Impact of the modulated annual cycle and intraseasonal oscillation on daily-to-interannual rainfall variability across monsoonal India

Climate Dynamics

Volumn 38, Issue 11-12, 2012, Pages 2409-2435

  Moron, Vincent ^a,b,c   Robertson, Andrew W ^c   Ghil, Michael ^d,e  

^a AIX MARSEILLE UNIVERSITY   (France)

^b INSTITUT UNIVERSITAIRE DE FRANCE   (France)

^c Earth Institute   (United States)

^d UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

^e ECOLE NORMALE SUPÉRIEURE   (France)

Author keywords

Break; Hidden state; Indian monsoon; Markov chain; Onset; Seasonal rainfall; Singular spectrum analysis

Indexed keywords

ANNUAL CYCLE; ANNUAL VARIATION; ASYMMETRY; CLIMATE OSCILLATION; LONGWAVE RADIATION; MARKOV CHAIN; MONSOON; PRECIPITATION (CLIMATOLOGY); RAINFALL; SEASONAL VARIATION; SPECTRAL ANALYSIS; SUMMER; WIND;

INDIA;

EID: 84861822451     PISSN: 09307575     EISSN: 14320894     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-011-1253-4     Document Type: Article

References (113)

1. Ajaya Mohan RS, Goswami BN (2000) A common spatial mode for intra-seasonal and inter-annual variation and predictability of the Indian summer monsoon. Curr Sci 79: 1106-1111.
2. Ajaya Mohan RS, Goswami BN (2007) Dependence of simulation of boreal summer tropical intraseasonal oscillations on the simulation of seasonal mean. J Atmos Sci 64: 460-478.
3. Ajaya Mohan RS, Annamalai H, Luo JJ, Hafner J, Yamagata T (2010) Poleward propagation of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillations in a coupled model: role of internal processes. Clim Dyn. doi 10. 1007/s00382-010-0839-6./NCAR.
4. Annamalai H, Slingo JM (2001) Active/break cycles: diagnosis of the intraseasonal variability of the Asian summer monsoon. Clim Dyn 18: 85-102.
5. Annamalai H, Slingo JM, Sperber KR, Hodges K (1999) The mean evolution and variability of the Asian summer monsoon: comparison of ECMWF and NCEP reanalyses. Mon Weather Rev 127: 1157-1186.
6. Bhanu Kumar OSRU, Ramalingeswara Rao S, Ranganathan S, Raju SS (2010) Role of Intra-seasonal oscillations on Monsoon floods and droughts over India. Asia-Pacific J Atmos Sci 46: 21-28.
7. Bhat GS (2006) The Indian drought of 2002-a subseasonal phenomenon? Quart J R Meteo Soc 132: 2583-2602.
8. Brankovic C, Palmer TN (2000) Seasonal skill and predictability of ECWMF PROVOST ensembles. Quart J R Meteo Soc 126: 2035-2067.
9. Chang CP, Wang Z, McBride J, Liu CH (2005) Annual cycle of Southeast Asia-Maritime Continent rainfall and the asymmetric monsoon transition. J Clim 18: 287-301.
10. Chatterjee P, Goswami BN (2004) Structure, genesis and scale selection of the tropical qausi-biweekly mode. Quart J R Meteo Soc 130: 1171-1194.
11. Chen TC, Chen JM (1993) The 10-20 day mode of the 1979 Indian monsoon; its relation with the time variation of monsoon rainfall. Mon Weather Rev 121: 2465-2482.
12. Dempster AP, Laird NM, Rubin DR (1977) Maximum Likelihood from incomplete data via the EM algorithm. J R Stat Soc B39: 1-38.
13. Fennessy MJ, Kinter JL III, Kirtman B, Marx L, Nigma S, Schneider E, Shukla J, Straus D, Vernekar A, Xue Y, Zhou J (1994) The simulated Indian monsoon: a GCM sensivity study. J Clim 7: 33-43.
14. Ferranti L, Slingo JM, Palmer TN, Hoskins BJ (1997) Relations between interannual and intraseasonal monsoon variability as diagnosed from AMIP integrations. Quart J R Meteo Soc 123: 1323-1357.
15. Forney GD Jr (1978) The Viterbi algorithm. Proc IEEE 61: 268-278.
16. Fujinami H, Hatsuzuka D, Yasunari T, Hayashi T, Terao T, Murata F, Kiguchi M, Yamane Y, Matsumoto J, Nazrul Islam M, Habib A (2011) Characteristic intraseasonal oscillation of rainfall and its effect on interannual variability over Bangladesh during boreal summer. Int J Climatol 31: 1192-1204. doi: 10. 1002/joc. 2146.
17. Gadgil S (2003) The Indian monsoon and its variability. Ann Rev Planet Sci 31: 429-467.
18. Gadgil S, Joseph PV (2003) On breaks of the Indian monsoon. Proc Ind Acad Sci (Earth Planet Sci) 112: 529-558.
19. Gadgil S, Sajani S (1998) Monsoon precipitation in the AMIP runs. Clim Dyn 14: 659-689.
20. Ghahramani Z (2001) An introduction to hidden Markov models and Bayesian networks. Int J Pattern Recogn Art Intell 15: 9-42. doi: 10. 1142/S0218001401000836.
21. Ghil M, Jiang N (1998) Recent forecast skill for the El Niño/Southern oscillation. Geophys Res Lett 25: 171-174.
22. Ghil M, Robertson AW (2002) Waves vs. particles in the atmosphere's phase space: a pathway to long-range forecasting? Proc Natl Acad Sci 99(Suppl. 1): 2493-2500.
23. Ghil M, Allen MR, Dettinger MD, Ide K, Kondrashov D, Mann ME, Robertson AW, Saunders A, Tian Y, Varadi F, Yiou P (2002) Advanced spectral methods for climatic time series. Rev Geophys 40: 1003. doi: 10. 1029/2000RG000092.
24. Goddard L, Barnston AG, Mason SJ (2003) Evaluation of the IRI's "Net assessment" seasonal climate forecasts: 1997-2001. Bull Am Meteo Soc 84: 1761-1781.
25. Goswami BN (2005) South Asian monsoon. In: Lau WKM, Walliser DE (eds) Intraseasonal variability in the atmosphere-ocean climate system. Springer, Berlin, pp 21-61.
26. Goswami BN, Ajaya Mohan RS (2001) Intraseasonal oscillations and interannual variability of the Indian summer monsoon. J Clim 14: 1180-1196.
27. Goswami BN, Sengupta D, Suresh Kumar G (1998) Intraseasonal oscillations and interannual variability of surface winds over the Indian monsoon region. Proc Ind Acad Sci 107: 45-64.
28. Goswami BN, Xavier PK, Sengupta D (2003) Clustering of synoptic activity by Indian monsoon intraseasonal oscillations. Geophys Res Lett 30, doi 10. 1029/2002GL016734.
29. Goswami BN, Wu G, Yasunari T (2006) The annual cycle, intraseasonal oscillations, and roadblock to seasonal predictability of the Asian summer monsoon. J Clim 19: 5078-5099.
30. Greene AM, Robertson AW, Kirshner S (2008) Analysis of Indian monsoon daily rainfall on subseasonal to multidecadal time scales using a Hidden Markov Model. Quart J R Meteo Soc 134: 875-887.
31. Greene AM, Robertson AW, Smyth P, Triglia S (2011) Downscaling projections of Indian monsoon rainfall using a non-homogeneous hidden Markov model. Quart J R Meteo Soc 137: 347-359.
32. Hartmann DL, Michelsen ML (1989) Intraseasonal periodicities in Indian rainfall. J Atmos Sci 46: 2838-2862.
33. Hoyos CD, Webster PJ (2007) The role of intraseasonal variability in the nature of Asian monsoon precipitation. J Clim 20: 4402-4424.
34. Hughes JP, Guttorp P (1994) A class of stochastic models for relating synoptic atmospheric patterns to regional hydrologic phenomena. Water Res Res 30: 1535-1546.
35. Janicot S, Moron V, Fontaine B (1996) ENSO and Sahel droughts. Geophys Res Lett 23: 515-518.
36. Jian X, Li T, Wang B (2003) Structures and mechanisms of the northward propagating boreal summer intraseasonal oscillations. J Clim 17: 1022-1039.
37. Joseph PV, Simon A, Nair VG, Thomas A (2004) Intra-seasonal oscillation (ISO) of south Kerala rainfall during the summer monsoons of 1901-1995. Proc Indian Acad Sci 113: 139-150.
38. Joseph S, Sahai AK, Goswami BN (2010) Boreal summer intraseasonal oscillations and seasonal Indian monsoon prediction in DEMETER coupled models. Clim Dyn, doi 10. 1007/s00382-009-0635-3.
39. Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M, Kistler R, Collins W, Deaven D, Gandin L, Iredell M, Saha S, White G, Woollen J, Zhu Y, Leetmaa A, Reynolds R, Chelliah M, Ebisuzaki W, Higgins W, Janowiak J, Mo KC, Ropelewski C, Wang J, Jenne R, Joseph D (1996) The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull Am Meteo Soc 77: 437-471.
40. Kang IS, Ho CH, Lim YK, Lau KM (1999) Principal modes of climatological seasonal and intraseasonal variations of the Asian summer monsoon. Mon Weather Rev 127: 322-340.
41. Keppenne CL, Ghil M (1992) Adaptive filtering and prediction of the Southern Oscillation index. J Geophys Res 97: 20449-20454.
42. Klingaman NP, Weller H, Slingo JM, Inness PM (2008) The intraseasonal variability of the Indian monsoon using TMI sea surface temperatures and ECMWF reanalysis. J Clim 21: 2519-2538.
43. Kripalani RH, Kulkarni A, Sabade SS, Revadekar JV, Patwardhan SK, Kulkarni JR (2004) Intraseasonal oscillations during monsoon 2002 and 2003. Curr Sci 87: 325-331.
44. Krishna Kumar K, Soman MK MK, Rupa Kumar K (1995) Seasonal forecasting of Indian summer rainfall. Weather 50: 449-467.
45. Krishna Kumar K, Rupa Kumar K, Ashrit RG, Deshpande NR, Hansen JW (2004) Climate impacts on Indian agriculture. Int J Climatol 24: 1375-1393.
46. Krishnamurthy V, Shukla J (2000) Intraseasonal and interannual variability of rainfall over India. J Clim 13: 4366-4377.
47. Krishnamurthy V, Shukla J (2007) Intraseasonal and seasonally persisting patterns of Indian monsoon rainfall. J Clim 20: 3-20.
48. Krishnamurthy V, Shukla J (2008) Seasonal persistence and propagation of intraseasonal patterns over the Indian monsoon region. Clim Dyn 30: 353-369.
49. Krishnamurti TN, Balme HN (1976) Oscillations of a monsoon system. Part I. Observational aspects. J Atmos Sci 33: 1937-1954.
50. Krishnamurti TN, Ardanuy P, Ramanathan Y, Pasch R (1981) On the onset vortex of the summer monsoon. Mon Weather Rev 109: 344-363.
51. Krishnamurti TN, Bedi HS, Subramaniam M (1989) The summer monsoon of 1987. J Clim 2: 321-340.
52. Krishnan R, Venkatesan C (1996) Mechanisms of low frequency intraseasonal oscillations of the Indian summer monsoon. Meteo Atmos Phys 62: 101-128.
53. Kulkarni A, Sabade SS, Kripilani RH (2009) Spatial variability of intra-seasonal oscillations during extreme Indian monsoons. Int J Climatol 29: 1945-1955. doi: 10. 1002/joc. 1844.
54. Lau KM, Chan PH (1986) Aspects of 30-50 day oscillation during summer as inferred from outgoing longwave radiation. Mon Weather Rev 114: 1354-1369.
55. Lawrence DM, Webster PJ (2001) Interannual variations of the intraseasonal oscillation in the South Asian summer monsoon region. J Clim 14: 2910-2922.
56. Lawrence DM, Webster PJ (2002) The boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation; relationship between northward and eastward movement of convection. J Atmos Sci 59: 1593-1606.
57. Liebmann B, Smith CA (1996) Description of a complete (interpolated) outgoing longwave radiation dataset. Bull Am Meteo Soc 77: 1275-1277.
58. Meehl G (1987) The annual cycle and interannual variability in the tropical Pacific and Indian ocean regions. Mon Weather Rev 115: 27-50.
59. Mitra AK, Stefanova L, Vijaya Kumar TSV, Krishnamurti TN (2005) Seasonal prediction for the Indian monsoon region with FSU ocean-atmosphere coupled model: model mean and 2002 anomalous drought. Pure Appl Geophys 162: 1431-1454.
60. Mohapatra M, Mohanty UC (2008) Peridiodicity in intraseasonal variation of summer monsoon rainfall over Orissa, India in relation with synoptic disturbances. Meteorol Atmos Phys 99: 25-42.
61. Mooley DA, Parthasarathy B (1984) Fluctuations in all-India summer monsoon rainfall during 1871-1978. Clim Change 6: 287-301.
62. Moron V, Vautard R, Ghil M (1998) Trends, decadal and inter-annual variability in global sea surface temperature fields. Clim Dyn 14: 545-569.
63. Moron V, Robertson AW, Ward MN (2006) Seasonal predictability and spatial coherence of rainfall characteristics in the tropical setting of Senegal. Mon Weather Rev 134: 3248-3262.
64. Moron V, Robertson AW, Ward MN, Camberlin P (2007) Spatial coherence of tropical rainfall at the regional scale. J Clim 20: 5244-5263.
65. Moron V, Robertson AW, Boer R (2009) Spatial coherence and seasonal predictability of monsoon onset over Indonesia. J Clim 22: 840-850.
66. Munot AA, Kothawale DR (2000) Intra-seasonal inter-annual and decadal scale variability in summer monsoon rainfall over India. Int J Climatol 20: 1387-1400.
67. Murakami T (1976) Analysis of summer monsoon fluctuations over India. J Meteor Soc Jpn 54: 15-31.
68. Murakami T (1980) Empirical orthogonal function analysis of Satellite-Observed outgoing longwave radiation during summer. Mon Weather Rev 108: 205-222.
69. Murakami T, Nakazawa T (1985) Tropical 45 day oscillations during the 1979 Northern Hemisphere summer. J Atmos Sci 42: 1107-1122.
70. Pai DS, Bhate J, Sreejith OP, Hatwar HR (2011) Impact of MJO on the intraseasonal variation of summer monsoon rainfall over India. Clim Dyn 36: 41-55. doi: 10. 1007/s00382-009-0634-4.
71. Parthasarathy B, Rupa Kumar K, Munot AA (1993) Homogenous Indian monsoon rainfall: variability and prediction. Proc Ind Acad Sci (Earth Plan Sci) 102: 121-155.
72. Parthasarathy B, Munot AA, Kothawale DK (1995) All-India monthly and seasonal rainfall series: 1871-1993. Theor App Climatol 49: 217-224.
73. Pattanaik DR, Kumar A (2010) Prediction of summer monsoon rainfall over India using the NCEP climate forecast system. Clim Dyn 4: 557-572. doi: 10. 1007/s00382-009-0648-y.
74. Plaut G, Vautard R (1994) Spells of low-frequency oscillations and weather regimes in the Northern Hemisphere. J Atmos Sci 51: 210-236.
75. Prasad KD, Singh SV (1996) Forecasting the spatial variability of the Indian monsoon rainfall using canonical correlation. Int J Climatol 16: 1379-1390.
76. Preethi B, Kripalani RH, Krishna Kumar K (2010) Indian summer monsoon rainfall variability in global ocean-atmospheric models. Clim Dyn 35: 1521-1533. doi: 10. 1007/s00382-009-0657-x.
77. Qi YJ, Zhang RH, Li T, Wen M (2009) Impacts of intraseasonal oscillation in the onset and interannual variation of the Indian summer monsoon. Chin Sci Bull 54: 880-884.
78. Rajeevan M, Bhate J, Kale J, Lal B (2005) Development of a High resolution daily gridded rainfall data for the Indian region. Met Monograph Climatology no. 22/2005. India Meteorological Department.
79. Rajeevan M, Bhate J, Kale JD, Lal B (2006) A high resolution daily gridded rainfall for the Indian region: analysis of break and active monsoon spells. Curr Sci 91: 296-306.
80. Rajeevan M, Gadgil S, Bhate J (2008) Active and break spells of the Indian summer monsoon, NCC research report no. 7, India Meteorological Department.
81. Robertson AW, Kirshner S, Smyth P (2004) Downscaling of daily rainfall occurrence over NorthEast Brazil using a Hidden Markov Model. J Clim 17: 4407-4424.
82. Robertson AW, Kirshner S, Smyth P, Charles SP, Bates BC (2006) Subseasonal-to-interdecadal variability of the Australian monsoon over North Queensland. Quart J R Meteo Soc 132: 519-542.
83. Robertson AW, Moron V, Swarinoto Y (2009) Seasonal predictability of daily rainfall statistics over Indramayu district, Indonesia. Int J Climatol 29: 1449-1462.
84. Saith N, Slingo J (2006) The role of the Madden-Julian oscillation in the El Nino and Indian drought of 2002. Int J Climatol 26: 1361-1378.
85. Sajani S, Naseema Beegum S, Krishna Moorthy K (2007) The role of low-frequency intraseasonal oscillations in the anomalous Indian summer monsoon rainfall of 2002. J Earth Syst Sci 116: 149-157.
86. Sanjeeva Rao P, Sikka DR (2005) Intraseasonal variability of the summer monsoon over the North Indian ocean as revealed by the BOBMEX and ARMEX field programs. Pure Appl Geophys 162: 1481-1510.
87. Sengupta DB, Goswami BN, Senan R (2001) Coherent intraseasonal oscillations of ocean and atmosphere during the Asian summer monsoon. Geophys Res Lett 28: 4127-4130.
88. Sikka DR, Gadgil S (1980) On the maximum cloud zone and the ITCZ over India longitude during the Southwest monsoon. Mon Weather Rev 108: 1840-1853.
89. Singh SV, Kripalani RH (1986) Application of extended empirical orthogonal function analysis to interrelationships and sequential evolution of monsoon fields. Mon Weather Rev 114: 1603-1610.
90. Singh SV, Kripilani RH (1985) The South to North progression of rainfall anomalies across India during the summer monsoon season. Pure Appl Geophys 123: 624-637.
91. Singh SV, Kripilani RH, Sikka DR (1992) Inter-annual variability of the Madden-Julian oscillations in Indian summer monsoon rainfall. J Clim 5: 973-978.
92. Sivakumar MVK (1988) Predicting rainy season potential from the onset of rains in southern Sahelian and Sudanian climatic zones of West Africa. Agric For Meteo 42: 295-305.
93. Slingo J, Annamalai H (2000) The El Niño of the century and the response of the Indian Summer Monsoon. Mon Weather Rev 128: 1778-1787.
94. Sperber KR, Annamalai H (2008) Coupled model simulations of boreal summer intraseasonal (30-50 day) variability, Part 1: systematic errors and caution on use of metrics. Clim Dyn 31: 345-372.
95. Sperber KR, Slingo J, Annamalai H (2000) Predictability and the relationship between subseasonal and interannual variability during the Asian summer monsoon. Quart J R Meteo Soc 126: 2545-2574.
96. Vautard R, Yiou P, Ghil M (1992) Singular spectrum analysis: a toolkit for short noisy chaotic signals. Physica D 58: 95-126.
97. Vecchi GA, Harrison DE (2002) Monsoon breaks and subseasonal sea surface temperature variability in the Bay of Bengal. J Clim 15: 1485-1493.
98. Vernekar AD, Thapliyal V, Kripalani RH, Singh SV, Kirtman B (1993) Global structure of the Madden-Julian oscillations during two recent contrasting summer monsoon seasons over India. Meteo Atmos Phys 52: 37-47.
99. Vitart F, Molteni F (2009) Dynamical extended-range prediction of early monsoon rainfall over India. Mon Weather Rev 137: 1480-1492.
100. Vitart F, Molteni F, Stockdale T, Ferranti L, Balmaseda M (2008) Predictions of tropical rainfall with the ECMWF seasonal and monthly forecast systems. In: Proceedings of workshop on ensemble prediction, Reading, United Kingdom, ECMWF. [Available online at http://www. ecmwf. int/publications/library/ecpublications/_pdf/workshop/2007/Ensemble_prediction/Molteni. pdf].
101. Walliser DE, Stern W, Schubert S, Lau KM (2003) Dynamic predictability of intraseasonal variability associated with the Asian summer monsoon. Quart J R Meteo Soc 129: 2897-2925.
102. Wang B, LinHo (2002) Rainy season of the Asian-Pacific summer monsoon. J Clim 15: 386-398.
103. Wang B, Xie X (1997) A model for the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation. J Atmos Sci 54: 71-86.
104. Wang B, Xu XH (1997) Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon singularities and climatological intraseasonal oscillation. J Clim 10: 1071-1085.
105. Webster PJ, Yang S (1992) Monsoon and ENSO: selectively interactive systems. Quart J R Meteo Soc 118: 877-920.
106. Webster PJ, Magana VO, Palmer TN, Shukla J, Tomas RA, Yanai M, Yasunari T (1998) Monsoons: processes, predictability and the prospects for prediction. J Geophys Res 103: 14451-14510.
107. Wheeler MC, Hendon HH (2004) An all-season real-time multivariate MJO index: development of an index for monitoring and prediction. Mon Weather Rev 132: 1917-1932.
108. Wu Z, Schneider EK, Kirtman B, Sarachik ES, Huang NE, Tucker CJ (2008) The modulated annual cycle: an alternative reference frame for climate anomalies. Clim Dyn 31: 823-841.
109. Xavier PK, Marzin C, Goswami BN (2007) An objective definition of the Indian summer monsoon season and a new perspective of the ENSO-monsoon relationship. Quart J R Meteo Soc 133: 749-764. doi: 10. 1002/qj. 45.
110. Yasunari T (1979) Cloudiness fluctuations associated with the northern hemisphere summer season. J Meteo Soc Jpn 57: 227-242.
111. Yasunari T (1980) A quasi-stationary appearance of 30 to 40 day period in the cloudiness fluctuations during the summer monsoon over India. J Meteo Soc Jpn 58: 225-229.
112. Yasunari T (1981) Structure of an Indian summer monsoon system with around 40-day period. J Meteo Soc Jpn 59: 336-354.
113. Yoo JH, Robertson AW, Kang IS (2010) Analysis of intraseasonal and interannual variability of the Asian monsoon using a hidden Markov model. J Clim 23: 5498-5516.