Understanding the effect of climatology on monthly rainfall amounts in Australia using Tweedie GLMs

International Journal of Climatology

Volumn 32, Issue 7, 2012, Pages 1006-1017

  Hasan, Md Masud ^a   Dunn, Peter K ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF THE SUNSHINE COAST   (Australia)

Author keywords

NINO 3.4; Rainfall modelling; SOI; SOI phase; Tweedie GLMs

Indexed keywords

NINO 3.4; RAINFALL MODELLING; SOI; SOI PHASE; TWEEDIE GLMS;

CLIMATOLOGY;

RAIN;

CLIMATOLOGY; NUMERICAL MODEL; PROBABILITY; RAINFALL;

AUSTRALIA;

EID: 84861963351     PISSN: 08998418     EISSN: 10970088     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/joc.2332     Document Type: Article

References (64)

1. Abtew W, Melesse AM, Dessalegne T. 2009. Spatial, inter and intra-annual variability of the upper Blue Nile basin rainfall. Hydrological Processes 23: 3075-3082.
2. Allan DM, Haan CT. 1975. Stochastic simulation of daily rainfall. Technical Report 82, Water Resources Institute: University of Kentucky.
3. Almeira GJ, Scian B. 2006. Some atmospheric and oceanic indices as predictors of seasonal rainfall in the Del Plata Basin of Argentina. Journal of Hydrology 329: 350-359.
4. Anderson DR. 2008. Model Based Inference in the Life Sciences. Springer: USA.
5. Buishand TA, Shabalova MV, Brandsma T. 2004. On the choice of the temporal aggregation level for statistical downscaling of precipitation. Journal of Climate 17: 1816-1827.
6. Chandler RE, Wheater HS. 2002. Analysis of rainfall variability using generalized linear models: a case study from the west of Ireland. Water Resources Research 38(10): 1192-1202.
7. Chapman T. 1998. Stochastic modelling of daily rainfall: The impacts of adjoining wet days on the distribution of rainfall amounts. Environmental Modelling and Software 13: 317-324.
8. Chowdhury RK, Beecham S. 2010. Australian rainfall trends and their relation to the southern oscillation index. Hydrological Processes 24: 504-514.
9. Das SC. 1955. The fitting of truncated Type III curves to daily rainfall data. Australian Journal of Physics 8: 298-304.
10. Diggle PJ, Ribeiro PJ Jr. 2007. Model-based Geostatistics, Springer: New York.
11. Dobson AJ, Barnett AG. 2008. An introduction to generalized linear models, Chapman and Hall: London.
12. Dunn PK. 2004. Occurrence and quantity of precipitation can be modelled simultaneously. International Journal of Climatology 24: 1231-1239.
13. Dunn PK. 2010. Tweedie: Tweedie exponential family models. R package version 2.0.5.
14. Dunn PK, Smyth GK. 2005. Series evaluation of Tweedie exponential dispersion model densities. Statistics and Computing 15: 267-280.
15. Dunn PK, Smyth GK. 2008. Evaluation of Tweedie exponential dispersion model densities by Fourier inversion. Statistics and Computing 18: 73-86.
16. Dunn PK, White N. 2005. Power-variance models for modelling rainfall. In Statistical Solution to Modern Problems: Proceedings of the 20th International Workshop on Statistical Modelling, Sydney; 149-156.
17. Durban M, Glasbey CA. 2001. Weather modelling using a multivariate latent Gaussian model. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 109: 187-201.
18. Everingham YL, Reason CJC. 2009. Interannual variability in rainfall and wet spell frequency during the New South Wales sugarcane harvest season. International Journal of Climatology, Published online in Wiley InterScience. DOI:10.1002/joc.2066.
19. Fernandes MVM, Schmidt AM, Migon HS. 2009. Modelling zero-inflated spatio-temporal processes. Statistical Modelling 9(1): 3-25.
20. Feuerverger A. 1979. On some methods of analysis for weather experiments. Biometrika 66: 655-658.
21. Giese BS, Compo GP, Slowey NC, Sardeshmukh PD, Carton JA, Ray S, Whitaker JS. 2010. The 1918/19 El Niño. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 91: 177-183.
22. Glasbey CA, Nevison IM. 1997. Rainfall modelling using a latent Gaussian variable. In Modelling Longitudinal and Spatially Correlated Data: Methods, Applications, and Future Directions, Springer: New York; pp. 233-242.
23. Gonzalez MH, Cariaga ML. 2009. An approach to seasonal forecasting of summer rainfall in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Atmosfera 22(3): 265-279.
24. Hamlin MJ, Rees DH. 1987. The use of rainfall forecasts in the optimal management of small-holder rice irrigation-a case study. Hydrological Sciences 32(1): 15-29.
25. Hammer GL, Holzworth DP, Stone RC. 1996. The value of skill in seasonal climate forecasting to wheat crop management in a region with high climatic variability. Australian Journal of Agricultural Research 47: 717-737.
26. Hansen JW, Ines AVM. 2005. Stochastic disaggregation of monthly rainfall data for crop simulation studies. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 131: 233-246.
27. Hansen JW, Mishra A, Rao KPC, Indeje M, Ngugi RK. 2009. Potential value of GCM-based seasonal rainfall forecasts for maize management in semi-arid Kenya. Agricultural Systems 101: 80-90.
28. Hasan MM, Dunn PK. 2010a. Two Tweedie distributions that are near-optimal for modelling monthly rainfall in Australia. International Journal of Climatology. Published online in Wiley InterScience. DOI:10.1002/joc.2162.
29. Hasan MM, Dunn PK. 2010b. A simple Poisson-gamma model for modelling rainfall occurrence and amount simultaneously. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 150: 1319-1330.
30. Jørgensen B. 1987. Exponential dispersion models (with discussion). Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B 49: 127-162.
31. Jørgensen B. 1997. The Theory of Dispersion Models, Chapman and Hall: London.
32. Lee CK, Shen SPS, Bailey B, North GR. 2009. Factor analysis for El Niño signals in sea surface temperature and precipitation. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 97: 195-203.
33. Lennox SM, Dunn PK, Power BD, Devoil P. 2004. A statistical distribution for modelling rainfall with promising applications in crop science, Technical report. In Fischer T, et al., New directions for a diverse planet: Proceedings of the 4th International Crop Science Congress: Brisbane, Australia.
34. Lewis F, Butler A, Gilbert L. 2010. A unified approach to model selection using the likelihood ratio test. Methods in Ecology & Evolution. DOI:10.1111/j.2041-210X.2010.00063.x.
35. Little MA, McSharry PE, Taylor JW. 2009. Generalized Linear Models for Site-Specific Density Forecasting of U.K. Daily Rainfall. Monthly Weather Review 137: 1029-1045.
36. Lorenzo MN, Iglesias I, Taboada JJ, Gesteira MG. 2010. Relationship between monthly rainfall in northwest Iberian Peninsula and North Atlantic sea surface temperature. International Journal of Climatology 30: 980-990, DOI:10.1002/joc.1959.
37. Loukas A, Vasiliades L. 2004. Probabilistic analysis of drought spatiotemporal characteristics in Thessaly region, Greece. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 4: 719-731.
38. McCown RL, Hammer GL, Hargreaves JNG, Holzworth DP, Freebairn DM. 1996. APSIM: a novel software system for model development, model testing, and simulation in agricultural research. Agricultural Systems 50: 255-271.
39. McCullagh P, Nelder JA.1989. Generalized Linear Models, 2nd edn, Chapman and Hall: London.
40. Meinke H, Ryley M. 1997. Effect of sorghum ergot on grain sorghum production: a preliminary analysis. Australian Journal of Agricultural Research 48: 1241-1247.
41. Meinke H, Stone RC, Hammer GL. 1996. SOI phases and climatic risk to peanut production: A case study for northern Australia. International Journal of Climatology 16: 783-789.
42. Meng Q, Zhang Y, Wang Z. 2007. Rainfall predictive models for building simulation II-rainfall estimation, Proceedings: Building simulation. Technical report, Tsinghua University: Beijing, China.
43. Mooley DA. 1973. Gamma distribution probability model for Asian summer monsoon monthly rainfall. Monthly Weather Review 101:(2): 160-176.
44. Piantadosi J, Boland JW, Howlett PG. 2008. Generating synthetic rainfall on various timescales-daily, monthly and yearly. Environmental Modeling and Assessment 14: 431-438.
45. Power S, Tseitkin F, Torok S, Lavery B, Dahni R, McAvaney B. 1997. Australian temperature, Australian rainfall and the Southern Oscillation, 1910-1992: coherent variability and recent changes. Australian Meteorological Magazine 47: 85-101.
46. Quinn WH, Burt WV. 1972. Use of the southern oscillation in weather prediction. Journal of Applied Meteorology 11: 616-628.
47. R Development Core Team. 2009. R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing, R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria. ISBN: 3-900051-07-0.
48. Richardson CW, Wright DA. 1984. WGEN: A model for generating daily weather variables. Technical Report 8, United States Department of Agriculture, Agriculture Research Service.
49. Rosenberg K, Boland JW, Howlett PG. 2004. Simulation of monthly rainfall totals. ANZIAM Journal 46: 85-104.
50. Shui LT, Haque A. 2004. Stochastic Rainfall Model for Irrigation Projects. Pertanika Journal of Science and Technology 12(1): 137-147.
51. Simmonds I, Hope P. 1997. Persistence characteristics of Australian rainfall anomalies. International Journal of Climatology 17: 597-613.
52. Smyth GK. 1996. Regression modelling of quantity data with exact zeroes. Paper presented at proceedings of the second Australia-Japan workshop on stochastic models in engineering, technology and management. Technical report, Technology Management Centre, University of Queensland.
53. Smyth GK (with contributions from Hu Y and Dunn PK). 2009. statmod: Statistical Modeling. R package version 1.4.1.
54. Stern RD, Coe R. 1984. A model fitting analysis of daily rainfall data (with discussion). Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A 147: 1-34.
55. Stone RC, Auliciems A. 1992. SOI phase relationships with rainfall in eastern Australia. International Journal of Climatology 12: 625-636.
56. Stone RC, Hammer GL, Marcussen T. 1996a. Prediction of global rainfall probabilities using phases of the Southern Oscillation Index. Nature 384: 252-255.
57. Stone RC, McKeon GM. 1993. Prospects for using weather prediction to reduce pasture establishment risk. Tropical Grasslands 27: 406-413.
58. Stone RC, Nicholls N, Hammer G. 1996b. Frost in northeast Australia: Trends and influences of phases of the southern oscillation. Journal of Climate 9(8): 1896-1909.
59. Troup AJ. 1965. The Southern Oscillation. Quarterly Journal of Royal Meteorological Society 91: 490-506.
60. Tweedie MCK. 1984. An index which distinguishes between some important exponential families. Statistics: Applications and new directions. Proceedings of the Indian Statistical Institute Golden Jubilee International Conference. Technical report, Indian Statistical Institute: Calcutta.
61. Wilks DS. 1990. Maximum likelihood estimation for the gamma distribution using data containing zeros. Journal of Climate 3: 1495-1501.
62. Wilks DS. 1999. Interannual variability and extreme-value characteristics of several stochastic daily precipitation models. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 93: 153-169.
63. Willcocks JR, Stone RC. 2000. Frost risk in eastern Australia and the influence of the Southern Oscillation. DPI Information Series QI00001. Queensland Department of Primary Industries: Toowoomba.
64. Wu R, Kirtman BP. 2007. Roles of the Indian Ocean in the Australian summer monsoon-ENSO relationship. Journal of Climate 20: 4768-4788.