Tsunami hazard posed to New Zealand by the Kermadec and southern New Hebrides subduction margins: An assessment based on plate boundary kinematics, interseismic coupling, and historical seismicity

Pure and Applied Geophysics

Volumn 169, Issue 1-2, 2012, Pages 1-36

  Power, William ^a   Wallace, Laura ^a   Wang, Xiaoming ^a   Reyners, Martin ^a  

^a GNS SCIENCE   (New Zealand)

Author keywords

Earthquake scenarios; Kermadec Arc; Logic tree; New Hebrides; New Zealand; Tsunami

Indexed keywords

EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO; KERMADEC ARC; LOGIC-TREE; NEW HEBRIDES; NEW ZEALAND;

FORESTRY; HAZARDS; KINEMATICS; STRAIN RATE; TSUNAMIS;

EARTHQUAKES;

CONTINENTAL MARGIN; EARTHQUAKE CATALOGUE; EARTHQUAKE EVENT; EARTHQUAKE MAGNITUDE; FREQUENCY-MAGNITUDE DISTRIBUTION; HAZARD ASSESSMENT; KINEMATICS; PLATE BOUNDARY; SEISMICITY; SLIP; STRAIN; SUBDUCTION ZONE; TRENCH; TSUNAMI;

EARTH MOVEMENT; HAZARDS; NEW ZEALAND; STRAINS;

COROMANDEL PENINSULA; NEW ZEALAND; NORTH ISLAND; NORTHLAND; PACIFIC OCEAN; PACIFIC OCEAN (SOUTHWEST); WAIKATO;

EID: 84857437300     PISSN: 00334553     EISSN: 14209136     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s00024-011-0299-x     Document Type: Review

References (97)

1. Abe, K. (1975). Reliable estimation of the seismic moment of large earthquakes. J. Phys. Earth, 23, 381-390.
2. Altamimi, Z., Sillard, P. and Boucher C., ITRF 2000: A new release of the International Terrestrial Reference Frame for earth science applications, J. Geophys. Res., 107(130), 2214, doi:10.1029/2001J1200561, 2002.
3. Annaka, T., Satake, K., Sakakiyama, T., Yanagisawa, K., Shuto, N. (2007) Logic-Tree approach for probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis and its applications to the Japanese coasts. Pure Appl Geophys 164, 577-592
4. Auzende J.M., Pelletier, B., Lafoy Y. (1994) Twin active spreading ridges in the North Fiji Basin, Geology 22, 63-66.
5. Beavan, J., Tregoning, P., Bevis, M., Kato, T., Meertens, C. (2002), Motion and rigidity of the Pacific Plate and implications for plate boundary deformation, Journal of Geophysical Research, 107(130), 2261, doi:10.1029/2001J1200282
6. Bevis, M., Taylor, F.W., Schutz, B.E., Recy, J., Isacks, B.L., Helu, S., Singh, R., Kendrick, E., Stowell, J., Taylor, B., and Calmant, S. (1995), Geodetic observations of very rapid convergence and back-arc extension at the Tonga arc: Nature, v. 374, p. 249-251.
7. Berryman, K. (Compiler), 2005. "Review of Tsunami Hazard and Risk in New Zealand". Institute of Geological & Nuclear Sciences, Client Report 2005/104, Wellington
8. Bird, P. (2003), An updated digital model of plate boundaries, Geochem. Geophys. Geosyst., 4(3), doi:10.1029/2001GC000252.
9. Bonnardot, M.-A, Regnier, M., Ruellan, E., Christova, C. and Tric, E. (2007), Seismicity and state of stress within the overriding plate of the Tonga-Kermadec subduction zone, Tectonics, doi:10.1029/2006TC002044
10. Bossu, R. (2000), A simple approach to contrain the position and the geometry of the seisogenic structures: application to the Karthan volcano (Grande Comores Island, Mozambique Channel), J. Seismol., 4, 41-48.
11. Calmant, S., Pelletier, B., Lebellegard, P., Bevis, M., Taylor, F.W., Phillips, D.A. (2003), New insights on the tectonics along the New Hebrides subduction zone based on GPS results: J. Geophys. Res., v. 108(18), doi:10.1029/2001J1200644.
12. Cho, Y.-S. (1995). Numerical simulations of tsunami and runup. PhD thesis, Cornell University.
13. DeMets, C., R.G. Gordon, and D. Argus (2010), Geologically current plate motions, Geophys. J. Int., doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2009.04491.x
14. de Ronde, C. E. J., Baker, E. T., Massoth, G. J., Lupton, J. E., Wright, I. C., Sparks, R. J., Bannister, S. C., Reyners, M. E., Walker, S. L., Greene, R. R., Ishibashi, J., Faure, K., Resing, J. A. and Lebon, G. T. (2007). Submarine hydrothermal activity along the mid-Kermadec Arc, New Zealand: large-scale effects on venting. Geochem. Geophys. Geosyst. 8, Q07007, doi: 10.1029/2006GC001495.
15. Delteil, J., Ruellan, E., Wright, I., and Matsumoto, T. (2002), Structure and structural development of the Havre Trough (SW Pacific), J. Geophys. Res., 107(B8), doi:10.1029/2001J1200494.
16. Downes, G.L., Webb, T.H., McSaveney, M., Darby, D., Doser, D., Chague-Goff, C. & Barnett, A. (2000). The March 25 and May 17 1947 Gisborne earthquuakes and tsunami: implication for tsunami hazard for east coast, North Island, New Zealand, in Tsunami Risk Assessment Beyond 2000:Theory, Practice and Plans, pp. 55-67, eds Gusiakov, V.K., Levin, B.W.& Yak-ovenko, O.I., Moscow.
17. Duda, S.J. (1965), Secular seismic energy release in the circum-Pacific belt. Tectonophysics, vol. 2, no. 5, p. 409-452.
18. Dziewonski, A.M., and Woodhouse, J.H (1983), Studies of the seismic source using normal-mode theory, in: Kanamori, H., and Boscie, E., eds. Earthquakes: Observation, Theory, and Interpretation: Notes from the International School of Physics 'Enrico Fermi' (1982: Varenna, Italy), pp. 45-137, North Holland Publishing Co., Amsterdam.
19. Engdahl, E., Van der Hilst, R., and Buland, R. (1998), Global teleseismic earthquake relocation with improved travel times and procedures for depth determination, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 88, 722-743.
20. Feigl, K., Agnew, D., Bock, Y., Dong, D., Donnellan, A., Hager, B., et al. (1993). Space geodetic measurement of crustal deformation in central and southern California, 1984-1992. J. geophys. Res, 98 (132), 1677-712.
21. Freund, L.B. and Barnett, D.M., (1976). A two-dimensional analysis of surface deformation due to dip-slip faulting, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 66, 667-675.
22. Gagnon, K., Chadwell, C.D., and Norabuena, E. (2005), Measuring the onset of locking in the Peru-Chile Trench with GPS and acoustic instruments, Nature, 434, 205-208.
23. Geist, E.L. (2002). Complex earthquake rupture and local tsunami. Journal of Geophysical Research, 107, B5, doi: 10.1029/2000JB000139.
24. Geist, E.L. & Dmowska, R., (1999). Local tsunamis and distributed slip at the source, Pure Appl. Geophys., 154, 485-512.
25. Geist, E.L., and Parsons, T. (2006). Probabilistic analysis of tsunami hazards. Natural Hazards 37, 277-314.
26. Goff, J.R. (2008). The New Zealand Palaeotsunami Database. NIWA Technical Report 131. database.
27. Goff, J., Pearce, S., Nichol, S.L., Chagué-Goff, C., Horrocks, M. and Strotz, L. (2010), Multi-proxy records of regionally-sources tsunamis, New Zealand. Geomorphology, 118, 369-382.
28. Grapes, R. and Downes, G. (1997): The 1855 Wairarapa, New Zealand, earthquake-analysis of historical data. Bulletin of the New Zealand National Society for Earthquake Engineering 30: 271-368.
29. Greenhough, J. and Main, I.G., (2008). A Poisson model for earthquake frequency uncertainties in seismic hazard analysis, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, doi:10.1029/2008GL035353.
30. Gutenberg, B. (1956), Great Earthquakes, 1896-1903; Transactions of the American Geophysical Society, Vol 37, p603-614.
31. Hanks, T.C. and Bakun, W.H. (2002), A bilinear source-scaling model for M-log A observations of continental earthquakes, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 92(5), 1841-1846, illus. incl. 1 table, 28 refs.
32. Hayes, G.P. and Furlong, K.P. (2010), Quantifying potential tsunami hazard in the Puysegur subduction zone, south of New Zealand, Geophysical Journal International, 183, 3, 1512-1524
33. Heck, N. (1947), List of seismic sea waves, Bull. Seism. Soc. Amer. 37, 269-286.
34. Herring, T.A., Davis, J.L., Shapiro, I.I. (1990), Geodesy by radio interferometry: The application of Kalman filtering to the analysis of very long baseline interferometry data, Journal of Geophysical Research, 95, 12561-12581.
35. Herring, T.A., (2001), GLOBK global Kalman filter VLBI and GPS analysis program, version 5.03, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge.
36. Iida, K., Cox, D. C., and Pararas-Carayannis, G., (1967), Preliminary catalog of tsunamis occurring in the Pacific Ocean. HIG 67-10, Hawaii Institute of Geophysics, University of Hawaii, Honolulu.
37. Kagan, Y. Y., (2002), Seismic moment distribution revisited: II. Moment conservation principle, Geophys. J. Int. 149, 731-754.
38. Kennett, B.L.N. and Cummins, P.R. (2005), The relationship of the seismic source and subduction zone structure for the 2004 December 26 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake, Earth and Planetary Science Letters, Volume 239, Issues 1-2, 30, Pages 1-8,
39. King, R.W., and Bock, Y. (2002), Documentation for the GAMIT GPS analysis software, release 10.04, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts.
40. Lander, J. F., and Lockridge, P.A. (1989), United States Tsunamis (Including United States Possessions) 1690-1988, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Geophysical Data Center, Boulder, Colorado, USA, Publication 41-2, 265 p.
41. Lay, T., and Schwartz, S.Y. (2004), comment on "Coupling semantics and science in earthquake research", Eos Trans. AGU, 85(36), 339-340.
42. Lawver, L.A., Hawkins, J.W. and Sclater, J. G. (1976), Magnetic anomalies and crustal dilation in the Lau Basin, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 33, 27-35.
43. Leonard, T., Papasouliotis, O. and Main, I.G. (2001). A Poisson model for identifying the characteristic size effects in frequency data: Application to frequency-size distributions for global earthquakes, "starquakes", and fault lengths, J. Geophys. Res., 106, 13,473-13,484.
44. Liu, P.L.-F., Cho, Y. -S. and Fujima, K. (1994). Numerical solutions of three-dimensional run-up on a circular island, Proceedings of International Symposium: Waves-Physical and Numerical Modelling, pp. 1031-1040, Canada.
45. Liu, P. L.-F., Cho, Y.-S., Yoon, S. B. and Seo, S. N. (1994). Numerical simulations of the 1960 chilean tsunami propagation and inundation at hilo, hawaii. In Recent Development inTsunami Research, pages 99-115. Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1994.
46. Liu, P. L.-F., Cho, Y-S., Briggs, M.J., Synolakis, C.E., and Kanoglu, U. (1995), "Run-up of Solitary Waves on a Circular Island", J. Fluid Mechanics, 302, 259-285.
47. Lomnitz, C. (1974), Development in Geotectonics #5, Global Tectonics and Earthquake Risk, Elsevier Scientific Publishing Co., Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
48. Lundgren, P. R., Okal, E. A., and Wiens, D. A. (1989), Rupture Characteristics of the 1982 Tonga and 1986 Kermadec Earthquakes, J. Geophys. Res. 94, 15521-15539.
49. Main, I., (2000). Apparent breaks in scaling in the earthquake cumulative frequency-magnitude distribution: Fact or artifact?, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 90, 86-97.
50. McCaffrey, R. (2002), Crustal block rotations and plate coupling: in Stein, S., and Freymueller, J., eds., Plate Boundary Zones, AGU Geodynamics Series v. 30, p. 100-122.
51. McCaffrey, R. (2007), The Next Great Earthquake, Science 23 March 2007 315: 1675-1676.
52. McCaffrey, R., Long, M.D., Goldfinger, C., Zwick, P.C., Nabelek, J.L., Johnson, C.K., and Smith, C. (2000), Rotation and plate locking at the southern Cascadia subduction zone, Geo-phys. Res. Lett., 27, 3117-3120.
53. McCann, W.R., Nishenko, S.P., Sykes, L.R. and Krause, J. (1979). Seismic gaps and plate tectonics: seismic potential for major boundaries. Pure Appl Geophys 117: 1082-1147.
54. McClusky, S., and 27 others (2000), Global Positioning System constraints on plate kinematics and dynamics in the eastern Mediterranean and Caucasus, Journal of Geophysical Research, 105, 5695-5719.
55. National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) (2010), 1971 to present Preliminary Determination of Epicenters (PDE), a weekly and monthly publication, National Earthquake Information Center, U.S. Geological Survey, Golden, Colorado.
56. Nicholson, T., (2006). Application of 3D empirical travel times to routine event location. Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors, 158, 67-74.
57. Nishenko, S. P. (1991) Circum-Pacific seismic potential- 1989-1999. Pure Appl. Geophys. 135, 169-259.
58. Okada, Y., (1985). Surface deformation due to shear and tensile faults in a half-space, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 75, 1135-1154.
59. Okal, E.A., Borrero, J.C., Synolakis, C.E.(2006) Evaluation of Tsunami Risk from Regional Earthquakes at Pisco, Peru, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 96: 1634-1648
60. Okal, E.A., and Synolakis, C.E., (2004), Source discriminants for nearfield tsunamis, Geophysical Journal International, 158, 899-912.
61. Parson, L. M. and Hawkins, J.W. (1994), Two-stage ridge propagation and the geological history of the Lau back-arc basin, Proc. Ocean Drill. Program Sci. Results, 135, 819-828.
62. Pelletier, B. and Louat, R. (1989), Seismotectonics and present-day relative plate motions in the Tonga-Lau and Kermadec-Havre region, Tectonophysics, 165, 237-250.
63. Pelletier, B., Calmant, S. and Pillet, R. (1998), Current tectonics of the Tonga-New Hebrides region: Earth and Planetary Sci. Letters, 164, p. 263-276.
64. Power, W., Downes, G., McSaveney, M., Beavan, J., and Hancox, G. (2005), The Fiordland earthquake and tsunami, New Zealand, 21 August 2003. In Tsunamis: Case Studies and Recent Developments, vol. 23 of the series Advances in Natural and Technological Hazards Research, (Springer, New York, VIII).
65. Power, W., Downes, G. and Stirling, M., (2007) Estimation of Tsunami Hazard in New Zealand due to South American Earthquakes, Pure appl. geophys. 164 p 547-564
66. Power, W.; Wallace, L., and Reyners, M., (2008) Tsunami hazard posed by earthquakes on the Hikurangi subduction zone interface, GNS Science Consultancy report 2008/40.
67. Prasetya, G., Beavan, J., Wang, X., Reyners, M., Power, W., Wilson, K., and Lukovic, B., (2011), Evaluation of the 15 July 2009 Fiordland, New Zealand, tsunami in the source region, Pure appl. geophys., doi:10.1007/s00024-011-0282-6
68. Press, W.H., Flannery, B.P., Teukolsky, S.A., and Vetterling, W.T. (1989), Numerical Recipes: Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
69. Richter, C.F. (1958), Elementary Seismology, W.H. Freeman and Company, San Fransisco, CA.
70. Romanowicz, B. (1992), Strike-slip earthquakes on quasi-vertical transcurrent faults: Inferences for general scaling relations, Geophys. Res. Lett. 19, 481-484.
71. Romanowicz, B. (1994), Comment on 'A reappraisal of large earthquake scaling' by C. Scholz, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 84, 1675-1676.
72. Rudnicki, J.W. & Wu, M., (1995). Mechanics of dip-slip faulting in an elastic half-space, J. Geophys. Res., 100, 22,173-22186.
73. Satake, K. and Tanioka, Y. (1995), Tsunami generation of the 1993 Hokkaido-Nansei-Oki earthquake Pure and Appl. Geophys. 144, (3/4), 803-822.
74. Scherwath, M., Kopp, H., Flueh, E. R., Henrys, S. A. and Sutherland, R. (2008), Structure and Deformation of the Hikurangi-Kermadec Subduction Zone - Transitions Revealed by Seismic Wide-angle Data. Eos Trans. AGU, 2008 Fall Meeting. Suppl., Abstract T23A-1997.
75. Scholz, C.H. (1982), Scaling laws for large earthquakes; consequences for physical models, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 72(1), 1-14
76. Scholz, C.H. (1990), The mechanics of earthquakes and faulting: New York, Cambridge University Press.
77. Schwartz, D. and Coppersmith, K. (1984), Fault Behavior and Characteristic Earthquakes: Examples From the Wasatch and San Andreas Fault Zones, J. Geophys. Res., 89(19), 5681-5698.
78. Shor, G.G., Kirk, H.K., and Menard, H. W., (1971). Crustal structure of the Melanesian area. J. Geophys. Res., 76, 2562-2586.
79. Soloviev, S.L., and Go, C. N. (1975) A catalogue of tsunamis on the eastern shore of the Pacific Ocean. Academy of Sciences of the USSR, Nauka Publishing House, Moscow. [Canadian Translation of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences No. 5078, 1984, translation available from Canada Institute for Scientific and Technical Information, National Research Council, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada K1A OS2.]
80. Subarya, C, Chlieh, M., Prawirodirdjo, L., Avouac, J., Bock, Y., Sieh, K., Meltzner, A J., Natawidjaja, D H. and McCaffrey, R. (2006). "Plate-boundary deformation associated with the great Sumatra-Andaman earthquake." Nature, 440, 46-51
81. Takahashi, To., Takahashi, Ta., Shuto, N., Imamura, F. and Ortiz, M. (1995), Source models for the 1993 Hokkaido-Nansei-Oki earthquake tsunami Pure and Appl. Geophys. 144 (3/4), 747-768.
82. The Sydney Morning Herald, New South Wales, August 31, (1901a), An Island Cruise, A Tidal Wave. http://newspapers.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/article/14407034
83. The Sydney Morning Herald, New South Wales, September 4, (1901b), Volcanic Eruption at New Hebrides. http://newspapers.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/article/14407505
84. Taylor, F. W., Briggs, R. W., Frohlich, C., Brown, A., Hornbach, M. J., Papabatu, A. K., Meltzner, A. J. and Billy, D. (2008), Rupture across arc segment and plate boundaries in the 1 April 2007 Solomons earthquake, Nature Geoscience, 1, 253-257, doi: 10.1038/ngeo159.
85. Titov, V.V., (2009). Tsunami forecasting. Chapter 12 in The Sea, Volume 15: Tsunamis, Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA and London, England, 371-400.
86. Titov, V. V., Mofjeld, H. O., Gonźalez, F. I., and Newman, J. C. (1999), 'Offshore forecasting of Alaska-Aleutian Subduction Zone tsunamis in Hawaii'. NOAA Tech. Memo ERL PMEL-114, NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, WA.
87. Titov, V. V., Gonzalez, F. I., Bernard, E. N., Eble, M. C., Mofjeld, H. O., Newman, J. C. and Venturato, A. J. (2005), RealTime Tsunami Forecasting: Challenges and Solutions. Natural Hazards, 35(1): 35-41.
88. Titov, V. V. and C. E. Synolakis, (1997), Extreme inundation flows during the Hokkaido-Nansei-Oki tsunami. Geophys. Res. Lett. 24(11), 1315-1318.
89. Tregoning, P., Lambeck, K., Stoltz, A., Morgan, P., McClusky, S.C., van der Beek, P., McQueen, H., Jackson, R.J., Little, R.P., Laing, A., Murphy, B. (1998), Estimation of current plate motions in Papua New Guinea from Global Positioning System observations, Journal of Geophysical Research, 103, 12181-12203.
90. Walters, R. A., Goff, J. R., and Wang, K. (2006), Tsunamigenic sources in the Bay of Plenty, New Zealand, Sci. Tsu. Haz., 24, 339-357.
91. Wang, K., and Dixon, T. (2004), "Coupling" semantics and science in earthquake research, Eos Trans. AGU, 85:18, 180.
92. Wang, X. and Liu, P. L.-F. (2006). An analysis of 2004 sumatra earthquake fault plane mechanisms and indian ocean tsunami. J. Hydraulic Res., 44(2):147-154, 2006.
93. Wang, X. and Liu, P. L.-F. (2007), Numerical simulations of the 2004 indian ocean tsunamis - coastal effects. Journal of Earthquake and Tsunami, 1(3):273-297.
94. Wang, X.; Orfila, A.; Liu, P.L.-F. (2008) Numerical simulations of tsunami runup onto a three-dimensional beach with shallow water equations. p. 249-253 IN: Liu, P.L.-F.; Yeh, H.H; Syn-olakis, C. (eds) Advanced numerical models for simulating tsunami waves and runup. Hackensack, NJ: World Scientific. Advances in coastal and ocean engineering 10.
95. Weissel, J. K. (1977), Evolution of the Lau Basin by the growth of small plates, in Island Arcs, Deep Sea Trenches, and Back-Arc Basins, Maurice Ewing Ser., vol. 1, edited by M. Talwani and W. C. Pitman III, pp. 429-436, AGU, Washington, D. C.
96. Wijetunge J.J., Wang X., Liu P.L.-F. (2008) Indian Ocean Tsunami on 26 December 2004: numerical modelling of inundation in three cities on the south coast of Sri Lanka. J Earthq Tsunami 2(2):133-155.
97. Wright, I.C. (1993), Pre-spreading rifting and heterogeneous volcanism in the southern Havre Trough back-arc basin, Mar. Geol., 113, 179-200.