Multi-scale harmonic model for solar and climate cyclical variation throughout the Holocene based on Jupiter-Saturn tidal frequencies plus the 11-year solar dynamo cycle

Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics

Volumn 80, Issue , 2012, Pages 296-311

  Scafetta, Nicola ^a  

^a DUKE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

Coupling between planetary tidal forcing and solar dynamo cycle; Harmonic model for solar and climate variation at decadal to millennial time scales; Planetary theory of solar variation; Reconstruction and forecast of solar and climate dynamics during the Holocene

Indexed keywords

20TH CENTURY; CLIMATE CYCLE; CLIMATE DATA; CLIMATE DYNAMICS; CLIMATE OSCILLATION; CLIMATE RECORD; CLIMATE VARIATION; COSMOGENIC; CYCLICAL VARIATION; GLOBAL SURFACE TEMPERATURE; HARMONIC CONSTITUENTS; HARMONIC MODEL; HINDCASTS; HOLOCENES; JUPITERS; MODEL-BASED OPC; MULTISCALES; NORTHERN HEMISPHERES; PLANETARY MOTION; PROXY MODEL; QUASI-PERIODIC; SATELLITE COMPOSITE; SOLAR ACTIVITY; SOLAR CYCLE LENGTHS; SOLAR DYNAMO; SOLAR MAXIMA; SOLAR MINIMA; SOLAR VARIATIONS; TEMPERATURE RECONSTRUCTION; TIDAL FORCING; TIDAL FREQUENCIES;

ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE; ELECTRIC GENERATORS; FORECASTING; FREQUENCY BANDS; HARMONIC ANALYSIS; INTERACTIVE DEVICES; INTERPLANETARY FLIGHT; SOLAR ENERGY; SOLAR RADIATION; SOLAR SYSTEM; UPPER ATMOSPHERE;

CLIMATE MODELS;

EID: 84860995058     PISSN: 13646826     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.jastp.2012.02.016     Document Type: Article

References (73)

1. Bard E., Raisbeck G., Yiou F., Jouzel J. Solar irradiance during the last 1200 years based on cosmogenic nuclides. Tellus 2000, 52B:985-992.
2. Bendandi R. Un Principio Fondamentale dell'Universo 1931, S.T.E., Faenza, Italy.
3. Bender M., Sowers T., Brook E. Gases in ice cores. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 1997, 94(16):8343-8349.
4. Brekke P. Our Explosive Sun 2012, Springer, New York.
5. Bigg E.K. Influence of the planet Mercury on sunspots. Astronomical Journal 1967, 72:463-466.
6. Bond G., Kromer B., Beer J., Muscheler R., Evans M.N., Showers W., Hoffmann S., Lotti-Bond R., Hajdas I., Bonani G. Persistent solar influence on North Atlantic climate during the holocene. Science 2001, 294:2130-2136.
7. Charbonneau P. The rise and fall of the first solar cycle model. Journal for the History of Astronomy 2002, 33(4):351-372.
8. Charvátová I. On the relation between solar motion and the long term variability of the solar activity. Studia Geophysica et Geodetica 1989, 33:230-240.
9. Charvátová I. Can origin of the 2400-year cycle of solar activity be caused by solar inertial motion?. Annales de Geophysique 2000, 18:399-405.
10. Charvátová I. Long-term predictive assessments of solar and geomagnetic activities made on the basis of the close similarity between the solar inertial motions in the intervals 1840-1905 and 1980-2045. New Astronomy 2009, 14:25-30.
11. Currie R.G. Fine structure in the sunspot spectrum-2 to 70 Years. Astrophysics and Space Science 1973, 20(2):509-518.
12. Courtillot V., Le Mouël J.L., Mayaud P.N. Maximum entropy spectral analysis of the geomagnetic activity index aa over a 107-year interval. Journal of Geophysics Research 1977, 82(19):2641-2649.
13. Dansgaard W., Johnsen S.J., Moller J. One thousand centuries of climatic record from Camp Century on the Greenland Ice Sheet. Science 1969, 166:377-381.
14. Dingle L.A., Van Hoven G., Sturrock P.A. Test for planetary influences on solar-activity. Solar Physics 1973, 31:243-246.
15. de Jager C., Versteegh G.J.M. Do planetary motions drive solar variability?. Solar Physics 2005, 229:175-179.
16. Eddy J.A. The maunder minimum. Science 1976, 192:1189-1202.
17. Eichler A., Olivier S., Henderson K., Laube A., Beer J., Papina T., Gäggeler H.W., Schwikowski M. Temperature response in the Altai region lags solar forcing. Geophysics Research Letters 2009, 36:L01808.
18. Ehret T. Old brass brains-mechanical prediction of tides. ACSM Bulletin 2008, 6:41-44.
19. Fairbridge R.W., Shirley J.H. Prolonged minima and the 179-yr cycle of the solar inertial motion. Solar Physics 1987, 110:191-210.
20. Friis-Christensen E., Lassen K. Length of the solar cycle: an indicator of solar activity closely associated with climate. Science 1991, 254:698-700.
21. Ghil M., Allen R.M., Dettinger M.D., Ide K., Kondrashov D., Mann M.E., Robertson A., Saunders A., Tian Y., Varadi F., Yiou P. Advanced spectral methods for climatic time series. Review of Geophysics 2002, 40:3.1-3.41. (SSA-MTM tool kit for spectral analysis).
22. Grandpierre A. On the origin of the solar cycle periodicity. Astrophysics and Space Science 1996, 243:393-400.
23. Hoyt D.V., Schatten K.H. The Role of the Sun in the Climate Change 1997, Oxford University Press, New York.
24. Hung, C.-C., 2007. Apparent Relations Between Solar Activity and Solar Tides Caused by the Planets. NASA/TM2007-214817.
25. Jiang J., Chatterjee P., Choudhuri A.R. Solar activity forecast with a dynamo model. Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society 2007, 381:1527-1542.
26. Jose P.D. Suns motion and sunspots. Astronomical Journal 1965, 70:193-200.
27. Kane R.P. Prediction of the sunspot maximum of solar cycle 23 by extrapolation of spectral components. Solar Physics 1999, 189:217-224.
28. Kepler J. Johannes Kepler's on the More Certain Fundamentals of Astrology, Prague 1601. Proceedings of the American Philosophical Society 1979, vol. 123(2):85-116.
29. Kepler J. De Stella Nova in Pede Serpentarii 1606, Typis Pauli Sessii, Pragae.
30. Kerr R.A. A variable sun paces millennial climate. Science 2001, 294:1431-1433.
31. Kirkby J. Cosmic rays and climate. Surveys in Geophysics 2007, 28:333-375.
32. Krivova N.A., Balmaceda L., Solanki S.K. Reconstruction of solar total irradiance since 1700 from the surface magnetic flux. Astronomy and Astrophysics 2007, 467:335-346.
33. Landscheidt T. Solar rotation, impulses of the torque in sun's motion, and climate change. Climatic Change 1988, 12:265-295.
34. Landscheidt T. Extrema in sunspot cycle linked to Sun's motion. Solar Physics 1999, 189:415-426.
35. Lean J., Beer J., Bradley R. Reconstruction of solar irradiance since 1610: implications for climate change. Geophysics Research Letters 1995, 22(23):3195-3198.
36. Ljungqvist F.C. A new reconstruction of temperature variability in the extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere during the last two millennia. Geografiska Annaler Series A 2010, 92:339-351.
37. Loehle C., Scafetta N. Climate change attribution using empirical decomposition of climatic data. The Open Atmospheric Science Journal 2011, 5:74-86.
38. Lovering, J., et al., 1868. In the "Memoirs of the American Academy of Arts and Science", vol. X, Part 1. Cambridge and Boston.
39. Ma'šar, A., 2000. On the Great Conjunctions. Edited and translated by K. Yamamoto, C. Burnett. Brill (886).
40. Moldwin M. An Introduction to Space Weather 2008, Cambridge University Press, UK.
41. Ogurtsov M.G., Nagovitsyn Y.A., Kocharov G.E., Jungner H. Long-period cycles of the Sun's activity recorded in direct solar data and proxies. Solar Physics 2002, 211:371-394.
42. Okal E., Anderson D.L. Planetary theory of sunspots. Nature 1975, 253:511-513.
43. Pikovsky A., Rosemblum M., Kurths J. Synchronization: A Universal Concept in Nonlinear Sciences 2001, Cambridge University Press.
44. Press W.H., Teukolsky S.A., Vetterling W.T., Flannery B.P. Numerical recipes in C 1992, Cambridge University Press.
45. Ptolemy, C., 1940. Tetrabiblos. Compiled and edited by F.E. Robbins. Harvard University Press (Loeb Classical Library), Cambridge, MA (2nd century).
46. Rabin D., Wilson R.W., Moore R.L. Bimodality of the solar cycle. Geophysics Research Letters 1986, 13(4):352-354.
47. Scafetta N., West B.J. Phenomenological reconstructions of the solar signature in the Northern Hemisphere surface temperature records since 1600. Journal of Geophysics Research 2007, 112:D24S03.
48. Scafetta N., Willson R.C. ACRIM-gap and TSI trend issue resolved using a surface magnetic flux TSI proxy model. Geophysics Research Letters 2009, 36:L05701.
49. Scafetta N. Empirical analysis of the solar contribution to global mean air surface temperature change. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 2009, 71:1916-1923.
50. Scafetta N. Empirical evidence for a celestial origin of the climate oscillations and its implications. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 2010, 72:951-970.
51. Scafetta, N., 2010. Spectral Analysis of the TSI Satellite Records, their Comparison and Interpretation. American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2010, abstract #GC21B-0868.
52. Scafetta N. A shared frequency set between the historical mid-latitude aurora records and the global surface temperature. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 2012, 74:145-163.
53. Scafetta, N. Testing an astronomically based decadal-scale empirical harmonic climate model versus the IPCC (2007) general circulation climate models. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics. doi:, in press. http://10.1016/j.jastp.2011.12.005.
54. Scafetta, N. A Proposal for Estimating of the Frequencies and the Magnitude of the Planetary Tidal Heating in the Solar Core, submitted for publication.
55. Schulz M., Paul A. Holocene climate variability on centennial-to-millennial time scales. 1. Climate records from the North-Atlantic realm, 41-54. Climate Development and History of the North Atlantic Realm 2002, Springer-Verlag, Berlin, Heidelberg. G. Wefer, W. Berger, K.-E. Behre, E. Jansen (Eds.).
56. Schuster A. The influence of planets on the formation of sun-spots. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series A, Containing Papers of a Mathematical and Physical Character 1911, 85(579):309-323.
57. Shapiro A.I., Schmutz W., Rozanov E., Schoell M., Haberreiter M., Shapiro A.V., Nyeki S. A new approach to long-term reconstruction of the solar irradiance leads to large historical solar forcing. Astronomy and Astrophysics 2011, 529:A67.
58. Smythe C.M., Eddy J.A. Planetary tides during Maunder sunspot minimum. Nature 1977, 266:434-435.
59. Sonett C.P., Suess H.E. Correlation of bristlecone pine ring widths with atmospheric carbon-14 variations: a climate-sun relation. Nature 1984, 308:141-143.
60. Soon W.W.-H. Solar arctic-mediated climate variation on multidecadal to centennial timescales: empirical evidence, mechanistic explanation, and testable consequences. Physical Geography 2009, 30:144-184.
61. Steinhilber F., Beer J., Fröhlich C. Total solar irradiance during the Holocene. Geophysics Research Letters 2009, 36:L19704.
62. Takahashi K. On the relation between the solar activity cycle and the solar tidal force induced by the planets. Solar Physics 1968, 3:598-602.
63. Tobias S.M. The solar dynamo. Philosophical Transactions A 2002, 360:2741-2756.
64. Thomson, W. (Lord Kelvin), 1881. The tide gauge, tidal harmonic analyzer, and tide predictor. Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers 65, 3-24.
65. Vasiliev S.S., Dergachev V.A. The 2400-year cycle in atmospheric radiocarbon concentration: bispectrum of 14C data over the last 8000 years. Annales Geophysicae 2002, 20:115-220.
66. Wilson R.M. Bimodality and the Hale cycle. Solar Physics 1988, 117(2):269-278.
67. Wilson I.R.G., Carter B.D., Waite I.A. Does a spin-orbit coupling between the Sun and the jovian planets govern the solar cycle?. Publications of the Astronomical Society of Australia 2008, 25:85-93.
68. Wolf R. Extract of a letter to Mr. Carrington. Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society 1859, 19:85-86.
69. Wolff C.L., Patrone P.N. A new way that planets can affect the Sun. Solar Physics 2010, 266:227-246.
70. Wolff C.L., Mayr H.G. The Sun's reversing flows and heat spike as caused by g-modes. Astrophysics Journal Letters 2004, 606:163-166.
71. Wood R.M., Wood K.D. Solar motion and sunspot comparison. Nature 1965, 208:129-131.
72. Wood K.D. Sunspots and planets. Nature 1972, 240:91-93.
73. Yamaguchia Y., Yokoyamaa Y., Miyaharad H., Shoe K., Nakatsukaf T. Synchronized Northern Hemisphere climate change and solar magnetic cycles during the Maunder Minimum. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 2010, 107:20697-20702.