Cohort Effects or Period Effects? Fertility Decline in South Korea in the Twentieth Century

Population Research and Policy Review

Volumn 31, Issue 3, 2012, Pages 387-415

  Kye, Bongoh ^a  

^a Cornell University ^*  (United States)

Author keywords

APC analysis; Cross sectional average fertility (CAF); Fertility decline in South Korea; Moment decomposition

Indexed keywords

AGE STRUCTURE; DECOMPOSITION ANALYSIS; FERTILITY; POPULATION DECLINE; POPULATION POLICY; TWENTIETH CENTURY;

SOUTH KOREA;

EID: 84860386344     PISSN: 01675923     EISSN: 15737829     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s11113-012-9232-y     Document Type: Article

References (50)

1. Becker, G. S. (1974). A theory of marriage. In T. W. Schultz (Ed.), Economics of the family: Marriage, children, and human capital (pp. 299-344). Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
2. Bongaarts, J., & Feeney, G. (1998). On the quantum and tempo of fertility. Population and Development Review, 24(2), 271-291.
3. Calot, G. (1993). Relationships between cohort and period demographic indicators: translation revisited. Population (English edition), 5, 183-222.
4. Choe, K. M., & Park, K. A. (2006). Fertility decline in South Korea: Forty years of policy-behavior dialogue. The Journal of Population Association of Korea, 29(2), 1-26.
5. Choi, K. (2004). Causes of the recent fertility drop in Korea. The Journal of Population Association of Korea, 27(2), 35-39. (in Korean).
6. Coale, A. J., & Trussell, T. J. (1974). Model fertility schedules: Variations in the age structure of childbearing in human populations. Population Index, 40(2), 185-285.
7. Cohen, B., & Montgomery, M. R. (1998). Introduction. In M. R. Montgomery & B. Cohen (Eds.), From deaths to birth: Mortality decline and reproductive change (pp. 1-38). Washington: National Academy Press.
8. Davis, K. (1963). The theory of change and response in modern demographic history. Population Index, 29(4), 345-366.
9. Fienberg, S., & Mason, W. M. (1979). Identification and estimation of age-period-cohort models in the analysis of discrete archival data. Sociological Methodology, 10, 1-67.
10. Fienberg, S., & Mason, W. M. (1985). Specification and implementation of age, period and cohort models. In W. M. Mason & S. E. Fienberg (Eds.), Cohort analysis in social research (pp. 25-88). New York: Springer.
11. Foster, A. (1990). Cohort analysis and demographic translation: A comparative study of recent trends in age specific fertility rates from Europe and North America. Population Studies, 44(2), 287-315.
12. Gauthier, A. H. (2007). The impact of family policies on fertility in industrialized countries: A review of the literature. Population Research and Policy Review, 26, 323-346.
13. Glenn, N. D. (2005). Cohort analysis (2nd ed.). Thousand Oaks: Sage Publication.
14. Goldstein, J. R., & Wachter, K. W. (2006). Relationships between period and cohort life expectancy: Gaps and lags. Population Studies, 60(3), 257-269.
15. Guillot, M. (2003). The cross-sectional average length of life (cal): A cross-sectional mortality measure that reflects the experience of cohorts. Population Studies, 57(1), 41-54.
16. Han, S. H., & Feeney, G. (1993). The emergence of a new pattern of childbearing: fertility in Korea during the 1980s. The Journal of the Population Association of Korea, 16(1), 59-68.
17. Johnson, R. A. (1985). Analysis of age, period, and cohort effects in marital fertility. In W. M. Mason & S. E. Fienberg (Eds.), Cohort analysis in social research (pp. 229-257). New York: Springer.
18. Jun, K. (2004). Fertility. In D. Kim & C. Kim (Eds.), Population of Korea (pp. 65-89). Seoul: Korea National Statistical Office.
19. Kohler, H., Billari, F. C., & Ortega, J. A. (2002). The emergence of lowest-low fertility in Europe during the 1990s. Population and Development Review, 28(4), 641-680.
20. Kohler, H., & Ortega, J. A. (2002). Tempo-adjusted period parity progression measures, fertility postponement and completed cohort fertility. Demographic Research, 6, 91-144.
21. Kwon, T. H. (1977). Demography in Korea. Seoul: Seoul National University Press.
22. Kwon, T. H. (1993). Exploring socio-cultural explanations of fertility transition in South Korea. In R. Leete & I. Alam (Eds.), The revolution in Asian fertility (pp. 41-53). Oxford: Clarendon Press.
23. Lam, D., & Marteleto, L. (2008). Stages of the demographic transition from a child's perspective: Family size, cohort size, and children's resources. Population Development Review, 34(2), 225-252.
24. Lee, S. Y. (2003). The relationship between son preference and fertility. The Journal of Population Association of Korea, 26(1), 31-57. (in Korean).
25. Lee, S. Y. (2006). Economic crisis and the lowest-low fertility. The Journal of Population Association of Korea, 29(3), 111-137. (in Korean).
26. Li, N., & Wu, Z. (2003). Forecasting cohort incomplete fertility: A method and an application. Population Studies, 57(3), 303-320.
27. Malthus, T. R. (1953). A summary view of the principle of population. In D. V. Glass (Ed.), Introduction to Malthus (pp. 115-181). New York: Wiley.
28. Mason, K. O. (1997). Explaining fertility transitions. Demography, 34(4), 443-454.
29. McDonald, P. (1993). Fertility transition in Asia: The statistical evidence. In R. Teete & I. Alam (Eds.), The revolution in Asian fertility (pp. 15-37). New York: Oxford University Press.
30. McDonald, P. (2002). Sustaining fertility through public policy: the range of options. Population (English Edition), 57(3), 417-446.
31. Ní Brolchaín, M. (1992). Period paramount? A critique of the cohort approach to fertility. Population and Development Review, 18(4), 599-629.
32. Notestein, F. W. (1945). Population-The long view. In T. W. Schultz (Ed.), Food for the world (pp. 36-57). Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
33. O'Brien, R. M. (2000). Age period cohort characteristic models. Social Science Research, 29, 123-139.
34. O'Brien, R. M., Hudson, K., & Stockard, J. (2008). A mixed model estimation of age, period, and cohort effects. Sociological Methods and Research, 36(3), 402-428.
35. Pearl, J. (2000). Causality: Models, reasoning, and inference. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
36. Preston, S. H. (1978). Introduction. In S. Preston (Ed.), The effects of infant and child mortality on fertility (pp. 1-16). New York: Academic Press.
37. Pullum, T. W. (1980). Separating age, period, and cohort effects in white U. S. fertility, 1920-1970. Social Science Research, 9, 225-244.
38. Rindfuss, R. R., Morgan, S. P., & Swicegood, G. (1988). First births in America: Changes in the timing of parenthood. Berkeley: University of California Press.
39. Ryder, N. (1964). The process of demographic translation. Demography, 1(1), 74-82.
40. Ryder, N. (1965). The cohort as a concept in the study of social change. American Sociological Review, 30(6), 843-861.
41. Schoen, R. (2004). Timing effects and the interpretation of period fertility. Demography, 41(4), 810-819.
42. Schofield, R. (1989). Family structure, demographic behavior, and economic growth. In J. Walter & R. Schofield (Eds.), Famine, disease and the social order in early modern society (pp. 279-304). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
43. Wachter, K. W. (2007). Essential demographic methods. Unpublished Manuscript.
44. Winship, C., & Harding, D. (2008). A mechanism-based approach to the identification of age period cohort models. Sociological Methods and Research, 36(3), 362-401.
45. World Health Organization. (2010). World Health Statistics 2010. Geneva: WHO Press.
46. Xie, Y., & Pimentel, E. E. (1992). Age patterns of marital fertility: Revising the Coale-Trussell method. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 87, 977-984.
47. Yang, Y. (2008). Trends in U. S. adult chronic disease mortality, 1960-1999: Age, period, and cohort variations. Demography, 45(2), 387-416.
48. Yang, Y. (2011). Aging, cohorts, and methods. In R. H. Binstock & L. K. George (Eds.), Handbook of aging and the social sciences (7th ed., pp. 17-30). London: Academic Press.
49. Yang, Y., Fu, W. J., & Land, K. C. (2004). A methodological comparison of age-period-cohort models: Intrinsic estimator and conventional generalized linear models. Sociological Methodology, 34, 75-110.
50. Yang, Y., & Land, K. C. (2006). A mixed models approach to the age-period-cohort analysis of repeated cross-section surveys: Trends in verbal test scores. Sociological Methodology, 36, 75-97.