian updating

Author keywords

Bayesian model; Forecasting; New products; Reservation price

Indexed keywords

BASS MODEL; BAYESIAN MODEL; BAYESIAN UPDATING; BENCHMARK MODELS; BROADBAND INTERNET; CONSUMER SURVEY; FORECASTING DEMAND; FORECASTING PERFORMANCE; LIMITED DATA; LOGISTIC GROWTH MODEL; NEW PRODUCT; POLICY MAKING; PRODUCT LAUNCH; RESERVATION PRICE; SOUTH KOREA;

EID: 84863781589     PISSN: 00401625     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2012.04.003     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (16)

References (36)
  • 1
    • 38249021688 scopus 로고
    • Developing and using forecasting models of consumer durables
    • Bayus B.L., Hong S., Labe R.P. Developing and using forecasting models of consumer durables. J. Prod. Innov. Manage. 1989, 6(1):5-19.
    • (1989) J. Prod. Innov. Manage. , vol.6 , Issue.1 , pp. 5-19
    • Bayus, B.L.1    Hong, S.2    Labe, R.P.3
  • 3
    • 0022034958 scopus 로고
    • Estimating market growth for new products: an analogical diffusion model approach
    • Thomas R.J. Estimating market growth for new products: an analogical diffusion model approach. J. Prod. Innov. Manage. 1985, 2(1):45-55.
    • (1985) J. Prod. Innov. Manage. , vol.2 , Issue.1 , pp. 45-55
    • Thomas, R.J.1
  • 4
    • 0027701695 scopus 로고
    • High-definition television: assessing demand forecasts for a next-generation consumer durable
    • Bayus B.L. High-definition television: assessing demand forecasts for a next-generation consumer durable. Manage. Sci. 1993, 39(11):1319-1333.
    • (1993) Manage. Sci. , vol.39 , Issue.11 , pp. 1319-1333
    • Bayus, B.L.1
  • 5
    • 23044526862 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • DIRECTV: forecasting diffusion of a new technology prior to product launch
    • Bass F.M., Gordon K., Ferguson T.L., Githens M.L. DIRECTV: forecasting diffusion of a new technology prior to product launch. Interfaces Arch. 2001, 31(3b):82-93.
    • (2001) Interfaces Arch. , vol.31 , Issue.3 B , pp. 82-93
    • Bass, F.M.1    Gordon, K.2    Ferguson, T.L.3    Githens, M.L.4
  • 6
    • 0022925404 scopus 로고
    • A simple algebraic estimation procedure for innovation diffusion models of new product acceptance
    • Mahajan V., Sharma S. A simple algebraic estimation procedure for innovation diffusion models of new product acceptance. Technol. Forecast. Soc. 1986, 30(4):331-345.
    • (1986) Technol. Forecast. Soc. , vol.30 , Issue.4 , pp. 331-345
    • Mahajan, V.1    Sharma, S.2
  • 7
    • 0002015918 scopus 로고
    • Purchase intentions and purchase behavior
    • Morrison D.G. Purchase intentions and purchase behavior. J. Mark. 1979, 43(2):65-74.
    • (1979) J. Mark. , vol.43 , Issue.2 , pp. 65-74
    • Morrison, D.G.1
  • 8
    • 0001454225 scopus 로고
    • Adjusting stated intentions measures to predict trial purchases of new products: a comparison of models and methods
    • (August)
    • Jamieson L.F., Bass F.M. Adjusting stated intentions measures to predict trial purchases of new products: a comparison of models and methods. J. Mark. Res. 1989, 26:336-345. (August).
    • (1989) J. Mark. Res. , vol.26 , pp. 336-345
    • Jamieson, L.F.1    Bass, F.M.2
  • 9
    • 0001148463 scopus 로고
    • Bayesian estimation and control of detailing effort in a repeat-purchase diffusion environment
    • Lilien G.L., Rao A.G., Kalish S. Bayesian estimation and control of detailing effort in a repeat-purchase diffusion environment. Manage. Sci. 1981, 27(5):493-506.
    • (1981) Manage. Sci. , vol.27 , Issue.5 , pp. 493-506
    • Lilien, G.L.1    Rao, A.G.2    Kalish, S.3
  • 10
    • 0001408931 scopus 로고
    • Forecasting with a repeat-purchase diffusion model
    • Rao A.G., Yamada M. Forecasting with a repeat-purchase diffusion model. Manage. Sci. 1988, 34(6):734-752.
    • (1988) Manage. Sci. , vol.34 , Issue.6 , pp. 734-752
    • Rao, A.G.1    Yamada, M.2
  • 11
    • 0003073621 scopus 로고
    • New models from old: forecasting product adoption by hierarchical Bayes procedures
    • Lenk P.J., Rao A.G. New models from old: forecasting product adoption by hierarchical Bayes procedures. Mark. Sci. 1990, 9(4):42-53.
    • (1990) Mark. Sci. , vol.9 , Issue.4 , pp. 42-53
    • Lenk, P.J.1    Rao, A.G.2
  • 12
    • 0033245998 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A Bayesian model to forecast new product performance in domestic and international markets
    • Neelamegham R., Chintagunta P. A Bayesian model to forecast new product performance in domestic and international markets. Mark. Sci. 1999, 18(2):115-136.
    • (1999) Mark. Sci. , vol.18 , Issue.2 , pp. 115-136
    • Neelamegham, R.1    Chintagunta, P.2
  • 13
    • 0036333567 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Investigating new product diffusion across products and countries
    • Talukdar D., Sudhir K., Ainslie A. Investigating new product diffusion across products and countries. Mark. Sci. 2002, 21(1):97-114.
    • (2002) Mark. Sci. , vol.21 , Issue.1 , pp. 97-114
    • Talukdar, D.1    Sudhir, K.2    Ainslie, A.3
  • 14
    • 0037298879 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A Bayesian model for prelaunch sales forecasting of recorded music
    • Lee J., Boatwright P., Kamakura W.A. A Bayesian model for prelaunch sales forecasting of recorded music. Manage. Sci. 2003, 49(2):179-196.
    • (2003) Manage. Sci. , vol.49 , Issue.2 , pp. 179-196
    • Lee, J.1    Boatwright, P.2    Kamakura, W.A.3
  • 15
    • 0003341714 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Estimation techniques for macro diffusion models
    • Kluwer Academic Publishers, Boston, MA, V. Mahajan, E. Muller, Y. Wind (Eds.)
    • Putsis W.P., Srinivasan V. Estimation techniques for macro diffusion models. New Product Diffusion Models 2000, 263-291. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Boston, MA. V. Mahajan, E. Muller, Y. Wind (Eds.).
    • (2000) New Product Diffusion Models , pp. 263-291
    • Putsis, W.P.1    Srinivasan, V.2
  • 16
    • 0004152490 scopus 로고
    • W.W. Norton and Company, New York, London
    • Varian H.R. Microeconomic Analysis 1992, W.W. Norton and Company, New York, London.
    • (1992) Microeconomic Analysis
    • Varian, H.R.1
  • 19
    • 0001579437 scopus 로고
    • Quasi-Engel Curves, diffusion, and the ownership of new consumer durables
    • Bonus H. Quasi-Engel Curves, diffusion, and the ownership of new consumer durables. J. Polit. Econ. 1973, 81(3):655-677.
    • (1973) J. Polit. Econ. , vol.81 , Issue.3 , pp. 655-677
    • Bonus, H.1
  • 22
  • 23
    • 20444482001 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evolutionary preference/utility functions: a dynamic perspective
    • Desarbo W.S., Fong D.K.H., Liechty J., Coupland J.C. Evolutionary preference/utility functions: a dynamic perspective. Psychometrika 2005, 70(1):179-202.
    • (2005) Psychometrika , vol.70 , Issue.1 , pp. 179-202
    • Desarbo, W.S.1    Fong, D.K.H.2    Liechty, J.3    Coupland, J.C.4
  • 24
    • 20344365793 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Modelling and forecasting brand share: a dynamic demand system approach
    • Cain P.M. Modelling and forecasting brand share: a dynamic demand system approach. Int. J. Res. Mark. 2005, 22:203-220.
    • (2005) Int. J. Res. Mark. , vol.22 , pp. 203-220
    • Cain, P.M.1
  • 25
    • 0002338132 scopus 로고
    • Commercial use of conjoint analysis: an update
    • (July)
    • Wittink D.R., Cattin P. Commercial use of conjoint analysis: an update. J. Mark. 1989, 53:91-96. (July).
    • (1989) J. Mark. , vol.53 , pp. 91-96
    • Wittink, D.R.1    Cattin, P.2
  • 26
    • 77955987832 scopus 로고
    • Conjoint analysis in consumer research: issues and outlook
    • (September)
    • Green P.E., Srinivasan V. Conjoint analysis in consumer research: issues and outlook. J. Consum. Res. 1978, 5:103-123. (September).
    • (1978) J. Consum. Res. , vol.5 , pp. 103-123
    • Green, P.E.1    Srinivasan, V.2
  • 27
    • 0036814074 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Augmenting conjoint analysis to estimate consumer reservation price
    • Jedidi K., Zhang Z.J. Augmenting conjoint analysis to estimate consumer reservation price. Manage. Sci. 2002, 48(10):1350-1368.
    • (2002) Manage. Sci. , vol.48 , Issue.10 , pp. 1350-1368
    • Jedidi, K.1    Zhang, Z.J.2
  • 31
    • 0003049326 scopus 로고
    • Modelling with mixtures
    • Oxford University Press, J.M. Bernardo, J.O. Berger, A.P. Dawid, A.F.M. Smith (Eds.)
    • West M. Modelling with mixtures. Bayesian Statistics 4 1992, Oxford University Press. J.M. Bernardo, J.O. Berger, A.P. Dawid, A.F.M. Smith (Eds.).
    • (1992) Bayesian Statistics 4
    • West, M.1
  • 32
    • 21344479762 scopus 로고
    • Estimating normal means with a Dirichlet process prior
    • Escobar M.D. Estimating normal means with a Dirichlet process prior. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 1994, 89(425):268-277.
    • (1994) J. Am. Stat. Assoc. , vol.89 , Issue.425 , pp. 268-277
    • Escobar, M.D.1
  • 33
    • 0001407775 scopus 로고
    • A reservation-price model for optimal pricing of multiattribute products in conjoint analysis
    • (August)
    • Kohli R., Mahajan V. A reservation-price model for optimal pricing of multiattribute products in conjoint analysis. J. Mark. Res. 1991, 28:347-354. (August).
    • (1991) J. Mark. Res. , vol.28 , pp. 347-354
    • Kohli, R.1    Mahajan, V.2
  • 34
    • 0004045887 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Brooks/Cole Publishing, Pacific Grove, California
    • Burden R.L., Faires J.D. Numerical Analysis 2004, Brooks/Cole Publishing, Pacific Grove, California. 8th ed.
    • (2004) Numerical Analysis
    • Burden, R.L.1    Faires, J.D.2
  • 35
    • 84863781394 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Accessed Feb. 20, 2007. Available at, Ministry of Information and Communication of Korea
    • Ministry of Information and Communication of Korea IT statistical data Accessed Feb. 20, 2007. Available at. http://eng.mic.go.kr.
    • IT statistical data
  • 36
    • 37349018724 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Demand forecasting for new technology with a short history in a competitive environment: the case of the home networking market in South Korea
    • Lee C., Lee J., Kim Y. Demand forecasting for new technology with a short history in a competitive environment: the case of the home networking market in South Korea. Technol. Forecast. Soc. 2008, 75(1):91-106.
    • (2008) Technol. Forecast. Soc. , vol.75 , Issue.1 , pp. 91-106
    • Lee, C.1    Lee, J.2    Kim, Y.3


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.