The role of aquatic reservoir fluctuations in long-term cholera patterns

Epidemics

Volumn 4, Issue 1, 2012, Pages 33-42

  Righetto, L ^a   Casagrandi, R ^b   Bertuzzo, E ^a   Mari, L ^a   Gatto, M ^b   Rodriguez Iturbe, I ^c   Rinaldo, A ^a,d  

^a EPFL   (Switzerland)

^b POLITECNICO DI MILANO   (Italy)

^c Princeton University   (United States)

^d UNIVERSITY OF PADOVA   (Italy)

Author keywords

Chaotic time series; Hydrologic seasonality and cholera; Seasonally forced model; Waterborne diseases

Indexed keywords

ARTICLE; CHOLERA; DILUTION; DISEASE PREDISPOSITION; HUMAN; HYDROLOGY; IMMUNITY; PRIORITY JOURNAL; SEASONAL VARIATION; SIMULATION; VIBRIO CHOLERAE; WATER CONTAMINATION; WATER SUPPLY;

CHOLERA; HUMANS; MODELS, STATISTICAL; SEASONS; VIBRIO CHOLERAE; WATER MICROBIOLOGY; WATER SUPPLY;

EID: 84856697497     PISSN: 17554365     EISSN: 18780067     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2011.11.002     Document Type: Article

References (39)

1. Akanda A.S., Jutla S., Islam S. Dual peak cholera transmission in Bengal delta: a hydroclimatological explanation. Geophysical Research Letters 2009, 36:L19401.
2. Altizer S., Dobson A., Hosseini P., Hudson P., Pascual M., Rohani P. Seasonality and the dynamics of infectious diseases. Ecology Letters 2006, 9:467-484.
3. Anderson R., May R. Infectious Diseases of Humans 1992, Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK.
4. Bertuzzo E., Azaele S., Maritan A., Gatto M., Rodriguez-Iturbe I., Rinaldo A. On the space-time evolution of a cholera epidemic. Water Resources Research 2008, 44:W01424.
5. Bertuzzo E., Casagrandi R., Gatto M., Rodriguez-Iturbe I., Rinaldo A. On spatially explicit models of cholera epidemics. Journal of the Royal Society Interface 2010, 7:321-333.
6. Bertuzzo E., Mari L., Righetto L., Gatto M., Casagrandi R., Blokesch M., Rodriguez-Iturbe I., Rinaldo A. Prediction of the spatial evolution and effects of control measures for the unfolding Haiti cholera outbreak. Geophysical Research Letters 2011, 38.
7. Bouma M., Pascual M. Seasonal and interannual cycles of endemic cholera in Bengal 1891-1940 in relation to climate and geography. Hydrobiologia 2001, 460:147-156.
8. Brutsaert W. Hydrology: An Introduction 2005, Cambridge University Press.
9. Casagrandi R., Bolzoni L., Levin S., Andreasen V. The SIRC model and influenza A. Mathematical Biosciences 2006, 200:152-169.
10. Chao D.L., Halloran M.E., Longini I.M. Vaccination strategies for epidemic cholera in Haiti with implications for the developing world. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 2011, 108:7081-7085.
11. Clemens J.D., Sack D.A., Harris J.R., van Loon F., Chakrabortya J., Ahmed F., Rao M.R., Khan M.R., Yunus M., Huda N., Stanton B.F., Kay B., Eeckels R., Sack D.A., Walter S., Svennerholm A.M., Holmgren J. Field trial of oral cholera vaccines in Bangladesh: results from three-year follow-up. Lancet 1990, 335:270-273.
12. Codeco, C., 2001. Endemic and epidemic dynamics of cholera: the role of the aquatic reservoir, BMC Infectious Diseases 1.
13. Colwell R. Global climate and infectious disease: the cholera paradigm. Science 1996, 274:2025-2031.
14. de Magny G.C., Murtugudde R., Sapiano M.R.P., Nizam A., Brown C.W., Busalacchi A.J., Yunus M., Nair G.B., Gil A.I., Lanata C.F., Calkins J., Manna B., Rajendran K., Bhattacharya M.K., Huq A., Sack R.B., Colwell R.R. Environmental signatures associated with cholera epidemics. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 2008, 105:17676-17681.
15. Dhooge A., Govaerts W., Kuznetsov Y. MATCONT: a MATLAB package for numerical bifurcation analysis of ODEs. ACM Transactions on Mathematical Software 2003, 29:141-164.
16. Earn D., Rohani P., Bolker B., Grenfell B. A simple model for complex dynamical transitions in epidemics. Science 2000, 287:667-670.
17. Emch M., Feldacker C., Islam M.S., Ali M. Seasonality of cholera from 1974 to 2005: a review of global patterns. International Journal of Health Geographics 2008, 7:31.
18. Emch M., Yunus M., Escamilla V., Feldacker C., Ali M. Local population and regional environmental drivers of cholera in Bangladesh. Environmental Health 2010, 9.
19. Glass R., Becker S., Huq M., Stoll B., Khan M., Merson M., Lee J., Black R. Endemic cholera in rural Bangladesh, 1966-1980. American Journal of Epidemiology 1982, 116:959-970.
20. Hartley D., Morris J., Smith D.L. Hyperinfectivity: a critical element in the ability of V. cholerae to cause epidemics?. PLoS Medicine 2006, 3:63-69.
21. Huq A., Sack R., Nizam A., Longini I., Nair G., Ali A., Morris J., Khan M., Siddique A., Yunus M., Albert M., Sack D., Colwell R. Critical factors influencing the occurrence of Vibrio cholerae in the environment of Bangladesh. Applied and Environmental Microbiology 2005, 71:4645-4654.
22. Iran Meterological Service, 2011. Iran rainfall data are available online at http://www.irimo.ir/english/monthly&annual/map/index.asp.
23. Islam M.S., Sharker M.A.Y., Rheman S., Hossain S., Mahmud Z.H., Islam M.S., Uddin A.M.K., Yunus M., Osman M.S., Ernst R., Rector I., Larson C.P., Luby S.P., Endtz H.P., Cravioto A. Effects of local climate variability on transmission dynamics of cholera in Matlab, Bangladesh. Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene 2009, 103:1165-1170.
24. King A., Ionides E., Pascual M., Bouma M. Inapparent infections and cholera dynamics. Nature 2008, 454:877-880.
25. Koelle K., Rodo X., Pascual M., Yunus M., Mustafa G. Refractory periods and climate forcing in cholera dynamics. Nature 2005, 436:696-700.
26. Kuznetsov Y., Piccardi C. Bifurcation-analysis of periodic SEIR and SIR epidemic models. Journal of Mathematical Biology 1994, 32:109-121.
27. Kuznetsov Y. Elements of Applied Bifurcation Theory 1995, Springer-Verlag, New York, USA.
28. Lipp E., Huq A., Colwell R. Effects of global climate on infectious disease: the cholera model. Clinical Microbiology Reviews 2002, 15:757.
29. Mari L., Bertuzzo E., Righetto L., Casagrandi R., Gatto M., Rodriguez-Iturbe I., Rinaldo A. Modeling cholera epidemics: the role of human mobility and sanitation conditions. Journal of the Royal Society Interface 2012, 9:376-388. 10.1098/rsif.2011.0304.
30. Neilan R.L.M., Schaefer E., Gaff H., Fister K.R., Lenhart S. Modeling Optimal intervention strategies for cholera. Bulletin of Mathematical Biology 2010, 72:2004-2018.
31. PAHO, 2010. EOC Situation Report #17, Technical Report. Pan-American Health Organization, Regional Office of the World Health Organization. Online at http://new.paho.org/hq/images/Atlas_IHR/CholeraHispaniola/atlas.html.
32. Pascual M., Rodo X., Ellner S., Colwell R., Bouma M. Cholera dynamics and El Nino-Southern oscillation. Science 2000, 289:1766-1769.
33. Pascual M., Bouma M.J., Dobson A.P. Cholera and climate: revisiting the quantitative evidence. Microbes and Infection 2002, 4:237-245.
34. Pascual M., Chaves L.F., Cash B., Rodó X., Yunus Md. Predicting endemic cholera: the role of climate variability and disease dynamics. Climate Research 2008, 36:131-140.
35. Righetto L., Bertuzzo E., Casagrandi R., Gatto M., Rodriguez-Iturbe I., Rinaldo A. Modelling human movement in cholera spreading along fluvial systems. Ecohydrology 2011, 4:49-55.
36. Rodo X., Pascual M., Fuchs G., Faruque A. ENSO and cholera: a nonstationary link related to climate change?. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 2002, 99:12901-12906.
37. Ruiz-Moreno D., Pascual M., Bouma M., Dobson A., Cash B. Cholera seasonality in Madras (1901-4940): dual role for rainfall in endemic and epidemic regions. Ecohealth 2007, 4:52-62.
38. Sack R., Siddique A., Longini I., Nizam A., Yunus M., Islam M., Morris J., Ali A., Huq A., Nair G., Qadri F., Faruque S., Sack D., Colwell R. A 4-year study of the epidemiology of Vibrio cholerae in four rural areas of Bangladesh. Journal of Infectious Diseases 2003, 187:96-101.
39. Tuite A.R., Tien J., Eisenberg M., Earn D., Ma J., Fisman N. Cholera epidemic in Haiti, 2010: using a transmission model to explain spatial spread of disease and identify optimal control interventions. Annals of Internal Medicine 2011, 154:593-601. 10.1059/0003-4819-154-9-201105030-00334.