Merging developmental and criminal career perspectives: Implications for risk assessment and risk prediction of violent/sexual recidivism in adult sexual aggressors of women

Sexual Abuse: Journal of Research and Treatment

Volumn 24, Issue 2, 2012, Pages 107-132

  Cale, Jesse ^a   Lussier, Patrick ^b  

^a GRIFFITH UNIVERSITY   (Australia)

^b SIMON FRASER UNIVERSITY   (Canada)

Author keywords

antisocial trajectories; Cox regression; criminal career; onset; rapists; risk assessment; sexual recidivism; survival analysis

Indexed keywords

EID: 84858762410     PISSN: 10790632     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1177/1079063211403503     Document Type: Article

References (48)

1. Allison P. D.Survival analysis using SAS: A practical guide. Cary, NC: SAS Institute; 1995:.
2. Barbaree H. E.,Blanchard R.,Langton C. M.The development of sexual aggression through the life span: The effect of age on sexual arousal and recidivism among sex offenders.Understanding and managing sexually coercive behavior. Prentky R.Janus E.Seto M., ed. New York, NY: New York Academy of Sciences; 2003:59-71.
3. Barbaree H. E.,Langton C.,Peacock E. J.Different actuarial risk measures produce different risk rankings for sexual offenders.Sexual Abuse: A Journal of Research and Treatment. 2006;18:423-440.
4. Bergman L. R.The application of a person-oriented approach: Types and clusters.Developmental science and the holistic approach. Bergman L. R.Cairns R. B.Nilsson L.-G.Nystedt L., ed. Mahwah, NJ: Erlbaum; 2000:137-154.
5. Blumstein A.,Farrington D. P.,Moitra S.Delinquency careers: Innocents, desisters, and persisters.Crime and Justice: An Annual Review of Research. 1985;7:187-221.
6. Cale J.,Lussier P.Toward a developmental taxonomy of adult sexual aggressors of women: Antisocial trajectories in youth, mating effort, and sexual criminal activity in adulthood.Violence and Victims. 2011;26:16-32.
7. Cale J.,Lussier P.,Proulx J.Heterogeneity in antisocial trajectories in youth of adult sexual aggressors of women: An examination of initiation, persistence, escalation, and aggravation.Sexual Abuse: A Journal of Research and Treatment. 2009;21:223-248.
8. DeLisi M.Extreme criminal careers.American Journal of Criminal Justice. 2001;25:239-252.
9. Doren D.Toward a multidimensional model for sexual recidivism risk.Journal of Interpersonal Violence. 2004;19:835-856.
10. Epperson D. L.,Kaul J. D.,Huot S. J.,Hesselton D.,Alexander W.,Goldman R.Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool-Revised. St. Paul: Minnesota Department of Corrections; 1998:.
11. Farrington D. P.Early predictors of adolescent aggression and adult violence.Violence and Victims. 1989;4:79-100.
12. Farrington D. P.Developmental life course criminology: Key theoretical and empirical issues-The 2002 Sutherland award address.Criminology. 2003;41:221-255.
13. Farrington D. P.,Loeber R.Some benefits of dichotomization in psychiatric and criminological research.Criminal Behaviour and Mental Health. 2000;10:100-122.
14. Fox J.Cox proportional-hazards regression for survival data.An R and S-PLUS companion to applied regression. Fox R., ed. Thousand Oaks, CA: SAGE; 2002:.
15. Grambsch P. M.,Therneau T. M.Proportional hazards tests and diagnostics based on weighted residuals.Biometrika. 1994;81:515-526.
16. Hall G. C. N.,Proctor W. C.Criminological predictors of recidivism in a sexual offender population.Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology. 1987;55:111-112.
17. Hanson R. K.The development of a brief actuarial risk scale for sexual offence recidivism. Ottawa, Ontario: Department of the Solicitor General Canada; 1997:.
18. Hanson R. K.The validity of the Static 99 with older sexual offenders. Ottawa, Ontario: Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness Canada; 2005:.
19. Hanson R. K.,Thornton D.Static-99: Improving actuarial risk assessments for sex offenders. Ottawa, Ontario: Department of the Solicitor General of Canada; 2000:.
20. Hanson R. K.,Thornton D.Notes on the development of the Static 2002. Ottawa, Ontario: Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness Canada; 2003:.
21. Harris G. T.,Rice M. E.,Quinsey V. L.Violent recidivism of mentally disordered offenders: The development of a statistical prediction instrument.Criminal Justice and Behavior. 1993;20:315-335.
22. Harris G. T.,Rice M. E.Adjusting actuarial violence risk assessments based on aging or the passage of time.Criminal Justice and Behavior. 2007;34:297-313.
23. Harris D. A.,Mazerolle P.,Knight R. A.Understanding male sexual offending: A comparison of general and specialist theories.Criminal Justice and Behavior. 2009;36:1051-1069.
24. Hirschi T.,Gottfredson M.Control theory and the life-course perspective.Studies on Crime and Crime Prevention. 1995;4:131-142.
25. Lalumière M. L.,Harris G. T.,Quinsey V. L.,Rice M. E.The causes of rape: Understanding individual differences in male propensity for sexual aggression. Washington, DC: American Psychological Association; 2005:.
26. LeBlanc M.,Loeber R.Crime and justice. Tonry M., ed. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press; 1998:115-198.
27. LeBlanc M.An integrative personal control theory of deviant behavior: Answers to contemporary empirical and theoretical developmental criminological issues.Integrated developmental and life-course theories of offending. Farrington D. P., ed. London, UK: Transaction Publishing; 2005:125-163.
28. Lipsey M. W.,Derzon J. H.Predictors of violent or serious delinquency in adolescence and early adulthood: A synthesis of longitudinal research.Serious and violent juvenile offenders: Risk factors and successful interventions. Loeber R.Farrington D. P., ed. Thousand Oaks, CA: SAGE; 1998:86-105.
29. Loeber R.,LeBlanc M.Toward a developmental criminology.Crime and justice. Morris N.Tonry M., ed. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press; 1990:375-473.
30. Lussier P.,Healey J.Rediscovering Quetelet, again: The "aging" offender and the prediction of reoffending in a sample of adult sex offenders.Justice Quarterly. 2009;26:827-856.
31. Lussier P.,LeBlanc M.,Proulx J.The generality of criminal behaviour: A confirmatory factor analysis of the criminal career parameters of sexual offenders.Journal of Criminal Justice. 2005;33:177-189.
32. Lussier P.,Leclerc B.,Cale J.,Proulx J.Developmental pathways of deviance in sexual aggressors.Criminal Justice and Behavior. 2007;34:1441-1462.
33. Lussier P.,Proulx J.,LeBlanc M.Criminal propensity, deviant sexual interests and criminal activity of sexual aggressors against women: A comparison of explanatory models.Criminology. 2005;43:249-281.
34. Moffitt T. E.Adolescence-limited and life-course-persistent antisocial behavior: A developmental taxonomy.Psychological Review. 1993;100:674-701.
35. Moffitt T. E.,Caspi A.,Harrington H.,Milne B. J.Males on the life-course persistent and adolecence-limited antisocial pathways: Follow-up at age 26.Development and Psychopathology. 2002;14:179-206.
36. Mojena R.Hierarchical grouping methods and stopping rules: An evaluation.Computer Journal. 1977;20:359-363.
37. Odgers C. L.,Moffitt T. E.,Broadbent J. M.,Dickson N.,Hancox R. J.,Harrington H., Caspi A.Female and male antisocial trajectories: From child origins to adult outcomes.Development and Psychopathology. 2008;20:673-716.
38. Patterson G. R.,Yoerger K.Developmental models for delinquent behaviour.Mental disorder and crime. Hodgins S., ed. Newbury Park, CA: SAGE; 1993:140-172.
39. Piper E. S.Violent recidivism and chronicity in the 1958 Philadelphia cohort.Journal of Quantitative Criminology. 1985;1:319-344.
40. Prentky R. A.,Lee A. F. S.Effect of age-at-release on long term sexual re-offense rates in civilly committed sexual offenders.Sexual Abuse: Journal of Research and Treatment. 2007;19:43-59.
41. Proulx J.,Pellerin B.,Paradis Y.,McKibben A.,Aubut J.,Ouimet M.Static and dynamic predictors of recidivism in sexual aggressors.Sexual Abuse: A Journal of Research and Treatment. 1997;9:7-27.
42. Quinsey V. L.,Harris G. T.,Rice M. E.,Cormier C. A.Violent offenders: Appraising and managing risk. Washington, DC: American Psychological Association; 1998:.
43. Quinsey V. L.,Rice M. E.,Harris G. T.Actuarial prediction of sexual recidivism.Journal of Interpersonal Violence. 1995;10:85-105.
44. Seto M. C.Is more better? Combining actuarial risk scales to predict recidivism among adult sex offenders.Psychological Assessment. 2005;17:156-167.
45. Seto M. C.,Barbaree H. E.Sexual aggression as antisocial behavior: A developmental model.Handbook of antisocial behavior. Stoff D. M.Breiling J.Maser J. D., ed. New York: John Wiley; 1997:524-533.
46. Simon L. M. J.An examination of the assumptions of specialization, mental disorder, and dangerousness in sex offenders.Behavioral Sciences and the Law. 2000;18:275-308.
47. Thornberry T. P.Explaining multiple patterns of offending across the life course and across generations.Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science. 2005;602:156-195.
48. Tracy P. E.,Wolfgang M. E.,Figlio R. M.Delinquency careers in two birth cohorts. New York, NY: Plenum; 1990:.