Measuring risk perceptions: What does the excessive use of 50% mean?

Medical Decision Making

Volumn 32, Issue 2, 2012, Pages 232-236

  Bruine De Bruin, Wändi ^a   Carman, Katherine G ^b  

^a CARNEGIE MELLON UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b TILBURG UNIVERSITY   (Netherlands)

Author keywords

risk perception; survival expectations; uncertainty

Indexed keywords

ADOLESCENT; ADULT; AGE; AGED; ARTICLE; DECISION MAKING; EDUCATIONAL STATUS; FEMALE; HEALTH SURVEY; HUMAN; LONGITUDINAL STUDY; MALE; MIDDLE AGED; PROBABILITY; RISK ASSESSMENT; STATISTICS; SURVIVAL; UNCERTAINTY;

ADOLESCENT; ADULT; AGE FACTORS; AGED; AGED, 80 AND OVER; EDUCATIONAL STATUS; FEMALE; HEALTH STATUS INDICATORS; HUMANS; JUDGMENT; LONGITUDINAL STUDIES; MALE; MIDDLE AGED; PROBABILITY; RISK ASSESSMENT; STATISTICS AS TOPIC; SURVIVAL ANALYSIS; UNCERTAINTY; YOUNG ADULT;

EID: 84859333112     PISSN: 0272989X     EISSN: 1552681X     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1177/0272989X11404077     Document Type: Article

References (20)

1. Ajzen I. The theory of planned behavior. Organ Behav Hum Decis Process. 1991 ; 50: 179-211
2. Fishbein M, Ajzen I. Belief, Attitude, Intention, and Behavior: An Introduction to Theory and Research. Reading, MA: Addison- Wesley; 1975.
3. GerrardMGibbonsFXHoulihanAEStockMLPomeryEA. A dual-process approach to health risk decision making: the prototype willingness model. Dev Rev. 2008;28:29-61.
4. Morgan MG, Fischhoff B, Bostrom A, Atman CJ. Risk Communication: A Mental Models Approach. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press ; 2002:
5. Prentice-Dunn S, Rogers RW. Protection motivation theory and preventive health: beyond the health belief model. Health Educ Res. 1986 ; 1: 153-61 (Pubitemid 17205576)
6. Hurd MD. Subjective probabilities in household surveys. Annu Rev Econ. 2009 ; 1: 543-64
7. Hurd MD, McGarry K. Evaluation of the subjective probabilities of survival in the health and retirement study. J Hum Resour. 1995 ; 30: S268-92
8. Hurd MD, McGarry K. The predictive validity of subjective probabilities of survival. Econ J. 2002 ; 112: 966-85 (Pubitemid 35241733)
9. Bruine de Bruin W, Downs JS, Murray PM, Fischhoff B. Can female adolescents tell whether they will test positive for Chlamydia infection?. Med Decis Making. 2010 ; 30: 189-93
10. Bruine de Bruin W, Parker AM, Fischhoff B. Can adolescents predict significant life events?. J Adolesc Health. 2007 ; 41: 208-10 (Pubitemid 47058984)
11. Fischhoff B, Parker AM, Bruine de Bruin W, et al. Teen expectations for significant life events. Public Opin Q. 2000 ; 64: 189-205
12. Bruine de Bruin W, Fischbeck PS, Stiber NA, Fischhoff B. What number is "fifty-fifty"? Redistributing excess 50% responses in risk perception studies. Risk Anal. 2002 ; 22: 725-35
13. Bruine de Bruin W, Fischhoff B, Millstein SG, Halpern-Felsher BL. Verbal and numerical expressions of probability: "it's a fifty-fifty chance.". Organ Behav Hum Decis Process. 2000 ; 81: 115-31
14. Fischhoff B, Bruine de Bruin W. Fifty-fifty=50%?. J Behav Decis Making. 1999 ; 12: 149-63
15. Lipkus IM, Samsa G, Rimer BK. General performance on a numeracy scale among highly educated samples. Med Decis Making. 2001 ; 21: 37-44 (Pubitemid 32245029)
16. Peters E, Västfjäll D, Slovic P, Mertz CK, Mazzocco K, Dickert S. Numeracy and decision making. Psychol Sci. 2006 ; 17: 408-14
17. Rosenthal R, Rosnow RL. Essentials of Behavioral Research: Methods and Data Analysis. 2 nd ed. New York: McGraw-Hill; 1991. New York: McGraw-Hill ; 1991:
18. Bruine de Bruin W, Manski CF, Topa G, VanderKlaaw W. Measuring consumer uncertainty about future inflation. Journal Appl Econom.:
19. Manski CF, Molinari F. Rounding probabilistic expectations in surveys. J Bus Econ Stat. 2010 ; 28: 219-31
20. Delavande A, Rohwedder S. Eliciting subjective probabilities in Internet surveys. Public Opin Q. 2008 ; 72: 866-91