A spatial model to forecast raccoon rabies emergence

Vector-Borne and Zoonotic Diseases

Volumn 12, Issue 2, 2012, Pages 126-137

  Recuenco, Sergio ^a   Blanton, Jesse D ^a   Rupprecht, Charles E ^a  

^a CENTERS FOR DISEASE CONTROL AND PREVENTION   (United States)

Author keywords

Poisson regression; Rabies; Raccoon; Spatial epidemiology; Zoonosis

Indexed keywords

RABIES VACCINE;

ARTICLE; CONTROLLED STUDY; DEMOGRAPHY; DISEASE CONTROL; DISEASE PREDISPOSITION; DISEASE SURVEILLANCE; ENVIRONMENTAL FACTOR; FORECASTING; GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION; HUMAN; MAJOR CLINICAL STUDY; MULTICENTER STUDY; PRIORITY JOURNAL; RABIES; RABIES VIRUS; RACCOON; RACCOON RABIES; UNITED STATES; VIRUS TRANSMISSION; ZOONOSIS;

ANIMALS; APPALACHIAN REGION; CENSUSES; GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEMS; GEOGRAPHY; HUMANS; MODELS, BIOLOGICAL; POPULATION SURVEILLANCE; RABIES; RABIES VACCINES; RACCOONS; REGRESSION ANALYSIS; RISK ASSESSMENT;

ANIMALIA; PROCYON; RABIES VIRUS;

EID: 84856851668     PISSN: 15303667     EISSN: 15577759     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1089/vbz.2010.0053     Document Type: Article

References (46)

1. Atkinson, P, Molesworth, A. Geographical Analysis of Communicable Disease Data. Spatial Epidemiology. In: P. Elliot. Spatial Epidemioliogy. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press, 2000:253-266.
2. Bacon, PJ. Population Dynamics of Rabies in Wildlife. Orlando, FL: Academic Press, 1985.
3. Beasley, JC, Rodes, OE. Relationship between raccoon abundance and crop damage. Hum Wildl Confl 2008; 2:248-259.
4. Biek, R, Henderson, JC, et al. A high-resolution genetic signature of demographic and spatial expansion in epizootic rabies virus. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 2007; 104:7993-7998. (Pubitemid 47185864)
5. Blanton, JD, Manangan, A, et al. Development of a GIS-based, real-time Internet mapping tool for rabies surveillance. Int J Health Geogr 2006; 5:47.
6. Blanton, JD, Palmer, D, et al. Rabies surveillance in the United States during 2009. J Am Vet Med Assoc 2010; 237: 646-657.
7. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Update: raccoon rabies epizootic-United States, 1996. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 1997; 45:1117-1120.
8. CDC. Update: raccoon rabies epizootic-United States and Canada, 1999. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2000; 49:31-35.
9. Childs, JE, Curns, AT, et al. Predicting the local dynamics of epizootic rabies among raccoons in the United States. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 2000; 97:13666-13671.
10. Childs, JE, Curns, AT, et al. Rabies epizootics among raccoons vary along a North-South gradient in the Eastern United States. Vector Borne Zoonot Dis 2001; 1:253-267.
11. Chipman, R, Slate, D, et al. Downside risk of wildlife translo-cation. Dev Biol (Basel) 2008; 131:223-232.
12. German, B, Herrschaft, D. Rabies cases on the rise everywhere: US ORV barrier breaches in 2004. Rabies Rep 2004; 15:12-14.
13. Guerra, MA, Curns, AT, et al. Skunk and raccoon rabies in the eastern United States: temporal and spatial analysis. Emerg Infect Dis 2003; 9:1143-1150. (Pubitemid 37071558)
14. Henderson, JC, Biek, R, et al. Rabies virus in raccoons, Ohio, 2004. Emerg Infect Dis 2008; 14:650-652. (Pubitemid 351520870)
15. Jenkins, SR, Winkler, WG. Descriptive epidemiology from an epizootic of raccoon rabies in the Middle Altantic States, 1982-1983. Am J Epidemiol 1987; 126:429-437. (Pubitemid 17123842)
16. Jones, ME, Curns, AT, et al. Environmental and human demographic features associated with epizootic raccoon rabies in Maryland, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. J Wildl Dis 2003; 39: 869-874. (Pubitemid 38933348)
17. Kappus, KD, Bigler, WJ, et al. The raccoon an emerging rabies host. J Wildl Dis 1970; 6:507-509.
18. Kemere, P, Liddel, M, et al. Economic analysis of a large scale oral vaccination program to control raccoon rabies. Third NWRC Special Symposium Human conflicts with wildlife: economic considerations. Fort Collins, Colorado: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, National Wildlife Research Center, 2000.
19. Kulldorff, M. A spatial scan statistic. Commun Stat Theory Methods 1997; 26:1481-1496. (Pubitemid 127447921)
20. Linhart, SB, Wlodkowski, JC, et al. A new flavor-coated sachet bait for delivering oral rabies vaccine to raccoons and coyotes. J Wildl Dis 2002; 38:363-377. (Pubitemid 135696204)
21. Lucey, BT, Russell, CA, et al. Spatiotemporal analysis of epizootic raccoon rabies propagation in Connecticut, 1991-1995. Vector Borne Zoonot Dis 2002; 2:77-86.
22. MacInnes, C. Raccoon rabies reaches Ontario. Rabies Rep 1999; 10:1-3.
23. McCullagh, P, Nelder, JA. Generalized Linear Models. New York: Chapman and Hall, 1989.
24. Nettles, VF, Shaddock, JH, et al. Rabies in translocated raccoons. Am J Public Health 1979; 69:601-602. (Pubitemid 10223457)
25. Owen, SF. Ecology and management of raccoons within an intensively managed forest in the central Appalachians. Doctor of Philosophy, West Virginia University, 2003.
26. Pastoret, PP, Kappeler, A, et al. European Rabies Control. In: King, AR, Fooks, AR, Aubert, M, Wandeler, A. Historical perspective of rabies in europe and the mediterranean basin. Paris: World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE), 2004: 337-350.
27. Pfeiffer, D. Spatial Analysis in Epidemiology. New York: Oxford University Press, 2008.
28. Prange, S, Gehrt, SD, et al. Demographic factors contributing to high raccoon densities in urban landscapes. J Wildl Manage 2003; 67:324.
29. Prange, S, Gehrt, SD, et al. Influences of anthropogenic resources on raccoon (Procyon lotor) movements and spatial distribution. J Mammal 2004; 85:483-490. (Pubitemid 38708780)
30. Recuenco, S, Eidson, M, et al. Factors associated with endemic raccoon (Procyon lotor) rabies in terrestrial mammals in New York State, USA. Prev Vet Med 2008; 86:30-42.
31. Recuenco, S, Eidson, M, et al. Spatial and temporal patterns of enzootic raccoon rabies adjusted for multiple covariates. Int J Health Geogr 2007; 6:14.
32. Russell, CA, Smith, DL, et al. A priori prediction of disease invasion dynamics in a novel environment. Proc Biol Sci 2004; 271:21-25. (Pubitemid 38096091)
33. Russell, CA, Smith, DL, et al. Predictive spatial dynamics and strategic planning for raccoon rabies emergence in Ohio. PLoS Biol 2005; 3:e88.
34. Silverman, BW. Density Estimation for Statistics and Data Analysis. New York: Chapman and Hall, 1986.
35. Slate, D, Algeo, TP, et al. Oral rabies vaccination in north america: opportunities, complexities, and challenges. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2009; 3:e549.
36. Slate, D, Rupprecht, CE, et al. Attaining raccoon rabies management goals: history and challenges. Dev Biol (Basel) 2008; 131:439-447.
37. Slate, D, Rupprecht, CE, et al. Status of oral rabies vaccination in wild carnivores in the United States. Virus Res 2005; 111:68-76. (Pubitemid 40724448)
38. Smith, DL, Lucey, B, et al. Predicting the spatial dynamics of rabies epidemics on heterogeneous landscapes. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 2002; 99:3668-3672. (Pubitemid 34252164)
39. US-Census-Bureau. Geographic areas reference manual. 1994. Available at: www.census.gov/geo/www/garm.html. Last accessed July 25, 2011.
40. US-Census-Bureau. 2002 Census of Governments. Government Organization. U. S. G. P. Office. Washington, DC: U.S.Census Bureau 2002:1-105.
41. U.S. Department of Agriculture-Animal and Plant Health Inspection service (USDA-APHIS). Cooperative Rabies Management Program National Report 2005. Concord, NH: USDA-APHIS-Wildlife Services, 2005.
42. USDA-APHIS. US ORV Distribution Information. 2008. Available at www.aphis.usda.gov/ws/rabies/orv/dist/us.html (last accessed 4/1/2009).
43. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). National Elevation Dataset, U.S. Geological Survey, 2001. Available at http://ned.usgs.gov Last accessed July 22, 2011.
44. USGS. National Atlas of the United States, 2003. Available at http://nationalatlas.gov/atlasftp.html Last accessed July 22, 2011.
45. Vogelmann, JE, Howard, SM, et al. Completion of the 1990's national land. Photogram Eng Remote Sensing 2001; 67:650-662.
46. Wheeler, AC, Waller, L. Mountains, Valleys, and rivers: The transmission of raccoon rabies over a heterogeneous landscape. J Agricult Biol Environ Stat 2008; 13:388-406.