Additional CO 2 emissions from land use change - Forest conservation as a precondition for sustainable production of second generation bioenergy

Ecological Economics

Volumn 74, Issue , 2012, Pages 64-70

  Popp, Alexander ^a   Krause, Michael ^a   Dietrich, Jan Philipp ^a   Lotze Campen, Hermann ^a   Leimbach, Marian ^a   Beringer, Tim ^a   Bauer, Nico ^a  

^a POTSDAM INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE IMPACT RESEARCH   (Germany)

Author keywords

Bioenergy; Costs of agricultural production; Deforestation; Indirect land use change emissions (iLUC); Land use change; Yield increases

Indexed keywords

AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS; AGRICULTURAL LAND; BIOENERGY; CARBON DIOXIDE; CARBON EMISSION; CLIMATE MODELING; COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS; CROP PRODUCTION; CULTIVATION; DEFORESTATION; ENERGY CROP; FOSSIL FUEL; GREENHOUSE GAS; LAND USE CHANGE; SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT; SUSTAINABLE FORESTRY; YIELD RESPONSE;

EID: 84856371028     PISSN: 09218009     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2011.11.004     Document Type: Article

References (46)

1. Alkemade R., Oorschot M., Miles L., Nellemann C., Bakkenes M., Brink B. GLOBIO3: a framework to investigate options for reducing global terrestrial biodiversity loss. Ecosystems 2009, 12:374-390.
2. Barlow J., Gardner T.A., Araujo I.S., et al. Quantifying the biodiversity value of tropical primary, secondary and plantation forests. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 2007, 104(47):18555-18560.
3. Bauer, N., Edenhofer, O., Kypreos, S., 2008. Linking energy system and macroeconomic growth models. Journal of Computational Management Science 5 (1e2), 95e117 (Special Issue on Managing Energy and the Environment).
4. Bondeau A., Smith P., Zaehle S., Schaphoff S., Lucht W., Cramer W., Gerten D., Lotze-Campen H., Müller C., Reichstein M., Smith B. Modelling the role of agriculture for the 20th century global terrestrial carbon balance. Global Change Biology 2007, 13(3):679-706.
5. Bryant D., Nielsen D., Tangley L. The Last Frontier Forests - Ecosystems & Economies on the Edge 1997, World Resources Institute (WRI), USA.
6. Canadell J.G., et al. Contributions to accelerating atmospheric CO2 growth from economic activity, carbon intensity, and efficiency of natural sinks. PNAS 2007, 104:18866-18870.
7. CIESIN, IFPRI, WRI Gridded Population of the World (GPW), Version 2 2000, Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) Columbia University, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and World Resources Institute (WRI), Palisades, NY.
8. FAOSTAT, 2008. Food Balance Sheets. FAO, Rome. www.faostat.fao.org (Last access November 8, 2008).
9. Fargione J., Hill J., Tilman D., Polasky S., Hawthorne P. Land clearing and the biofuel carbon debt. Science 2008, 319:1235-1238.
10. Fischer G., Shah M., v.Velthuizen H., Nachtergaele F.O. Global agroecological Assessment for Agriculture in the 21st Century 2002, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), FAO.
11. Goldemberg J. Ethanol for a sustainable energy future. Science 2007, 315:808-810.
12. Grainger A. Difficulties in tracking the long-term global trend in tropical forest areas. PNAS 2008, 105:818-823.
13. Gullison R.E., et al. Tropical forests and climate policies. Science 2007, 316:985-986.
14. Gumpenberger M., Vohland K., Heyder U., Poulter B., Macey K., Rammig A., Popp A., Cramer W. Predicting pan-tropical climate change induced forest stock gains and losses - implications for REDD. Environmental Research Letters 2010, 5:014013.
15. Haberl H., Beringer T., Bhattacharya S.C., Erb K.-H., Hoogwijk M. The global technical potential of bio-energy in 2050 considering sustainability constraints. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 2010, 2:394-403.
16. Hansen M., DeFries R. Detecting long-term global forest change using continuous fields of tree-cover maps from 8-km Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) data for the years 1982-99. Ecosystems 2004, 7:695-716.
17. Houghton R.A. Revised estimates of the annual net flux of carbon to the atmosphere from changes in land use and land management 1850-2000. Tellus Series B 2003, 55(2):378-390.
18. IPCC 'Climate Change 2007: Mitigation', Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC 2007, Cambridge and NY, USA: Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. B. Metz, O.R. Davidson, P.R. Bosch, R. Dave, L.A. Meyer (Eds.).
19. Kindermann, et al. Global cost estimates of reducing carbon emissions through avoided deforestation. PNAS, vol. 105, no 30 2008, 10302. (July).
20. Kriegler E., Bruckner T. Sensitivity analysis of emissions corridors for the 21st century. Climatic Change 2004, 66:345-387.
21. Lal R. World crop residues production and implications of its use as a biofuel. Environment International 2005, 31:575-584.
22. Leimbach M., Bauer N., Baumstark L., Edenhofer O. Costs in a globalized world: climate policy analysis with ReMIND-R. Environmental Modeling and Assessment 2010, 15(3):155-173.
23. Leimbach M., Bauer N., Baumstark L., Lüken M., Edenhofer O. Technological change and international trade - insights from ReMIND-R. The Energy Journal 2010, 31(2):109-136.
24. Lotze-Campen H., Müller C., Bondeau A., Jachner A., Popp A., Lucht W. Food demand, productivity growth and the spatial distribution of land and water use: a global modeling approach. Agricultural Economics 2008, 39:325-338.
25. Lotze-Campen H., Popp A., Beringer T., Müller C., Bondeau A., Rost S., Lucht W. The trade-offs between agricultural expansion, intensification and trade: a global bio-economic modelling approach. Ecological Modelling 2010, 221:2188-2196.
26. Malhi Y., Grace J. Tropical forests and atmospheric carbon dioxide. Trends in Ecology & Evolution 2000, 15:332-337.
27. McDougall R.A., Elbehri A., Truong T.P. Global Trade Assistance and Protection: The GTAP 4 Data Base 1998, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN.
28. Melillo J.M., et al. Indirect emissions from biofuels: how important?. Science 2009, 326:1397-1399.
29. Persson U.M., Azar C. Preserving the world's tropical forests - a price on carbon may not do. Environmental Science and Technology 2010, 44:210-215.
30. Popp A., Lotze-Campen H., Bodirksy B. Food consumption, diet shifts and associated greenhouse gases from agricultural production. Global Environmental Change 2010, 20:451-462.
31. Popp, A., Lotze-Campen, H., Leimbach M., Knopf, B., Beringer, T., Bauer, N., Bodirsky, B., 2011. On sustainability of bio-energy production: integrating co-emissions from agricultural intensification. Biomass & Bioenergy 35, 4770-4780.
32. Ramankutty N., Foley J. Estimating historical changes in global land cover: croplands from 1700 to 1992. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 1999, 13:997-1027.
33. Rokityanskiy D., et al. Geographically explicit global modeling of land-use change, carbon sequestration, and biomass supply. Technological Forecasting & Social Change 2007, 74:1057-1082.
34. Schmitz C., Dietrich J., Lotze-Campen H., Müller C., Popp A. Implementing endogenous technological change in a global land-use model. Paper presented at annual GTAP Conference in Penang, Malysia, June 9-11, 2010. GTAP Resource #3283 2010, (24 pp.).
35. Searchinger T., et al. Use of U.S. croplands for biofuels increases greenhouse gases through emissions from land-use change. Science 2008, 319:1238-1242.
36. Sohngen B., Mendelsohn R. An optimal control model of forest carbon sequestration. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 2003, 85:448-457.
37. Stehfest E., Bouwman L., van Vuuren D.P., den Elzen M., Eickhout B., Kabat P. Climate benefits of changing diet. Climatic Change 2009, 95:83-102.
38. Steinfeld H., Gerber P., Wassenaar T., Castel V., Rosales M. Livestock's long shadow. Environmental issues & options 2006, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, Available at:. http://www.virtualcentre.org/en/library/key_pub/longshad/A0701E00.pdf.
39. Stern N. The Economics of Climate Change. The Stern Review 2006, Cambridge University Press, New York.
40. Tavoni M., Sohngen B., Bosetti V. Forestry and the carbon market response to stabilize climate. Energy Policy 2007, 35:5346-5353.
41. Turner I.M. Species loss in fragments of tropical rain forest a review of the evidence. Journal of Applied Ecology 1996, 33:200-209.
42. UN World Population prospects: the 2004 revision. CD-ROM Edition extended dataset 2005, United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division.
43. van Vuuren D., Bellevrat E., Kitous A., Issac M. Bioenergy use and low stabilization scenarios. The Energy Journal 2010, 31(1):193-221.
44. Velthuizen H., Huddleston B., Fischer G., Salvatore M., Ataman E., Achtergaele F.O., Zanetti M., Bloise M., Antonicelli A., Bel J., De Liddo A., De Salvo P., Franceschini G. Mapping biophysical factors that influence agricultural production and rural vulnerability. Environment and natural resources series 2007, 11. FAO, Rome.
45. 2 concentrations for land use and energy. Science 2009, 324:1183-1186.
46. World Bank World development indicators (CD-ROM) 2001, Washington, DC.