메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 57, Issue 3, 2003, Pages 303-320

Forecasting cohort incomplete fertility: A method and an application

Author keywords

Cohort fertility; Fertility forecast; SVD model

Indexed keywords

BIRTH RATE; DEMOGRAPHIC METHOD; FORECASTING METHOD; MODELING;

EID: 0344552263     PISSN: 00324728     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/0032472032000137826     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (14)

References (51)
  • 1
    • 84865663752 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Introduction: The need to rethink approaches to population forecasts
    • Ahlburg, D. A. and W. Lutz. 1998. Introduction: the need to rethink approaches to population forecasts, Population and Development Review 24(Suppl.): 1-15.
    • (1998) Population and Development Review , vol.24 , Issue.SUPPL. , pp. 1-15
    • Ahlburg, D.A.1    Lutz, W.2
  • 2
    • 0003225960 scopus 로고
    • Family formation and macro behavior
    • Becker, G. S. 1988. Family formation and macro behavior, American Economic Review 78: 1-13.
    • (1988) American Economic Review , vol.78 , pp. 1-13
    • Becker, G.S.1
  • 3
    • 0020171689 scopus 로고
    • What's happening to the age at first birth in the United States? A study of recent cohorts
    • Bloom, D. E. 1982. What's happening to the age at first birth in the United States? A study of recent cohorts, Demography 19: 351-370.
    • (1982) Demography , vol.19 , pp. 351-370
    • Bloom, D.E.1
  • 7
    • 0017935167 scopus 로고
    • Age and marital status at first birth and the pace of subsequent fertility
    • Bumpass, L. L., R. Rindfuss, and R. B. Janosik. 1978. Age and marital status at first birth and the pace of subsequent fertility, Demography 15: 75-86.
    • (1978) Demography , vol.15 , pp. 75-86
    • Bumpass, L.L.1    Rindfuss, R.2    Janosik, R.B.3
  • 9
    • 0033407538 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Recent European fertility patterns: Fitting curves to 'distorted' distributions
    • Chandola, T., D. A. Coleman, and R. W. Hiorns. 1999. Recent European fertility patterns: fitting curves to 'distorted' distributions, Population Studies 53: 317-329.
    • (1999) Population Studies , vol.53 , pp. 317-329
    • Chandola, T.1    Coleman, D.A.2    Hiorns, R.W.3
  • 10
    • 0026246353 scopus 로고
    • Recent trends in the timing of first birth in the United States
    • Chen, R. and S. P. Morgan. 1991. Recent trends in the timing of first birth in the United States, Demography 28: 513-533.
    • (1991) Demography , vol.28 , pp. 513-533
    • Chen, R.1    Morgan, S.P.2
  • 11
    • 0002542759 scopus 로고
    • The demographic transition reconsiderd
    • Liege: International Union for the Scientific Study of Population
    • Coale, A. J. 1973. The demographic transition reconsiderd, in Proceedings: International Population Conference, 1973, Volume 1. Liege: International Union for the Scientific Study of Population.
    • (1973) Proceedings: International Population Conference, 1973 , vol.1
    • Coale, A.J.1
  • 13
    • 0344509406 scopus 로고
    • Model fertility schedules: Variations in the age structure of childbearing in human populations
    • Coale, A. J. and T. J. Trussell. 1974. Model fertility schedules: variations in the age structure of childbearing in human populations, Population Index 44: 203-213.
    • (1974) Population Index , vol.44 , pp. 203-213
    • Coale, A.J.1    Trussell, T.J.2
  • 14
    • 0030180938 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • National population scenarios for countries of the European economic area
    • De Beer, J. and A. De Jong. 1996. National population scenarios for countries of the European economic area, Maandstatistiek van de Bevolking 44: 7-19.
    • (1996) Maandstatistiek van de Bevolking , vol.44 , pp. 7-19
    • De Beer, J.1    DeJong, A.2
  • 15
    • 0022901325 scopus 로고
    • American fertility patterns: A comparison of white and nonwhite cohorts born 1903-56
    • Evans, M. D. R. 1986. American fertility patterns: a comparison of white and nonwhite cohorts born 1903-56, Population and Development Review 12:267-293.
    • (1986) Population and Development Review , vol.12 , pp. 267-293
    • Evans, M.D.R.1
  • 16
    • 0024997953 scopus 로고
    • Cohort analysis and demographic translation: A comparative study of recent trends in age-specific fertility rates from Europe and North America
    • Foster, A. 1990. Cohort analysis and demographic translation: a comparative study of recent trends in age-specific fertility rates from Europe and North America, Population Studies 44: 287-315.
    • (1990) Population Studies , vol.44 , pp. 287-315
    • Foster, A.1
  • 17
    • 0035027042 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Cohort reproductive patterns in low-fertility countries
    • Frejka, T. and G. Calot. 2001a. Cohort reproductive patterns in low-fertility countries, Population and Development Review 27: 103-132.
    • (2001) Population and Development Review , vol.27 , pp. 103-132
    • Frejka, T.1    Calot, G.2
  • 19
    • 0344509407 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Cohort childbearing age patterns in low-fertility countries in the late 20th century: Is the postponement of births an inherent element?
    • Tokyo, 21-23 March 2001
    • Frejka, T. and G. Calot. 2001c. Cohort childbearing age patterns in low-fertility countries in the late 20th century: is the postponement of births an inherent element? Paper presented at the IUSSP Seminar on 'International Perspectives on Low Fertility: Trends, Theories and Policies', Tokyo, 21-23 March 2001.
    • (2001) The IUSSP Seminar on 'International Perspectives on Low Fertility: Trends, Theories and Policies'
    • Frejka, T.1    Calot, G.2
  • 25
    • 0035257694 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Variance effects in the Bongaarts-Feeney formula
    • Kohler, H.-P. and D. Philipov. 2001. Variance effects in the Bongaarts-Feeney formula, Demography 38:1-16.
    • (2001) Demography , vol.38 , pp. 1-16
    • Kohler, H.-P.1    Philipov, D.2
  • 27
    • 0027652326 scopus 로고
    • Modeling and forecasting the time series of U.S. fertility: Age patterns, range, and ultimate level
    • Lee, R. 1993. Modeling and forecasting the time series of U.S. fertility: age patterns, range, and ultimate level, International Journal of Forecasting 9: 187-202.
    • (1993) International Journal of Forecasting , vol.9 , pp. 187-202
    • Lee, R.1
  • 29
    • 0344509404 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Special Tabulations. Tokyo: Population Research Institute, Nihon University
    • Matsukura, R. 2002. Age-specific fertility rates. Special Tabulations. Tokyo: Population Research Institute, Nihon University.
    • (2002) Age-specific Fertility Rates
    • Matsukura, R.1
  • 31
    • 28144445265 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Characteristic features of modern American fertility
    • Morgan, S. P. 1996. Characteristic features of modern American fertility, Population Development Review 22(Suppl.): 19-63.
    • (1996) Population Development Review , vol.22 , Issue.SUPPL. , pp. 19-63
    • Morgan, S.P.1
  • 32
    • 0033073143 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Reexamining the link of early childbearing to marriage and to subsequent fertility
    • Morgan, S. P. and R. R. Rindfuss. 1999. Reexamining the link of early childbearing to marriage and to subsequent fertility, Demography 36: 59-75.
    • (1999) Demography , vol.36 , pp. 59-75
    • Morgan, S.P.1    Rindfuss, R.R.2
  • 33
    • 0003553399 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • National Centre for Health Statistics. Available
    • National Centre for Health Statistics. 2000. National Vital Statistics Report 48. Available: http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/pubs/pubd/mvsr/mvsr.htm
    • (2000) National Vital Statistics Report 48
  • 34
    • 0003553399 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • National Centre for Health Statistics. Available
    • National Centre for Health Statistics. 2001. National Vital Statistics Report 49. Available: http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/pubs/pubd/mvsr/mvsr.htm
    • (2001) National Vital Statistics Report 49
  • 35
    • 0027091674 scopus 로고
    • Period paramount? A critique of the cohort approach to fertility
    • Ni Bhrolchain, M. 1992. Period paramount? A critique of the cohort approach to fertility. Population Development Review 18: 599-629.
    • (1992) Population Development Review , vol.18 , pp. 599-629
    • Ni Bhrolchain, M.1
  • 36
    • 0003075526 scopus 로고
    • Population-the long view
    • T. W. Schultz (ed.), Chicago: University of Chicago Press
    • Notestein, F. 1945. Population-the long view, in T. W. Schultz (ed.), Food for the World. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, pp. 13-31.
    • (1945) Food for the World , pp. 13-31
    • Notestein, F.1
  • 37
    • 0344078214 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Office of Population Research. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. Available
    • Office of Population Research. 2001. US. Cohort and Period Fertility Tables, 1917-1980. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. Available: http://opr.princeton.edu/archive/heuser
    • (2001) US. Cohort and Period Fertility Tables, 1917-1980
  • 39
    • 0003341142 scopus 로고
    • Problems of trend determination during a transition in fertility
    • Ryder, N. B. 1956. Problems of trend determination during a transition in fertility, Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly 34: 5-21.
    • (1956) Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly , vol.34 , pp. 5-21
    • Ryder, N.B.1
  • 40
    • 0001622331 scopus 로고
    • Cohort and period measures of changing fertility
    • R. A. Bulatao and R. Lee (eds.), New York: Academic Press
    • Ryder, N. B. 1983. Cohort and period measures of changing fertility, in R. A. Bulatao and R. Lee (eds.), Determinants of Fertility in Developing Countries. New York: Academic Press, pp. 737-756.
    • (1983) Determinants of Fertility in Developing Countries , pp. 737-756
    • Ryder, N.B.1
  • 41
    • 0025634637 scopus 로고
    • What is going to happen to American fertility?
    • Ryder, N. B. 1990. What is going to happen to American fertility?. Population and Development Review 16: 433-454.
    • (1990) Population and Development Review , vol.16 , pp. 433-454
    • Ryder, N.B.1
  • 42
    • 0345371560 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Statistics Canada. Ottawa: Statistics Canada. Available
    • Statistics Canada. 2002a. Canadian Statistics: Age-specific Fertility Rate. Ottawa: Statistics Canada. Available: http://www.statcan.ca/english/Pgdb/People/Health/health08.htm
    • (2002) Canadian Statistics: Age-Specific Fertility Rate
  • 43
    • 0344509401 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Statistics Canada. Ottawa: Health Division, Statistics Canada
    • Statistics Canada. 2002b. Births, 1998-1999. Special Tabulations. Ottawa: Health Division, Statistics Canada.
    • (2002) Births, 1998-1999. Special Tabulations
  • 45
    • 84937336078 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • On the impossibility of inferring cohort fertility measures from period fertility measures
    • Available
    • van Imhoff, E. 2001. On the impossibility of inferring cohort fertility measures from period fertility measures, Demographic Research 5: 21-64. Available: http://demographic-research.org
    • (2001) Demographic Research , vol.5 , pp. 21-64
    • van Imhoff, E.1
  • 46
  • 47
    • 0004183255 scopus 로고
    • United Nations. New York: United Nations
    • United Nations. 1987-1997. Demographic Yearbook. New York: United Nations.
    • (1987) Demographic Yearbook
  • 49
    • 0017550530 scopus 로고
    • The predictive validity of reproductive intentions
    • Westoff, C. F. and N. B. Ryder. 1977. The predictive validity of reproductive intentions, Demography 14: 431-453.
    • (1977) Demography , vol.14 , pp. 431-453
    • Westoff, C.F.1    Ryder, N.B.2
  • 51
    • 0035260871 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A sensitivity analysis of the Bongaarts-Feeney method for adjusting bias in observed period total fertility rates
    • Zeng, Y. and K. C. Land. 2001. A sensitivity analysis of the Bongaarts-Feeney method for adjusting bias in observed period total fertility rates, Demography 38: 17-28.
    • (2001) Demography , vol.38 , pp. 17-28
    • Zeng, Y.1    Land, K.C.2


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.