Regionalism, regional structures and security management in Central Asia

International Affairs

Volumn 80, Issue 3, 2004, Pages

  Allison, Roy ^a,b  

^a Roy Inst of International Affairs   (United Kingdom)

^b UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 84862360383     PISSN: 00205850     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-2346.2004.00393.x     Document Type: Review

References (89)

1. William Tow, Subregional security cooperation in the Third World (Boulder and London: Lynne Rienner, 1990), pp. 4-5.
2. 'Central Asia' in this article is taken to comprise the five CIS Central Asian states: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Security policy is defined here narrowly as relating to inter- and intrastate threat environments that create the potential for conflict rather than in the broad sense of human security. Nor are economic, energy or environmental aspects of security analysed in any detail. For analysis of efforts at region-building in a variety of functional fields of cooperation in the post-Soviet states, including aspects of 'soft security', see Renata Dwan and Oleksandr Pavliuk, eds, Building security in the new states of Eurasia: subregional cooperation in the former Soviet space (Armonk, NY: M. E. Sharpe, 2000). This volume includes background research for the current article in Roy Allison, 'Subregional cooperation and security in the CIS', pp. 149-76. See also Renata Dwan, ed., Building security in Europe's new borderlands: subregional cooperation in the wider Europe (Armonk, NY: M. E. Sharpe, 1999).
3. 'Central Asia' in this article is taken to comprise the five CIS Central Asian states: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Security policy is defined here narrowly as relating to inter- and intrastate threat environments that create the potential for conflict rather than in the broad sense of human security. Nor are economic, energy or environmental aspects of security analysed in any detail. For analysis of efforts at region-building in a variety of functional fields of cooperation in the post-Soviet states, including aspects of 'soft security', see Renata Dwan and Oleksandr Pavliuk, eds, Building security in the new states of Eurasia: subregional cooperation in the former Soviet space (Armonk, NY: M. E. Sharpe, 2000). This volume includes background research for the current article in Roy Allison, 'Subregional cooperation and security in the CIS', pp. 149-76. See also Renata Dwan, ed., Building security in Europe's new borderlands: subregional cooperation in the wider Europe (Armonk, NY: M. E. Sharpe, 1999).
4. 'Central Asia' in this article is taken to comprise the five CIS Central Asian states: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Security policy is defined here narrowly as relating to inter- and intrastate threat environments that create the potential for conflict rather than in the broad sense of human security. Nor are economic, energy or environmental aspects of security analysed in any detail. For analysis of efforts at region-building in a variety of functional fields of cooperation in the post-Soviet states, including aspects of 'soft security', see Renata Dwan and Oleksandr Pavliuk, eds, Building security in the new states of Eurasia: subregional cooperation in the former Soviet space (Armonk, NY: M. E. Sharpe, 2000). This volume includes background research for the current article in Roy Allison, 'Subregional cooperation and security in the CIS', pp. 149-76. See also Renata Dwan, ed., Building security in Europe's new borderlands: subregional cooperation in the wider Europe (Armonk, NY: M. E. Sharpe, 1999).
5. See S. Neil MacFarlane, 'The United States and regionalism in Central Asia', in this issue of International Affairs. The notion of hegemonic regionalism has been applied to American conduct more often than Russian. See e.g. James Mittelman and Richard Falk, 'Global hegemony and regionalism', in Stephen Calleya, ed., Regionalism in the post-Cold War world (Aldershot: Ashgate, 2000), pp. 3-20.
6. See S. Neil MacFarlane, 'The United States and regionalism in Central Asia', in this issue of International Affairs. The notion of hegemonic regionalism has been applied to American conduct more often than Russian. See e.g. James Mittelman and Richard Falk, 'Global hegemony and regionalism', in Stephen Calleya, ed., Regionalism in the post-Cold War world (Aldershot: Ashgate, 2000), pp. 3-20.
7. See Annette Bohr, 'Regionalism in Central Asia: new geopolitics, old regional order', in this issue of International Affairs.
8. Michael Schultz, Fredrik Söderbaum and Joakim Öjendal, eds, Regionalization in a globalizing world: a comparative perspective on forms, actors and processes (London and New York: Zed, 2001), pp. 264, 5-7. See also Bohr, 'Regionalism in Central Asia'.
9. Michael Schultz, Fredrik Söderbaum and Joakim Öjendal, eds, Regionalization in a globalizing world: a comparative perspective on forms, actors and processes (London and New York: Zed, 2001), pp. 264, 5-7. See also Bohr, 'Regionalism in Central Asia'.
10. Erika Weinthal, 'International organizations, Western norms and the construction of regional security in Central Asia: fact or fiction?', in Gabriel Gorodetsky and Werner Weidefeld, eds, Regional security in the wake of the collapse of the Soviet Union: Europe and the Middle East (Bonn: Europa Union, 2002); Neil MacFarlane, Western engagement in the Caucasus and Central Asia (London: Royal Institute of International Affairs, 1999), pp. 58-69. It is not by chance that the most comprehensive study on security communities in different regions contains no chapter on Central Asia or the south Caucasus: see Emanuel Adler and Michael Barnett, eds, Security communities (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1998).
11. Erika Weinthal, 'International organizations, Western norms and the construction of regional security in Central Asia: fact or fiction?', in Gabriel Gorodetsky and Werner Weidefeld, eds, Regional security in the wake of the collapse of the Soviet Union: Europe and the Middle East (Bonn: Europa Union, 2002); Neil MacFarlane, Western engagement in the Caucasus and Central Asia (London: Royal Institute of International Affairs, 1999), pp. 58-69. It is not by chance that the most comprehensive study on security communities in different regions contains no chapter on Central Asia or the south Caucasus: see Emanuel Adler and Michael Barnett, eds, Security communities (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1998).
12. Erika Weinthal, 'International organizations, Western norms and the construction of regional security in Central Asia: fact or fiction?', in Gabriel Gorodetsky and Werner Weidefeld, eds, Regional security in the wake of the collapse of the Soviet Union: Europe and the Middle East (Bonn: Europa Union, 2002); Neil MacFarlane, Western engagement in the Caucasus and Central Asia (London: Royal Institute of International Affairs, 1999), pp. 58-69. It is not by chance that the most comprehensive study on security communities in different regions contains no chapter on Central Asia or the south Caucasus: see Emanuel Adler and Michael Barnett, eds, Security communities (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1998).
13. Bjørn Hettne, 'Regionalism, security and development: a comparative perspective', in Bjørn Hettne, Andras Inotai and Osvaldo Sunkel, Comparing regionalisms: implications for global development (Basingstoke: Palgrave, 2001), pp. 3-5, 8-9.
14. For the OSCE's approach to regional and subregional cooperation in this part of Europe, see Monika Wohlfeld, 'The OSCE and regional cooperation in Europe', in Calleya, ed., Regionalism in the post-Cold War world, pp. 99-112. The OSCE has made some efforts to coordinate the activities of regional and subregional groupings on a pan-regional basis, including the former Soviet region, on functional issues. See the report on the 'OSCE meeting with regional and subregional organizations and initiatives OP. preventing and combating terrorism', OSCE SEC.GAL/166/02, 20 Sept. 2002.
15. Hettne, 'Regionalism, security and development', pp. 5-7.
16. This is reflected, for example, in the participants list of the 'OSCE meeting with regional and subregional organizations and initiatives on preventing and combating terrorism' held on 6 Sept. 2002: see OSCE SEC.GAL/166/02, 20 Sept. 2002, pp. 10-13. New 'subregional cooperation groups' in Central Europe are analysed in Andrew Cottey, Subregional cooperation in the new Europe: building security, prosperity and solidarity from the Barents to the Black Sea (London: Macmillan, 1999). See also Ian Kearns, 'Subregionalism in Central Europe', in Glenn Hook and Ian Kearns, eds, Subregionalism and world order (Macmillan: Basingstoke, 1999), pp. 21-40.
17. This is reflected, for example, in the participants list of the 'OSCE meeting with regional and subregional organizations and initiatives on preventing and combating terrorism' held on 6 Sept. 2002: see OSCE SEC.GAL/166/02, 20 Sept. 2002, pp. 10-13. New 'subregional cooperation groups' in Central Europe are analysed in Andrew Cottey, Subregional cooperation in the new Europe: building security, prosperity and solidarity from the Barents to the Black Sea (London: Macmillan, 1999). See also Ian Kearns, 'Subregionalism in Central Europe', in Glenn Hook and Ian Kearns, eds, Subregionalism and world order (Macmillan: Basingstoke, 1999), pp. 21-40.
18. China is a member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. In December 2002 post-Taleban Afghanistan was invited to become an observer in the Central Asia Cooperation Organization. For an original discussion of the need for regional cooperation in relation to contemporary Afghanistan see Barnett R. Rubin and Andrea Armstrong, 'Regional issues in the reconstruction of Afghanistan', World Policy Journal 10: 1, Spring 2003, pp. 31-40.
19. For a detailed analysis of the role of regionalism for a country close to but not part of this Central European experience see Roman Wolczuk, Ukraine's foreign and security policy 1991-2000 (London: RoutledgeCurzon, 2003).
20. Ian Bremmer and Alyson Bailes, 'Subregionalism in the newly independent states', International Affairs 74: 1, 1998, p. 136. See also Alyson Bailes, 'Subregional organizations: the Cinderella of European security', NATO Review, no. 2, March 1997.
21. Ian Bremmer and Alyson Bailes, 'Subregionalism in the newly independent states', International Affairs 74: 1, 1998, p. 136. See also Alyson Bailes, 'Subregional organizations: the Cinderella of European security', NATO Review, no. 2, March 1997.
22. See Louise Fawcett, 'Exploring regional domains: a comparative history of regionalism', in this issue of International Affairs. Among the many contributions to this debate see Connie Peck, Sustainable peace: the role of the UN and regional organizations in preventing conflict (Oxford: Rowman & Littlefield, 1998).
23. See Louise Fawcett, 'Exploring regional domains: a comparative history of regionalism', in this issue of International Affairs. Among the many contributions to this debate see Connie Peck, Sustainable peace: the role of the UN and regional organizations in preventing conflict (Oxford: Rowman & Littlefield, 1998).
24. S. Neil MacFarlane and Thomas Weiss, 'Regional organizations and regional security', Security Studies 2: 1, Autumn 1992, pp. 6-37; Michael Barnett, 'Partners in peace? The UN, regional organizations, and peace-keeping', Review of International Studies 21, 1995, pp. 411-33.
25. S. Neil MacFarlane and Thomas Weiss, 'Regional organizations and regional security', Security Studies 2: 1, Autumn 1992, pp. 6-37; Michael Barnett, 'Partners in peace? The UN, regional organizations, and peace-keeping', Review of International Studies 21, 1995, pp. 411-33.
26. These are introduced well by Scan Kay, 'Geopolitical constraints and institutional innovation: the dynamics of multilateralism in Eurasia', in James Sperling, Sean Kay and S. Victor Papacosma, Limiting institutions? The challenge of Eurasian security governance (Manchester: Manchester University Press, 2003), pp. 125-43.
27. Bremmer and Bailes, 'Subregionalism in the newly independent states', p. 141.
28. Philip G. Roeder, 'From hierarchy to hegemony: the post-Soviet security complex', in David A. Lake and Patrick M. Morgan, eds, Regional orders: building security in a new world (Pennsylvania: Pennsylvania State University Press, 1997), pp. 235-9.
29. Essentially '[The CIS] has developed as an organisation with free and non-mandatory resolutions, where cooperation has diverse formats, and there is no system of state responsibility for carrying out the obligations that states have assumed': Mariam Arunova, 'The CIS: summing up the past decade, and future prospects', Central Asia and the Caucasus 13: 3, 2002, p. 9.
30. See Andrei Zagorski, 'CIS regional security policy structures', in Roy Allison and Christoph Bluth, eds, Security dilemmas in Russia and Eurasia (London: Royal Institute of International Affairs, 1998), pp. 281-300.
31. Its founding documents specified that the CIS 'is neither a state, nor a supranational formation': the Alma Ata Declaration of 21 Dec. 1991, Diplomaticheskiy vestnik, no. 1, 1991.
32. The literature on this subject is now large and diverse. Recent reassessments include Dov Lynch, Russian peacekeeping strategies in the CIS: the cases of Moldova, Georgia and Tajikistan (London: Macmillan, 2000), pp. 96-104; John Mackinlay and Peter Cross, eds, Regional peacekeepers: the paradox of Russian peacekeeping (Tokyo: United Nations University Press, 2003); Roy Allison, 'Russia, regional conflict and the use of military power', in Steven Miller and Dmitri Trenin, eds, The Russian military: power and politics (Cambridge, MA and London: MIT Press, forthcoming 2004).
33. The literature on this subject is now large and diverse. Recent reassessments include Dov Lynch, Russian peacekeeping strategies in the CIS: the cases of Moldova, Georgia and Tajikistan (London: Macmillan, 2000), pp. 96-104; John Mackinlay and Peter Cross, eds, Regional peacekeepers: the paradox of Russian peacekeeping (Tokyo: United Nations University Press, 2003); Roy Allison, 'Russia, regional conflict and the use of military power', in Steven Miller and Dmitri Trenin, eds, The Russian military: power and politics (Cambridge, MA and London: MIT Press, forthcoming 2004).
34. The literature on this subject is now large and diverse. Recent reassessments include Dov Lynch, Russian peacekeeping strategies in the CIS: the cases of Moldova, Georgia and Tajikistan (London: Macmillan, 2000), pp. 96-104; John Mackinlay and Peter Cross, eds, Regional peacekeepers: the paradox of Russian peacekeeping (Tokyo: United Nations University Press, 2003); Roy Allison, 'Russia, regional conflict and the use of military power', in Steven Miller and Dmitri Trenin, eds, The Russian military: power and politics (Cambridge, MA and London: MIT Press, forthcoming 2004).
35. See Lena Jonson, The Tajik war: a challenge to Russian policy (London: Royal Institute of International Affairs, 1998), pp. 21-5.
36. Martha Brill Olcott, Anders Aslund and Sherman Garnett, 'The failure to establish an integrated security structure', in Getting it wrong: regional cooperation and the Commonwealth of Independent States (Washington DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1999), pp. 77-102.
37. The unrealized Russian agenda is outlined by Col. A. Glushkov, Col. S. Zakharov and Lt. Col. A. Lavrinenko, 'Military-technological cooperation within the CIS', Military Thought 12: 1, 2003, pp. 117-22.
38. See articles by Valerii Nikolaenko, General Secretary of the Collective Security Council: 'Collective Security Treaty: ten years later', International Affairs (Moscow) 48: 3, 2002, pp. 183-8; '10 years of the Collective Security Treaty', International Affairs (Moscow) 49: 3, 2003, pp. 141-7.
39. See articles by Valerii Nikolaenko, General Secretary of the Collective Security Council: 'Collective Security Treaty: ten years later', International Affairs (Moscow) 48: 3, 2002, pp. 183-8; '10 years of the Collective Security Treaty', International Affairs (Moscow) 49: 3, 2003, pp. 141-7.
40. A programme of work for the ATC in the period to 2005 was discussed in October 2003 at a meeting of security service chiefs of CIS countries (with Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan attending only as observers), which also discussed a draft CIS document on combating terrorism and extremism. See Inside Central Asia, 2 Nov. 2003, p. 7. For a rather optimistic and detailed survey of the accomplishments of the ATC see Voenno-promyshlennyy kurer, no. 6, 18 Feb. 2004, p. 8.
41. A programme of work for the ATC in the period to 2005 was discussed in October 2003 at a meeting of security service chiefs of CIS countries (with Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan attending only as observers), which also discussed a draft CIS document on combating terrorism and extremism. See Inside Central Asia, 2 Nov. 2003, p. 7. For a rather optimistic and detailed survey of the accomplishments of the ATC see Voenno-promyshlennyy kurer, no. 6, 18 Feb. 2004, p. 8.
42. This replaced the Collective Security Council of member states of the 1992 Collective Security Treaty. For a Russian evaluation of the latter see 'DKB: desyat' let spustya', Krasnaya zvezda, 14 May 2002, p. 3.
43. This is implied in a call issued by the Russian Secretary General of the CSTO in November 2003 for closer ties with NATO to ensure regional and international security. BBC Monitoring, Inside Central Asia, 23 Nov. 2003, pp. 10-11.
44. 'Organisation of the CIS Collective Security Treaty: the shield becomes impregnable', Krasnaya zvezda, 9 Dec. 2003, p. 2.
45. 'The creation of a defence union in the framework of the CIS will not succeed', Nezavisimaya gazeta, 16 June 2003.
46. 'No integration without stimuli', Nezavisimaya gazeta, 22 Dec. 2003, p. 11.
47. As noted by Lt. Gen. Yevgeny Yurev, commander of the Urals Air Force and Air Defence Army, 'Russia returns to Central Asia', Nezavisimaya gazeta, 24 Oct. 2003, p. 2.
48. BBC Monitoring, Inside Central Asia, no. 439, 12-18 Aug. 2002.
49. Ibid., 29 April-5 May 1996.
50. Jamestown Foundation, Monitor 6: 81, 26 April 2000, 6: 88, 4 May 2000.
51. Jamestown Foundation, Monitor 6: 81, 26 April 2000, 6: 88, 4 May 2000.
52. BBC Monitoring, Inside Central Asia, nos 338, 14-20 Aug. 2000, 339, 21-27 Aug. 2000.
53. BBC Monitoring, Inside Central Asia, nos 338, 14-20 Aug. 2000, 339, 21-27 Aug. 2000.
54. Ibid., no. 406, 17 Dec. 2001-1 Jan. 2002.
55. Natalia Ushakova, 'Central Asian cooperation: toward transformation', Central Asia and the Caucasus 21: 3, 2003, p. 125.
56. See Problema sozdaniya v Tsentralnoy Azii zony svobodnoy ot yadernogo oruzhiya (Almaty: Kazakhstan Association for the Study of Non-Proliferation, 1998); A. Dzhekshenkulov, 'O bezyadernoy zone v Tsentralnoy Azii', Mezhdanarodnaya zhizn 6, 1999, pp. 92-6; Conrad Burkard, 'Regional (non)proliferation: the case of Central Asia' (Camberley: Conflict Studies Research Centre, April 2000), pp. 1-7; Heydar Ali Balouji, 'Denuclearization in Central Asia: a step towards sustained development', Amu Darya: The Iranian Journal of Central Asian Studies 7: 14 and 15, Spring and Summer 2003, pp. 58-70.
57. See Problema sozdaniya v Tsentralnoy Azii zony svobodnoy ot yadernogo oruzhiya (Almaty: Kazakhstan Association for the Study of Non-Proliferation, 1998); A. Dzhekshenkulov, 'O bezyadernoy zone v Tsentralnoy Azii', Mezhdanarodnaya zhizn 6, 1999, pp. 92-6; Conrad Burkard, 'Regional (non)proliferation: the case of Central Asia' (Camberley: Conflict Studies Research Centre, April 2000), pp. 1-7; Heydar Ali Balouji, 'Denuclearization in Central Asia: a step towards sustained development', Amu Darya: The Iranian Journal of Central Asian Studies 7: 14 and 15, Spring and Summer 2003, pp. 58-70.
58. See Problema sozdaniya v Tsentralnoy Azii zony svobodnoy ot yadernogo oruzhiya (Almaty: Kazakhstan Association for the Study of Non-Proliferation, 1998); A. Dzhekshenkulov, 'O bezyadernoy zone v Tsentralnoy Azii', Mezhdanarodnaya zhizn 6, 1999, pp. 92-6; Conrad Burkard, 'Regional (non)proliferation: the case of Central Asia' (Camberley: Conflict Studies Research Centre, April 2000), pp. 1-7; Heydar Ali Balouji, 'Denuclearization in Central Asia: a step towards sustained development', Amu Darya: The Iranian Journal of Central Asian Studies 7: 14 and 15, Spring and Summer 2003, pp. 58-70.
59. See Problema sozdaniya v Tsentralnoy Azii zony svobodnoy ot yadernogo oruzhiya (Almaty: Kazakhstan Association for the Study of Non-Proliferation, 1998); A. Dzhekshenkulov, 'O bezyadernoy zone v Tsentralnoy Azii', Mezhdanarodnaya zhizn 6, 1999, pp. 92-6; Conrad Burkard, 'Regional (non)proliferation: the case of Central Asia' (Camberley: Conflict Studies Research Centre, April 2000), pp. 1-7; Heydar Ali Balouji, 'Denuclearization in Central Asia: a step towards sustained development', Amu Darya: The Iranian Journal of Central Asian Studies 7: 14 and 15, Spring and Summer 2003, pp. 58-70.
60. This argument is developed by Flemming Splidsboel-Hansen, 'GUUAM and the future of CIS military cooperation', European Security 9: 4, Winter 2000, pp. 92-106. See also Kay, 'Geopolitical constraints and institutional innovation', pp. 133-5.
61. This argument is developed by Flemming Splidsboel-Hansen, 'GUUAM and the future of CIS military cooperation', European Security 9: 4, Winter 2000, pp. 92-106. See also Kay, 'Geopolitical constraints and institutional innovation', pp. 133-5.
62. For an argument that GUUAM in fact represents evidence that geopolitical pluralism has emerged in the CIS, see Taras Kuzio, 'Geopolitical pluralism in the CIS: the emergence of GUUAM', European Security 9: 2, Summer 2000, pp. 81-110.
63. President Karimov publicly claimed in any case that he had never pursued that aim or viewed GUUAM from a military point of view: Uzbek Radio, 7 June 2001, BBC Monitoring, Inside Central Asia, no. 378, 4-10 June 2001. See also Nikolay Babichev, 'Uzbekistan progulyal summit', Kommersant, 27 July 2002, p. 5.
64. President Karimov publicly claimed in any case that he had never pursued that aim or viewed GUUAM from a military point of view: Uzbek Radio, 7 June 2001, BBC Monitoring, Inside Central Asia, no. 378, 4-10 June 2001. See also Nikolay Babichev, 'Uzbekistan progulyal summit', Kommersant, 27 July 2002, p. 5.
65. Jamestown Foundation, Prism 3: 9, 7 May 1999, pt 1.
66. For a clear analysis of the weaknesses and limited prospects of military cooperation within GUUAM, see 'GUUAM: realities and prospects', Ukrainian Centre for Economic and Political Studies, National Security and Defence 19: 7, 2001, pp. 22-9. For details of bilateral military-technical cooperation among GUUAM states see ibid., pp. 27-8.
67. For a clear analysis of the weaknesses and limited prospects of military cooperation within GUUAM, see 'GUUAM: realities and prospects', Ukrainian Centre for Economic and Political Studies, National Security and Defence 19: 7, 2001, pp. 22-9. For details of bilateral military-technical cooperation among GUUAM states see ibid., pp. 27-8.
68. Jamestown Foundation, Monitor T- 113, 12 June 2001.
69. Ambassador Yuri Kochubei, 'GUUAM and equal regional cooperation', Central Asia and the Caucasus 14: 2, 2002, p. 102.
70. Russian First Deputy Foreign Minister (and special adviser on CIS affairs to the Russian president) V. Trubnikov, 'Tenth anniversary of the Commonwealth of Independent States', International Affairs (Moscow) 48: 1, 2002, p. 28.
71. BBC Monitoring, Inside Central Asia, no. 424, 29 Apr.-5 May 2002.
72. Ibid., no. 425, 6-12 May 2002.
73. Kay, 'Geopolitical constraints and institutional innovation', p. 136. For the joint declaration on security signed at the Bishkek SCO summit in August 1999, which called for support for the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty to preserve the global strategic balance, see ITAR-TASS (Moscow), 25 Aug. 1999, in BBC, Summary of World Broadcasts: Former Soviet Union (henceforth SU) 3623 G/1, 26 Aug. 1999. An American application for observer status in the SCO remains under consideration.
74. For the first part of this process see Gregory Gleason, 'Policy dimensions of West Asian borders after the Shanghai accord', Asian Perspective 25: 1, 2001, pp. 107-31.
75. Marat Mamadshoyev, 'The Shanghai G-5 becomes the Shanghai Forum, Eurasia Insight, 7 July 2000, www.eurasianet.org.
76. Interview with senior Chinese foreign ministry official, 19 Nov. 2003.
77. Pan Guang, 'Shanghai Cooperation Organization in the context of the international antiterrorist campaign', Central Asia and the Caucasus 21: 3, 2003, p. 53.
78. Lt. Gen. Li Qianyuan, Commander of the Lanzhou Military Command, in Agence France-Presse, 'China flexes its military muscles in anti-terror exercises', 8 Aug. 2003. See also 'Launching the first war', Vremya novostei, 8 Aug. 2003, p. 2.
79. Lt. Gen. Li Qianyuan, Commander of the Lanzhou Military Command, in Agence France-Presse, 'China flexes its military muscles in anti-terror exercises', 8 Aug. 2003. See also 'Launching the first war', Vremya novostei, 8 Aug. 2003, p. 2.
80. 'Tashkent's new balancing act after the SCO summit', Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, Central Asia Report 3: 31, 12 Sept. 2003.
81. A draft SCO agreement on cooperation in counternarcotics was completed in January 2004. See the communiqué of the SCO foreign ministers' meeting on 15 Jan. 2004, http://mid.ru/ns-rasia.nsf.
82. For background see A. Kozhikhov, Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia (Almaty: Centre for Foreign Policy and Analysis, 2001).
83. BBC Monitoring, Inside Central Asia, no. 429, 3-9 June 2002; A. Kozhikhov, 'SVMDA: realii i perspektivy', Analytic (Almaty), 3: 2002, pp. 23-4.
84. BBC Monitoring, Inside Central Asia, no. 429, 3-9 June 2002; A. Kozhikhov, 'SVMDA: realii i perspektivy', Analytic (Almaty), 3: 2002, pp. 23-4.
85. See Farkhod Khamraev, 'Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia: prospects and potentials', Central Asia and the Caucasus 17: 5, 2002, pp. 54-8.
86. Barry Buzan and Ole Waever, Regions and powers: the structure of international security (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2003), pp. 423, 428-9. Of course, a security complex could be centred on conflictual dynamics which would provide no basis for security-related regionalism. But the findings of this study nevertheless confirm the particular influence of Russia in the evolving security subcomplex.
87. See Roy Allison, 'Central Asian military reform: national, regional and international influences', in Sally Cummings, ed., Oil, transition and security in Central Asia (London and New York: RoudedgeCurzon, 2003), pp. 219-33.
88. For assessments of this conflict potential see Central Asia: border disputes and conflict potential (Osh/Brussels: International Crisis Group Asia Report no. 33, April 2002); Roy Allison, 'Regional threat perceptions and risks of military conflict', in Richard M. Auty and India de Soya, eds, Energy, wealth, governance and welfare in the Caucasus and Central Asia (Seattle: University of Washington Press, forthcoming 2004).
89. For assessments of this conflict potential see Central Asia: border disputes and conflict potential (Osh/Brussels: International Crisis Group Asia Report no. 33, April 2002); Roy Allison, 'Regional threat perceptions and risks of military conflict', in Richard M. Auty and India de Soya, eds, Energy, wealth, governance and welfare in the Caucasus and Central Asia (Seattle: University of Washington Press, forthcoming 2004).