Proxy models for election forecasting: The 2012 French test

French Politics

Volumn 10, Issue 1, 2012, Pages 1-10

  Nadeau, Richard ^a   Lewis Beck, Michael S ^b   Bélanger, Éric ^c  

^a UNIVERSITÉ DE MONTRÉAL   (Canada)

^b UNIVERSITY OF IOWA   (United States)

^c MCGILL UNIVERSITY   (Canada)

Author keywords

Election forecasting; Forecasting theory; French elections; French presidential elections; Proxy models

Indexed keywords

EID: 84857833219     PISSN: 14763419     EISSN: 14763427     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1057/fp.2011.20     Document Type: Conference Paper

References (18)

1. Auberger, A. (2010) Popularity and vote: Forecasting the 2007 French presidential election. Canadian Journal of Political Science 43(1): 123-136.
2. Bélanger, É ., Lewis-Beck, M.S. and Nadeau, R. (2005) A political economy forecast for the 2005 British General Election. British Journal of Politics and International Relations 7(2): 191-198. (Pubitemid 40595141)
3. Evans, J. and Ivaldi, G. (2008) Forecasting the extreme right vote in France (1984-2007). French Politics 6(2): 137-151.
4. Jérôme, B. and Jérôme-Speziari, V. (2004) Forecasting the 2002 elections: Lessons from a politicoeconomy model. In: M.S. Lewis-Beck (ed.) The French Voter: Before and After the 2002 Elections. Basingstoke, UK: Palgrave Macmillan, pp. 178-204.
5. Jérôme, B. and Jérôme-Spé ziari, V. (2010) Fonctions de vote et prévisions é lectorales: une application à la présidentielle française de 2007. Canadian Journal of Political Science 43(1): 163-186.
6. Kennedy, P. (2003) Guide to Econometrics, 5th edn. New York: Wiley.
7. Kmenta, J. (1997) Elements of Econometrics, 2nd edn. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press.
8. Lafay, J.-D. (1985) Political change and the stability of the popularity function: The French General Election of 1981. In: H. Eulau and M.S. Lewis-Beck (eds.) Economic Conditions and Electoral Outcomes: The United States and Western Europe. New York: Agathon Press, pp. 78-97.
9. Lafay, J.-D., Facchini, F. and Auberger, A. (2007) Modè les politico-économétriques et prévisions électorales pour mai 2007. Revue française d'économie 21(4): 5-23.
10. Lemennicier, B., Lescieux-Katir, H. and Grofman, B. (2010) The 2007 French presidential election. Canadian Journal of Political Science 43(1): 137-161.
11. Lewis-Beck, M.S. (2005) Election forecasting: Principles and practice. British Journal of Politics and International Relations 7(2): 145-164. (Pubitemid 40595138)
12. Lewis-Beck, M.S., Bélanger, É . and Fauvelle-Aymar, C. (2008) Forecasting the 2007 French presidential election: Ségolène Royal and the Iowa Model. French Politics 6(2): 106-115.
13. Lewis-Beck, M.S., Nadeau, R. and Bélanger, É . (2011a) Nowcasting V. Polling: The 2010 UK election trials. Electoral Studies 30(2): 284-287.
14. Lewis-Beck, M.S., Nadeau, R. and Bélanger, É . (2011b) French Presidential Elections. Basingstoke, UK: Palgrave Macmillan.
15. Lewis-Beck, M.S. and Rice, T. (1992) Forecasting Elections. Washington DC: Congressional Quarterly Press.
16. Nadeau, R., Bélanger, É ., Lewis-Beck, M.S., Cautrè s, B. and Foucault, M. (2011) Le vote des Français de Mitterrand à Sarkozy. Paris: Presses de Sciences Po.
17. Nadeau, R., Lewis-Beck, M.S. and Bélanger, É . (2009) Election forecasting in the United Kingdom: A two-step model. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties 19(3): 333-358.
18. Nadeau, R., Lewis-Beck, M.S. and Bélanger, É . (2010) Electoral forecasting in France: A multiequation solution. International Journal of Forecasting 26(1): 11-18.