Public perceptions of hurricane modification

Risk Analysis

Volumn 32, Issue 7, 2012, Pages 1194-1206

  Klima, Kelly ^a   Bruine de Bruin, Wändi ^a,b   Morgan, M Granger ^a   Grossmann, Iris ^a  

^a CARNEGIE MELLON UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b CARNEGIE MELLON UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

Forecast uncertainty; Hurricane modification; Public perception

Indexed keywords

DAMAGE REDUCTION; FLORIDA; FORECAST UNCERTAINTY; GENERAL PUBLICS; HURRICANE DAMAGE; MENTAL MODEL; POLICY MAKERS; PUBLIC PERCEPTION; RESIDENTS' PERCEPTIONS; WIND SPEED;

PHYSIOLOGY; RISK ANALYSIS; SAFETY ENGINEERING;

HURRICANES;

FORECASTING METHOD; HURRICANE; IMPLEMENTATION PROCESS; PERCEPTION; PUBLIC ATTITUDE; RISK PERCEPTION; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS; WIND VELOCITY;

ADULT; ARTICLE; DISASTER; FEMALE; HUMAN; HURRICANE; INTERVIEW; MALE; METHODOLOGY; PSYCHOLOGICAL MODEL; RISK ASSESSMENT; UNITED STATES;

ADULT; CYCLONIC STORMS; DISASTERS; FEMALE; FLORIDA; HUMANS; INTERVIEWS AS TOPIC; MALE; MODELS, PSYCHOLOGICAL; RISK ASSESSMENT;

FLORIDA [UNITED STATES]; UNITED STATES;

EID: 84863543215     PISSN: 02724332     EISSN: 15396924     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01717.x     Document Type: Article

References (72)

1. Beven JL II, Avila LA, Blake ES, Brown DP, Franklin JL, Knabb RD, Pasch RJ, Rhome JR, Stewart SR. Atlantic hurricane season of 2005. Monthly Weather Review, 2008; 136:1109-1173.
2. Blake E, Rappaport E, Landsea C, Miami NHC. The Deadliest, Costliest, and Most Intense United States Tropical Cyclones from 1851 to 2006 (And Other Frequently Requested Hurricane Facts). NOAA Technical Memorandum NWS TPC-5.
3. Elsner JB, Kossin JP, Jagger TH. The increasing intensity of the strongest tropical cyclones. Nature, 2008; 455:92-95.
4. Knutson TR, McBride JL, Chan J, Emanuel K, Holland G, Landsea C, Held I, Kossin JP, Srivastava AK, Sugi M. Tropical cyclones and climate change. Nature Geoscience, 2010; 3:157-163.
5. Miami-Dade County. Miami-Dade Count-Building Code Compliance Office. Available at:, Accessed 2/28/2011.
6. My Safe Florida. My Safe Florida: Security, Protection, Disaster Preparation. Available at:, Accessed 2/28/2011.
7. Peacock WG, Brody SD, Highfield W. Hurricane risk perceptions among Florida's single family homeowners. Landscape and Urban Planning, 2005; 74:120-135.
8. Husein R, Peacock WG. Examining local coastal hazards mitigation capacities and commitment in Texas. Poster at Natural Hazards Workshop, Boulder, CO, July 2011.
9. Kang JE, Peacock WG, Husein R. An assessment of coastal zone hazard mitigation plans in Texas. Journal of Disaster Research, 2010; 5:526-527.
10. Gladwin H, Lazo J, Morrow B. Peacock W. Willoughby H. Social science research needs for the hurricane forecast and warning system. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2010; 91:25-29.
11. Willoughby HE, Jorgensen DP, Black RA, Rosenthal SL. Project STORMFURY, A scientific chronicle, 1962-1983. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 1985; 66:505-514.
12. American Meteorological Society. 17th Joint Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification/Weather Modification Association Annual Meeting April (20-25 2008). Available at:, Accessed 12/16/2009.
13. Hurricane Modification Workshop Report; Hurricane Modification Workshop; Department of Homeland Security: David Skaggs Research Center, Boulder, CO, February 6-7, 2008.
14. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. HURRMIT: The identification and testing of hurricane mitigation hypotheses. Available at:, Accessed 12/14/2009.
15. Hoffman RN, Henderson JM, Leidner SM, Grassotti C, Nehrkorn T. The response of damaging winds of a simulated tropical cyclone to finite-amplitude perturbations of different variables. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 2006; 63:1924-1937.
16. Zhang H, McFarquhar GM, Saleeby SM, Cotton WR. Impacts of Saharan dust as CCN on the evolution of an idealized tropical cyclone. Geophysical Research Letters, 2007; 34:L14812.
17. Alamaro M, Michele J, Pudov V. A preliminary assessment of inducing anthropogenic tropical cyclones using compressible free hets and the potential for hurricane mitigation. Journal of Weather Modification, 2006; 38:82-96.
18. Rosenfeld D, Khain A, Lynn B, Woodley WL. Simulation of hurricane response to suppression of warm rain by sub-micron aerosols. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2008; 7:3411-3424.
19. White AE, Björkman K, Grabowski E, Letelier RM, Poulos S, Watkins B, Karl DM. An open ocean trial of controlled upwelling using wave pump technology. Journal of Oceanic and Atmospheric Technology, 2010; 27:385-396.
20. Kithil, P. Biological ocean sequestration using wave-driven deep ocean pump system. Electric Utility Environmental Conference. Available at:, Accessed 2/28/2011.
21. Klima K, Lin N, Emanuel K, Morgan MG, Grossmann I. 2011. Hurricane modification and adaptation in Miami-Dade County, Florida Manuscript under review. 2011.
22. Klima K, Morgan MG, Grossmann I, Emanuel K. Does it make sense to modify tropical cyclones? A decision-analytic assessment. Engineering Science and Technology, 2011; 45: 4242-4248.
23. Slovic, P. Perceived risk, trust and democracy. Chapter 19 in Paul Slovic (ed). The Perception of Risk. London : Earthscan Risk in Society Series, 2000.
24. Slovic, P. Perception of risk. Science, 1987; 236:280-285.
25. Slovic P, Peters E. Risk perception and affect. Current Directions in Psychological Science, 2006; 15:322-325.
26. Morgan MG, Fischhoff B, Bostrom A, Atman CJ. Risk Communication: A Mental Models Approach. New York : Cambridge University Press, 2002.
27. Faupel C, Kelley S, Peetee T. The impact of disaster education on disaster preparedness for Hurricane Hugo. International Journal of Mass Emergencies and Disasters, 1992; 11:305-322.
28. Burby R. Hurricane Katrina and the paradoxes of government disaster policy: Bringing about wise governmental decisions for hazardous areas. The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 2006; 604:171-191.
29. Beatley T, Brower DJ. Public perceptions of hurricane hazards: The differential effects of hurricane Diana. Coastal Zone Management Journal, 1986; 14:241-269.
30. Cross JA. Longitudinal change in hurricane hazard perception. International Journal of Mass Emergencies and Disasters, 1990; 8:31-48.
31. Burrus RT, Dumas CF, Graham JE. Costal homeowner responses to hurricane risk perceptions. Journal of Housing Research, 2008; 17:49-60.
32. Michel-Kerjan EO, Kousky C. Come rain or shine: Evidence on flood insurance purchases in Florida. Journal of Risk and Insurance, 2010; 77:369-397.
33. Shaw WD, Baker J. Models of location choice and willingness to pay to avoid hurricane risks for Hurricane Katrina evacuees. International Journal of Mass Emergencies and Disasters, 2010; 28:87-114.
34. Lindell MK, Hwang SN. Households' perceived personal risk and responses in a multihazard environment. Risk Analysis, 2008; 28:539-556.
35. Arlikatti S, Lindell MK, Prater CS, Zhang Y. Risk area accuracy and hurricane evacuation expectations of coastal residents. Environment and Behavior, 2006; 38:226-247.
36. Tierney KJ, Lindell MK, Perry RW. Facing the Unexpected: Disaster Preparedness and Response in the United States. Washington, DC : Joseph Henry Press, 2001.
37. Sadowski NC, Sutter D. Mitigation motivated by past experience: Prior hurricanes and damages. Ocean and Coastal Management, 2008; 51:303-313.
38. Norris FH, Smith T, Kaniasty K. Revisiting the experience behavior hypothesis: The effects of Hurricane Hugo on hazard preparedness and other self-protective acts. Basic Applied Psychology, 1999; 21:27-47.
39. Mileti DS. Disasters by Design: A Reassessment of Natural Hazards in the United States. Washington, DC : Joseph Henry Press, 1999.
40. Baker EJ. Hazard Management Group, Inc. Hurricane preparedness in Florida households in 2010. Prepared for Florida Division of Emergency Management, May 2010.
41. Kahneman D, Tversky, A. The simulation heuristic Pp. 201-208 in Kahneman D, Slovic P, & Tversky A (eds). Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. New York : Cambridge University Press, 1982.
42. Ritov I, Baron, J. Protected values and omission bias. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 1999; 79:79-94.
43. Landman J. Regret and elation following action and inaction. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 1988; 13:524-536.
44. Williams CW, Lees-Haley PR, Price JR. The role of counterfactual thinking and causal attribution in accident-related judgments. Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 1996; 26:2100-2112.
45. Howard RA, Matheson JE, North DW. The decision to seed hurricanes. Science, 1972; 176:1191-1202.
46. Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Service, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, National Hurricane Center. National hurricane center product description document: A user's guide to hurricane products. February 2010. Available at:, Accessed March 03, 2011.
47. Broad K, Leiserowitz A, Weinkle J, Stekette M. Misinterpretations of the "cone of uncertainty" in Florida during the 2004 hurricane season. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2007; 88:661-667.
48. Bruine de Bruin W, Downs JS, Fischhoff, B. Adolescents' thinking about the risks of sexual behaviors. Chapter 17 in Lovett MC, Shah P (eds). Thinking with Data. New York : Erlbaum, 2007.
49. Palmgren CR, Morgan MG, Bruine de Bruin W, Keith DW. Initial public perceptions of deep geological and oceanic disposal of carbon dioxide. Environmental Science and Technology, 2004; 38:6441-6450.
50. Bostrom A, Fischhoff B, Morgan MG. Characterizing mental models of hazardous processes: A methodology and an application to radon. Journal of Social Issues, 1992; 48:85-100.
51. Bostrom A, Morgan MG, Fischhoff B, Read D. What do people know about global climate change? Part 1: Mental models. Risk Analysis, 1994; 14:959-970.
52. Read D, Bostrom A, Morgan MG, Fischhoff B, Smuts T. What do people know about global climate change? II. Survey studies of educated laypeople. Risk Analysis, 1994; 14:971-982.
53. Reynolds TW, Bostrom A, Read D, Morgan MG. Now what do people know about global climate change? Survey studies of educated laypeople. Risk Analysis, 2010; 30:1520-1538.
54. Fleishman LA, Bruine de Bruin W, Morgan MG. Informing Science Teachers about Low-Carbon Technologies and Portfolios. Manuscript in preparation. 2011.
55. Bruine de Bruin W, Downs JS, Fischhoff B, & Palmgren C. Development and evaluation of an HIV/AIDS knowledge measure for adolescents focusing on misunderstood concepts. HIV/AIDS Prevention in Children and Youth, 2007; 8:35-57.
56. Morgan MG, Fischhoff B, Bostrom A, Atman CJ. Risk Communication: A Mental Models Approach. New York : Cambridge University Press, 2002.
57. Converse JM, Presser S. SURVEY QUESTIONS Handcrafting the Standardized Questionnaire. Newbury Park : Sage Publications, 1986.
58. Dillman DA, Smyth JD, Christian LM. Internet, Mail, and Mixed-Mode Surveys: The Tailored Design Method. Hoboken, NJ : John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2009.
59. Cronbach, LJ. Coefficient alpha and the internal structure of tests. Psychometrika, 1951; 16:297-334.
60. DeVellis RF. Scale Development. Theory and Applications. (2nd edition). Thousand Oaks, CA : Sage Publications, 2003.
61. Stevens, JP. Applied Multivariate Statistics for the social sciences. Mahwah, NJ : Lawrence Erblaum, 2002.
62. Daamen D, De Best-Waldhober M, Damen K, Faaij A. (2006). Pseudo-opinions on CCS technologies, paper presented at GHGT-8 2006, Trondheim, Norway
63. Strack F, Schwarz N, Wänke M. Semantic and pragmatic aspects of context effects in social and psychological research. Social Cognition, 1991; 9:111-125.
64. Frewer LJ, Hunt S, Brennan M, Kuznesof S, Ness M, Ritson C. The views of scientific experts on how the public conceptualize uncertainty. Journal of Risk Research, 2003; 6:75-85.
65. Visschers VHM, Meertens RM, Passchier WWF, de Vries NNK. Probability information in risk communication: A review of the research literature. Risk Analysis, 2009; 29:267-287.
66. Faulkner H, Parker D, Green C, Beven, K. Developing a translational discourse to communicate uncertainty in flood risk between science and the practitioner. Ambio, 2007; 36:692-703.
67. Fagerlin A, Ubel PA, Smith DM, Zikmund-Fisher BJ. Making numbers matter: Present and future research in risk communication. American Journal of Health Behavior, 2007; 31:S47-S56 (Supplement).
68. Bruine de Bruin W, Stone ER, MacDonald Gibson J, Fischbeck PS, Shoraka MB. The effect of communication design on responses to risks related to unexploded ordnance. Manuscript under review. 2011.
69. U.S. Census Bureau. Florida QuickFacts from the US Census Bureau. Available at:, Accessed July 22, 2011.
70. McNemar Q. Note on the sampling error of the difference between correlated proportions or percentages. Psychometrika, 1947; 18;12:153-157.
71. Bland JM, Altman DG. Some examples of regression towards the mean. British Medical Journal, 1994; 309:780.
72. Bland JM, Altman DG. Regression towards the mean. British Medical Journal, 1994; 308:1499.