메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 26, Issue 4, 2009, Pages 827-856

Rediscovering quetelet, again: The "aging" offender and the prediction of reoffending in a sample of adult sex offenders

Author keywords

Age; Cox regression; Onset; Recidivism; Risk assessment; Sex offender; Static 99; Survival analysis

Indexed keywords


EID: 70350755548     PISSN: 07418825     EISSN: 17459109     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/07418820802593360     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (58)

References (62)
  • 2
    • 0038575455 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The development of sexual aggression through the life span: The effect of age on sexual arousal and recidivism among sex offenders
    • Barbaree, H. E., Blanchard, R., & Langton, C. M. (2003). The development of sexual aggression through the life span: The effect of age on sexual arousal and recidivism among sex offenders. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 989, 59-71.
    • (2003) Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences , vol.989 , pp. 59-71
    • Barbaree, H.E.1    Blanchard, R.2    Langton, C.M.3
  • 3
    • 84942316890 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predicting recidivism in sex offenders using the VRAG and SORAG: The contribution of age-at-release
    • Barbaree, H. E., Langton, C. M., & Blanchard, R. (2007). Predicting recidivism in sex offenders using the VRAG and SORAG: The contribution of age-at-release. International Journal of Forensic Mental Health, 6, 29-46.
    • (2007) International Journal of Forensic Mental Health , vol.6 , pp. 29-46
    • Barbaree, H.E.1    Langton, C.M.2    Blanchard, R.3
  • 5
    • 23044527138 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evaluating the predictive accuracy of six risk assessment instruments for adult sex offenders
    • Barbaree, H. E., Seto, M. C., Langton, C. M., & Peacock, E. J. (2001). Evaluating the predictive accuracy of six risk assessment instruments for adult sex offenders. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 28, 490-521.
    • (2001) Criminal Justice and Behavior , vol.28 , pp. 490-521
    • Barbaree, H.E.1    Seto, M.C.2    Langton, C.M.3    Peacock, E.J.4
  • 6
    • 0023847867 scopus 로고
    • Criminal career research: Its value for criminology
    • Blumstein, A., Cohen, J., & Farrington, D. P. (1988). Criminal career research: Its value for criminology. Criminology, 26, 1-35.
    • (1988) Criminology , vol.26 , pp. 1-35
    • Blumstein, A.1    Cohen, J.2    Farrington, D.P.3
  • 8
    • 1642443943 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Stability of the interpretative risk percentages for the RRASOR and static-99
    • Doren, D. M. (2004). Stability of the interpretative risk percentages for the RRASOR and static-99. Sexual Abuse: Journal of Research and Treatment, 16, 25-36.
    • (2004) Sexual Abuse: Journal of Research and Treatment , vol.16 , pp. 25-36
    • Doren, D.M.1
  • 9
    • 33748312027 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • What do we know about the effect of aging on recidivism risk for sexual offenders?
    • Doren, D. M. (2006). What do we know about the effect of aging on recidivism risk for sexual offenders? Sexual Abuse: Journal of Research and Treatment, 18, 137-157.
    • (2006) Sexual Abuse: Journal of Research and Treatment , vol.18 , pp. 137-157
    • Doren, D.M.1
  • 10
    • 0000726272 scopus 로고
    • Age and crime
    • In M. Tonry & N. Morris (Eds.), Chicago: Chicago University Press
    • Farrington, D. P. (1986). Age and crime. In M. Tonry & N. Morris (Eds.), Crime and justice: A review of research: Vol. 7 (pp. 189-250). Chicago: Chicago University Press.
    • (1986) Crime and Justice: A Review of Research , vol.7 , pp. 189-250
    • Farrington, D.P.1
  • 13
    • 84984323827 scopus 로고
    • True value of lambda would appear to be zero: An essay on career criminals, criminal careers, selective incapacitation, cohort studies, and related topics
    • Gottfredson, M. R., & Hirschi, T. (1986). True value of lambda would appear to be zero: An essay on career criminals, criminal careers, selective incapacitation, cohort studies, and related topics. Criminology, 24, 213-234.
    • (1986) Criminology , vol.24 , pp. 213-234
    • Gottfredson, M.R.1    Hirschi, T.2
  • 15
    • 70449647008 scopus 로고
    • Proportional hazards tests and diagnostics based on weighted residuals
    • Grambsch, P. M., & Therneau, T. M. (1994). Proportional hazards tests and diagnostics based on weighted residuals. Biometrika, 81, 515-526.
    • (1994) Biometrika , vol.81 , pp. 515-526
    • Grambsch, P.M.1    Therneau, T.M.2
  • 17
    • 0036373998 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Recidivism and age: Follow-up data from 4,673 sexual offenders
    • Hanson, R. K. (2002). Recidivism and age: Follow-up data from 4,673 sexual offenders. Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 17, 1046-1062.
    • (2002) Journal of Interpersonal Violence , vol.17 , pp. 1046-1062
    • Hanson, R.K.1
  • 18
    • 33845501843 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Does Static-99 predict recidivism among older sexual offenders?
    • Hanson, R. K. (2006). Does Static-99 predict recidivism among older sexual offenders? Sexual Abuse: A Journal of Research and Treatment, 18, 343-355.
    • (2006) Sexual Abuse: A Journal of Research and Treatment , vol.18 , pp. 343-355
    • Hanson, R.K.1
  • 19
    • 2642673581 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predicting relapse: A meta-analysis of sexual offender recidivism studies
    • Hanson, R. K., & Bussière, M. T. (1998). Predicting relapse: A meta-analysis of sexual offender recidivism studies. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 66, 348-362.
    • (1998) Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology , vol.66 , pp. 348-362
    • Hanson, R.K.1    Bussière, M.T.2
  • 21
    • 0033965311 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Improving risk assessments for sex offenders: A comparison of three actuarial scales
    • Hanson, R. K., & Thornton, D. (2000). Improving risk assessments for sex offenders: A comparison of three actuarial scales. Law and Human Behavior, 24, 119-136.
    • (2000) Law and Human Behavior , vol.24 , pp. 119-136
    • Hanson, R.K.1    Thornton, D.2
  • 22
    • 33847115211 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Adjusting actuarial violence risk assessments based on aging or the passage of time
    • Harris, G. T., & Rice, M. E. (2007). Adjusting actuarial violence risk assessments based on aging or the passage of time. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 34, 297-313.
    • (2007) Criminal Justice and Behavior , vol.34 , pp. 297-313
    • Harris, G.T.1    Rice, M.E.2
  • 26
    • 0038727872 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Legislative responses to sexual violence: An overview
    • Janus, E. S. (2003). Legislative responses to sexual violence: An overview. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 989, 247-264.
    • (2003) Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences , vol.989 , pp. 247-264
    • Janus, E.S.1
  • 27
    • 0346346339 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predictors of desistance among sex offenders: The interaction of formal and informal social controls
    • Kruttschnitt, C., Uggen, C., & Shelton, K. (2000). Predictors of desistance among sex offenders: The interaction of formal and informal social controls. Justice Quarterly, 17, 61-87.
    • (2000) Justice Quarterly , vol.17 , pp. 61-87
    • Kruttschnitt, C.1    Uggen, C.2    Shelton, K.3
  • 30
    • 0032334583 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The age-crime debate: Assessing the limits of longitudinal self-report data
    • Lauritsen, J. L. (1998). The age-crime debate: Assessing the limits of longitudinal self-report data. Social Forces, 77, 127-154.
    • (1998) Social Forces , vol.77 , pp. 127-154
    • Lauritsen, J.L.1
  • 31
    • 34548259252 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Megan's law and its impact on community re-entry for sex offenders
    • Levenson, J. S., D'Amora, D. A., & Hern, A. L. (2007). Megan's law and its impact on community re-entry for sex offenders. Behavioral Sciences & the Law, 25, 587-602.
    • (2007) Behavioral Sciences & the Law , vol.25 , pp. 587-602
    • Levenson, J.S.1    D'amora, D.A.2    Hern, A.L.3
  • 34
    • 21644479916 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The criminal activity of sexual offenders in adulthood: Revisiting the specialization debate
    • Lussier, P. (2005). The criminal activity of sexual offenders in adulthood: Revisiting the specialization debate. Sexual Abuse: Journal of Research and Treatment, 17, 269-292.
    • (2005) Sexual Abuse: Journal of Research and Treatment , vol.17 , pp. 269-292
    • Lussier, P.1
  • 36
    • 14544282365 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The generality of criminal behavior: A confirmatory factor analysis of the criminal activity of sex offenders in adulthood
    • Lussier, P., LeBlanc, M., & Proulx, J. (2005). The generality of criminal behavior: A confirmatory factor analysis of the criminal activity of sex offenders in adulthood. Journal of Criminal Justice, 33, 177-189.
    • (2005) Journal of Criminal Justice , vol.33 , pp. 177-189
    • Lussier, P.1    Leblanc, M.2    Proulx, J.3
  • 38
    • 15844364011 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Criminal propensity, deviant sexual interests and criminal activity of sexual aggressors of women: A comparison of explanatory models
    • Lussier, P., Proulx, J., & LeBlanc, M. (2005). Criminal propensity, deviant sexual interests and criminal activity of sexual aggressors of women: A comparison of explanatory models. Criminology, 43, 249-281.
    • (2005) Criminology , vol.43 , pp. 249-281
    • Lussier, P.1    Proulx, J.2    Leblanc, M.3
  • 39
    • 85016442501 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Sex offender next door: An analysis of recidivism, risk factors, and deterrence of sex offenders on probation
    • Meloy, M. L. (2005). Sex offender next door: An analysis of recidivism, risk factors, and deterrence of sex offenders on probation. Criminal Justice Policy Review, 16, 211-236.
    • (2005) Criminal Justice Policy Review , vol.16 , pp. 211-236
    • Meloy, M.L.1
  • 40
    • 0027673750 scopus 로고
    • Adolescence-limited and life-course-persistent antisocial behavior: A developmental taxonomy
    • Moffitt, T. E. (1993). Adolescence-limited and life-course-persistent antisocial behavior: A developmental taxonomy. Psychological Review, 100, 674-701.
    • (1993) Psychological Review , vol.100 , pp. 674-701
    • Moffitt, T.E.1
  • 41
    • 0034415983 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Population heterogeneity and state dependence: State of the evidence and directions for future research
    • Nagin, D., & Paternoster, R. (2000). Population heterogeneity and state dependence: State of the evidence and directions for future research. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 16, 117-144.
    • (2000) Journal of Quantitative Criminology , vol.16 , pp. 117-144
    • Nagin, D.1    Paternoster, R.2
  • 43
    • 0037989948 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The hare and the tortoise: Dangerousness and sex offender policy in the United States and Canada
    • Petrunik, M. (2003). The hare and the tortoise: Dangerousness and sex offender policy in the United States and Canada. Canadian Journal of Criminology and Criminal Justice, 45, 43-72.
    • (2003) Canadian Journal of Criminology and Criminal Justice , vol.45 , pp. 43-72
    • Petrunik, M.1
  • 45
    • 33947400264 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Effect of age-at-release on long term sexual re-offense rates in civilly committed sexual offenders
    • Prentky, R. A., & Lee, A. F. S. (2007). Effect of age-at-release on long term sexual re-offense rates in civilly committed sexual offenders. Sexual Abuse: Journal of Research and Treatment, 19, 43-59.
    • (2007) Sexual Abuse: Journal of Research and Treatment , vol.19 , pp. 43-59
    • Prentky, R.A.1    Lee, A.F.S.2
  • 46
    • 70350762601 scopus 로고
    • Sur l'Homme et le Développement de ses Facultés, ou Essai de Physique Sociale (Vol. 2)
    • Bruxelles: Louis Hauman et Comp
    • Quetelet, A. (1836). Sur l'Homme et le Développement de ses Facultés, ou Essai de Physique Sociale (Vol. 2) [An essay on man and the development of his faculty (Vol. 2)]. Bruxelles: Louis Hauman et Comp.
    • (1836) An Essay on Man and the Development of His Faculty (Vol. 2)
    • Quetelet, A.1
  • 50
    • 0032258608 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Managing the monstrous: Sex offenders and the new penology
    • Simon, J. (1998). Managing the monstrous: Sex offenders and the new penology. Psychology, Public Policy, and Law, 4, 452-467.
    • (1998) Psychology, Public Policy, and Law , vol.4 , pp. 452-467
    • Simon, J.1
  • 51
    • 0035657032 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Actuarial assessment of sex offender recidivism risk: A cross-validation of the RRASOR and the Static-99 in Sweden
    • Sjöstedt, G., & Långström, N. (2001). Actuarial assessment of sex offender recidivism risk: A cross-validation of the RRASOR and the Static-99 in Sweden. Law and Human Behavior, 25, 629-645.
    • (2001) Law and Human Behavior , vol.25 , pp. 629-645
    • Sjöstedt, G.1    Långström, N.2
  • 52
    • 0023890867 scopus 로고
    • Measuring the Accuracy of Diagnostic Systems
    • Swets, J. A.(1988). Measuring the accuracy of diagnostic systems. Science,240, 1285-1293.
    • (1988) Science , vol.240 , pp. 1285-1293
    • Swets, J.A.1
  • 54
    • 77956890008 scopus 로고
    • Martingale-based residuals for survival models
    • Therneau, T. M., Grambsch, P. M., & Fleming, T. R. (1990). Martingale-based residuals for survival models. Biometrika, 77, 147-160.
    • (1990) Biometrika , vol.77 , pp. 147-160
    • Therneau, T.M.1    Grambsch, P.M.2    Fleming, T.R.3
  • 55
    • 0002438118 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Introduction: Some advantages of developmental and life course perspectives for the study of crime and delinquency
    • In T. P. Thornberry (Ed.), New Brunswick, NJ: Transaction Publishers
    • Thornberry, T.P. (1997). Introduction: Some advantages of developmental and life course perspectives for the study of crime and delinquency. In T. P. Thornberry (Ed.), Developmental theories of crime and delinquency (pp. 1-11). New Brunswick, NJ: Transaction Publishers.
    • (1997) Developmental Theories of Crime and Delinquency , pp. 1-11
    • Thornberry, T.P.1
  • 56
    • 27644447237 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Explaining multiple patterns of offending across the life course and across generations
    • Thornberry, T. P. (2005). Explaining multiple patterns of offending across the life course and across generations. Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 602, 156-195.
    • (2005) Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science , vol.602 , pp. 156-195
    • Thornberry, T.P.1
  • 58
    • 0023829727 scopus 로고
    • Two empirical regularities (maybe) in search of an explanation: Commentary on the age/crime debate
    • Tittle, C. R. (1988). Two empirical regularities (maybe) in search of an explanation: Commentary on the age/crime debate. Criminology, 26, 75-85.
    • (1988) Criminology , vol.26 , pp. 75-85
    • Tittle, C.R.1
  • 60
    • 33644896227 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Low base rates limit expert certainty when current actuarials are used to identify sexually-violent predators
    • Wollert, R. (2006). Low base rates limit expert certainty when current actuarials are used to identify sexually-violent predators. Psychology, Public Policy, and Law, 12, 56-85.
    • (2006) Psychology, Public Policy, and Law , vol.12 , pp. 56-85
    • Wollert, R.1
  • 61
    • 85044805190 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Sex offender community notification: Its role in recidivism and offender reintegration
    • Zevitz, R. G. (2006). Sex offender community notification: Its role in recidivism and offender reintegration. Criminal Justice Studies, 19, 193-208.
    • (2006) Criminal Justice Studies , vol.19 , pp. 193-208
    • Zevitz, R.G.1
  • 62
    • 0027216912 scopus 로고
    • Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) plots: A fundamental tool in clinical medicine
    • Zweig, M. H., & Campbell, G. (1993). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) plots: A fundamental tool in clinical medicine. Clinical Chemistry, 39, 1589.
    • (1993) Clinical Chemistry , vol.39 , pp. 1589
    • Zweig, M.H.1    Campbell, G.2


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.