Prediction model for the incidence and prevalence of type 1 diabetes in childhood and adolescence: Evidence for a cohort-dependent increase within the next two decades in Germany

Pediatric Diabetes

Volumn 13, Issue 1, 2012, Pages 15-20

  Ehehalt, Stefan ^a   Dietz, Klaus ^b   Willasch, Andre Manfred ^c   Neu, Andreas ^a   Bockmann A ^d   Brand, U ^d   Doring C ^d   Durr R ^d   Ecker, D ^d   Eichmeier, F ^d   Elpel, U ^d   Faller, U ^d   Fedorcak, M ^d   Feldhahn, L ^d   Fitzke, G ^d   Grulich Henn, J ^d   Holder, M ^d   Jantzen, D ^d   Kelle, M ^d   Ketteler, K ^d   Kruger M ^d   Lippmann Grob, B ^d   Muller E ^d   Radlow, U ^d   Rappen, U ^d   Ruland, A ^d   Sauter, R ^d   Schadel G ^d   Schumacher, A ^d   Schurmann U ^d   Schwab, K O ^d   Trefz, F K ^d   Veigel, A ^d   Wabitsch, M ^d   Wissert, J ^d   more..

^a UNIVERSITY HOSPITAL TÜBINGEN   (Germany)

^b UNIVERSITY OF TÜBINGEN   (Germany)

^c GOETHE UNIVERSITY   (Germany)

^d NONE

Author keywords

Children; Cohort age specific incidence; Epidemiology; Germany; Lexis diagram; Type 1 diabetes mellitus

Indexed keywords

ADOLESCENT; ARTICLE; CHILD; CLINICAL OBSERVATION; DISEASE REGISTRY; FEMALE; GERMANY; GROUPS BY AGE; HUMAN; INCIDENCE; INFANT; INSULIN DEPENDENT DIABETES MELLITUS; MAJOR CLINICAL STUDY; MALE; ONSET AGE; PREDICTION; PRESCHOOL CHILD; PREVALENCE; PRIORITY JOURNAL; RISK FACTOR; SCHOOL CHILD;

ADOLESCENT; AGE DISTRIBUTION; AGE OF ONSET; CHILD; CHILD, PRESCHOOL; COHORT EFFECT; COHORT STUDIES; DIABETES MELLITUS, TYPE 1; FEMALE; FORECASTING; GERMANY; HUMANS; INCIDENCE; INFANT; INFANT, NEWBORN; MALE; MODELS, STATISTICAL; PREVALENCE; SEX FACTORS;

EID: 84856236241     PISSN: 1399543X     EISSN: 13995448     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1399-5448.2011.00799.x     Document Type: Article

References (25)

1. Onkamo P, Väänänen S, Karvonen M, Tuomilehto J. Worldwide increase in incidence of Type I diabetes - the analysis of the data on published incidence trends. Diabetologia 1999: 42: 1395-1403.
2. Dahlquist G, Mustonen L. Childhood onset diabetes - time trends and climatological factors. Int J Epidemiol 1994: 23: 1234-1241.
3. Tuomilehto-Wolf E, Tuomilehto J. HLA antigens in insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus. Ann Med 1991: 23: 481-488.
4. Soltesz G, Patterson CC, Dahlquist G; on behalf of the EURODIAB Study Group. Worldwide childhood type 1 diabetes incidence - what can we learn from epidemiology? Pediatr Diabetes 2007: 8: 6-14.
5. Gale EA. Rise of childhood type 1 diabetes in the 20th century. Diabetes 2002: 51: 3353-3561.
6. EURODIAB ACE Study Group. Variation and trends in incidence of childhood diabetes in Europe. Lancet 2000: 355: 873-876.
7. Green A, Patterson CC; on behalf of the EURODIAB TIGER Study Group. Trends in the incidence of childhood-onset diabetes in Europe 1989-1998. Diabetologia 2001: 44: B3-B8.
8. International Diabetes Federation. Type 1 Diabetes Incidence. Diabetes Atlas, 3rd edn. Brussels, Belgium 2009 (accessed 06.09.2009 from).
9. Green A, Gale EAM, Patterson CC. Incidence of childhood-onset insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus: the EURODIAB ACE study. Lancet 1992: 339: 905-909.
10. Ehehalt S, Blumenstock G, Willasch AM, Hub R, Ranke MB, Neu A. Continuous rise in incidence of childhood Type 1 diabetes in Germany. Diabet Med 2008: 25: 755-757.
11. Neu A, Kehrer M, Hub R, Ranke MB. Incidence of IDDM in German children aged 0-14 years. A 6-year population-based study (1987-1993). Diabetes Care 1997: 20: 530-533.
12. Neu A, Ehehalt S, Willasch A, Kehrer M, Hub R, Ranke MB. Rising incidence of type 1 diabetes in Germany. 12-year trend analysis in children aged 0-14 years. Diabetes Care 2001: 24: 785-786.
13. LaPorte RE, McCarty D, Bruno G, Tajima N, Baba S. Counting diabetes in the next millennium: application of capture-recapture technology. Diabetes Care 1993: 16: 528-534.
14. Ehehalt S, Dietz K, Willasch AM, Neu A; for the Baden-Wuerttemberg Diabetes Incidence Registry (DIARY) Group. Epidemiological perspectives on type 1 diabetes in childhood and adolescence in Germany: 20 years of the Baden-Württemberg Diabetes Incidence Registry (DIARY). Diabetes Care 2010: 33: 338-340.
15. Cardwell CR, Stene LC, Joner G et al. Birthweight and the risk of childhood-onset type 1 diabetes: a meta-analysis of observational studies using individual patient data. Diabetologia 2010: 53: 641-651.
16. The Diamond Project Group. Incidence and trends of childhood Type 1 diabetes worldwide 1990-1990. Diabet Med 2006: 23: 857-866.
17. Galler A, Stange T, Müller G et al. Incidence of childhood diabetes in children aged less than 15 years and its clinical and metabolic characteristics at the time of diagnosis: data from the Childhood Diabetes Registry of Saxony, Germany. Horm Res Paediatr 2010: 74: 285-291.
18. Rosenbauer J, Icks A, Giani G. Incidence and prevalence of childhood type 1 diabetes mellitus in Germany - model-based national estimates. J Pediatr Endocrinol Metab 2002: 15: 1497-1504.
19. Neu A, Feldhahn L, Ehehalt S, Hub R, Ranke MB; for the DIARY Group Baden-Wuerttemberg. Type 2 diabetes mellitus in children and adolescents is still a rare disease in Germany: a population-based assessment of the prevalence of type 2 diabetes and MODY in patients aged 0-20 years. Pediatr Diabetes 2009: 10: 468-473.
20. Carstensen B. Age-period-cohort models for the Lexis diagram. Stat Med 2007: 26: 3018-3045.
21. Patterson CC, Dahlquist GG, Gyürüs E, Green A, Soltész G; EURODIAB Study Group. Incidence trends for childhood type 1 diabetes in Europe during 1989-2003 and predicted new cases 2005-2020: a multicentre prospective registration study. Lancet 2009: 373: 2027-2033.
22. Pundziute-Lyckå A, Dahlquist G, Nyström L et al. The incidence of Type I diabetes has not increased but shifted to a younger age at diagnosis in the 0-34 years group in Sweden 1983-1998. Diabetologia 2002: 45: 783-791. [E-pub 8 May 2002].
23. Weets I, De Leeuw IH, Du Caju MV et al. The incidence of type 1 diabetes in the age group 0-39 years has not increased in Antwerp (Belgium) between 1989 and 2000: evidence for earlier disease manifestation. Diabetes Care 2002: 25: 840-846.
24. Ehehalt S, Popovic P, Muntoni S et al. Incidence of diabetes mellitus among children of Italian migrants substantiates the role of genetic factors in the pathogenesis of type 1 diabetes. Eur J Pediatr 2009: 168: 613-617.
25. Neu A, Willasch A, Ehehalt S, Kehrer M, Hub R, Ranke MB. Diabetes incidence in children of different nationalities: an epidemiological approach to the pathogenesis of diabetes. Diabetologia 2001: 44: B21-B26.