How long do offenders escape arrest? Using DNA traces to analyse when serial offenders are caught

Journal of Investigative Psychology and Offender Profiling

Volumn 9, Issue 1, 2012, Pages 13-29

  Lammers, Marre ^a   Bernasco, Wim ^a   Elffers, Henk ^a  

^a NETHERLANDS INSTITUTE FOR THE STUDY OF CRIME AND LAW ENFORCEMENT   (Netherlands)

Author keywords

Clearance; Cox proportional hazards model; DNA traces; Hazard ratio; Serial offenders; Unidentified offenders

Indexed keywords

EID: 84856292525     PISSN: 15444759     EISSN: 15444767     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/jip.1353     Document Type: Article

References (32)

1. Addington L. A. (2006). Using national incident-based reporting system murder data to evaluate clearance predictors: A research note. Homicide Studies, 10, 140-152.
2. Alderden, M. A., & Lavery, T. A. (2007). Predicting homicide clearances in Chicago: Investigating disparities in predictors across different types of homicide. Homicide Studies, (11), 115-132.
3. Blumstein, A., Cohen, J., & Nagin, D. (1978). Deterrence and incapacitation: Estimating the effect of criminal sanction on crime rate. Washington DC: National Academy of Science.
4. Clare, J. (2010). Examination of systematic variations in burglars' domain-specific perceptual and procedural skills. Psychology, Crime & Law, 17(3), 199-214.
5. Cleves, M. A., Gould, W. W., Gutierrez, R. G., & Marchenko, Y. U. (2008). An introduction to survival analysis using Stata. Second edition. Texas: Stata Press.
6. Cox, D. R. (1972). Regression models and life-tables (with discussion). Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B, 34, 187-220.
7. Davies, H. J. (2007). Understanding variations in murder clearance rates: The influence of the political environment. Homicide Studies, (11), 133-150.
8. Dodd, T., Nicholas, S., Povey, D., & Walker, A. (2004). Crime in England and Wales 2003/2004 (no. 10/04). London: Home Office Statistical Bulletin.
9. Hazelwood, R. R., & Warren, J. I. (2003). Linkage analysis: Modus operandi, ritual, and signature in serial sexual crime. Aggression and Violent Behavior, (8), 587-598.
10. Heller, N. B., & McEwen, J. T. (1973). Applications of crime seriousness information in police departments. Journal of Criminal Justice, 1, 241-253.
11. Jiao, A. Y. (2007). Explaining homicide clearance: An analysis of Chicago homicide data 1965-1995. Criminal Justice Studies, 20(1), 3-14.
12. Keel, T. G., Jarvis, J. P., & Muirhead, Y. E. (2009). An exploratory analysis of factors affecting homicide investigations: Examining the dynamics of murder clearance rates. Homicide Studies, 13, 50-68.
13. Kyvsgaard, B. (2003). The criminal career: The Danish longitudinal study. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
14. Litwin, K. J. (2004). A multilevel multivariate analysis of factors affecting homicide clearance. Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, (41), 327-351.
15. Litwin, K. J., & Xu, Y. (2007). The dynamic nature of homicide clearances: A multilevel model comparison of three time periods. Homicide Studies, (11), 94-114.
16. Liu, J., Francis, B., & Soothill, K. (2010). A longitudinal study of escalation in crime seriousness. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 26, 175-196.
17. Mazerolle, P., Brame, R., Paternoster, R., Piquero, A. R., & Dean, C. (2000). Onset age, persistence, and offending versatility: Comparisons across gender. Criminology, 38(4), 1143-1172.
18. Meulenbroek, A. J. (2008). Research of biological traces and DNA-research. In A. P. A. Broeders & E. R. Muller (Eds.), Forensic science. Deventer: Kluwer.
19. Miethe, T. D., Olson, J., & Mitchell, O. (2006). Specialization and persistence in the arrest histories of sex offenders: A comparative analysis of alternative measures and offense types. Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, 43(3), 204-229.
20. Nagin, D. (1998). Criminal deterrence research at the outset of the twenty-first century. Crime and Justice, (24), 1-42.
21. Netherlands Forensic Institute (2010). Annual report 2009 of the Dutch DNA database for criminal cases. The Hague: NFI.
22. Paré, P. P., Felson, R. B., & Ouimet, M. (2007). Community variation in crime clearance: A multilevel analysis with comments on assessing police performance. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, (22), 243-258.
23. Ramchand, R., MacDonald, J. M., Haviland, A., & Morral, A. R. (2009). A developmental approach for measuring the severity of crimes. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 25(2), 129-153.
24. Regoeczi, W. C., Jarvis, J. P., & Riedel, M. (2008). Clearing murders: Is it about time? Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, 45(2), 142-162.
25. Riedel, M., & Jarvis, J. P. (1999). The decline of arrest clearances for criminal homicide: Causes, correlates, and third parties. Criminal Justice Policy Review, 9(3), 279-306.
26. Roberts, A. (2007). Predictors of homicide clearance by arrest. An event history analysis of NIBRS incidents. Homicide Studies, 11, 82-93.
27. Roberts, A. (2008). The influences of incident and contextual characteristics on crime clearance of nonlethal violence: A multilevel event history analysis. Journal of Criminal Justice, 36, 61-71.
28. Schneider, P. M., & Martin, P. D. (2001). Criminal DNA databases: The European situation. Forensic Science International, 119, 232-238.
29. Sullivan, C. J., McGloin, J. M., Pratt, T. C., & Piquero, A. R. (2006). Rethinking the "norm" of offender generality: Investigating specialization in the short-term. Criminology, 44(1), 199-233.
30. Tonkin, M., Grant, T., & Bond, J. W. (2008). To link or not to link: A test of the case linkage principles using serial car theft data. Journal of Investigative Psychology and Offender Profiling 5, 59-77.
31. Topalli, V. (2005). Criminal expertise and offender decision-making: An experimental analysis of how offenders and non-offenders differentially perceive social stimuli. British Journal of Criminology, 45, 269-295.
32. Woodhams, J., & Toye, K. (2007). An empirical test of the assumptions of case linkage and offender profiling with serial commercial robberies. Psychology, Public Policy, and Law, 13(1), 59-85.