Dynamic Risk Assessment in Sexual Offenders Using STABLE-2000 and the STABLE-2007: An Investigation of Predictive and Incremental Validity

Sexual Abuse: Journal of Research and Treatment

Volumn 24, Issue 1, 2012, Pages 5-28

  Eher, Reinhard ^a,b   Matthes, Anna ^c   Schilling, Frank ^a   Haubner MacLean, Tanja ^a   Rettenberger, Martin ^a  

^a Federal Evaluation Centre for Violent and Sexual Offenders (FECVSO)   (Austria)

^b UNIVERSITY OF ULM   (Germany)

^c Jugendanstalt Hameln   (Germany)

Author keywords

incremental validity; predictive validity; sex offender; SORAG; STABLE 2000; STABLE 2007; STATIC 99

Indexed keywords

EID: 84857870158     PISSN: 10790632     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1177/1079063211403164     Document Type: Article

References (48)

1. Backhaus K.,Erichson B.,Plinke W.,Weiber R.Multivariate Analysemethoden. Eine anwendungsorientierte Einführung. Berlin, Germany: Springer; 2006:.
2. Barbaree H. E.,Blanchard R.Sexual deviance: Theory, assessment, and treatment. Laws D. R.O'Donohue W. T., ed. New York, NY: Guilford; 2008:.
3. Barbaree H. E.,Seto M. C.,Lanton C. M.,Peacock E. J.Evaluating the predictive accuracy of six risk assessment instruments for adult sex offenders.Criminal Justice and Behavior. 2001;28:490-521.
4. Beggs S. M.,Grace R. C.Assessment of dynamic risk factors: an independent validation study of the Violence Risk Scale: Sexual offender version.Sex Abuse: A Journal of Research and Treatment. 2010;22:234-251.
5. Boer D. P.,Hart S. D.,Kropp P. R.,Webster C. D.Manual for the sexual violence risk-20 (SVR-20): Professional guidelines for assessing risk of sexual violence. Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada: British Columbia Institute Against Family Violence; 1997:.
6. BontaJ.AndrewsD. A. (2008). Risk-need-responsivity model for offender assessement and rehabilitation. Public Safety Canada. Retrieved from http://www.ps-sp.gc.ca/res/cor/rep/_fl/Risk_Need_2007-06_e.pdf.
7. Dowden C.,Antonowicz D.,Andrews D. A.The effectiveness of relapse prevention with offenders: A meta-analysis.International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology. 2003;47:516-528.
8. Ducro C.,Pham T.Evaluation of the SORAG and the STATIC-99 on Belgian sex offenders committed to a forensic facility.Sex Abuse: A Journal of Research and Treatment. 2006;18:15-26.
9. Eher R.,Rettenberger M.,Matthes A.Aktuarische Prognose bei Sexualstraftätern. Ergebnisse einer prospektiven Studie mit 785 Tätern unter besonderer Berücksichtigung von relevanten Tätergruppen und Rückfallketegorie.Monatsschrift für Kriminologie und Strafrechtsreform. 2009;92:18-27.
10. EherR.RettenbergerM.MatthesA.SchillingF. (2010). Stable dynamic risk factors in child sexual abusers: The incremental predictive power of Narcissistic personality traits beyond the STATIC-99/STABLE-2007 priority categories on sexual reoffense. Sexual Offender Treatment. Retrieved from http://www.sexual-offender-treatment.org/2-2010_02.html.
11. EherR.RettenbergerM.SchillingF.PfaefflinF. (2008). Failure of STATIC-99 and SORAG to predict relevant reoffense categories in relevant sexual offender subtypes: A prospective study. Sexual Offender Treatment. Retrieved from http://www.sexual-offender-treatment.org/1-2008_02.html.
12. Endrass J.,Urbaniok F.,Held L.,Vetter S.,Rossegger A.Accuracy of the STATIC-99 in predicting recidivism in Switzerland.International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology. 2009;53:482-490.
13. Gail M. H.,Pfeiffer R. M.On criteria for evaluating models of absolute risk.Biostatistics. 2005;6:227-239.
14. Grubin D.Sex offending against children: Understanding the risk (Police Research Series). London, UK: Home Office; 1998:.
15. Hanson R. K.The development of a brief actuarial risk scale for sexual offense recidivism. Ottawa, Ontario: Department of the Solicitor General of Canada; 1997:.
16. Hanson R. K.Recidivism and age follow-up data from 4,673 sexual offenders.Journal of Interpersonal Violence. 2002;17:1046-1062.
17. Hanson R. K.Does STATIC-99 predict recidivism among older sexual offenders?.Sex Abuse: A Journal of Research and Treatment. 2006;18:343-355.
18. Hanson R. K.,Bussiere M. T.Predicting relapse: A meta-analysis of sexual offender recidivism studies.Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology. 1998;66:348-362.
19. Hanson R. K.,Harris A. J. R.Where should we intervene?.Criminal Justice and Behavior. 2000;27:6-35.
20. Hanson R. K.,Harris A. J.A structured approach to evaluating change among sexual offenders.Sex Abuse: A Journal of Research and Treatment. 2001;13:105-122.
21. HansonR. K.HarrisA. J. R. (2004). Scoring manuals for the Dynamic Supervision Project. Unpublished scoring manuals.
22. HansonR. K.HarrisA. J. RScottT. L.HelmusL. (2007). Assessing the risk of sexual offenders on community supervision: The Dynamic Supervision Project (Corrections research user report 2007-05). Ottawa, Ontario: Public Safety Canada. Retrieved from http://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/res/cor/rep/_fl/crp2007-05-en.pdf.
23. Hanson R. K.,Helmus L.,Thornton D.Predicting recidivism amongst sexual offenders: A multi-site study of STATIC-2002.Law and Human Behavior. 2010;34:198-211.
24. Hanson R. K.,Morton-Bourgon K. E.The characteristics of persistent sexual offenders: A meta-analysis of recidivism studies.Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology. 2005;73:1154-1163.
25. Hanson R. K.,Morton-Bourgon K. E.The accuracy of recidivism risk assessments for sexual offenders: A meta-analysis of 118 prediction studies.Psychological Assessment. 2009;21:1-21.
26. Hanson R. K.,Thornton D.Improving risk assessments for sex offenders: A comparison of three actuarial scales.Law and Human Behavior. 2000;24:119-136.
27. Hare R. D.Manual for the psychopathy-checklist-revised. Toronto, Ontario, Canada: Multi Health Systems; 1991:.
28. Harris A. J. R.,Hanson R. K.Clinical, actuarial, and dynamic risk assessment of sexual offenders: Why do things keep changing?.Journal of Sexual Aggression. 2010;13:296-310.
29. HarrisA. J. RPhenixA.HansonR. K.ThorntonD. (2003). STATIC-99 coding rules revised-2003. Ottawa, Ontario: Department of the Solicitor General of Canada. Retrieved from http://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/res/cor/rep/_fl/2003-03-stc-cde-eng.pdf.
30. Harris G. T.,Rice M. E.Actuarial assessment of risk among sex offenders.Annals. New York Academy of Sciences. 2003;989:198-210.
31. Harris G. T.,Rice M. E.Adjusting actuarial violence risk assessments based on aging and the passage of time.Criminal Justice and Behavior. 2007;34:297-313.
32. Harris G. T.,Rice M. E.,Quinsey V. L.,Lalumiere M. L.,Boer D.,Lang C.A multisite comparison of actuarial risk instruments for sex offenders.Psychological Assessment. 2003;15:413-425.
33. HelmusL.BabchisinK. M.HansonR. K.ThorntonD. (2010). STATIC-99-R: Revised age weights. Retrieved from http://www.static99.org/pdfdocs/static-99randage20091005.pdf.
34. Lussier P.,Deslauriers-Varin N.,Ratel T.A descriptive profile of high-risk sex offenders under intensive supervision in the province of British Columbia, Canada.International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology. 2010;54:71-91.
35. Mann R. E.,Hanson R. K.,Thornton D.Assessing risk for sexual recidivism: some proposals on the nature of psychologically meaningful risk factors.Sex Abuse: A Journal of Research and Treatment. 2010;22:191-217.
36. Olver M. E.,Wong S. C.,Nicholaichuk T.,Gordon A.The validity and reliability of the violence risk scale-sexual offender version: Assessing sex offender risk and evaluating therapeutic change.Psychological Assessment. 2007;19:318-329.
37. PhenixA.DorenD.HelmusL.HansonC. L.ThorntonD. (2009). Coding rules for STATIC-2002. Retrieved from http://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/res/cor/rep/_fl/sttc-2002-eng.pdf.
38. Quinsey V. L.,Coleman G.,Jones B.,Altrows I.Proximal antecedents of eloping and reoffending among supervised mentally disordered offenders.Journal of Interpersonal Violence. 1997;12:794-813.
39. Quinsey V. L.,Harris G. T.,Rice M. E.,Cormier C. A.Violent offenders-Appraising and managing risk. 1998). Violent offenders-Appraising and managing risk (1st ed.). Washington DC: American Psychological Association.Washington DC: American Psychological Association; 1998:.
40. Quinsey V. L.,Harris A. J.,Rice M. E.,Cormier B. M.Violent offenders: Appraising and managing risk. 2006). Violent offenders: Appraising and managing risk (2nd ed.). Washington DC: American Psychological Association.Washington DC: American Psychological Association; 2006:.
41. Rettenberger M.,Eher R.Die deutsche Übersetzung und Adaptierung des STATIC-99 zur aktuarischen Kriminalprognose verurteilter Sexualstraftäter.Monatsschrift für Kriminologie und Strafrechtsreform. 2006;89:352-365.
42. RettenbergerM.EherR. (2007). Predicting reoffence in sexual offender subtypes: A prospective validation study of the german version of the sexual offender risk appraisal guide (SORAG). Sexual Offender Treatment. Retrieved from http://www.sexual-offender-treatment.org/51.html.
43. Rettenberger M.,Matthes A.,Boer D. P.,Eher R.Prospective actuarial risk assessment: A comparison of five risk assessment instruments in different sexual offender subtypes.International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology. 2010;54:169-186.
44. Rice M. E.,Harris G. T.Violent recidivism: Assessing predictive validity.Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology. 1995;63:737-748.
45. Seto M. C.Is more better? Combining actuarial risk scales to predict recidivism among adult sex offenders.Psychological Assessment. 2005;17:156-167.
46. Seto M. C.,Harris G. T.,Rice M. E.,Barbaree H. E.The screening scale for pedophilic interests predicts recidivism among adult sex offenders with child victims.Archives of Sexual Behavior. 2004;33:455-466.
47. Sjostedt G.,Langstrom N.Actuarial assessment of sex offender recidivism risk: A cross-validation of the RRASOR and the STATIC-99 in Sweden.Law and Human Behavior. 2001;25:629-645.
48. Wilson R. J.Emotional congruence in sexual offenders against children.Sexual Abuse: A Journal of Research and Treatment. 1999;11:33-47.