Housing price bubbles in Beijing and Shanghai?: A multi-indicator analysis

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis

Volumn 3, Issue 1, 2010, Pages 17-37

  Hou, Yongzhou ^a  

^a BEIJING NORMAL UNIVERSITY   (China)

Author keywords

China; Financial analysis; Housing; Prices

Indexed keywords

EID: 84861810776     PISSN: 17538270     EISSN: 17538289     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1108/17538271011027050     Document Type: Article

References (43)

1. Allen, F. and Gale, D. (2000), “Bubbles and crises”, Economic Journal, Vol. 110, pp. 236-55.
2. Anderson, D.R., Sweeney, D.J. and Williams, T.A. (2002), Statistics for Business and Economics, CITIC Publishing House, Beijing.
3. Blanchard, O. and Watson, M. (1982), “Bubbles, rational expectations and financial markets”, NBER working paper 945, July.
4. Brissimis, S.N. and Vlassopoulos, T. (2008), “The interaction between mortgage financing and housing prices in Greece”, Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Vol. 39, pp. 146-64.
5. Case, K.E. and Shiller, R.J. (2003a), “Forecasting prices and excess returns in the housing markets”, Journal of the American Real Estate & Urban Economics Association, Vol. 18 No. 3, pp. 253-73.
6. Case, K.E. and Shiller, R.J. (2003b), “Is there a bubble in the housing market”, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Vol. 2, pp. 299-342.
7. Chan, H.L. et al. (2001), “Detecting rational bubbles in the residential housing markets of Hong Kong”, Economic Modelling, Vol. 18, pp. 61-73.
8. Deng, Y., Zhend, D. and Liu, C. (2005), “An early assessment of residential mortgage performance in China”, Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Vol. 31 No. 2, pp. 117-36.
9. Dipasquale, D. and Wheaton, W.C. (1994), “Housing market dynamics and the future of housing prices”, Journal of Urban Economics, Vol. 35, pp. 1-27.
10. Dipasquale, D. and Wheaton, W.C. (1996), Urban Economics and Real Estate Markets, Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ, p. 149.
11. Flood, R.P. and Hodrick, R.J. (1990), “On testing for speculative bubbles”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 4 No. 2, pp. 85-101.
12. Garber, P.M. (1990), “Famous first bubbles”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 4, pp. 35-54.
13. Gerlach, S. and Peng, W. (2005), “Bank lending and property prices in Hong Kong”, Journal of Banking and Finance, Vol. 29, pp. 461-81.
14. Glaeser, E.L., Gyourko, J. and Saiz, A. (2008), “Housing supply and housing bubbles”, Journal of Urban Economics, Vol. 64, pp. 198-217.
15. Glindro, E.I., Subhanij, T., Szeto, J. and Zhu, H. (2008), “Determinants of house prices in nine Asia-Pacific economies”, Bank of International Settlements Working Papers, No. 263, October.
16. Goodman, A.C. and Thibodeau, T.G. (2008), “Where are the speculative bubbles in US housing markets?”, Journal of Housing Economics, Vol. 17, pp. 117-37.
17. Guttentag, J.M. and Herring, R.J. (1986), “Disaster myopia in international banking”, Princeton University Essays in International Finance, No. 164, September.
18. Gwartney, J.D. et al. (2004), Economics: Private and Public Choice (Chinese Edition), CITIC Publishing House, Beijing, p. 369.
19. Hou, Y. (2008), “An empirical analysis of regional housing markets in urban China”, European Network of Housing Research Conference (ENHR) working paper, February, Vienna.
20. Hui, E.C.M. and Shen, Y. (2006), “Housing price bubbles in Hong Kong, Beijing and Shanghai: A comparative study”, Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Vol. 33, pp. 299-327.
21. Kim, K.H. (2004), “Housing and the Korean economy”, Journal of Housing Economics, Vol. 13, pp. 321-41.
22. Kim, K.H. and Suh, S.H. (1993), “Speculation and price bubbles in the Korean and Japanese real estate markets”, Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Vol. 6, pp. 73-87.
23. Kindleberger, C.P. (2008), “Bubbles in history”, in Durlauf, S.N. and Blume, L.E. (Eds.), The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, Palgrave Macmillan, 2nd ed., 5 October 2009.
24. Lind, H. (2009), “Price bubbles in housing market: concept, theory and indicators”, International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, Vol. 2, pp. 78-90.
25. Liu, H. and Shen, Y. (2004), “Analysis of housing price changes in China”, Chinese Building Economics, Vol. 9, pp. 43-7.
26. Major, C. IV, Michael, L. and Vandell, K.D. (2008), “Subprime lending and the housing bubble: Tail wags dog?”, Journal of Housing Economics, Vol. 17, pp. 272-90.
27. Malpezzi, S. and Maclennan, D. (2001), “The long-run price elasticity of supply of new residential construction in the United States and the United Kingdom”, Journal of Housing Economics, Vol. 10, pp. 278-306.
28. Malpezzi, S. and Wachter, S.M. (2005), “The role of speculation in real estate cycles”, Journal of Real Estate Literature, Vol. 13, pp. 143-64.
29. Mikhed, V. and Zemcik, P. (2009), “Testing for bubbles in housing markets: A panel data approach”, Journal of Real Estate Financial Economics, Vol. 38, pp. 366-86.
30. Mills, E.S. and Hamilton, B.W. (1994), Urban Economics, 5th ed., Harper Collins, New York, NY, Chapter 10.
31. Muth, J.F. (1961), “Rational expectations and the theory of price movements”, Econometica, Vol. 29, p. 316.
32. Oikarinen, E. (2009), “Household borrowing and metropolitan housing price dynamics-empirical evidence from Helsinki”, Journal of Housing Economics, Vol. 18, pp. 126-39.
33. Potepan, M.J. (1996), “Explaining intermetropolitan variation in housing prices, rents and land prices”, Real Estate Economics, Vol. 24 No. 2, pp. 219-45.
34. Quigley, J.M. (2001), “Real estate and the Asian crisis”, Journal of Housing Economics, Vol. 10, pp. 129-61.
35. Renaud, B. (1995), “The 1985-1994 global real estate cycle: Its causes and consequences”, Policy Research Working Paper of The World Bank, May.
36. Shiller, R.J. (2007), “Low interest rates and high asset prices: An interpretation in terms of changing popular models”, Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper 10, No. 1632.
37. Smith, M. and Smith, G. (2006), “Bubble, bubble, where is the housing bubble?”, Brookings Panel on Economic Activity, March.
38. Stiglitz, J.E. (1990), “Symposium on bubbles”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 4, pp. 13-18.
39. Wheaton, W.C. (1999), “Real estate cycles: some fundamentals”, Real Estate Economics, Vol. 27 No. 2, pp. 209-30.
40. Wheaton, W.C. and Nechayev, G. (2008), “The 1998-2005 housing ‘bubble’ and the current ‘correction’: What's different this time”, Journal of Real Estate Research, Vol. 30 No. 1, pp. 1-26.
41. Xiao, Q. and Tan, G.R. (2007), “Signal extraction with Kalman filter: a study of the Hong Kong property price bubbles”, Journal of Urban Studies, Vol. 44 No. 4, pp. 865-88.
42. Carey, S.M. (1990), “Feeding the fad: the federal land banks, land market efficiency, and the farm credit crisis”, Dissertation. University of California at Berkeley.
43. Herring, G.J.M. (1986), “Financial innovation to stabilize credit flow to developing countries”, Studies in Banking and Finance, Vol. 3, pp. 263-304.